THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

[Primevil]

27 Days to go, 84 left in, Albertas Run, current top weight 11-08 OR 160 :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Albertas Run will go up to 11stone 10 if left in :ok

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Personally I think WHAT A FREIND will end up being top weight, on 11-10 come the day, putting the weights up by 5lb... Suits me, I reckon i will be on the gamble of the race further down...Waiting for March 19th...second declaration stage.. Sorry only 73 gone forward as it stands...That will be down to around 55-60 on March 19th.:D

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I'm struggling to find much value at the moment. I thought potentially Midnight Chase but he ran a stinker on Tuesdy, even allowing for the soft ground. Alfie Sherrin could be worth a bet. Stayed on well in the Kim Muir yesterday and was a staying on 3rd in the Irish National last year.

[Elchubb]

Albertas run has been retired after Cheltenham! Quite like Alfie Sherrin but do you think he'll make the cut?

[Cashew]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Albertas run has been retired after Cheltenham! Quite like Alfie Sherrin but do you think he'll make the cut?

Not surprised. Sad way for the old boy to retire.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I didnt realise that about Albertas Run! It will be tight for Alfie Sherrin to get in but judging by recent years, he will be ok (just about). Only bet NRNB to be safe I reckon.

[BillyHills]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Official latest on Albertas Run and Frisco Depot; A decision has yet to be made over the future of three-time Cheltenham Festival winner Albertas Run but he will not be running in the John Smith's Grand National. There was talk among his connections after he was pulled up in the Ryanair Chase last week that he may have run his last race. The 12-year-old, twice a winner of the Ryanair and also the 2008 RSA Chase for trainer Jonjo O'Neill and owner Trevor Hemmings, was making his first start of the campaign. Hemmings' racing manager Mick Meagher said: "There's no point rushing into anything, but what I can tell you is that he has been taken out of the National." Another who will not be running in the Aintree showpiece is the Charlie Longsdon-trained Frisco Depot, who fell in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. "He's fine, there's nothing wrong with him, but he's not running in the National this year," said Longsdon. "He's not had a good preperation for a race like that but I hope he'll go there next year. I can't understand how he's fallen twice this year because he's a brilliant jumper at home. For some reason in a race he just has a habit of making a mistake."

[BillyHills]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Early thoughts on the Irish runners;

The Irish trained horses appear to be dominating the ante-post lists at the moment with five of the top six in the betting all intending to make the trip over for the contest, the 10/1 favourite with bookmakers

Paddy Power is On His Own trained by Willie Mullins and owned by the Wylie’s................... Selection: 1pt Each Way Chicago Grey 20/1 Stan James

Full Preview; http://www.aintreegrandnational.net/grand-national-betting-irish-runners-dominate-betting-for-2013-grand-national

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Top-weight Albertas Run, Quito De La Roque, Katenko, Calgary Bay, Roi Du Mee, Midnight Chase, Planet Of Sound, The Package, Problema Tic, Frisco Depot, Alfie Sherrin, Tartak, Summery Justice, Odysseas withdrawn from Grand National Alfie Sherrin out - goes for Fairyhouse instead :(

