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Atko

Tennis - June 6-12

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Krajicek > Safarova @2.88 Pinnacle LOSS
Krajicek big server, but did not care much in rallies. Outright did not work, but neither did the +3.5 games handicap. But one good thing about the outright is that it can be hedged more easily.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Handicaps on Murray are starting to frustrate the f*ck out of me. 0-30 on Tipsarevic's serve and he goes to defensive mode. Really annoys the hell out of me when I watch him do that. :wall

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Llodra vs. Tsonga - Over 22.5 games @ 2 (Pinnacle) - VOID AEGON Championships - Anderson vs. Roddick - Over 22.5 games @ 1.91 (bet365) - LOSS
Not sure what kind of injury Llodra picked up but he retired during the rain break. Bemoaning my luck over the other bet really - there was little to choose between the players and Roddick didn't have many opportunities on the Anderson serve but managed to get a break early in each set which ended up busting the overs. AEGON Championships - Cilic -3.5 vs. Bellucci @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Fancy Cilic to come through pretty comfortably here. Bellucci must be tired after two tough three setters. Struggled past Ilhan yesterday and doesn't have the attributes to really trouble a quality player like Cilic on this surface. Cilic looked a bit jittery against Clement but got through in straight sets eventually so he's well placed to push on today. He beat Bellucci comprehensively 6-2, 6-2 in their only previous meeting last year so has the mental edge as well. 3.5 games handicap line looks about right to me but the 2.01 on Cilic covering it seems like value so I'll back him here.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Janko Tipsarevic - Andy Murray: Pick: Over 21.5 Odds: 1.92 (Unibet) Now Tipsa did struggle against Russel and Kavcic. But I must say he really showed his guts and resilience in both those matches. Where he was down he stepped up and turned it around to pull both matches to him in straight sets. Tipsa is showing decent form and he knows how to play Murray well. After 2 matches on grass he should kinda get the hang of it and be acclimatized to the surface. On the other hand we have Murray who had a harder time dismissing Malisse. He blew chances he should have taken in the 2nd set. The only moment in the game that Xavier played rather well meant winning him a set. To be honest the other 2 sets Malisse played crappy in the other 2 sets thus easy winnings for Murray. Murray showed glimpses of what he is capable of, but just like Roddick he looked rather rusty on the grass. I don't expect Murray to step it up just yet and I see at least 1 tiebreaker in this game. Take the overs. GL
Murray struggled with Tipsarevic, but looked much better than yesterday. Still not very consistent though.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 0/5.. Could not see this coming. There was one bad call (Hlavackova) and the rest were garbage performances. Voskoboeva gifted the win to Zhang who basically did not have to do anything. Krajicek was good for one set, Errani poor and Cilic... Well, the idiot checked out of the 2nd set. Wasted talent :@

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Now after playing a bit with WTA, it's time to go for real business: Troicki to bt Berdych @2.100 Pinnacle (3 u) It's a major play of the week for me. Basically I am tailing Atko on this, and I am posting it just to show how the price has changed.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Couple early for Friday. Have few other in mind as well, still waiting for handicaps. Lleyton Hewitt -1.5 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber 1.83 @ Bet365 (6/10) Hewitt struggled a bit against Seppi but managed to get it done with something to spare. I think it should be not much harder against Kohlschreiber. The German player better on serve than the Italian but I can see Hewitt getting something out of longer rallies and that will prove to be the difference. Being a defending champ adds extra responsibility to play solid ball game and even if Kohly can push him very close, still think Lleyton will have this one and couple games of handicap should not be a problem to cover for the Aussie. Alona Bondarenko > Petra Martic. 1.73 @ Pinnacle (4/10) This is only the 4th tournament of the year for Bondarenko. She is slowly regaining her form and on paper is a better player than Martic and should win this match. Martic has got decent serve and forehand and loves indoor conditions but her overall game is pretty limited and other than serving can't see her offering much more to trouble the Ukraine player. Martic was pushed all the way by clay courter Halep who was not that far from winning, she had 14 break points, converted just five. Bondarenko will do better. Bondarenko can lose a set here as she did against Woerle in previous round so I would stay away from handicap and have just a win at a bit smaller odds.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Had another look at taken a further 3 for the action in Queen's. Regret not taking Verdasco at evens last night, but now he's odds on, it's too short to back the Spaniard in my opinion. Janko Tipsarevic vs Andy Murray- Murray -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10)- LOSS Rafael Nadal vs Radek Stepanek- Nadal -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10)- WIN Marin Cilic vs Tomaz Bellucci- Cilic -3.5 handicap- Evens Ladbrokes- (4/10)- LOSS
Murray was just incredibly frustrating to watch given I had him on the handicap. Had 0-30 to cover the handicap but needed a tie break in the end. Nadal looked ropey towards the end of the second set and generally on serve but got the job done. Hate to think what Cilic was doing in that second set. Hope Murray creams him now, just don't the Marin sometimes. The overs in the Monfils/Dodig didn't come through but I'll do the results on that and the Troicki bet tomorrow. From these 3 though, standing of -5.10 today, leaving me on +17.29 for the week.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sam Querry vs James Ward 3pts Under 21.5 games - 11/10 with Paddy Power I really like Querry here and think he will do the job in straight sets but the odds about that make no appeal whatsoever. I see this being the same type of game as when he played Nishikori because i can't see Ward getting a look in on the big mans serve. Despite Ward pulling off a good win against Wawrinka i think there were a lot of things in his favour i.e. Wawrinka having some tough matches in the French Open, not having any games on the grass and Ward already playing on the surface prior to their game. Querry is motivated here with him being the defending champion and this is the type of match he was coming through easily this time last year. Ward's returns won't pose too many problems in my opinion and i can see Querry coming through no worse than 6-4 6-4.
A combination of decent Ward play and Querry going missing during the 2nd set means this is a loser. +2.55 for the day.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Hewitt vs Seppi - Gerry Webber Open (Halle) - Hewitt 2-0 - Evens - Paddy Power - Strength 9/10 - Moderately big stakes

