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Monthly Naps Competition, Thursday 15th October 2015


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4.25 Carl - By The Boardwalk - win at 7/4 bog wm hill

Handicap chase

My selection is very much a chaser on the upgrade having won 3 of his last 4 outings and would probably have won the other one if he hadn't have fallen

They gave him a break after that spill and he appears to have gotten over it as he reappeared with an effortless 9L win at Ayr

Up 34lbs since his winning run began but I don't think the handicapper has got him yet

Best RH, has won on stiff tracks, good going and class 3

Second favourite, Enchanted Garden, looks a doubtful stayer to me and is stepping up in trip on a stiff track

Loose Chips comes here after a break and usually needs a run to put him straight

Straidnahanna could be the main danger as he doesn't look badly weighted on his novice form but he also returns from a break having been well beaten on previous seasonal debuts and he might be best going LH on soft ground

I'd be surprised if my horse doesn't go off much shorter than the currently available 7/4

 

 

 

 

 

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Mr Hannon sends just the 3 runners for a day at the seaside, the pick is the paper outsider of his trio, the chestnut by Zebedee has done nothing lately so it's a tip to nothing, jockey Tom Marquand gets the leg up for the first time and strange things happen in this game when the pressure is off, even more so at big odds.

As the saying goes........................No guts No glory!

5:20 Brighton - Velociter.  1pt Win Bet @ 33/1 Paddy Power.

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5.50 Brighton - Pour La Victoire win @ 11/1 BetVictor

Course form is always a plus here and while a handful of these have won here, none have the record of Pour La Victoire. He is 4 from 9 around here and has only been out of the frame once before. He was poor lto but I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back at a course he clearly has a liking for, especially as this race doesn't look strong at all. He is 1lb higher than his last winning mark but I wouldn't say this mark is beyond him. The jockey has won on him before so there is no problem there.

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3.20 Punchestown

Mrs Mac Veale win 12/1 Bet 365

Not won a race since last November but has been running decently in higher class affairs than this. The 2nd place behind Misty Lady at Cork in a grade 3 handicap hurdle was a decent performance and the form of that race is working out well. Down in class and up in trip could make her competitive today

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B2.00 Golden Rosanna 33/1 William Hill

This is a speculative choice in a maiden, but there's been a little money for it which is always a good place to start. The main reasons why it might be overpriced though are based around the trainer and the breeding. The trainers runners usually need a run so the horses 7th of 7 on its debut doesn't worry me too much. The trainer has had 3 winners in their last 9 runners (0 for 51 prior to that) and this is only her 2nd runner at this course (the first was placed). Also the horses sire (Equiano) has progeny with a 5/16 (31%) record at this tricky course and backing them blindly would have more than doubled your money.

 

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3.30 Uttoxeter - Double Chocolate @17 Skybet

Ex- John O'Shea trained horse, ran well last 2 outing beyond 3m despite felling and PU (hampered) , good ground no worry.

Running for M Keighley today who has placed 4 from 6 runners in the last 2 weeks including a 50/1 shot, so hope he can bring back the horse to life and at 16/1 is too hard to dismiss.

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3.30 Uttoxeter - Double Chocolate @17 Skybet

Ex- John O'Shea trained horse, ran well last 2 outing beyond 3m despite felling and PU (hampered) , good ground no worry.

Running for M Keighley today who has placed 4 from 6 runners in the last 2 weeks including a 50/1 shot, so hope he can bring back the horse to life and at 16/1 is too hard to dismiss.

The price has changed when I was typing but still available with SJ and Boyle:hope

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4.05 Uttoxeter: Rye House 15/8 PP

Seems a fair price for a horse who ran Grams And Ounces so close last time out at Ludlow. That horse was in peak condition so it was a very creditable effort and the first sign of any real form from Rye House. A change of tactics looks the key here, the selection had been held up in his starts to date over hurdles but at Ludlow was sent to the front and it very nearly paid off. Allowed to race of the same mark here (up 7lbs in future) so really needs to take advantage in this similar contest. Johnson has been booked to do the steering again, which is a bonus too.

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9.15 Chelmsford

The Happy Hammer tends to turn up when he feels like it and is rarely a betting proposition these days.

Pendo has 1 win from 22 starts, he has been running ok of late without looking a real threat and is now 2lb above last winning mark.

Jam Jar is the least exposed of this field with just 4 runs, debut handicap run last time out was a little flat, handicapper quick to drop her 3lb which allows her to get into this 0-65 handicap now. Yard going pretty well at present and always pose a risk running one like this on the AW.

Venus Grace was only just reeled in by an inform sort last time out over CD, 3lb higher today and unlikely to get such a soft time again. Remains a maiden and needs to pull out a little more.

Alfaraaby is an intetresting runner from the Evans yard who usually have a good AW season, not beaten too far last 2 runs and now drops back dramatically in trip and first time blinkers reached for, remains a maiden but if the blinkers pull out a little more can see him going well at a price.

 

 

1pt win Alfaraaby 8/1 PP

 

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Brighton 1750 25/1 hill/stan james

 

Harris and Drowne both have higher average for the SP of their wins. Noverre to go has the second best prize money average. Drop in trip and lower weight might help. Odds seem to have been shortening too.

Noverre to go was the horse. It is mentioned in the comment but forgot to put it in the post header.

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2.30 - Brighton - Spirit Of Rosanna - 7/1 - Lads BOG

After a few dire runs, this horse showed signs of coming back to form on his first run over C & D last time out when beaten by less than 2 lengths. Runs off same mark of 48 today and with the same jockey on board as last time.

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Brighton 2:30 : Zebs Lad @ 5/1 Skybet win thanks

 

Zebs Lad....from Nikki Evans yard the 3yo goes here only for its third race on this track ,His first race at track was in August over 5.5f GF where he was held up and made effort inside two pole only to weaken inside final furlong to finish 5th of 8 runners beaten 5.75 lengths ,

His other race only came 9 days ago here 6f soft where it lost lead in last 100 yards to Tancred with Spirit Of Rosanna 3rd who's in this race as well,

Zebs Lad has been successful twice at 5f on good ground and on the all-weather and yard bring him back to the 5f with Tom Marquand keeping he ride who's claiming 3lbs and runs off same mark,

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3.30 Uttoxeter  DOUBLE CHOCOLATE  is interesting after a switch of stables, as although recent form isn't much use, previous form gives him every chance and he's dropped significantly in the weights.  No trip and ground worries, so if the new stable sparks a revival, which it regularly does, then he has every chance.

1pt win 12/1 Bet365 BOG

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Chelmsford 7.45 - Kingscroft

14/1 with Totesport

Fresh horse into Tom Dascombes stable following a win in claiming stakes at Wolverhampton earlier this month albeit only over 5 furlongs. Up 3lb in the handicap and a 7lb claimer replaced by Richard Kingscote. Never run at Chelmsford before but on form and likes coming from behind. This should be a live prospect.

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