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Nice write up there BillyHills. I backed Chicago Grey last year but dont totally trust his jumping.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I would always worry about backing a hold up horse in that style of race, especially one that isnt the soundest of jumpers himself. Shame about Alfie Sherrin and Midnight Chase as I had a couple of quid on those two. I thought the latter would have had a very good chance with his running style and sound jumping. Im struggling to find an angle but I certainly wouldnt rule out Wyck Hill on genuinely soft ground.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th annoyed pipe took The Package to Chelts last week, i felt it had a good chance at Aintree this year and now isn't running as i assume it didnt come out of the race well. Will stick to the trends for the race which have done well over the past few years.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th 1) 51U/1P/-2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12-11-10 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies 2) P/33F0-0 WHAT A FRIEND 10-11-09 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls 3) 3PF-4PP WEIRD AL (IRE) 10-11-08 Brannon Dick Holden Donald McCain 4) 51/51-12 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10-11-07 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 5) 1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9-11-07 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 6) 40/-U312 BIG FELLA THANKS 11-11-06 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George 7) 0-1U355 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 11-11-06 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson 8) 1113-23 SEABASS (IRE) 10-11-06 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE 9) 1/46-P03 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 12-11-04 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain 10) P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10-11-04 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill 11) 11-0620 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9-11-03 T437 Rebecca Curtis 12) 3-11201 ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) 9-11-02 Scotch Piper Syndicate Donald McCain 13) 1P3-02P JOIN TOGETHER (IRE) 8-11-02 Ian Fogg & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls 14) 130654 BOB LINGO (IRE) 11-11-01 J P McManus Tom Mullins IRE 15) 413-5211 COLBERT STATION (IRE) 9-11-01 J P McManus Ted Walsh IRE 16) 214122 TOFINO BAY (IRE) 10-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 17) 2P1536 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 11-11-00 Goat Racing Syndicate Thomas Cooper IRE 18) P1/B1F-1 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 9-11-00 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 19) 0-35233 JONCOL (IRE) 10-10-13 Kay Browne Paul Nolan IRE 20) 10511-P LION NA BEARNAI (IRE) 11-10-13 The Lock Syndicate Tom Gibney IRE 21) P0F1-12 BALTHAZAR KING (IRE) 9-10-12 The Brushmakers Philip Hobbs 22) 6F2264 BOSTONS ANGEL (IRE) 9-10-11 Elder Scouller Jessica Harrington IRE 23) 1334-22 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 11-10-11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams 24) 2/4-4U60 OSCAR TIME (IRE) 12-10-11 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & Steve Broughton Martin Lynch IRE 25) 44001-00 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 12-10-10 Mr & Mrs Peter Douglas Peter Bowen 26) 31P/PP-4 QUINZ (FR) 9-10-10 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs 27) 15U-606 TATENEN (FR) 9-10-10 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe 28) 1/U121/5- BESHABAR (IRE) 11-10-09 Middleham Park Racing X & Ann Burrows Tim Vaughan 29) 423F-01 TREACLE (IRE) 12-10-09 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE 30) 011611 LOST GLORY (NZ) 8-10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill 31) U01-F430 SAINT ARE (FR) 7-10-08 David Fox Tim Vaughan 32) P-P1440 SWING BILL (FR) 12-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe 33) 1F2-110 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9-10-08 J P McManus David Bridgwater 34) B-0U631 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 10-10-07 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE 35) P-52202 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 9-10-07 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 36) 010F-60 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 9-10-07 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE 37) F-63PP5 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 10-10-06 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE 38) 12P-P00 HARRY THE VIKING 8-10-06 Sir Alex Ferguson, Ged Mason, R Wood & P Done Paul Nicholls 39) 3B0-643 RARE BOB (IRE) 11-10-06 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE 40) 04-311P4 THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9-10-06 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership Kim Bailey 41) 236026 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) 9-10-05 Sue Smith Sue Smith 42) 1133FP MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 12-10-04 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen 43) F2PP-44 PEARLYSTEPS 10-10-04 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly 44) 0P45F5 AURORAS ENCORE (IRE) 11-10-03 D Pryde, J Beaumont & D P van der Hoeven Sue Smith 45) 3F6042 NINETIETH MINUTE (IRE) 10-10-03 Dermot Cox Tom Taaffe IRE 46) P11420 TARQUINIUS (FR) 10-10-02 Mary Furlong Gordon Elliott IRE 47) 614U40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 10-10-00 Cash Is King Martin Keighley 48) 2P-265P MAJOR MALARKEY (IRE) 10-9-13 Baker, Dodd & Cooke Nigel Twiston-Davies 49) (0)6U1/-50 POKER DE SIVOLA (FR) 10-9-13 David Johnson Ferdy Murphy 50) /5000/P-P BACKSTAGE (FR) 11-9-12 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE 51) 621B-001 SOLL 8-9-12 Derrick Mossop Jo Hughes 52) F10203 ROMANESCO (FR) 8-9-11 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 53) 023P25 VIKING BLOND (FR) 8-9-11 Caroline Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 54) 2161-30 CLOUDY LANE 13-9-10 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain 55) 000165 PENTIFFIC (NZ) 10-9-08 P Sinn, P Lawrence, L Sutcliffe, M Smith Venetia Williams 56) 0/44-060 GULLIBLE GORDON (IRE) 10-9-06 Yeh Man Partnership Peter Bowen 57) P-22150 MORTIMERS CROSS 12-9-06 John Needham John Needham

[NewPunter]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Any chance you could post the trends up please Bowles? Got a few days off work this week so looking into the National to see if theres any value left

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

annoyed pipe took The Package to Chelts last week, i felt it had a good chance at Aintree this year and now isn't running as i assume it didnt come out of the race well. Will stick to the trends for the race which have done well over the past few years.

I tried to use the stats for last year and they didnt do so well! However, I see yours for Cheltenham were different to the ones on ATR so I will definitely be having a look!

