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About b10111

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/11/1982
  1. Re: Quarter-Final - Argentina v Belgium > Saturday July 5th To be frank Belgium arent impressive at all and have the best players in every positrion means absolutely nothing in the world cup.Its how the team plays as a team(e.g Columbia) Its hard to guaghe Argentina as someone has already said that they have only played teams that sat back except nigeria. Any team can struggle against that sort of tactic including Brazil.This game can frankly go either way and although I fancy Belgium to create more chances Im not convinced they can easily win this by any stretch of the imagination.Nerves come into this along with big game players.If this game is 0-0 in the 75th minute expect Belgium to sit back and start marking Messi in threes hoping for extra time. If belgium score first in the first half and score again on the counter they will win.If this game goes to extra time Argentina will win.It all comes down to who scores first. A 0-0 going into half time suits Argentina as Belgium will back of as Messi and Di maria turn on the after burners. The issue is does Belgium have enough goal threat to score enough games to put this game to bed? I'm not convinced.They will create chances but like any other newcomer on the scene will not have the guts or courage to finish Argentina of.
  2. Re: Barcelona v Milan > Tue 12th March Game went as expected.For a moment everybody forgot barca have the finest plkayer on the planet and the best midfielder in Iniesta.Milan played as well as they could.Cant fault the defence because its not like Barca created 15 chances, they scored from almost all their shots. Bottom line is if you have the ball most of the time your chances of winning are higher, doesnt matter what people say.
  3. Re: Barcelona v Milan > Tue 12th March Hi.I havent posted in a while. I must say I was shocked to see that the bookies had made Barca underdogs to qualify for the quarter finals.Granted the champions league has changed a lot in the last 5 years but the truth of the matter is 5 years ago with a 2 goal deficit, the home team would be overwhelming favourite.Only a 3 goal deficit was considered unrecoverable but I remember Deportivo Lo Coruna overtunrning a 3 goal deficit.A lot has changed in recent times, away teams have some form of advantage as most teams are setup to counter attack but I think a few things have been missed with regards to the odds being offered by bookies regarding the Milan and Barca game. Firstly when you check the outright odds to win the competition, Barca are 3rd favourites behind Bayern and Real Madrid.Milan are a distant 6th.Nobody has faith in this Milan team and if you look at the game itself the first goal shouldnt have counted.Granted Barca are ponderous without a hint of penetration but reports of a crisis are based on 3 games in which 2 of them they were comfortable until they conceded the goals. Im not sure what constitutes a crisis but in the cold light of day Barcerlona have the best player in the world, the finest goal getter in world football (Messi) and the best midfielder in Iniesta.What does Milan Have? Yes they will be organised defensively and Barca will struggle, like they did against Chelsea last season but what tools do Milan have to make them favourites to qualify?Chelsea had luck, what does Milan have really? A lot of people say if Milan scores Barca need to score 4 , but will Milan score? Actually only way I can see Milan qualify is if they score because they will not hold out for 90 minutes. The way I see this game going is Milan will hope to hit Barca on the counter but I think Barca defence will be a lot more organised and will deal with them easily unless Milan score from a setpiece. Barca will win this match 2-0 in 90 minutes and eliminate AC Milan in extra time. 13/10 for Barcelona to qualify is too much in my opinion especially when you consider the seasons the respective team have had.Milan has been poor until the last 6 weeks, while Barca have been imperious until the last 2 weeks. It almost feels like a no brainer to me.
  4. Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Any cheeky accumulators? I know the aussie open has shocks but as long as you back a favourite that knows how to serve you should be fine, especially ATP players!
  5. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December The exotic market has caught my eye The group winner and to Qualify bets have some really tasty odds.I cant quite post all of them here but sportingbet has Porto to win group at 6/1 Chelsea to win group at 4/1 Borussia dortmund to qualify at 26/1:loon man City to qualify at 4/1 Now if Porto wins their game and Apoel fails to beat Shakhter Donetsk then porto are group winners.I have faith in this scenario.Apoel have qualified and as much as they would want to end the group on top, from experience these matches dont quite work out that way. same reason i have faith that man city will beat bayern and napoli will draw or lose to villareal. Its not like napoli has to turn up in spain and collect 3 points, they actually have to earn it and thats were the imbalance of the odds come in.i suspect that game will be a draw and city will win and go through. The most interesting scenario is dortmund to qualify at 26/1.it can happen.I know they would have to score quite a number of goals to prop their goal difference but it can be done and i have faith. The last one is chelsea to win the group.bookies have levekusen as favourites but Im not convinced the germans can win in Belgium.I suspect they will leave with a draw and If chelsea beat valencia they qualify as group winners. the champions league has been brutal for punters and very competitive.i think these odds are great value.
