THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

[bowles10]

Will be doing my trends tomorrow May as well use good fri for something useful

[cpo]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Been saying Join Together ever since he came 2nd to Hello Bud in the Becher where he came from absolute knowhere to kick in on the last few furlongs and was unlucky to be beaten by a neck by the 14 year old. Nicholls main hope for the National was hampered last time out also after Night in Milan fell and he never really recovered and eventually pulled up.

I will be backing Join Together as well. This horse was joint favourite for the race before his run at Doncaster, which can be ignored. You can get 18/1 for him, which is huge! He is by Old Vic whose progeny have an unbelievable recent record in the race. The other one I like is Cappa Bleu. Has a big pull in the weights with those that finished ahead of him last year and he ran a nice race last time out to set him up for this.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th GRAND NATIONAL SATURDAY 6th April - AINTREE These are pretty conclusive in my opinion 14/15- Won at least over 3m 14/15 - Won class 1 or 2 chase (9 at class 1) 14/15 - OR 135+ 14/15 - Aged 8-11 13/15 - 3-6 runs in season 14/15 - Ran within 48 days Looking at the above trends, we have a points scoring system. At round 1, horses can score a max of 60pts (10pts per trend) – keep only those with 50+ Imperial Commander = 30 What a Friend = 50 (runs) Weird Al = 50 (days) Quel Espirit = 50 (days) Prince Du Beauchene NR Roberto Goldback = 60 Big Fella Thanks = 60 Seabass = 40 (runs & distance) Sunnyhillboy = 40 (runs & days) Ballabriggs = 50 (age) Tea for three = 50 (days 1 day) Across the bay = 50 (days 1 day) Join Together = 60 Bob Lingo = 40 (age & runs) Colbert Station = 40 (OR & Days) Tofino bay = 50 (runs) On his own = 50 (runs) Forpadytheplasterer = 60 Joncol = 50 (days) Lion Na Bearnai = 40 (days and runs) Balthazar king = 40 (days and runs) Bostons Angel = 50 (runs) Cappa Bleu = 40 (days 1 day and runs) Oscar time = 50 (age) Quinz = 50 (runs) Tatenan = 50 (distance) Always waining = 40 (age & runs) Beshabar = 40 (days and runs) Treacle = 40 (runs & age) Lost glory = 50 (days) Wyck Hill = 60 Swing Bill = 50 (age) Saint Are = 50 (age) Magnamity = 40 (days & distance) Chicago Grey = 60 Quiscover Fontaine = 40 (distance & class) Rare Bob = 60 The Rainbow Hunter = 40 (days 1 day & class) Becauseicouldntsee = 40 (class & distance) Harrytheviking = 50 (class) Mr Moonshine = 50 (distance) Mumbles Head = 40 (age & days) Pearlysteps = 40 (runs & class) Auroras encore = 50 (runs) Ninetieth minute = 30 (distance, OR & class) Tarquinnius = 30 (OR, runs & class) Any Currency = 40 (OR & class) Major Malarkey = 40 (OR & class) Poker De sivola = 30 (runs, days & OR) Soll = 40 (class & OR) Backstage = 40 (OR & runs) Viking Blond = 30 (Days, OR & class) Romanesco = 40 (OR & class) Cloudy lane = 20 (days, runs, OR & age) Pentific, Gullible Gordon and Mortimers cross don’t score any higher than 40 That is 31 horses removed, moving onto stage 2 for the remaining 26 13/13 - At least 10 runs over fences 14/15 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times 8/10 - ran over hurdles this season 13/13 - won a chase worth £17k to the winner All of these factors seem to be key these days as its based on experience etc, so i will discount anything less than a score of 90 What a Friend = 50 (runs) + 30 (hurdles) = 80 Weird Al = 50 (days) + 30 (hurdles) = 80 Quel Espirit = 50 (days) + 20 (hurdles & runs) = 70 Roberto Goldback = 60 + 30 (hurdles) = 90 Big Fella Thanks = 60 + 30 (hurdles) = 90 Ballabriggs = 50 (age) + 30 (hurdles) = 80 Tea for three = 50 (days 1 day) + 30 (hurdles) = 80 (leave in as only 1 day out) Across the bay = 50 (days 1 day) + 40 = 90 Join Together = 60 + 10 = 70 Tofino bay = 50 (runs) + 10 = 60 On his own = 50 (runs) + 20 = 70 Forpadytheplasterer = 60 + 40 = 100 Joncol = 50 (days) + 40 = 90 Bostons Angel = 50 (runs) + 40 = 90 Oscar time = 50 (age) + 40 = 90 Quinz = 50 (runs) + 30 = 80 Tatenan = 50 (distance) + 30 = 80 Lost glory = 50 (days) + 30 = 80 Wyck Hill = 60 + 10 = 70 Swing Bill = 50 (age) + 30 = 80 Saint Are = 50 (age) + 30 = 80 Chicago Grey = 60 + 40 = 100 Rare Bob = 60 + 20 = 80 Harrytheviking = 50 (class) + 0 = 50 Mr Moonshine = 50 (distance) + 30 = 80 Auroras encore = 50 (runs) + 20 = 70 So into the final round we have 9 horses of which only 2 reached the highest score of 100/100 These are Chicago Grey Forpadytheplasterer Of the others, we shouldn't discount their score of 90, however reasons for not going forward are: Oscar time (Age) Roberto Goldback (no hurdle run) Big Fella Thanks (no hurdle run) Tea for three – keep Across the bay – keep Joncol – keep Bostons angel – keep One final stat worth including is 14/14 - No more than 2 falls in chasing career (falls not BD) This leaves a final shortlist of : Forpadytheplasterer (no falls) Tea for three (no falls) Across the bay (1 UR) Joncol (no falls) Bostons angel (1 F, 1 UR) Leaving my final selections : Forpadytheplasterer 5pts ew 66/1 Bet365 1st 5 Tea for three 5pts ew 16/1 Bet3651st 5 Across the bay 5pts ew 33/1 Bet365 1st 5 Joncol 5pts ew 50/1 Bet365 1st 5 Bostons angel 5pts ew 66/1 Bet365 1st 5 However you decide to take the trends, i enjoy pulling them together and comparing against other trends which are often looking at different factors. Neptune Collonges had only ran once last season and had more than 2 falls in its career. It didn’t make the shortlist. The only one i may be worried about doing the same this year is What a Friend so that one may get added!!