Straight sets @ Even money against Seppi? Seppi doesn't really have a best surface although you would say hard-court is his preferred, he's a mediocre player whatever surface he's on really anyway, the guy has no weapons aside from his at times dug-ed determination and clutch play. Not clutch play as in he plays the big points well but more that he just plays the big points solidly, he isn't phased by situations and can definitely take advantage of any player who isn't playing well on the day. Hewitt is playing well, he comprehensively dispatched with Mayer and will comprehensively dispatch with Seppi in an easy 2 set victory. Expect this to be over with in no time. Seppi's one dimensional play will be eaten up by Hewitt's variety and intelligent play on grass.

Such an easy win, Seppi is diabolically mediocre. :clap Unfortunately didn't follow anyone's tips from today, wish I had as Roddick and Verdasco seemed to do the business, I knew better to leave Del Potro and Cilic on any handicap.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Hewitt vs Kolschreiber - Gerry Webber Open (Halle) - Hewitt to win - 8/13 - Paddy Power - Strength 8/10 - Moderately big stakes

The only reason Kolly is priced so favorably here is home turf, the guy is by no means a grass courter, he has a base-line game suited to medium paced hard-courts and on his day can beat just about anybody outside the top 5. Right now, with the form he's in, his day isn't coming around any time soon, he'll need to have an amazing day to outwit one of the smartest grass courters of the modern era. Hewitt means business, he knows his injury has caused him to slip heavily down the rankings, making a menz on grass his best surface is something he knows he must do in order to save himself from the ordeal of battling through qualifiers just to play in 1000/slam events. Hewitt will outwit and out hustle Kolschreiber a guy who isn't as buoyed by German support as most would initially assume he is.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

SportTennis
EventRaonic v Petzschner
SelectionPetzschner
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.62
ReasoningThis seems like a really close match and a good price. Raonic has the serve, but after that grass court is about movement and so far he's struggled in that area. He's done fine so far but Petzschner is much tougher and will give him problems. Petzchner uses a lot of slices and angles and should do a good job of moving Raonic around. Can't have this much above 2.20.
SportTennis
EventBerdych v Troicki
SelectionTroicki
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 2.10
ReasoningI agree with the other guys thoughts on this match. Berdych has really struggled so far, he just doesn't seem to be playing well. Troicki on the other hand looks to have stepped up lately, and is getting close to a spot in the top 10. He's looked in good shape this week, and I think should be a small favourite in this match.
SportTennis
EventHewitt v Kohlschreiber
SelectionHewitt
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 1.80
ReasoningGood to see Hewitt playing well again, especially on grass courts. He's been very good so far, and I think he'll have too much for Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is a very capable player, and his game should work well on grass. But mentally, he's not in the same league as Hewitt, and I see Hewitt as quite a large favourite here.
SportTennis
EventNadal v Tsonga
SelectionTsonga
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 3.57
ReasoningI think it's worth going against Nadal here. He struggled with Stepanek, and in interviews has mentioned tiredness after the French. Tsonga has a big game for grass, and loves playing to the crowd. This should be a really good match, and the price available on Tsonga is well worth taking.