  6. Re: France - Ligue 1 - 18-20 November I will be frank and say Ligue 1 has been a gamblers dream this season.Its been so unreal its even confusing the bookkies who dont know whjat to expect anymore.With all the draws and Under 2.5 results looks like this season is about goals and wins. What I like best about Ligue 1 is that home teams never dispappoint unless if its Ajaccio ,Bordeaux and Dijon. I expect the trend to continue hence +1 on Toulouse looks really intersting.Cant see Lille winning this game.Toulouse are difficult to break down but hardly the most enterprisng team.I expect a draw but I will look elsewhere. Caen at 1.66 to beat Ajaccio looks good on the eye.I know it goes aginst my home theory but Ajaccio are so bad they even lost at home to Bordeaux. Caen had a flying start and have slowed down in recent weeks but I can still see them put a numver past this Ajaccio side.I hope the break can bring Caen much needed impetus to get all 3 points. I also fancy Valenciennes to beat Auxerre although the draw threat always exists in a game involving Auxerre.Stade Brest should also beat a plucky Sochaux and I also expect Marsielle to come unstuck at Montpellier but I can shake the feeling of a draw. Lyon should be at most 1.7 so 1.87 to beat a plucky Rennes is a gift.Rennes will make it difficult but Lyon have the tools to get the win. I have made quite a lot onthe Both Teams to Score market as Bookies still have last seasons hangover with reagrds to goals in this league. I see potential Both teams to score in the Valenciennes vs Auxerre match, Nice vs St Ettiene, Ajaccio vs Caen and Stade Brest vs Sochaux match
  7. Re: Belgium - Jupiler League - 18-20 November Can someone tell me why the bookies under value Mons.Not that Im saying 1.85 is a truckload but I still feel its a nailed on win.Maybe there is something Im not picking up:unsure To those who like risky bets I think Oud-Heverlee is a gift at 5.0. I will probably go for the Both Teams to Score option but I must say cant see Liege winning this game. Kortijk could also surprise Gent but 2.3 is too low for the risk so I think I might go for the nailed on Both Teams to Score option.Genk should pulverise Westerloo, but then again it never quite works out that way:lol Thoughts for this weekend?What effect will the international break have?
  8. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 18-20 November I absolutely hate betting on the Bundesliga especially outrights.It is so unpredictable which is a shame when you compare with the 2nd division.Unless you go for Both teams to Score on good weekends or other exotic markets you are bound to make losses. However I cant resist 2 bets this weekend. away to looks tasty. I know isn’t the most reliable team but there are 3 things to consider.and maybe Hertha to win at
  9. Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November gee whiz the odds for St Pauli and 1860 Munich look tasty:p Okay I dont qquite trust Munich but Inglostadt are that bad, but however because I try not to play bets against I think I will go for the following St Pauli,Fortuna Dusseldorf, Paderborn on the outright and Eintracht Frankfurt HT win. I might go for Dresden as I like them when thety play in front of their fans. Fortuna Dusseldorf might be tricky but I believe they will eventually subdue Union.Those are my early thought and reasoning will follow later. I would like to hear what resident experts like Benny think!
  10. Re: Champions League > Wednesday 19th October Its weekday 3 of what has been a difficult European season so far, hard to judge exotic bets such as HT or asian handicaps as some teams underperform or just don’t turn up like Man united and Barca in their home games. The other thing to note is that a lot of teams appear to be evenly matched however predicting a draw is a bit difficult hence the Both teams to score market is the best shelve in my opinion. One thing about football is because it is essentially difficult to predict outcomes correctly one thing you can almost guarantee is that teams will score goals as that is their main aim so the goals market always looks great. I see goals in the FC Basel vs Benfica Match and Lille vs Intermilan match. I wouldn’t be surprised if CSKA Moscow and Trabzonspor has goals in it aswell. CSKA are defending like amateurs at the moment. Zagreb vs Ajax ans Real vs Lyon could also potentially be BTS but I will stay away.