[laddo]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Thanks Bowles for all your work (as usual). Please note folks that you may want to check Betvictor who are offering 6 places at 1/4 odds, with the same odds as Bet365 for Bostons Angel and Forpadydeplasterer for example.

[NewPunter]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Interesting as ever Bowles, out of interest do you know who you did have on last years shortlist?

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Interesting as ever Bowles' date=' out of interest do you know who you did have on last years shortlist?[/quote'] http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/126239-Grand-National-Stats-and-Trends-Thread link to last years race Sunnyhillboy just touched off, winner, winner didnt hit my shortlist but still matched a number of trends as they often do

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I wish the racing sites or the online bookies would give you info on double engaged horses on the form sites,more so with Cheltenham, the bookies have the 1st and 2nd favs priced up in the Topham yet it looks certain both will go for the National.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Bizarre scenes on betfair last night with Across the Bay, drifted to prices in the region of 200/1+. Clearly i panicked and layed off as much as I could thinking he was out. I wake up this morning and he is available to back at 48.0 again. Who on earth was laying him at 200.0??? Its ruined my exposure to him on my National thread. I shouldn't get sucked in my market movements really but the drift last night seemed pretty conclusive.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th i like Join Together due to Experience over National fences and his breeding but cant help thinking it is a year too early for him. the last 8yo to win as a last season novice was Bindaree, so it is possible and we may even be due a winner with that profile. However, id be careful with compariosns between Bindaree and Join Together. Bindaree may well have been 8 and a novice last season but he had run 5th in a Hennessy and 3rd in the Welsh National. Bindaree had also run 15 times compared with Join Together’s 8 chases so far. Join Together’s profile is nowhere hear as complete and I think he will be a better bet next season. In fact, looking at Bindaree’s profile, with the Hennessy 5th and a place in the Welsh National, he bears more resemblance to T43 than Join Together. The only thing i’d say is that Bindaree looked better treated that T43 is this year. i.e. Bindaree 5th in Hennessy off 139, 3rd in WGN off 136, 1st in GN off 136. T43 6th in Hennessy off 146, 2nd in WGN off 144, runs in GN off 151.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Bizarre scenes on betfair last night with Across the Bay' date=' drifted to prices in the region of 200/1+. Clearly i panicked and layed off as much as I could thinking he was out. I wake up this morning and he is available to back at 48.0 again. Who on earth was laying him at 200.0??? Its ruined my exposure to him on my National thread. I shouldn't get sucked in my market movements really but the drift last night seemed pretty conclusive.[/quote'] Yes ,i went to bed and it was 110/1,backed it myself and thought ,well that's out the race,hope am wrong.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Balthazar King very interesting if he runs. 33s looks a good price considering he jumps well, stays well and goes very well fresh. Won the cross country at Cheltenham last year and the weather looks set fair for the next week or so. Not sure how the ground will end up but if it's not too testing then there must be far worse 33/1 shots out there.

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Balthazar King very interesting if he runs. 33s looks a good price considering he jumps well' date=' stays well and goes very well fresh. Won the cross country at Cheltenham last year and the weather looks set fair for the next week or so. Not sure how the ground will end up but if it's not too testing then there must be far worse 33/1 shots out there.[/quote'] Any Soft in the going description, is to tally against it, the days before the taps..But you never know with this track n ground, Definately best to wait, cos if its soft,,he will be pulled out, and then straight to sandown.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th It's amazing how much rain Aintree seems to take, i remember backing a horse called Bonanza Boy to win the race many years ago, ultimate mud lark, the week leading up to the race it hammered it down every day, more it rained the more i backed him,as far as i remember others must have been thinking the same as his price crashed into favourite, it rained that bad i was certain it would he would get the heavy ground he needed, sick when it was announced soft. had a lot of money on ew,of course he was run off his feet and even though he made up a lot of ground he finished 5th. those days you only ever got first 4. I am always very wary to assume the going will be testing at Aintree, As far as this years race goes,ideally they want it Good to Soft for safety reasons and if it does dry out IMO they will water. they don't like it good as horses go off into the first couple of fences at break neck speed.,so to be honest i would not back a good ground horse anti post for the National as Aintree will ideally try to keep it good to soft.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Aintree bans firm ground for the Grand National Aintree has run its last fast-ground Grand National. Starting from this year’s race, on April 6, the course will be watered as a matter of routine to provide going that is never any quicker than 'good to soft’. Record breakers: the course record set by Mr Frisk (Marcus Armytage, left) in 1990 is now unlikely to be broken Photo: ALLSPORT By HOTSPUR (JA McGrath) 10:00PM GMT 20 Mar 2013 Comment In the most significant move yet to minimise the risk to horses and riders, the Aintree executive is effectively reshaping the race to fit modern requirements, at the same time trying to retain the character of jump racing’s ultimate challenge. There will never be a repeat of Mr Frisk’s 1990 triumph when, on ground officially termed 'firm’, the Kim Bailey-trained gelding set a record time of 8min 47.8sec. Lord Daresbury, the chairman of Aintree, said that a commissioned statistical report had supported the intuition that there was a direct link between injury to horses and the state of the ground. The quicker the ground, the faster the pace, which led to a greater risk of injury in the event of a fall. “We looked closely at all the statistics, and in discussion with trainers, we came more and more to the conclusion that ensuring ground that was always on the soft side of 'good’ was the right thing to do,” he said. Before Mr Frisk, the 'firm’ going winners over the previous five decades were Lucius (1978), Rag Trade (1976), Red Rum (1973) and Nicolaus Silver (1961). Related Articles

