THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

[benreado]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I quite like Rare Bob. It's been prepped for the race and trained by Dessie Hughes who has a runner come close almost every year. He's the trends pick as well. He meets 10 of 11 Bowles trends. The only trend he fails on is "14/15 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times". He's had 28 chases. That alone wouldn't put me off. He had a lovely prep run last month posting an RPR of 152 over an inadequate trip and he'll have come on for that run. Runs off a mark of 140 so clearly well handicapped. He's won a grade 1 chase so clearly has the class and 4th in an Irish national so clearly stays. He jumped like a stag last first few fences last year before being brought down (nothing the horse could've done to avoid it). Only negative you'd say is that he's 11 now - but a very well treated 11 year with lots of experience and no falls to his name. This might not be a "sexy" national horse but 22/1 could just be a decent each way price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

I quite like Rare Bob. It's been prepped for the race and trained by Dessie Hughes who has a runner come close almost every year. He's the trends pick as well. He meets 10 of 11 Bowles trends. The only trend he fails on is "14/15 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times". He's had 28 chases. That alone wouldn't put me off. He had a lovely prep run last month posting an RPR of 152 over an inadequate trip and he'll have come on for that run. Runs off a mark of 140 so clearly well handicapped. He's won a grade 1 chase so clearly has the class and 4th in an Irish national so clearly stays. He jumped like a stag last first few fences last year before being brought down (nothing the horse could've done to avoid it). Only negative you'd say is that he's 11 now - but a very well treated 11 year with lots of experience and no falls to his name. This might not be a "sexy" national horse but 22/1 could just be a decent each way price.

I really am 50-50 with this one. I read some of the form and start getting ready to back him and then I look at other bits and think again. Whatever happens Im sure you will get a good run for your money!

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Im in the sunnyhillboy camp, 25/1 is now a worthwhile investment. Cant knock him out the 5, AP made the wrong choice here IMO.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th FWIW given my form these last two days my final picks are Across The Bay (EW) and Cappa Bleu (Win) with a small saver on Join Together (Win). I expect Ballabriggs, Seabass and Rare Bob but Im not sure they will win and Im not sure the first two are value at the current place only price. Good luck with whatever you pick and hopefully all the horses and riders come back safe and sound!

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

I quite like Rare Bob. It's been prepped for the race and trained by Dessie Hughes who has a runner come close almost every year. He's the trends pick as well. He meets 10 of 11 Bowles trends. The only trend he fails on is "14/15 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times". He's had 28 chases. That alone wouldn't put me off. He had a lovely prep run last month posting an RPR of 152 over an inadequate trip and he'll have come on for that run. Runs off a mark of 140 so clearly well handicapped. He's won a grade 1 chase so clearly has the class and 4th in an Irish national so clearly stays. He jumped like a stag last first few fences last year before being brought down (nothing the horse could've done to avoid it). Only negative you'd say is that he's 11 now - but a very well treated 11 year with lots of experience and no falls to his name. This might not be a "sexy" national horse but 22/1 could just be a decent each way price.

you are right the horse does meet the trends up to 100/110 of those i use I will add it in to my selections :)

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

you are right the horse does meet the trends up to 100/110 of those i use I will add it in to my selections :)

40/1 last year(10yo), same ground tomorrow. Just watched last years race, and was brought down at the 5th...However did he convince over the first4. Im not in that camp. 20/1 is not big enough, for a horse who has never won on better than soft...They will go to quick for him IMO.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

you are right the horse does meet the trends up to 100/110 of those i use I will add it in to my selections :)

actually it met 90/110 of the trends as the age is over 10yo

[Tedthewolf]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th A couple of pounds on 5 of them win only on BF for me and let them run. 230.00 Any Currency~Will stay all day was going well here in Dec before being unseated worth another chance. 140.00 Auroras Encore~ Scottish national 2nd and has a very handy mark here a stable i like but they are out of form at the mo hence the price. 140.00 Becauseicouldntsee~ Could it be 3rd time lucky for this horse has fell last 2 nationals when tight enough price not fancied this time but if he can scramble over the fences is a dour stayer which is needed here. 55.00 Harry The Viking~This Nicholls horse looks to be a stayer has not showed a lot this term but been prepared for this. 160.00 Major Malarkey~ NTD has a really good chance with the top weight but if in the mood this horse could go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th As expected, On His Own available at 10s now. That's me enticed. Waited 12 months for this race having been gutted when he fell last year and fingers crossed can get my compensation! Post will be up in a bit.

