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Atko

Tennis - June 6-12

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Cilic -3.5 vs. Bellucci @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) - LOSS
Bellucci bagels Cilic in the second set to round off a pretty miserable day for me. In the red for the week now. Looking to get back on track with a few picks from today's quarter finals, just posting this one up for now though. Gerry Weber Open - Petzschner to beat Raonic @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes) Raonic is a tremendous young player with a massive serve and a game well suited to grass but is yet to convince me on this surface because he hasn't sussed his movement out yet, similarly to Del Potro. This guy had only played two matches on grass before this week, and I think that inexperience will be shown up by Petzschner at times in today's match. The German has the superior grass court experience, and he challenged both Federer and Nadal on this surface last season. I expect the he'll target the Canadian's backhand with his slice, and if he does so to good effect, he'll draw errors from that wing. Expect to see a close encounter here, much closer than the odds suggest. Value on Petzschner.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Thanks for your philosophical views on betting. :\
:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!
Nail on the head mate :ok Can't find much to bet on today, trappy card in both events.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Nail on the head mate :ok Can't find much to bet on today, trappy card in both events.
Strange you cant find any bets Atko because this week has been my best week since the beginning of the year.When the tour vhanges surfaces like from Clay to grass bookies give great prices as they hope for upsets but this weeks tournaments have been superb. yesterday got all bets for halle and london for the singles I played and almost nailed an accumulator with 12 outright tennis bets only to be screwed by the last leg which was Miami Heat against Dallas, and the funny thing of all bets I was certain the heat would beat the Mavs, but thats gambling for you. The prices have been great Atko this week, look again. I like the exotic markets on a number of women and male bets especially overs and handicaps that Im almost certain should come through. Its a pity I have no time to type out the reasoning.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Strange you cant find any bets Atko because this week has been my best week since the beginning of the year.When the tour vhanges surfaces like from Clay to grass bookies give great prices as they hope for upsets but this weeks tournaments have been superb. yesterday got all bets for halle and london for the singles I played and almost nailed an accumulator with 12 outright tennis bets only to be screwed by the last leg which was Miami Heat against Dallas, and the funny thing of all bets I was certain the heat would beat the Mavs, but thats gambling for you. The prices have been great Atko this week, look again. I like the exotic markets on a number of women and male bets especially overs and handicaps that Im almost certain should come through. Its a pity I have no time to type out the reasoning.
I'd liken myself to horse racing trainer, I'm just not firing right now, although strangely every parlay I've played this week has won, and I'm more of a handicap better. Only one that has caught my eye in some shape or form is Verdasco. Think the price is very high, even with the handicap too. Roddick looks a shadow of the man he used to be. Problem is, Nando's a headcase. I do have Troicki, but took that yesterday.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Sport Tennis
Event Player To Win Aegon Championships
Selection Andy Roddick
Strength 5/10
Date 12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 6.39
Reasoning Player To Win Aegon Championships - Andy Roddick. In my opinion Andy Roddick can win this tournament - he plays fantastic here - won 32 matches, lost only 5. Andy Roddick won Queens Club ATP in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 - four times! He will play against Fernando Verdasco in next match. Roddick leads 9-3 in head-to-head series so I think that he will win without big problems. Andy Roddick likes play on grass - he has strong service. His service is really hard to break so I don't see many break points for his opponents. I watched Rafael Nadal against Radek Stepanek and Nadal lost one set. Murray is without big shape so I think that Roddick can win tournament in London. He plays fantastic here, won many times. I have to say that odd like 6,39 at pinnacle is great!

