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Atko

Tennis - June 6-12

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Lucie Safarova -4.5 vs Shuai Zhang. 1.77 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Zhang is very lucky to be in this tournament. She has had tons of luck with a draw. First she beat part-time player Julia Boserup and then had a gift from Galina Voskoboeva who threw away a match that she should have won easily. Smth like 38 unforced errors, missed volleys at the net and just 4/14 on break points from Voskoboeva. That's what Zhang got away with. Not against Safarova. Despite being a bit poor in her first round, she improved in the 2nd against Krajicek. Even if she loses a set today, I still expect Safarova to win by at least five games. Difference in class, especially on this surface is huge. She beat Zhang by exactly five games in their previous and only one meeting which was earlier in the year in Aussie Open. Safarova won 7-5, 4-6, 6-1. Shuai Peng -2.5 vs Marina Erakovic. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Erakovic somehow managed to beat Errani despite not serving well and being broken five times. Peng is clearly a better player and won't waste as many chances as Errani did. Could be overish match as Peng also likes to mess around but can't see past her in this one. 2.5 games is a bit short for a handicap as well, as I would go for 3.5-4 games, so this is a bargain for me. Caroline Wozniacki vs Alberta Brianti. Under 18.5 games. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Wozniacki was forced to play a tie-break by Kerber yesterday. Don't think that will happen against Brianti. The Italian veteran is crap player and can not see her winning more than six games against the Dane. Brianti will be forced to play extra shot after extra shot and that will lead to unforced errors. Serve is not good for her and there are no weapons she can hurt Wozniacki. Last time they met in 2009, Wozniacki dropped just one game (Brianti did not hold her serve a single time) and this one could be very similar. 18.5 games is a bit too high for totals in my opinion.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sometimes in gambling we make good bets that lose and bad bets that win..... the difficulty for future learning is that we usually say a 'win is a win' when our bets come in ...but often when we lose we chalk it down as 'poor conditions' or 'rubbish performance' and of course sometimes confess to ourselves it was a terrible bet. It's still worth pointing out though that whenever a player we back wins very comfortably we never blame the conditions or the poor performance of the opposition. I just think this is an important point in helping people learn in gambling and how important it is to be honest with oneself. e.g ' date=' If an 8-11 shot you back wins in a third set tie-break..... Is that a good bet...or if you beat an odds-on handicap by one game...E.g I Backed mattek minus 2.5 today but she won the match in third set breker... is this a good bet...I don't think is although i'M not totally sure....kindof confused . what do folks think.... am i just over-analysing....btw.... for the most part i've been really liking the tips on the site...verdasco was the tip of the day and this guy spikatto seems to know his stuff.[/quote'] Exactly mate, this place has changed recently.....wins are celebrated from the rooftops while losses are swept under the carpet or sometimes not even acknowledged in some cases, sometimes its easy to forget I've done it myself but in some cases I think its the more convenient option. There are some great punters here but the feel is different nowadays I think. And I agree, sometimes bad bets win.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Sport Tennis Event Milos Raonic vs. Philipp Petzschner Selection Milos Raonic to win 2-0 Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.38 Reasoning ATP Halle - After getting off to a promising start on the hard courts, Milos Raonic is a backed outsider to do well at Wimbledon and this week at Halle. He faces German Petzschner, who played good tennis against Gimeno-Traver, but I don't see him matching up well too Raonic with his serve. I expected Raonic's price to be higher, around 4/6, so I'll have to take Raonic in two sets here. Sport Tennis Event Victor Troicki vs. Tomas Berdych Selection Victor Troicki Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.10 Reasoning ATP Halle - Tomas Berdych has not been in such great form recently, and with Victor Troicki looking like a strong outsider to win the tournament in Halle, I have to back him to overcome Berdych. For me, the odds should be 50/50, maybe with Troicki a slight favorite as he defeated Zverev and Andreev with ease. Bemelmans had a match point against Berdych, and shouldn't really be allowed to get close to winning a match of tennis against the Czech. Have to back Troicki here. Sport Tennis Event Andy Roddick vs. Fernando Verdasco Selection Andy Roddick to win 2-0 Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.40 Reasoning ATP London - Despite his recent decline in the rankings, Andy Roddick is still a force to be reckoned with on grass. His game doesn't suit the hard court as much anymore, but the slower grass courts should make him a little stronger than Verdasco. There could be a tie-break or two here, but with a dominant serve I'm backing Roddick to wrap it up in two.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Fernando Verdasco - Andy Roddick (-3) 2.05@triobet 5/10! First of all -3 games is too low. No matter that this has to be a cracking game, it doesn't make sence at all. Andy was impresive yesterday vs Anderson who is a great server, but andy looked so calm and ready, his return game was superb too. Looks like american planned to stay here for a while. Just can't see Verdasco breaking Andy. Verdasco is playing better with every game, but he were not tasted like today will... H2H 9-3 to american :hope Troicki tb. Tomas Berdych 2.1@triobet 5/10! No way that Tomas being favourite here, he should be at the airport right now, he saves 3 match points vs Bemelmans to overcome in the 3rd. Then also just won vs good friend Jan Hernych. Boy oh boy Troicki will test him today by all means. and there's no reason why he should be a dog here, just a little miss-judgment, so serb clear win.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Hi guys, 1 pick for the WTA Birmingham tournament: HANTUCHOVA TO DEFEAT RISKE BY2:0 SETS @ 1.56 on pinnaclesports Hantuchova is in great form and she is a top class grass court player. Riske is a talented young American player and on US hard courts she is capable of resisting Hantuchova but on grass courts Hantuchova should have too much attacking capabilities. [url=http://www.winningtipster.com/]

