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Monthly Tipsters Competition, Friday 9th October 2015


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3.45 Newmarket - She Is No Lady ew @ 22/1 BetVictor

Ralph Beckett has 2 in the race but it is the outsider of the 2 that I prefer.  SINL is progressing nicely having won twice this season and finished an okay 6th being a couple of these last time out.  Jamie Spencer gave the horse enough to do in that race and I would hope she would be ridden a little handier tomorrow.  Harry Bentley takes the ride and he is 1 from 1 on her so that can only be a positive.  She won't mind which way the ground goes being by the very talented Lope De Vega and I am hopeful of a good run.  She has a 7lb pull in the weights with Wonder Laish and Duretto and I don't think she should be around 5 times their price.  

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3.35 Newton Abbot: Cloud Creeper 7/2 Bet365/WH

I thought this one had an awful lot to do last time out in a handicap off his new mark and surprised me with a very solid performance and at one stage thought he looked to be going better than anything. He weakened to finish 3rd but here in a conditions event he his much better off with his rivals. The obvious threat is the bottom one Henryville but he's only ever won at Class 2 handicap level so is worth taking on with so little experience over fences. Good race either way.

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13:35 Newmarket Shadow Hunter 0.5pt e/w @ 16-1 Bet 365   

Highly tried 2yo from an unfashionable stable who will be assisted by top Irish jockey Pat Smullen. Winner of a listed race on her 3rd start this filly was subsequently outclassed in a group 2 race at Doncaster and the Dewhurst at Newmarket, the selection is value at 16-1 in this group 3 contest.

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2.20 - York - Polar Forest - 16/1 - Hills BOG

Polar Forest's record on soft ground reads 223111114 so obviously the ground should suit here. Last win came off a mark of 86 which is also highest winning mark, runs off 89 here so 3lbs higher. This suggests possibly weighted to his best but price looks good given the ground. Only finished a length behind Quick Wit last time who is much shorter in the market today.

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3:55 York : Judge ´n Jury @ 33/1 paddypower e/w thanks

Judge ´n Jury.....from Ronald Harris yard the 11yo may still have a win in him , Has won 12 races at 5f on ground varying from good to firm to soft and on the all-weather , He's a C&D winner and has been knocking at the door this year ,

He's had the 4 runs this year with two 3rd places a 6th place and last race 6 days ago at Ascot 5f good he finished 12th of 16 runners was up front till 2f pole then faded with Kieran Shoemark in saddle,

The yard change jockey to Ciaran Mckee who claims 5lb allowance

 

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Newm 3.10 - Beautiful Morning - win at 14/1 bog bet365

Fillies mile, group one

There's a few in here that already have group race form, including a group one winner in Minding. The horse that finished 2nd to her in the Moyglare won a group one on Arc day so that looks rock solid and she's the obvious favourite

I'm taking a chance that one of the less exposed maiden winners is something special. She won the big maiden race at the York Ebor meeting and straightaway connections said she was a Fillies Mile and Guineas horse

Beautifully bred as you might expect and cost a fortune........can she handle a step up in class ?

 

 

 

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Newton Abbot 1605 - Hija 40/1 stan james/will hill

 

Current trainer and previous ones all have higher average win SP than usual. Same goes for the jockey. Hija's only win came after a spell of 135 days rest at odds 80/1 on soft ground which makes this situation interesting: 75 days rest, soft ground, high odds and I am hoping for a repeat even though it sounds ridiculous.

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