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Twelve of the 22 winners since Mr Frisk were successful on ground described as 'good’. In future, there will be no winners on that type of surface. Lord Daresbury was aware of possible criticism, particularly from owners and trainers of horses with a preference for fast ground. “There have been contrary individual voices from that direction,” he confirmed. “But when reality and logic starts sinking in, it should be different. Everybody is doing everything possible for the success of the Grand National, and I think most involved are taking more responsibility themselves for the race. There have been some critics who have said we are lowering the fences, but that is not the case.” While they have not cut the size of the jumps, officials have introduced a softer core to the fences, with a view to lowering the risk of injury to horses who might plough through them. The revelation regarding the future watering policy is the most significant piece of news regarding the future of the big race. Changes to the course, at Becher’s and elsewhere, the reduction in distance of the run to the first fence, and calls for fewer runners, all amount to cosmetic alterations. However, a policy to ensure that the going is always on the soft side is a positive step that should be applauded. In the long term, it will subtly change the profile of a would-be Grand National horse. However, it might also ensure the casualty rate is lowered and the future of the race guaranteed.

It may be official policy to water to get Good to soft ground from now on but Aintree made a statement like this in 2009, it was very nice weather the week leading up to that years national,certain to be good ground, I had backed Comply or Die knowing he would have no problems handling the good ground. Aintree issued a statement around Wednesday saying they are watering every night after racing to get the ground good to soft for safety reasons, I was not happy with this but understood the logic, Mon Mome caused a shock that year, outstaying Comply or die for a shock win, i think if the ground was left alone to remain good then Comply or Die would have won that year. Good idea to announce it's policy though at least people know how they stand well before the race itself.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Would still give Balthazar King a chance so long as it's no worse than good to soft.

[Toast]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Stats come and go every year, and with back fitting can be applied to any winner, though some do stand the test of time, most of which are already mentioned in this thread. But, IMO, since Phil Smith decided to compress the handicap, the classier horses have come to the fore over the last 4/5 years. 2 things that are noticeable to me are, a/ the number of horses finishing in the top 6 when carrying 10 10 or more. In the last 5 years, we've had 44555, meaning 23/30 top 6 carried 10 10 or more, 77% which is quite impressive, and proves class is coming to the fore. b/ following the class angle, the last 5 winners all had a hurdle rating of at least 140. The 5 years before that, the OR was between 110 and 122. One final thing that I've noticed, since Phil Smith changed the handicapping style, or started to, about 4 years ago,ims, the last 4 winners have had an OR of within 10lbs of the top weight. Before that, the previous 6 renewals ranged from 9-19lbs below the top weight. Again, showing class coming to the fore. With the above in mind, my idea of the winner will be 11st plus and have a hurdle rating of at least 140.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th good post toast :)