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Halle, Germany, quarter finals. I have seen both matches of the german and I wasn't impressed at all. In the first match with Stebe he was very weak, could have easily been beaten by the youngster and with Dolgopolov had a great luck as the Ukrainean played the worst game I have seen from him lately. Hewitt showed good tennis, very happy to see him playing so good, aggressive, will to win and control of every ball. Hewitt vs Kohlschreiber home win @ 1.72 with Ladbrokers

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 ATP halle, quarter finals. Berdych struggled here while Troicky showed his best. History: 2010 Indian Wells, Berdych won 2-0, in 2009 at Indian Wells Troicky won 2-0. Berdych struggled as I have said with Hernych and Bemelmands, while Troicky won with Andreev and showed how to be a winner with no emotion. Troicky to win, really impressed by him! Troicky vs Berdych home win @2.21 with >Pinnacle

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Verdasco vs Roddick pick: Verdasco @ 2.87 with Sportingbet Verdasco showed character here and value as he won against Argentinian David Nalbandian, a good tennis player. Verdasco plays well this season, he grws from match to match and I think the grass is a surface that he likes to play on. Roddick is trying to give some value to this season, but I can't see winning here. He was most of the time injured, missed from Roland Garros, he is very motivated, but I think it is not enogh against a players that is also motivated, has good results and plays good tennis.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Andy Roddick vs Fernando Verdasco 4pts Andy Roddick (-2.5 games) to win - 5/6 with Skybet Strong-ish bet for me here on a line that i think is too low. I have been impressed by Roddick so far this week and yesterday against Anderson he really upped his game to come through a potentially tough match pretty easily. His return game was as good as i have seen it in a while whilst his movement was brilliant too. With that being against a big server like the South African he should be able to do the same here against an opponent who has given his opponents some openings on his service game so far this week. I sided with Verdasco against both Mahut and Nalbandian and he didn't disappoint. There is no doubt that he is in good shape and does come into this with a chance but playing an inform Roddick on grass is a big step up on anything he has faced so far. He has a poor head to head record with him and i think Roddick's superior grass court movement will see him through. This line could also allow for Roddick to lose a close set but i am doubtful that will happen so he should cover it ok.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Just one for me today. (2/10) L.Hewitt to beat P.Kohlschreiber @ 1.73 with Pinnacle I liked Hewitt more in the opening rounds and he should be able to come through this one. He has a 2-1 record against the German and I feel that he can build on his performances here. It might be tight and we may see a three-setter, but the Aussie should prevail in the end imo.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Verdasco vs Roddick - Roddick to win 1.44 Victor Chandler Roddick to win 2-0 2.10 Bet 365 Roddick does well on grass with his serve having a great impact on it he has had a bad season so far struggling with injuries and form and needs ranking points to maintain his ranking. So he definitely wants to go deep here, playing against Verdasco who hardly plays on grass let alone does well. He faced a lacklustre Nalbandian in the last roud who is still coming back from an injury layoff and won but i'm still not convinced with him on grass and think that he has overachieved so far. Roddick should take this without too much hassle unless he decides to clown around or Verdasco goes into God mode.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Very interesting first set statistics for Verdasco-Roddick games 12 H2H games : 6 ended 6-3 and 6 ended with tiebreak. Odds for tiebreak in first set : 3.00 Odds for under 9,5 games : 2.50