[benreado]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

As expected' date=' On His Own available at 10s now. That's me enticed. Waited 12 months for this race having been gutted when he fell last year and fingers crossed can get my compensation! Post will be up in a bit.[/quote'] Ladbrokes and Hills going 12/1 the field tomorrow morning so probably best to wait until then.

[Lodge]

2 for me: Cappa Bleu - The selection of many so it seems. I backed him last year and he ran a great race. Back again off a similar weight he should go very well. 4pts @ 14 Betfair Quel Espirit - Has a fairly big weight to carry but he's clearly been campaigned with this as his target. Had a couple of falls earlier in his career but his jumping seems to have improved with experience. One of the likelier outsiders in my opinion 1pt @ 65 Betfair

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Ladbrokes and Hills going 12/1 the field tomorrow morning so probably best to wait until then.

Fair enough, cheers.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Hard at this stage to say anything particularly insightful or unique. The fancy is teaforthree, and a saver on ballabriggs. Teaforthree will stay all day. If it stays on its feet, I'd be confident it can go well. I could of course sit and pour over the form, for it to drop at the first in this kind of race. Really more a spectacle than anything else I'd say. Ballabriggs fits the bill of one of my sporting beliefs - if you're good enough, you're old enough. That runs both ways. Yes, he's a little older, but the ground should be fine for him, he knows the way around and stayed on well last year. If he gets a clean round...who knows. Regaining the crown is pretty rare, but this is as a true national horse and is as full of heart as they come. Think the fact my write up centres around the saver says an awful lot about the differences between who I think will win, and who I want to win. For what its worth, I'd be seriously tempted by the all to clear the first bet. Never likely, but with the new starting point, maybe worth a daft pound.

[mowgli77]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Race Preview: http://www.punterslounge.com/grand-national-betting-ballabriggs-has-the-course-form-and-the-engine-to-go-close-again-20130406 I would suggest backing each way with a bookie paying 5 or 6 places and my idea of the first 4 is as follows: Ballabriggs 20-1 Bet365 (5 places) Teaforthree 16-1 Bet365 (5 places) Imperial Commander 16-1 Bet365 (5 places) On His Own 9-1 Bet365 (5 places) The outsiders I feel will run well are: Soll 40-1 BetVictor (6 places) Across The Bay 40-1 BetVictor (6 places)

[fradog]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th looking for a good each way shout at decent price as my local boookies paying ew to 6th.will be backing baltzar king & ballybriggs on the nose.any suggestions. was lookin at nintheighminute but dont think he will stay the trip

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th 4.15 Cheltenham - 1pt win On His Own @ 12/1 (Hills) Backed this horse last year although he was inexperienced and young at the age of 8 so should be better suited this time around. May not have run over fences since but has a good hurdles win to prepare for this and looks to have a huge chance if staying on his feet to me. Ground doesn't really matter to him it seems and having watched the race over again last night from last year, the further they went, the better he went. He was right out the rear early on and took a while to warm to the fences but made some really tidy headway to travel strongly into Becher's on the second circuit. Didn't get a clear look at the fence as the loose horse blocked him off a bit and he came down. Obviously it's tricky being sure whether a horse will stand up - especially one who may be held-up but Ruby Walsh is on board this year and Willie Mullins thinks he's better than Hedgehunter. Has a decent weight, top connections and if getting round you'd fancy him to be bang there. 12/1 is definitely a solid price and fingers crossed he can gain compensation for last year should Balthazar King not win!

