THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Era, had two good bets fav's over the past couple of days, Hunt Ball and Solwhit, you prob saw from my facebook wall? :D I seem to have better luck when I don't post a fancy on PL mate :lol Speaking of Mon Mome, my girlfriend's sister placed her first ever bet at the age of 28 on Mon Mome, £10 e/w @ 100/1, I nearly died.. She liked the name.. :eyes

:rollin I was at Aintree that year. Remember being in one of the bars seeing some giddy women popping champagne. They were then SINGING the name of the horse - and couldn't even get the name right! Such injustice in the world :@ :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Aye' date=' have to agree with Ted on this occasion. If you studied hard enough, Auroras Encore would have been a lively outsider. Gets the trip, 6 pounds lower, seems to always come good around April etc, sometimes we all get distracted by price![/quote'] On a more on topic note, I looked at the horse's form after the race expecting to see naff all but to be fair he did have some credentials so I wasn't totally disillusioned with the result.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

On a more on topic note' date=' I looked at the horse's form after the race expecting to see naff all but to be fair he did have some credentials so I wasn't totally disillusioned with the result.[/quote'] Yes i agree,,looks like he is trained for the day. same goes for many a national winner, trouble is knowing which day it is.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I think that we need to get a sense of perspective here, it's one race a year, I'm a bit longer in the tooth than most on here & I've not yet had 40 goes at finding the winner. There are some people that have more bets than that in a week, if you don't like the race then leave it alone, however I think there's more too it than that. The question was asked in the BBOTD thread "Why are so many people picking a selection in the National"? The answer is simple because if you find the winner there is the kudos that follows, why do you think the the tipsters in all the major daily papers have their nap in the race? So you can get headlines like "Templegit or Nosebag naps National winner" are we any different? The race is now unique in that it the only one that people who are not into horse racing show any interest in, the only other one was the Derby but that is no longer the case. The typical scenario in the days leading up to the National is that people who know you are into racing will ask you "What's going to win the National"? Does this happen with any other race, I'm not expecting my next door neighbour to ask me what's going to win the Scottish National this weekend coming like he did this last weekend. This then changes in the days after the National when the question then becomes "Did you back the National winner"? The person asking the question usually has that look on their face, the one that means your just slightly better than a child molester or an axe murderer, don't tell me you've not seen that one on the Mother in laws face. If you say no then you know what's coming, "You can't beat the Bookie" "Never see a poor bookie" etc. In other words their Daughter/Son is shacked up with a complete wastrel. There are though two sides to the coin, note what happens when you say "Yes I backed the National winner" in an instant the conversation changes to Uncle Fred's bunions or the like. But you don't want that, you are the clever sod that fleeced the bookies & you want your 15 minutes of fame, it ain't going to happen though. I suspect that the ones that don't like the race are the ones that have never backed the winner & therefore can't bask in the fleeting glory. The ones that like the race have had their moment in the sun. Aftertiming. A few years ago I went on a stable visit just after the National. Afterwards we went to a cafe for bacon butties & a drink & I got sat with a couple from Newcastle. She says to me "Did you back the the National winner"? A slight difference in that liking a flutter herself she didn't sport the look. "Yes I did" I replied. "Ooh really, you backed Mon Mome" "Yes I backed Mon Mome the 100/1 winner of the Grand National........... only it was last year" Rio.

[nickf88]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I apologise if it sounded like I was trying to show off that I backed the National winner, that wasn't my intention. My intention of my post was to say that the horse wasn't a 80/1-100/1 or 66/1 shot in my opinion, hence why I backed it. If it had fallen, pulled up or won like it did I still would have thought it represented a value bet in a very competitive and tricky race and the fact it won was a huge slice of luck.

[Aidymac]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Good post Rio. However, I had Numbersixvalverde backed when he won, and had Ballabriggs in 2011, yet still think the race is a farce. I see the National as a way of having a fun mug bet once a year. My main reason for having a bet is to go up to the local bookies and watch the crowds of people create a nice buzz in the place! I think if someone expects to back the winner of the national, they would want their heads checked. I enjoyed the race a lot more a few years ago, when all the tree huggers didn't have their say. The way things are going, it will be a 4m 4f flat race. Not a single horse fell this year til they got to Bechers, unheard of. Yes, the Grand National is a dangerous race. The owners, trainers, and jockeys know that. Horse's die week in week out in horse racing, yet if it happens in the National, all hell breaks loose. This year, for me anyways, it felt like a big circus, and if I had backed Aurora's Encore, i would still feel the same way.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th we dont need to see horses fall for the race to be a spectacle though, what if all 40 got round we would have a few pulled up and a large finishing group of horses but inevitbaly there will be falls just like there are at every NH meeting in the country. Normally when 1 falls at the 1st it brings down a few others, that didnt happen this year and the field were spread out a bit also. As its been said, its 1 race a year and the public love it. the bookies love it too personally i have backed Red rum in 1977, Maori venture, llittle polvier, esha ness (!), Dont push it & Ballabriggs. 6 winners in 35 years! But i still have a go.