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Tailing Hewitt > Kohlschreiber, and adding Brianti to bt Wozniacki @12.500 Pinnacle (0.5 u) Brianti (+6.5) to bt Wozniacki @evens local bookie (1u) I have been following the Copenhagen tournament closely for past couple of days, and Brianti was the player that impressed me most. The 31 yr old Italian player is steadily climbing the rankings during past couple of years, and this season she is heading into top 50. Her style is well suited to hard surface, which, as she admits, is her favourite. She can hit hard forehand and (one handed) backhand winners in a Federer's style, as well as running in sliced shot rallies. In R16, she defeated well playing Kucova 36 64 61 after having a slow start, but from the second set there were no doubts who will eventually win. On the other hand, yesterday's match Wozniacki/Kerber convinced me that the main weapon Woz has here is home soil and crowd (and sometimes linesmen's, too) support. She had really hard time with Kerber last night, and had it not been for a wrongly called point in a crucial moment of the second set, after which Kerber imploded, the result could have been different. IMO 6.5 handicap is a gift, and I am adding an outright as well, just in case Alberta will start playing well from the very beginning. GL :hope

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Cilic -3.5 vs. Bellucci @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) - LOSS
Bellucci bagels Cilic in the second set to round off a pretty miserable day for me. In the red for the week now. Looking to get back on track with a few picks from today's quarter finals, just posting this one up for now though. Gerry Weber Open - Petzschner to beat Raonic @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes) Raonic is a tremendous young player with a massive serve and a game well suited to grass but is yet to convince me on this surface because he hasn't sussed his movement out yet, similarly to Del Potro. This guy had only played two matches on grass before this week, and I think that inexperience will be shown up by Petzschner at times in today's match. The German has the superior grass court experience, and he challenged both Federer and Nadal on this surface last season. I expect the he'll target the Canadian's backhand with his slice, and if he does so to good effect, he'll draw errors from that wing. Expect to see a close encounter here, much closer than the odds suggest. Value on Petzschner.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Thanks for your philosophical views on betting. :\
:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!
Nail on the head mate :ok Can't find much to bet on today, trappy card in both events.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Nail on the head mate :ok Can't find much to bet on today, trappy card in both events.
Strange you cant find any bets Atko because this week has been my best week since the beginning of the year.When the tour vhanges surfaces like from Clay to grass bookies give great prices as they hope for upsets but this weeks tournaments have been superb. yesterday got all bets for halle and london for the singles I played and almost nailed an accumulator with 12 outright tennis bets only to be screwed by the last leg which was Miami Heat against Dallas, and the funny thing of all bets I was certain the heat would beat the Mavs, but thats gambling for you. The prices have been great Atko this week, look again. I like the exotic markets on a number of women and male bets especially overs and handicaps that Im almost certain should come through. Its a pity I have no time to type out the reasoning.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Strange you cant find any bets Atko because this week has been my best week since the beginning of the year.When the tour vhanges surfaces like from Clay to grass bookies give great prices as they hope for upsets but this weeks tournaments have been superb. yesterday got all bets for halle and london for the singles I played and almost nailed an accumulator with 12 outright tennis bets only to be screwed by the last leg which was Miami Heat against Dallas, and the funny thing of all bets I was certain the heat would beat the Mavs, but thats gambling for you. The prices have been great Atko this week, look again. I like the exotic markets on a number of women and male bets especially overs and handicaps that Im almost certain should come through. Its a pity I have no time to type out the reasoning.
I'd liken myself to horse racing trainer, I'm just not firing right now, although strangely every parlay I've played this week has won, and I'm more of a handicap better. Only one that has caught my eye in some shape or form is Verdasco. Think the price is very high, even with the handicap too. Roddick looks a shadow of the man he used to be. Problem is, Nando's a headcase. I do have Troicki, but took that yesterday.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sport Tennis
Event Player To Win Aegon Championships
Selection Andy Roddick
Strength 5/10
Date 12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 6.39
Reasoning Player To Win Aegon Championships - Andy Roddick. In my opinion Andy Roddick can win this tournament - he plays fantastic here - won 32 matches, lost only 5. Andy Roddick won Queens Club ATP in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 - four times! He will play against Fernando Verdasco in next match. Roddick leads 9-3 in head-to-head series so I think that he will win without big problems. Andy Roddick likes play on grass - he has strong service. His service is really hard to break so I don't see many break points for his opponents. I watched Rafael Nadal against Radek Stepanek and Nadal lost one set. Murray is without big shape so I think that Roddick can win tournament in London. He plays fantastic here, won many times. I have to say that odd like 6,39 at pinnacle is great!