[Toast]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Ergo, after taking the above into consideration, and eliminating those that fail key stats, my 3 against the field are, taking the nrnb, all each way. Across the bay at 33/1.... Fits the majority of trends and my 2 and hails from a stable that knows how to target the race. Forpadytheplasterer at 66/1.... Again fits just about everything except the 28f one. Was high class as a novice, but has somehow managed to lose his way, though still retaining some ability. Seems to have a preference for large galloping tracks, has finished in the top 3 of 75% of his races, though some were single figure fields. His poor runs came at, Cheltenham, surprisingly, kempton and over 17f which is way too short for him. Has stamina doubts, but, the hustle and bustle, and novelty of the race could just rejuvenate him. At the price, he's worth the risk. Ballabriggs at 25/1.... Been there, seen it, done it. Age is the main concern and the holes in his form are understandable. Take his chasing career alone, when he's ran fresh in the past, on the whole, he's disappointed, but when returning to the course within 35 days of his previous run, his form stacks up nicely. S22f2231111213. Except for 2 mishaps, he's had a top 3 finish in his other 12 runs, 86%. This week he runs under his optimum conditions. Worth looking out for any novelty bets. Personally , I'm looking at the female jockeys. 6 of the last 7 have completed the course finishing 5 5 5 0 7 15 3. Torino bay would interest me ew if female ridden, despite being a novice. And finally, 1 horse who will be getting the full place lay treatment is Teaforthree. Those who finished relatively close up in the welsh national, have all subsequently run poorly since, whereas, a few of those who were hammered 50+ lengths or pulled up, have subsequently performed better since, notably, Across The Bay. Teaforthree then went to Haydock, where he ran very poorly, mccoys ride certainly didn't help him, and he looks gone for the season.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th On His Own (7), Seabass (10), Cappa Bleu (12), Colbert Station (12), Chicago Grey (14), Sunnyhillboy (16), Teaforthree (16), Imperial Commander (20), Join Together (20), Ballabriggs (25), Balthazar King (28), Rare Bob (28), Roberto Goldback (33), Tofino Bay (33), Wyck Hill (33), Across The Bay (40), Big Fella Thanks (40), Soll (40), Treacle (40), Always Waining (50) , Harry The Viking(50), Joncol (50), Lion Na Bearnai (50), Magnanimity (50), Quel Esprit (50), Quiscover Fontaine (50), Romanesco (50), Saint Are (50), Weird Al (50), What A Friend (50), Backstage (66), Bostons Angel (66), Forpadydeplasterer (66), Lost Glory (66), Ninetieth Minute (66), Oscar Time (66), Poker De Sivola (66), Quinz(66), The Rainbow Hunter (66), Mr Moonshine (80), Swing Bill (80), Any Currency(100), Auroras Encore (100), Becauseicouldntsee (100), Tarquinius (100), Tatenen (100), Viking Blond (100), Bob Lingo (125), Major Malarkey (125), Cloudy Lane (150), Gullible Gordon (150), Mumbles Head (150), Pearlysteps (150), Mortimers Cross (250), Pentiffic (250)

[Lady Rebecca]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I thought this might be of interest to those betting on the National http://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29840559/grand-national-judo-style-2013 Lets hope all the runners and riders come back safe and sound this year. That's the most important thing. Good luck :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th GRAND NATIONAL - 1pt win Balthazar King @ 25/1 (Hills) Time to take the plunge because this horse will go off shorter on the day I reckon with the ground likely to suit. Okay, they're going to water and try ensure good to soft ground but as long as it's not very deep which it shouldn't be then Philip Hobbs' runner will have a very decent chance. His record fresh is pretty much outstanding and when you couple that with decent ground then he is a formidable force. Both of those should be on his side in this and his experience over the cross country course at Cheltenham should also stand him in good stead. He's a prominent racer which suits and largely is a super jumper. He stays well (although this is a unique test) and just looks to have all the credentials to run a big race. This is a career-high mark but this is one of those races where most won't run to their mark and considering the test and conditions seem likely to suit, he's well worth a 1pt stake at 25s.

[cpo]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I have just backed Ballabriggs each way at 25/1. He was bang there and travelling just as well as anything coming to the 2nd last in 2012 where his mark of 160 probably started to have an effect on him. He is 8lbs lower this year and 2lbs higher than when winning the race in 2011. Should get a good run for your money with him and could make the places. The 6 places on offer with BetVictor is tempting but he is only 16/1 with them. He has a nice swing in the weights with those that finished ahead of him last year and are much shorter in the betting this year. Donald McCain has been bullish over his chances recently and it was his dad that trained the last 12 year old winner of the race. Big chance for me.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Ergo, after taking the above into consideration, and eliminating those that fail key stats, my 3 against the field are, taking the nrnb, all each way. Across the bay at 33/1.... Fits the majority of trends and my 2 and hails from a stable that knows how to target the race. Forpadytheplasterer at 66/1.... Again fits just about everything except the 28f one. Was high class as a novice, but has somehow managed to lose his way, though still retaining some ability. Seems to have a preference for large galloping tracks, has finished in the top 3 of 75% of his races, though some were single figure fields. His poor runs came at, Cheltenham, surprisingly, kempton and over 17f which is way too short for him. Has stamina doubts, but, the hustle and bustle, and novelty of the race could just rejuvenate him. At the price, he's worth the risk. Ballabriggs at 25/1.... Been there, seen it, done it. Age is the main concern and the holes in his form are understandable. Take his chasing career alone, when he's ran fresh in the past, on the whole, he's disappointed, but when returning to the course within 35 days of his previous run, his form stacks up nicely. S22f2231111213. Except for 2 mishaps, he's had a top 3 finish in his other 12 runs, 86%. This week he runs under his optimum conditions. Worth looking out for any novelty bets. Personally , I'm looking at the female jockeys. 6 of the last 7 have completed the course finishing 5 5 5 0 7 15 3. Torino bay would interest me ew if female ridden, despite being a novice. And finally, 1 horse who will be getting the full place lay treatment is Teaforthree. Those who finished relatively close up in the welsh national, have all subsequently run poorly since, whereas, a few of those who were hammered 50+ lengths or pulled up, have subsequently performed better since, notably, Across The Bay. Teaforthree then went to Haydock, where he ran very poorly, mccoys ride certainly didn't help him, and he looks gone for the season.