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Agree with Atko that today looks tricky to call in places, but I have tried to find some value and taken 3 in total. Marin Cilic vs Andy Murray- Murray -4.5 handicap- 11/10 Bet365- (4/10) Know what I said yesterday about the handicaps with Murray and I may be a complete idiot for backing him with an even bigger handicap today as it goes completely against what I said, but there's a couple of reasons I think he'll cover it today. Know Cilic picked up a knock yesterday in his match with Bellucci, and although he came through it in the end, image he'll be quite sore today and that's the one thing you can't afford to be against Murray. He'll force Cilic around the court and it he isn't fully fit, he will struggle for the majority of the lengthy rallies. Still don't have any confidence in his serve either. Against Clement it was good in parts, but awful in others, and it didn't improve too much against the Brazilian yesterday, serving only 3 aces with 5 double faults. He'll need plenty of 1st serves in against Murray to pick up cheap points and if he serves like he has done this week, Murray will pick him off. I haven't been utterly convinced with Murray this week, and he has never had it easy at all against Cilic in their matches but given Cilic's erratic nature this week, Murray will be a big step up for him and I secretly fancy the Scot to win this with ease in the end so God help me, I'll back him with the handicap. Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga +3.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga to win- 11/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Not often I go against Rafa in any tournament but I'm going against him for the second time this week. Nobody can say the Spaniard is completely fit, nor can they say he is playing particularly well. Yesterday against Stepanek he looked to be suffering from fatigue, especially in that third set where his shots were loose, and he was making tons of unforced errors. 16 break points on serve he faced and he was lucky I thought that Stepanek couldn't pick up many cheap points on serve otherwise Rafa would have been in all sorts of trouble. Tsonga on the other hand will pick up these cheap points, and he'll be fresh as anything as Llodra retired yesterday. He looked in good shape against Berrer in his first match, and although it wasn't a massive test for him, he looked to settle on the grass well enough and looked comfortable throughout. He has already beaten Nadal once before when they've played, back in the Australian Open in 2008, and he has run Nadal close on a few other ocassions so he clearly has the game to trouble the Spaniard. Nadal for some reason also played doubles last night after his match with Stepanek, so no way he'll be at his best today after a late finish last night. Tsonga won't roll over today just because it's Nadal, and he will hit through the ball with power and I secretly fancy him to repeat what Lopez did last year at this stage in beating Rafa. Tsonga will get chances on Nadal's serve and if he serves well, you can't rule him out in this one. Taken the handicap as insurance for Tsonga in case he falls just short, but taken the outright win at a one ball bookie just in case Nadal retires which I doubt, but given how much he has played recently is a slight poissibility. Tsonga will be right up for this one and I feel the Frenchman has a chance with Nadal not at his best so I'll hope he pulls through.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

:lol:lol:lol you know what the more you gamble the less you worry about semantics.when I 1st started gambling, I used to be methodical.I wanted my winings to be as a result of the workl I put in research rather than luck.I trully believed I was a calculated risk taker, sort of like a guy who trades in equities, but whjen you lose a numbetr opf bets you are certain about you learn that a great bet is a winning bet,Fullstop! gambling is a combination of Experience, Watching the sport & gut feeling.research is just another factor you can consider but it dont mean much! a good gambler is one that actually wins, not the guy with the best reasoning!
To me good reasoning and winning generally come hand in hand, so I would disagree with you there mate. The technical ability and talent of a player or team shouldn't be the only factor that's looked into. The crowd, the desire/passion to win and calmness under pressure are many of other things. I'm not saying luck in sport is rare but in tennis luck isn't that dependant on, you rarely get a bad decision like in football where there may be a goal given that was offside or a ball over the line but not seen by the linesman, or diving for penalties. Ofcourse you can get pigeons and stuff like that but that's really rare. Troicki and the ball-boy when he played Murray is another rare instance of bad luck.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

I'd liken myself to horse racing trainer, I'm just not firing right now, although strangely every parlay I've played this week has won, and I'm more of a handicap better. Only one that has caught my eye in some shape or form is Verdasco. Think the price is very high, even with the handicap too. Roddick looks a shadow of the man he used to be. Problem is, Nando's a headcase. I do have Troicki, but took that yesterday.
Nadal vs Tsonga and nando vs Roddick all scream overs to me.i might be wrong but I doubt it. I would be weary on taking outrights for outsiders unless its on handicaps because some matches could go either way.i wouldnt be surprised if Berdych beat victor, he is that type of guy so I dont normally bet on a match that involves him. Wouldn’t touch Tsonga but its on grass and Nadal is struggling so I m certain about the Over along with Vedasco match because roddick is also struggling albeit coming into form.

Hell even the match between Murray and Cilic could go over

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

To me good reasoning and winning generally come hand in hand, so I would disagree with you there mate. The technical ability and talent of a player or team shouldn't be the only factor that's looked into. The crowd, the desire/passion to win and calmness under pressure are many of other things. I'm not saying luck in sport is rare but in tennis luck isn't that dependant on, you rarely get a bad decision like in football where there may be a goal given that was offside or a ball over the line but not seen by the linesman, or diving for penalties. Ofcourse you can get pigeons and stuff like that but that's really rare. Troicki and the ball-boy when he played Murray is another rare instance of bad luck.
I bet across all sporting codes so was speaking in general.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Well, didn't think I'd get time to write this one up on here, but given the rain in London and my boredom at work, I'll do so now. AEGON Championships - Verdasco to beat Roddick @ 3 (10bet) Initially decided against this bet last night, but the drift in Verdasco's price since then has convinced me otherwise. Not been entirely convinced by Roddick this week, or throughout the season to be honest. Really enjoyed watching him over the years but I get the sense that with every passing tournament, the powerful and robust game which has brought him so much success is on the wane. Sure, he'll always fire down a fine first serve percentage and plenty of aces, but more players are managing to get those rockets back into play nowadays - even on his beloved grass courts - and the wicked forehand isn't what it once was. Verdasco isn't particularly renowned for his return game, but the slow conditions players have commented on in the last couple of days will play into his hands here - they'll take some of the zip off the Roddick serve, and I know whose groundies I'd back if these two started slogging it out at the back of the court. The Spaniard's mighty solid from the baseline when he's on his game, and I'm liking his attitude this week. Hard to back a chump against a champ, but there's plenty of value in Verdasco at 2/1.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