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Agree with Atko that today looks tricky to call in places, but I have tried to find some value and taken 3 in total. Marin Cilic vs Andy Murray- Murray -4.5 handicap- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Know what I said yesterday about the handicaps with Murray and I may be a complete idiot for backing him with an even bigger handicap today as it goes completely against what I said, but there's a couple of reasons I think he'll cover it today. Know Cilic picked up a knock yesterday in his match with Bellucci, and although he came through it in the end, image he'll be quite sore today and that's the one thing you can't afford to be against Murray. He'll force Cilic around the court and it he isn't fully fit, he will struggle for the majority of the lengthy rallies. Still don't have any confidence in his serve either. Against Clement it was good in parts, but awful in others, and it didn't improve too much against the Brazilian yesterday, serving only 3 aces with 5 double faults. He'll need plenty of 1st serves in against Murray to pick up cheap points and if he serves like he has done this week, Murray will pick him off. I haven't been utterly convinced with Murray this week, and he has never had it easy at all against Cilic in their matches but given Cilic's erratic nature this week, Murray will be a big step up for him and I secretly fancy the Scot to win this with ease in the end so God help me, I'll back him with the handicap. Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga +3.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga to win- 11/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Not often I go against Rafa in any tournament but I'm going against him for the second time this week. Nobody can say the Spaniard is completely fit, nor can they say he is playing particularly well. Yesterday against Stepanek he looked to be suffering from fatigue, especially in that third set where his shots were loose, and he was making tons of unforced errors. 16 break points on serve he faced and he was lucky I thought that Stepanek couldn't pick up many cheap points on serve otherwise Rafa would have been in all sorts of trouble. Tsonga on the other hand will pick up these cheap points, and he'll be fresh as anything as Llodra retired yesterday. He looked in good shape against Berrer in his first match, and although it wasn't a massive test for him, he looked to settle on the grass well enough and looked comfortable throughout. He has already beaten Nadal once before when they've played, back in the Australian Open in 2008, and he has run Nadal close on a few other ocassions so he clearly has the game to trouble the Spaniard. Nadal for some reason also played doubles last night after his match with Stepanek, so no way he'll be at his best today after a late finish last night. Tsonga won't roll over today just because it's Nadal, and he will hit through the ball with power and I secretly fancy him to repeat what Lopez did last year at this stage in beating Rafa. Tsonga will get chances on Nadal's serve and if he serves well, you can't rule him out in this one. Taken the handicap as insurance for Tsonga in case he falls just short, but taken the outright win at a one ball bookie just in case Nadal retires which I doubt, but given how much he has played recently is a slight poissibility. Tsonga will be right up for this one and I feel the Frenchman has a chance with Nadal not at his best so I'll hope he pulls through.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!
To me good reasoning and winning generally come hand in hand, so I would disagree with you there mate. The technical ability and talent of a player or team shouldn't be the only factor that's looked into. The crowd, the desire/passion to win and calmness under pressure are many of other things. I'm not saying luck in sport is rare but in tennis luck isn't that dependant on, you rarely get a bad decision like in football where there may be a goal given that was offside or a ball over the line but not seen by the linesman, or diving for penalties. Ofcourse you can get pigeons and stuff like that but that's really rare. Troicki and the ball-boy when he played Murray is another rare instance of bad luck.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