  11. Re: UEFA Europa League 20th Oct The trouble with this tournament is you can identify the gap in quality between 2 teams but somehow an upset occurs or they underperform because it is soo hard to judge mindset. I have lost a lot of money on europa and champions league games this season (barcelona & man united & Man city) because a lot of teams are struggling to transfer league form to europe. Having said that all competitions go into their 3rd week so motivation is not an issue anymore, just time to seperate the men from the boys. Club brugge is a gift.I would have them at 1.5 I normally dont bet against british teams because some of their players play witrh a certain level of p[assion that covers up for their lack of ability but Birmingham is in turmoil, so they cant win by motivation, they will have to go out and beat a really good belgian side and i will be shocked if Brugge dont bash them. I like Rennes to beat a really strange Celtic team but its really hard to know what to get from Neil lennons men so they have become a no bet for me, in the same category with teams like Inter milan and Napoli. Just stay away. Metalist are always great away from home and like Anderlecht are a must play, however malmo has picked up form recently so i might go for Both teams to score. I believe Stoke, AZ Alkmar, Spurs,Sporting, Atl Bilbao & PAOK should all win easily however I will only be taking Alkmar,Stoke & Spurs. Dont quite trust the rest. A couple of away wins at good prices are PSV to beat Hapoel, PSG to beat Bratislava, Braga to beat Maribor & Twente to beat Odense. A couple of Both teams to score I really like are Hapoel vs PSV Zurich vs Lazio Malmo vs Metalist Maccabi Haifa vs Steau Bucharesti Udinese vs Atletico madrid I will post my final picks tomorrow while these great prices are still available!
  12. Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September The best reasoning I have seen in a long time. Week one lost me a l,ot of money because barcelona and manchester City failed to win what looked like straight forward games. I think a lot has changed in europe in the last 2 seasons.the italian teams look stronger, Bayern are back, Benfica look solid and we have a new team called mancity that can beat any team in my opinion. I know there is nothing like a banker but the Marseille, CSKA and Valencia game are draws by all means. An out of form CSKA against an inter side that will only come for a point because of injuries and suspension. A Marseille team struggling for form against a Dortmund side that just doesn’t take their chances. I’m thinking both teams to score in the Valencia game as Chelsea’s defense is leaky and I think Torres and Drogba will cause Valencia problems as well. Benfica should bash Otelul but having said that it wont happen.I think there is valuein almost all the games this week including europa. I n seasons past it was just easy to go for the home win but I think this time there will be a number of surprise results and now is the time to capitalize. I will do most of my betting in play
  13. Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September The odds against Tottenham are a joke.the same team that beat Liverpool convincingly at anfield last season.Seems bookies are buying the King kenny hype when its clear to see liverpool should never be favourites against any premiership team away from home, and yes that includes Swansea and Norwich. Anyway I expect Adebayor and company to win this easily.The best liverpool can play for is a draw but with an expectant Home crowd I can see spurs win this easily. Gift of the weekend in my opinion.
  14. Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 I have been loving this in play betting, especially when you are watching the games at the same time. Like last night in the Tsonga vs Fish game,when tsonga won the 1st set I bet on Fish to level, and when Fish took the next 2 sets and started tiring I bet on Tsonga to win the match. The minimum odds I was going for were 3.3 but I would wadger low stakes each time. It works like a charm when you are confident about a certain player then they lose the 1set, you then lump on them to win the game and the profits are huge. I can confidently do it without watching a game for players like Nadal,Djoko,Serena, players you know will always win doesnt matter how bad the start especially if they are playing mental midgets. I want to do it for live televised football games especially when reliable teams like barca,Real,Man utd fall behind or havent scored at half time. Its pure value
  15. Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 27-28 August Hardest premiership card I have ever seen.I agree even with the crisis United should be minimum 1.7, I mean spurs were quoted at 1.65 for crying out loud. Joke offerings and Im sure a lot of punters will be embarassed if Arsenal escape with the draw or even a win. I really want to give draws a go this season.I had a go last week and only managed to hit the Stoke game but I missed out on the Villa game and the arsenal game.the Arsenal game would have been a draw if it wasnt for the own goal but thats a moot point to be honest. Another joke offering is the odds for Liverpool, I wouldnt go against them especially if Suarez plays but if he is not on the lineup whats on offer is simply a joke.