SportTennis
EventMattek-Sands v Barthel
SelectionBarthel
Strength10/10
Date10/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceBetfred @ 2.50
ReasoningAnother one for me today. Mattek-Sands had a big struggle yesterday against Larsson and she didn't look too good. She retired in the doubles later with a back injury so not sure on her condition. Barthel is having an excellent week. She's come through qualifying and got a couple of good wins in the main draw. In total 5 matches and she hasn't dropped a set yet. Good chance of an upset in this match I feel.

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Hi all, Just thought id drop in and give my two cents on todays quarter finals at Queens and, firstly, the third set between Ward and Querrey. I watched the match yesterday and Ward became very dominant in the second set, partly down to Querrey looking slightly injured but also due to Wards tenacity to get back into the match against such an opponent. Odds of 7/4 on Ward look well too big and if he doesnt win then I can see him going through on default because Querreys arm strain could come into play. Looking to the Quarter finals I wouldnt be looking at the favorites too much. Nadal and Murray havnt impressed me much comparred to their own high standards and Tsonga on a handicap looks the way to go. As said above Nadal looked tired and under-par which shows Tsonga to be value to take a surprise win at 2-1. If Nadal does come through then the 2-1 win for Nadal could also come into play. Murray seems at his best when his back is against the wall and for all the players returning to grass for the first time this season it is about getting the time to adjust. I wouldnt back against Murray but can see this going into the 3rd set as Cilic has been quite consistent in the last few rounds and Murray wont be in for an easy time. I think todays motto should be ' beware of the favorites' and one of these matches will see a surprise winner. Picks Ward @ 7/4 (med stakes) Tsonga on a handicap Murray 2-1 Nadal 2-1 Good luck all and enjoy your pimms! :tongue2

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Ward is now 1-7 to win in-play!!!!!
Just a little word of advise' date= James Ward is a dangerous player on grass and possesses a big serve, do not underestimate the kid, he could very well sneak a tie-break and anything could happen from there... Querrey is known to implode against lower ranked players when he isn't quite getting his way. Belluci is another dangerous bet if you ask me. I like Troicki to beat Berdych today however, plus handicap is a must.... Anyways.. I've left off all bet today aside from Hewitt 2-0, too unpredictable today's matches.... very 50/50 ... even Anderson could cause Roddick problems...
Did say. :dude

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Looks like going against a player that did not offer a single breakpoint in the match with Dolgopolov was a sloppy idea :wall edit: Hope Berdy will collapse and gets me into black numbers today edit2: Kohlschreiber vs (presumably) Monfils should have nice odds - going to back Kohli in this

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Hewitt vs Kolschreiber - Gerry Webber Open (Halle) - Hewitt to win - 8/13 - Paddy Power - Strength 8/10 - Moderately big stakes

The only reason Kolly is priced so favorably here is home turf, the guy is by no means a grass courter, he has a base-line game suited to medium paced hard-courts and on his day can beat just about anybody outside the top 5. Right now, with the form he's in, his day isn't coming around any time soon, he'll need to have an amazing day to outwit one of the smartest grass courters of the modern era. Hewitt means business, he knows his injury has caused him to slip heavily down the rankings, making a menz on grass his best surface is something he knows he must do in order to save himself from the ordeal of battling through qualifiers just to play in 1000/slam events. Hewitt will outwit and out hustle Kolschreiber a guy who isn't as buoyed by German support as most would initially assume he is.

LOST. :sad Kolschreiber had one of his days and Hewitt isn't as back to form on grass as I first believed, way too passive, he was waiting for Kolschreiber to miss, hardly ever dictated the play, didn't even attempt it, just kept on trying to counter attack. Really pissed off ATM, more than you would believe, had Roddick, Hewitt, Troicki and Petzchner all in a £20 accumulator.....

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Re: Tennis - June 6-12

LOST. :sad Kolschreiber had one of his days and Hewitt isn't as back to form on grass as I first believed, way too passive, he was waiting for Kolschreiber to miss, hardly ever dictated the play, didn't even attempt it, just kept on trying to counter attack. Really pissed off ATM, more than you would believe, had Roddick, Hewitt, Troicki and Petzchner all in a £20 accumulator.....
You just summed up how I feel right now. Hewitt, on some day looks like a formidable figure on grass court and next day he delivers a below par performance like this one. Whats more pathetic than his game was that he hardly tried to control the play. Pathetic display of tennis from him but now I have accepted the fact that he plays his tennis this way only. Thats the reason he is such an under-achiever:@

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