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I didn't have a good day either. Share fishy's frustration on Murray but I think we have to get used to the fact that that's how he plays his tennis. Shudder to think what went on in that Cilic second set. Good call by SYMIL on Hewitt 2-0. Hopefully tomorrow brings a better day.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Murray vs Cilic - Gerry Webber Open (Halle) - Murray 2-0 - Paddy Power - Strength 7.5/10 - Medium stakes

Cilic? A joke on grass, he has a big serve that reacts well on grass and that's the only thing that carried him through against Clement and especially Belluci.... Murray is the 3rd best returner in World tennis behind Nadal and Djokovic, so therefore where does that leave Cilic? I'll tell you where it leaves him, it leaves him f***ed... Cilic will make unforced error after unforced error and I cannot for the life of me see how he'll muster a set. Murray was eratic against Tipsarevic but he still managed to come through in straights, Cilic isn't as good from the ground as Tipsarevic and I expect Murray to see off Cilic quite comprehensively in the end. Comfortable 2-0.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Sport Tennis Event Barthel - MattekSands Selection Barthel Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 3.10 Reasoning For me Mona Barthel can win this match, odds are too high. Barthel play very good tournament here, first won Q 3 matches, all in straight sets, next play two matches in main draw, both won 2-0. Mona is in good form, have powerfull first serve. Mattek Sands don't show nothing special in this tournament, in many moments look awful. This is player who can be top20 and don't think about grass? Wimbledon is close and close, time to go for grass. QF is good here. Mona in epic three sets --- Sport Tennis Event Zhang - Safarova Selection Zhang Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 4.14 Reasoning Zhans can win this match, odds are really too high, big value. Zhang play in this year against Safarova and lost after three close sets, but in this moment is better player than in january. Zheng here play two good matches, yesterday beat in three sets big server Voskobaeva. Lucie don't show nothing special in this tournament, in first two matches against Krajicek and Konta losing first sets. I don't see easy 2:0 here, this is time for upset. Zhang in two ---- Sport Tennis Event Riske - Hantuchova Selection Riske Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betsson @ 5.00 Reasoning Incredible good value, I can't not play it.. Riske is good, young grass court player. In last year been no name and won Q here and make SF, where lost in three sets against Sharapova. In this year play very good tennis and have chance to repeat result from last year. Hantuchova beat Cirstea and Kudryavtseva without too much problems, but Riske don't have nothing to lost. Hanruchova sometimes have bad day after good matches, this is chance for Riske. For me Riske in three sets! --- Sport Tennis Event Rybarikova - Lisicki Selection Rybarikova Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.10 Reasoning For me Rybarikova have more than 50% chances to win in this match. Rybarikova look better in this tournament than Lisicki in my opinion. Rybarikova here won first two matches in straight sets, against Webbley-Smith and Coco. Yesterday lost TB against Rodionova, but in next two sets concended only one game. Great serving performance. Lisicki in this tournament played only really close matches, 6:4, 7:6 against Date Krumm, 7:5, 7:6 against Flipkens and 7:6, 6:4 against Paszek, sometimes have big lucky. Rybarikova in two sets ------ Sport Tennis Event Troicki - Berdych Selection Troicki Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.10 Reasoning Troicki have more chances than 50% to win this match. Troicki in first two matches here been incredible, against serve-volley Zverev won 6-2, 6-3, against strong grasscourter Andreev won 6-3, 6-1. Troicki is in form, any doubts in this. Berdych looked worse than Troicki in first two matches here, played against two poor players - Bemelmans and Hernych, lost set against first, play two close against Hernych. For me Troicki is small favourite here.. -------- Sport Tennis Event Tsonga - Nadal Selection Tsonga Strength 10/10 Date 10/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 3.25 Reasoning I bet on Jo Wilfried Tsonga in this game. I watching Tsonga and Nadal matches in this tournament and.. Tsonga play incredible good tennis against big server, good grass player Berrer and today play good against Llodra, who retired. Tsonga serve is on fire.. Nadal beat 6-4, 6-4(?!) poor Ebden and today against Stepanek play 3 sets and don't show nothing special. Sometimes bad timing, stupid double faults. Tsonga with this odds is great bet!