Interesting post Toast. I too am leaning away from Teaforthree because of that Chepstow performance. It looks to have taken a lot out of the horse (as well as others in that race and others that have had hard races on heavy). At his best I think he has a chance but I guess its trying to weigh up whether he can get back to that level this season. I personally am against Forpadytheplasterer. I am worried because he ties in with the stats but I really dont think he will stay. Although I said the same about Seabass last year! Across The Bay and Ballabriggs (EW only) both look very solid bets to me as well.

[trips]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

Across The Bay and Ballabriggs (EW only) both look very solid bets to me as well.

I agree but wonder if everythings ok with Across the Bay, have no idea what was going on the other night when his price shot out to 200/1 on Betfair.

[bowles10]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th how does everyone feel about the hurdles factor in the winning profile in last 10 years, is it just coincidence that 8 of last 10 had a hurdles run during the year as most now trying to get early runs into the season and protecting their chase mark? I wonder also what may be the gamble this year on the day.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Time to narrow down the field. Three pretty strong trends that I have picked up from another website: 1. Had a chase win in last 15 months, or in last 6 chases (21/22) or (39/42). The three exceptions had form in previous Grand Nationals 2. RP Comments for chases over 26f feature phrases "staying on" kept on" or something to suggest horse was staying on at the end. I havent checked myself but apparently, this features in 33% of all winners races. 3. Has either won over 26f+ or placed over 28f+ This leaves us with 13 from the original list of 57. Ballabriggs Sunnyhillboy Teaforthree Across the Bay Join Together Balthazar King Cappa Bleu Chicago Grey Any Currency Poker de Sivola Mortimers Cross I need to remove some of these so..... Sunnyhillboy. Previous winners and placed horses have poor records, mainly due to being lumbered with extra weight. Sunnyhillboy falls into that category and will find this year tougher going than last. Respected, but ruthlessness is required and he is crossed off the list. Balthazar King - I'm taking the view that he isnt classy enough having neither won or placed in a Class 1 chase. Chicago Grey - well in at the weights but he didnt win a great race last time (favourite, Rubi Light was injured) and his jumping doesnt fill me with confidence. He has a back of the field running style which is dangerous in the National and found him out last year. A danger but happy to discard at the current price. Any Currency - will stay all day but in his own time, not quick enough or classy enough to win a National. A possible each way bet at a big price. Mortimers Cross - A squeak each way, if it came up a bog. Unlikley to be good enough. Happy to discard for win purposes. This leaves six. Cappa Bleu Teaforthree Ballabriggs Across the Bay Join Together Poker de Sivola (not guaranteed a run) Cappa Bleu - I know he has run 9 times over fences so falls one short of the ideal. However within those 9 races he has competed in some of the most competitive races in the calendar – Grand National, Won at Cheltenham Festival (Foxhunters), Hennessy Gold Cup, Welsh National. The point of the 10 race stat is that horses who haven't reached that number, may lack experience and not be streetwise enough for the Grand National. Having been placed in both Nationals, this is not going to be the case for Cappa Bleu so we can stop worrying about it in my opinion. Previously placed horses don’t have a great record as they tend to be lumbered with lots of extra weight (see Seabass and Sunnyhillboy this year) but Cappa Bleu actually gets in off a lower rating than last year and is 4lbs lower than when 3rd in the Welsh National, an excellent trial for Aintree’s big one. Will need to be ridden a bit more prominently as was doing all his best work too late last year (jumped the last fence in 8th, stayed on to finish 4th). His prep run has worked