[robertob]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th 16.15 Aintree: Grand National Chase There were many good things to hear out of the Twiston-Davies camp regarding Imperial Commander's chance and indeed he looks to have a big chance of his handicap mark despite heading the weight list. He missed Cheltenham due to injury but should be fit, well and fresh now for the National and his run in the Argento Chase after a long break suggested he might be as good as ever. Distance is an unkown obviously but I think he should stay it. His jumping is top class anyway and I hope he get a clear round as then he will be definitely in the shake-up. Ballabriggs should be primed for this race as always. He won it in 2011 of only a 2lb higher mark and ran a huge race finishing 6th last year of an eight pounds higher mark. He had a decent enough prep at Kelso finishing 3rd in a Listed chase and with the ground to suit today he won't be far away yet again. Harry The Viking looks a bit a risky proposition but it's interesting that Paul Nicholls said that this has been the target for him all season, so I wouldn't read too much into the three poor forms this season. His most recent start at Cheltenham coming of a break of more then hundred days should ensure he's spot-on today and his staying ability is well known anyway. he's also still pretty lightly raced so he looks a big price and could go well. Imperial Commander @ 18/1 William Hill - 1pt e/w Ballabriggs @ 20/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts e/w Harry The Viking @ 40/1 VC - 0.5pts e/w

[beaker1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th John Smith’s Grand National (Grade 3) – Saturday 6th April With all of the last ten winners of the Grand National aged nine or older, this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well. The last time there was a winner younger than this was back in 2002 when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. In terms of this year’s field, Join Together, Harry The Viking, Soll, Viking Blond and Lost Glory make up a quintet of eight-year-olds, whereas Saint Are will be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940. Although given the strength of the trend, I think it would be somewhat foolish to consider any of those mentioned above. An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. The three horses lining up for this year’s renewal looking to buck this trend are Tatenen who only has a win over 2m6f to his name, 2m4f winner Quiscover Fontaine and former Coral Cup winner Ninetieth Minute, but with history against them I am happy to rule them out at this stage. There may be some of you who might include both Seabass and Becauseicouldntsee as they have yet to win over three miles under rules, but both can boast winning form in point-to-points over the same distance and as a result I am happy to give them the benefit of the doubt. Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics would suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was last year’s winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are nine of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of Imperial Commander, Joncol and Mumbles Head. The horse returning from the longest absence in the field is Jonjo O’Neill’s Lost Glory with 175 days having past since he won a handicap chase at Chepstow in October. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days. The amount of weight carried is often an important consideration when making a selection and this can be justified when observing that seven of the last ten winners carried 11st or less to victory. It is true that bigger weights have been carried to victory more recently in the Grand National but in general it is best to stick with 11st as the upper limit. Especially given that before the trio of Neptune Collonges, Don’t Push It and Hedgehunter carried 11st+ round, you have to go back to 1983 when Corbiere won with a weight of 11st 4lb on his back. In this year’s field, those attempting to defy this pattern appear as the first thirteen horses on your race card. Many of the fancied runners appear in this group with Teaforthree, Seabass, Join Together and Colbert Station needing to buck the trend. Perhaps the hardest task is reserved for former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander who with a weight of 11st 10lb, would be the first winner to carry such a burden since Freebooter carried 11st 11lb in 1950. It is something of a common theme that previous form at a course often improves the chances of a horse, especially over such unique obstacles as the Grand National fences. Six of the last ten winners had had at least one spin around Aintree in the past, with five of those having previous experience over the National fences. Only a quarter of those taking part this year have never run here in any contest including horses such as Quel Esprit, Teaforthree, Balthazar King and The Rainbow Hunter. You would have to say that you would rather side with a horse who has run here in the past, but given that there are stronger patterns it may be sensible to take it with a pinch of salt. The final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. However, the fact that seven of the last ten winners came from the first eight in the betting suggests that finding the winner may not be as difficult as it first seems. The market is obviously subject to fluctuation between now and 4:15 on Saturday, so it would seem inappropriate to mention any horses, but the betting trend is still a strong one and is worth some consideration. Shortlist CAPPA BLEU On His Own Chicago Grey Rare Bob Conclusion On His Own has led the ante-post market for the Grand National for several weeks now and looking at the trends, he looks well worth his place on the shortlist. He came here last year at the age of eight and was going well when falling on the second circuit. His preparations were completed in mid-February over hurdles, no doubt with his handicap mark in mind and has twice winner Ruby Walsh onboard to assist him. He has another year under his belt this time and looks set to go close. Chicago Grey is another horse to have had previous experience over the National fences albeit short-lived having been brought down at only the fifth fence last year. He certainly stays well having won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011 and as long he maintains his concentration when jumping, he could have a good chance for the Gordon Elliott team. Dessie Hughes’ Rare Bob departed at the same fence as Chicago Grey in last year’s renewal having been brought down. This was his first attempt at the Grand National havng had three previous runs at Aintree, one of which came when finishing fifth in the Becher in 2011. It is worth remembering that he was a high-quality novice chaser winning the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. His trainer has saddled a top-five finisher in two of the last three years and given that this is his only chance this year, it would be hard to see him too far away at the finish. The marginal preference is for CAPPA BLEU who like his colleagues on the shortlist matched all six of the trends at the time of writing. Despite being eleven years of age, Evan Williams’ gelding has only had nine runs over fences in his career to date. He ran a great race last year to finish fourth on only his seventh chase start and arrives here on a similar mark despite a good run behind Vino Griego last time out. He stays well having also finished third in the Welsh National and having been trained all year with this in mind, I fancy him to run a big race.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th 140.00 Auroras Encore~ Scottish national 2nd and has a very handy mark here a stable i like but they are out of form at the mo hence the price. :nana at last im a member of the 100/1 club took me over 6 years to get there but i've done it :beer