[BillyHills]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Any chance you could post the trends up please Bowles? Got a few days off work this week so looking into the National to see if theres any value left

These were Bowles' main trends last year, just add the 2012 result on;

13/14- Won at least over 3m 13/14 - Won class 1 or 2 chase (8 at class 1) 13/14 - OR 135+ 13/14 - Aged 8-11 13/14 - 3-6 runs in season

14/14 - Ran within 48 days If you just put National trends in google you will come up with stacks of similar info, no secrets with the GN.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th [h=1]Aintree bans firm ground for the Grand National[/h][h=2]Aintree has run its last fast-ground Grand National. Starting from this year’s race, on April 6, the course will be watered as a matter of routine to provide going that is never any quicker than 'good to soft’.[/h] Record breakers: the course record set by Mr Frisk (Marcus Armytage, left) in 1990 is now unlikely to be broken Photo: ALLSPORT By HOTSPUR (JA McGrath) 10:00PM GMT 20 Mar 2013 Comment In the most significant move yet to minimise the risk to horses and riders, the Aintree executive is effectively reshaping the race to fit modern requirements, at the same time trying to retain the character of jump racing’s ultimate challenge. There will never be a repeat of Mr Frisk’s 1990 triumph when, on ground officially termed 'firm’, the Kim Bailey-trained gelding set a record time of 8min 47.8sec. Lord Daresbury, the chairman of Aintree, said that a commissioned statistical report had supported the intuition that there was a direct link between injury to horses and the state of the ground. The quicker the ground, the faster the pace, which led to a greater risk of injury in the event of a fall. “We looked closely at all the statistics, and in discussion with trainers, we came more and more to the conclusion that ensuring ground that was always on the soft side of 'good’ was the right thing to do,” he said. Before Mr Frisk, the 'firm’ going winners over the previous five decades were Lucius (1978), Rag Trade (1976), Red Rum (1973) and Nicolaus Silver (1961). [h=2]Related Articles[/h]

• Twiston-Davies sets sights on top rank with The New One 19 Mar 2013
• McNamara 'stable’ ahead of further scans 18 Mar 2013
• Curtis learns lesson for National 18 Mar 2013
• Bobs Worth finished for the season 17 Mar 2013
• McNamara injuries cast shadow over Festival 16 Mar 2013
• Henderson posts 50th in style 15 Mar 2013

Twelve of the 22 winners since Mr Frisk were successful on ground described as 'good’. In future, there will be no winners on that type of surface. Lord Daresbury was aware of possible criticism, particularly from owners and trainers of horses with a preference for fast ground. “There have been contrary individual voices from that direction,” he confirmed. “But when reality and logic starts sinking in, it should be different. Everybody is doing everything possible for the success of the Grand National, and I think most involved are taking more responsibility themselves for the race. There have been some critics who have said we are lowering the fences, but that is not the case.” While they have not cut the size of the jumps, officials have introduced a softer core to the fences, with a view to lowering the risk of injury to horses who might plough through them. The revelation regarding the future watering policy is the most significant piece of news regarding the future of the big race. Changes to the course, at Becher’s and elsewhere, the reduction in distance of the run to the first fence, and calls for fewer runners, all amount to cosmetic alterations. However, a policy to ensure that the going is always on the soft side is a positive step that should be applauded. In the long term, it will subtly change the profile of a would-be Grand National horse. However, it might also ensure the casualty rate is lowered and the future of the race guaranteed.

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Well , The weather forcast for the next 16 days...Couple of days of snow..Then from sunday for 7 days, High pressure dominates, cold but sunny, But from April 1st for the next 6 days, Low pressure is in command,,,This means rain.:ok

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Any chance you could post the trends up please Bowles? Got a few days off work this week so looking into the National to see if theres any value left

will take me a few days to go through the 57 runners, i have a 100pt selection policy with 10 key trends to work to. I then break the field down.

These were Bowles' main trends last year, just add the 2012 result on;

13/14- Won at least over 3m 13/14 - Won class 1 or 2 chase (8 at class 1) 13/14 - OR 135+ 13/14 - Aged 8-11 13/14 - 3-6 runs in season

14/14 - Ran within 48 days If you just put National trends in google you will come up with stacks of similar info, no secrets with the GN.