out well staying on behind Vino Griego on ground he wouldn't have liked. He stays, he jumps, he likes Aintree, he is in form, will like the likely gd/sft ground, runs off a good mark and has a big chance, especially if he can be closer to the leaders late on. Teaforthree - Three of the trials I like for the Grand National are the NH Chase at Cheltenham, Welsh Grand National and the Hennessy Gold Cup. Teaforthree has run well in all three and obviously stays well. His rating could be a touch high but being a second season novice could have more improvement left. Previous second season chasers tend to be experienced (see Bindaree who had 15 chase starts including runs in top races such as the Hennessy and Welsh Grand National) Teaforthree has a similar profile to this. Ballabriggs - Wouldn't normally look too hard at a 12 y o for this but worth noting that the last 12 yo winner was Amberleigh House, another Aintree specialist for the same stable. Didn't have a great prep last year, only running once at Kelso however was in contention right up until the last couple of fences when the extra weight (ran off 160) took its toll. A 6th place finish was still respectable. This year's prep has been more to plan although he has faced heavy ground on two occasions which he reportedly hates. Looking on the bright side, his rating has dropped as a result and he races off the same mark as, when victorious two years ago. His last prep at Kelso was decent enough and he could be dangerous in an open year. The ground appears to be turning in his favour and I expect him to run well. Join Together- Ran well in the Becher Chase finishing a close second to Aintree specialist Hello Bud. Has an excellent Grand National breeding being an Old Vic and Montelimar as damsire. Stamina seems assured as he has stayed on in his races over 3m and looks a safe jumper. Aimed at the race all season and represents last year's winning trainer jockey combination. I suspect this will come a year too early for him as he remains inexperienced, however I wouldn’t write him off completely. I want him covered to an extent. Across the Bay - In form following a wind operation and was impressive over hurdles last time, battling to win from start to finish. Has been noted as staying on in most of his races over 3m so every chance he could last the trip. Previous entries in the Welsh and Irish versions, suggest McCain sees him as a stayer. The suspicion is that the Irish GN came too early in his career whilst the Welsh version was run on a bog with ATB carrying top weight so easy to excuse that run.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I've left Poker de Sivola for now but I suspect he will sneak in and on decent ground wouldnt be with out a chance having won the bet365 at Sandown off 136 and the NH Chase at Cheltenham. He would run off 133 at Aintree.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

how does everyone feel about the hurdles factor in the winning profile in last 10 years' date=' is it just coincidence that 8 of last 10 had a hurdles run during the year as most now trying to get early runs into the season and protecting their chase mark? I wonder also what may be the gamble this year on the day.[/quote'] It's not a trend I would definitely use to be honest. If it was apparent that a horses mark has been protected then it is worth taking note of but I wouldnt ignore a horse that hadnt run over hurdles. I think there are other ways of judging if a horse is well treated and/or fit enough.

[Primevil]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Its a factor you have to respect, what it does tell you is the National in the majority has always been the plan. As for the gamble, Id say now "IMPERIAL COMMANDER" will go off FAV, 1. the far east will see this as the class horse, 2. alot of media attention on him and the yard, who are in terrific form, He tho has not had a hurdle run.

[Aykay1]

Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Yeah IC could easily go off favourite. On his Own looks poor value based on what he has achieved. Respected as Mullins rates him highly (as good as Hedgehunter apparently!) but I cant help thinking "Pont Alexandre"