[Aidymac]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th No horse fell at the first this year because they made the course 90 yards shorter, so they come to the first at a slower pace. At the end of the day, the Grand National is supposed to be a war of attrition, and it is fast losing that nametag.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

No horse fell at the first this year because they made the course 90 yards shorter' date=' so they come to the first at a slower pace. At the end of the day, the Grand National is supposed to be a war of attrition, and it is fast losing that nametag.[/quote'] Now that I would have to disagree with, it was still a fair old run to the first & having just watched it again they don't look like they're dawdling to me. I think it's just pure coincidence that nothing fell at the first, along with the softer core to the fences of course. What I do agree with is... . I was at Doncaster a few weeks back when two horses were killed, one of which was Darlan & the obstacle that claimed him was nothing compared to the supposed soft fences of last Saturday & apart from the trade press hardly a peep. I've personally been involved with two horses who broke a leg on the gallops & had to be destroyed, then of course there's such as Brindisi Breeze who got out of his paddock & was killed on the road by a tanker. You don't have to be doing anything dangerous if your numbers up it's up. All this of course is opinion & of all the sports this is the one driven more by opinion than any other, without opinion you would have no betting market for a start. I've posted in my thread that I prefer the flat to the jumps, I love the jumps but I like the flat better, now here's another opinion. In around a months time the racing world will be watching the Chester May festival, in terms of a farce this course takes some beating, it's nothing more than a glorified dog track & given the choice between betting there or in the Grand National then the National wins hands down & this is the opinion of a bloke who loves his flat racing. I can still though recognize the history of the place & the traditions, where else would you get a wacking great cheese as part of the winners prize? What I can do is keep my money in my pocket & would again respectfully suggest that anybody who doesn't like the National does the same. Rio.

[cpo]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Fair play to all of you that backed the winner... I'm only jealous!

[Tedthewolf]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

I saw old GingerTipster had him backed, on his TRF thread. His National write up was a good read.

Just had a nosey over in TFR bloody hell he put some work/time into that a damn good read indeed. Old Ginger is a hero over there :lol good luck to him.

[Max2112]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th The only reason the do-gooder activists (fanatics?) haven't had their way is the pressure from the bookies on the government reminding them of the massive amount generated by the Levy on just this race alone ... probably nothing to to with the 200% over-round though ;)

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Following the result on Saturday, there’s some feelings on here saying that the race is a lottery or a farce. Don’t get me wrong, the Grand National is an open race and it’s very difficult to find the winner, however I don’t think it’s the “lottery” that people make it out to be. I just treat it like any other handicap and look for horses that have the characteristics required to win the race. I don’t always win, but I do usually get one in the frame. Although I didn’t follow this structure rigidly, I think the following helps demonstrate that in reality, roughly only a quarter of the field can win. Due to the uniqueness of the race, if you apply a couple of variables to the field, then you can reduce the field to only 10-12 realistic winners and suddenly you have a fighting chance. Just as a demonstration: Its the longest race in thje calendar so clearly, you need a horse that has shown a degree of stamina to last 4m 4f. I use the criteria of “has won over 26f or placed over 28f”. This year, that eliminates 18 of the field and you are left with 22 horses. Imperial Commander, What a Friend, Big Fella Thanks, Seabass, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree, Across the Bay, Join Together, Balthazar King, Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Lost Glory, Chicago Grey, Becauseicouldntsee, Rare Bob, Auroras Encore, Any Currency, Major Malarkey, Viking Blond, Gullible Gordon, Mortimers Cross Then take a look at the horses age and experience. Too young, they don’t have th experience. Too old, they are too slow and exposed. Horse aged between 9 and 11 dominate. 8 year olds need a lot of experience in top class races to feature (Bindaree), only consider 12 year olds if they have shown form in the race previously (Amberleigh House). Forget anything else. Now we are down to 18. What a Friend, Big Fella Thanks, Seabass, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree, Across the Bay, Balthazar King, Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Chicago Grey, Becauseicouldntsee, Rare Bob, Auroras Encore, Any Currency, Major Malarkey, Gullible Gordon Next, remove those lacking class – Ok, it’s not the Hennessy but as far as handicaps go, the Grand National is a decent standard of race. So I remove anything that hasn’t won at Class 1 level. We are now down to a shortlist of 13 and it is here you need to start using a bit of personal judgement and flexibility. What a Friend, Big Fella Thanks, Seabass, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree, Across the Bay, Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Chicago Grey, Becauseicouldntsee, Rare Bob, Auroras Encore Personally, i removed: What a Friend – appeared to hate it last time, looked poorly handicapped Big Fella Thanks – Beaten twice in race, stamina concerns, badly handicapped Seabass – Placed horses have a poor record as they are lumbered with loads more weight next year SHB – Same as Seabass Becauseicouldntsee – Has run in race twice - fallen both times. Chicago Grey – Personally consider him a dodgy jumper, I don’t think he won a great race last time. This leaves 7 and this shortlist includes the first 5 home. Teaforthree Cappa Bleu Ballabriggs Across the Bay Oscar Time Rare Bob Auroras Encore I’m not going to sit here and say I expected Aurora’s Encore to win, he wasn’t even in my predicted first 4, but I did rate him as an outsider with a squeak who may make the first 6. Whilst there were other horses lining up who had a better chance, he did have the credentials to get involved.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Good post AK. I think sometimes its easy to lose sight of the fact its just a big field, long distance handicap.

[Michelekelvin]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Thanks Bowles for all your work..Nice write up there BillyHills..!!