Last year we were pipped on the line, couldn't believe i had lost to Neptune who broke a few trends.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Three pretty strong trends that I have picked up from another website: 1. Had a chase win in last 15 months, or in last 6 chases (21/22) or (39/42). The three exceptions had form in previous Grand Nationals 2. RP Comments for chases over 26f feature phrases "staying on" kept on" or something to suggest horse was staying on at the end. I havent checked myself but apparently, this features in 33% of all winners races. 3. Has either won over 26f+ or placed over 28f+ This leaves us with 13 from the original list of 57. Ballabriggs Sunnyhillboy Teaforthree Across the Bay Join Together Lion Na Bearnai Balthazar King Cappa Bleu Beshabar Chicago Grey Any Currency Poker de Sivola Mortimers Cross

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th 11 days to go. TONY McCOY will ride either Sunnyhillboy or Colbert Station in the John Smith's Grand National after he narrowed down owner JP McManus's six-strong squad of contenders to two. McCoy, who won his only National on the McManus-owned Don't Push It in 2010, now has to decide whether to side with last year's second Sunnyhillboy or the progressive Colbert Station.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Beshabar and Prince de Beauchene both ruled of the race today through injury. My top 5 are: Cappa Bleu Teaforthree Ballabriggs Join Together Across the Bay

[NewPunter]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I keep coming back to Teaforthree; anyone put me off?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I'm in that nasty situation where I'm a massive fan of On His Own (see 2012) but how can I justify backing him at 7s?! Impossible really for all I think he's near enough as bombproof as you can get around here (only missing ingredient for me is he hasn't completed over these fences before). Okay he's only won over 3m1f in the past but to the eye he stays all day and was running a stormer here last year. The way he moved through the field was impressive having not warmed to his task in the very early stages. An unexpected Graded victory over hurdles as a prep and represents Mullins and Walsh. I guess I'm going to have to look elsewhere for some value but he's definitely the most likely winner in my eyes. To say he was only 8 last year too. In hindsight should have taken 12s when I could but even that's a bit short for me in this race. I might just have a small bet on him if I can get 8/1 and have another in the field just so I'm not gutted if he wins!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Oh and if Mullins thinks he's better than Hedgehunter you have to be in with a chance.

[AHughes]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Been saying Join Together ever since he came 2nd to Hello Bud in the Becher where he came from absolute knowhere to kick in on the last few furlongs and was unlucky to be beaten by a neck by the 14 year old. Nicholls main hope for the National was hampered last time out also after Night in Milan fell and he never really recovered and eventually pulled up.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

I'm in that nasty situation where I'm a massive fan of On His Own (see 2012) but how can I justify backing him at 7s?! Impossible really for all I think he's near enough as bombproof as you can get around here (only missing ingredient for me is he hasn't completed over these fences before). Okay he's only won over 3m1f in the past but to the eye he stays all day and was running a stormer here last year. The way he moved through the field was impressive having not warmed to his task in the very early stages. An unexpected Graded victory over hurdles as a prep and represents Mullins and Walsh. I guess I'm going to have to look elsewhere for some value but he's definitely the most likely winner in my eyes. To say he was only 8 last year too. In hindsight should have taken 12s when I could but even that's a bit short for me in this race. I might just have a small bet on him if I can get 8/1 and have another in the field just so I'm not gutted if he wins!

Yeah, i keep coming back to On his Own as well. ideal horse to back now,will go on any going.but as you say all the value has gone.you would think it can't get any smaller than 6/1 or 7/1 and on the day the market always changes dramatically, you can also get first 6 ew as well. i will leave it to the day of the race if i can get 9/1 which occasionally happens as anti post fav drift on the day i will get on,if it stays around 7/1 then i think i will leave it. I can't believe Across the Bay is 40/1 and had an ew first 5. also like Sunny hill boy as well but not even sure if it will line up so i will leave that one closer to the day as well.

[beaker1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th a few trends for the race positive trends horses aged 10+ have won 15 of the 23 runnings [and 18 of the last 19 were aged 9+] 8 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season look to a horse likely to be ridden prominetly previous experience over these fences has been handy though not crucial the top 8 in the betting have a better than most believe negative trends no winner since 1970 has failed to win over at least 3 miles no 7 yr old has won for 73 yrs treat horses comming of a long break with caution a hard race at the cheltenham festival often leaves its mark only 1 of the last 14 winners had won more than once earlier in the season

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

a few trends for the race positive trends horses aged 10+ have won 15 of the 23 runnings [and 18 of the last 19 were aged 9+] 8 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season look to a horse likely to be ridden prominetly previous experience over these fences has been handy though not crucial the top 8 in the betting have a better than most believe negative trends no winner since 1970 has failed to win over at least 3 miles no 7 yr old has won for 73 yrs treat horses comming of a long break with caution a hard race at the cheltenham festival often leaves its mark only 1 of the last 14 winners had won more than once earlier in the season

Much appreciated.:ok