I'd liken myself to horse racing trainer, I'm just not firing right now, although strangely every parlay I've played this week has won, and I'm more of a handicap better. Only one that has caught my eye in some shape or form is Verdasco. Think the price is very high, even with the handicap too. Roddick looks a shadow of the man he used to be. Problem is, Nando's a headcase. I do have Troicki, but took that yesterday.
Nadal vs Tsonga and nando vs Roddick all scream overs to me.i might be wrong but I doubt it. I would be weary on taking outrights for outsiders unless its on handicaps because some matches could go either way.i wouldnt be surprised if Berdych beat victor, he is that type of guy so I dont normally bet on a match that involves him. Wouldn’t touch Tsonga but its on grass and Nadal is struggling so I m certain about the Over along with Vedasco match because roddick is also struggling albeit coming into form.

Hell even the match between Murray and Cilic could go over

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

To me good reasoning and winning generally come hand in hand, so I would disagree with you there mate. The technical ability and talent of a player or team shouldn't be the only factor that's looked into. The crowd, the desire/passion to win and calmness under pressure are many of other things. I'm not saying luck in sport is rare but in tennis luck isn't that dependant on, you rarely get a bad decision like in football where there may be a goal given that was offside or a ball over the line but not seen by the linesman, or diving for penalties. Ofcourse you can get pigeons and stuff like that but that's really rare. Troicki and the ball-boy when he played Murray is another rare instance of bad luck.
I bet across all sporting codes so was speaking in general.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Well, didn't think I'd get time to write this one up on here, but given the rain in London and my boredom at work, I'll do so now. AEGON Championships - Verdasco to beat Roddick @ 3 (10bet) Initially decided against this bet last night, but the drift in Verdasco's price since then has convinced me otherwise. Not been entirely convinced by Roddick this week, or throughout the season to be honest. Really enjoyed watching him over the years but I get the sense that with every passing tournament, the powerful and robust game which has brought him so much success is on the wane. Sure, he'll always fire down a fine first serve percentage and plenty of aces, but more players are managing to get those rockets back into play nowadays - even on his beloved grass courts - and the wicked forehand isn't what it once was. Verdasco isn't particularly renowned for his return game, but the slow conditions players have commented on in the last couple of days will play into his hands here - they'll take some of the zip off the Roddick serve, and I know whose groundies I'd back if these two started slogging it out at the back of the court. The Spaniard's mighty solid from the baseline when he's on his game, and I'm liking his attitude this week. Hard to back a chump against a champ, but there's plenty of value in Verdasco at 2/1.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

SportTennis
EventMattek-Sands v Barthel
SelectionBarthel
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceBetfred @ 2.50
ReasoningAnother one for me today. Mattek-Sands had a big struggle yesterday against Larsson and she didn't look too good. She retired in the doubles later with a back injury so not sure on her condition. Barthel is having an excellent week. She's come through qualifying and got a couple of good wins in the main draw. In total 5 matches and she hasn't dropped a set yet. Good chance of an upset in this match I feel.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Hi all, Just thought id drop in and give my two cents on todays quarter finals at Queens and, firstly, the third set between Ward and Querrey. I watched the match yesterday and Ward became very dominant in the second set, partly down to Querrey looking slightly injured but also due to Wards tenacity to get back into the match against such an opponent. Odds of 7/4 on Ward look well too big and if he doesnt win then I can see him going through on default because Querreys arm strain could come into play. Looking to the Quarter finals I wouldnt be looking at the favorites too much. Nadal and Murray havnt impressed me much comparred to their own high standards and Tsonga on a handicap looks the way to go. As said above Nadal looked tired and under-par which shows Tsonga to be value to take a surprise win at 2-1. If Nadal does come through then the 2-1 win for Nadal could also come into play. Murray seems at his best when his back is against the wall and for all the players returning to grass for the first time this season it is about getting the time to adjust. I wouldnt back against Murray but can see this going into the 3rd set as Cilic has been quite consistent in the last few rounds and Murray wont be in for an easy time. I think todays motto should be ' beware of the favorites' and one of these matches will see a surprise winner. Picks Ward @ 7/4 (med stakes) Tsonga on a handicap Murray 2-1 Nadal 2-1 Good luck all and enjoy your pimms! :tongue2

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