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 I also opted to be opposing T-Bird in his match against Troicki. But to be honest at the odds being offered this is a big no bet. Would have wanted atleast 2.20. In the long run you won't get your money out of this.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Tomas Berdych vs Viktor Troicki 4/5pts Viktor Troicki to win - 11/10 with Stan James I am very keen on Troicki in this game at odds against. There are plenty of reasons to oppose Berdych in this match-up in my opinion. First and foremost, his form so far in this tournament has been, to say the least, poor and he could/should have been knocked out in the previous round. His first serve percentage in his last game was as low as 44% and against a player of this quality he will need to find some consistency or he is in major trouble. He never made it past his first round match at the French Open so the poor form hasn't just been over the past couple of days. Berdych's opponent on the other hand is going great and has been for a few weeks now. So far this tournament he has dispatched his challenger very comfortably and, as we all know, he had a good run at the French Open. He has had a good year all round to be fair and, had it not been for the fact he has bumped into an inspired Djokovic 3 times, it would have been even more impressive. His serve is working well and he is breaking enough times to suggest that he will pose Berdych lots of problems.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Sometimes in gambling we make good bets that lose and bad bets that win..... the difficulty for future learning is that we usually say a 'win is a win' when our bets come in ...but often when we lose we chalk it down as 'poor conditions' or 'rubbish performance' and of course sometimes confess to ourselves it was a terrible bet. It's still worth pointing out though that whenever a player we back wins very comfortably we never blame the conditions or the poor performance of the opposition. I just think this is an important point in helping people learn in gambling and how important it is to be honest with oneself. e.g , If an 8-11 shot you back wins in a third set tie-break..... Is that a good bet...or if you beat an odds-on handicap by one game...E.g I Backed mattek minus 2.5 today but she won the match in third set breker... is this a good bet...I don't think is although i'M not totally sure....kindof confused . what do folks think.... am i just over-analysing....btw.... for the most part i've been really liking the tips on the site...verdasco was the tip of the day and this guy spikatto seems to know his stuff.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sometimes in gambling we make good bets that lose and bad bets that win..... the difficulty for future learning is that we usually say a 'win is a win' when our bets come in ...but often when we lose we chalk it down as 'poor conditions' or 'rubbish performance' and of course sometimes confess to ourselves it was a terrible bet. It's still worth pointing out though that whenever a player we back wins very comfortably we never blame the conditions or the poor performance of the opposition. I just think this is an important point in helping people learn in gambling and how important it is to be honest with oneself. e.g ' date=' If an 8-11 shot you back wins in a third set tie-break..... Is that a good bet...or if you beat an odds-on handicap by one game...E.g I Backed mattek minus 2.5 today but she won the match in third set breker... is this a good bet...I don't think is although i'M not totally sure....kindof confused . what do folks think.... am i just over-analysing....btw.... for the most part i've been really liking the tips on the site...verdasco was the tip of the day and this guy spikatto seems to know his stuff.[/quote'] Thanks for your philosophical views on betting. :\

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Tomas Berdych vs Viktor Troicki 4/5pts Viktor Troicki to win - 11/10 with Stan James I am very keen on Troicki in this game at odds against. There are plenty of reasons to oppose Berdych in this match-up in my opinion. First and foremost, his form so far in this tournament has been, to say the least, poor and he could/should have been knocked out in the previous round. His first serve percentage in his last game was as low as 44% and against a player of this quality he will need to find some consistency or he is in major trouble. He never made it past his first round match at the French Open so the poor form hasn't just been over the past couple of days. Berdych's opponent on the other hand is going great and has been for a few weeks now. So far this tournament he has dispatched his challenger very comfortably and, as we all know, he had a good run at the French Open. He has had a good year all round to be fair and, had it not been for the fact he has bumped into an inspired Djokovic 3 times, it would have been even more impressive. His serve is working well and he is breaking enough times to suggest that he will pose Berdych lots of problems.
Agree with this. Troicki should be favourite in my opinion as he has destroyed both Andreev and Zverev in the previous rounds. Whilst Berdych is still in this tournament by an inch. Ruben Bemelmans had a match point against him in which Berdych won by clipping the outside of a line. Berdych then went on to win the match but has been very poor against players just ranked inside the top 200. Got to back Triocki here.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sometimes in gambling we make good bets that lose and bad bets that win..... the difficulty for future learning is that we usually say a 'win is a win' when our bets come in ...but often when we lose we chalk it down as 'poor conditions' or 'rubbish performance' and of course sometimes confess to ourselves it was a terrible bet. It's still worth pointing out though that whenever a player we back wins very comfortably we never blame the conditions or the poor performance of the opposition. I just think this is an important point in helping people learn in gambling and how important it is to be honest with oneself. e.g ' date=' If an 8-11 shot you back wins in a third set tie-break..... Is that a good bet...or if you beat an odds-on handicap by one game...E.g I Backed mattek minus 2.5 today but she won the match in third set breker... is this a good bet...I don't think is although i'M not totally sure....kindof confused . what do folks think.... am i just over-analysing....btw.... for the most part i've been really liking the tips on the site...verdasco was the tip of the day and this guy spikatto seems to know his stuff.[/quote'] A good bets a winning bet, mate :ok

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