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

140.00 Auroras Encore~ Scottish national 2nd and has a very handy mark here a stable i like but they are out of form at the mo hence the price. :nana at last im a member of the 100/1 club took me over 6 years to get there but i've done it :beer

well done mate, welcome to the club

[staffy]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th what was the top 4 in the end?

[Boulder5111]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th cracking stuff Ted - take a bow :clap

[robertob]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

140.00 Auroras Encore~ Scottish national 2nd and has a very handy mark here a stable i like but they are out of form at the mo hence the price.

Well done Ted, some tipping and what the hell of a price! :notworthy

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Well done Ted.

[markmywords]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th :D Great stuff Ted.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Well done Ted, great stuff :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th You know what they say Ted, if you chuck enough arrows ...... Well done mate:clap

[Max2112]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th TBH they may as well take away the "fences" next year - they are just so tame and don't provide a test of jumping anymore - half the field just ploughed through every fence as if they weren't there and the animal rights do-gooders have made a mockery of the greatest race in the world - 9th fence before there was a faller?? I don't like to see horses falling but the race we all grew up with is now a sterile joke I know most will disagree with me but it's my opinion :) BTW well done to everyone who picked the winner and didn't back the mug horse :)

[cpo]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

TBH they may as well take away the "fences" next year - they are just so tame and don't provide a test of jumping anymore - half the field just ploughed through every fence as if they weren't there and the animal rights do-gooders have made a mockery of the greatest race in the world - 9th fence before there was a faller?? I don't like to see horses falling but the race we all grew up with is now a sterile joke I know most will disagree with me but it's my opinion :) BTW well done to everyone who picked the winner and didn't back the mug horse :)

Completely agree

[Paperclip]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th The National is not anything like it was - a unique race. If anything, they should make the fences BIGGER! That would slow the horses down to a sensible pace instead of moving the start, making the fences softer and lecturing the jockeys! I won't stop the world to watch it next year. P