Leadbelly Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Rather uninspiring set of odds for today's stage. Difficult to see a break succeeding - only chance might be that after yesterday when HTC seemed to bring the break back too early, they might over compensate and misjudge it. Can't see it happening though. Hinault (151 ew with Bet365) Been kicking around the top ten in sprint finishes. Think 4th is his best so far, but will probably need a bit of luck to get in the top 3 today - but stranger things have happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Looking much better for Cav green now. Must say I hope he gets it, not really a fan of the way Gilbert would win the classification. Onto Bastille day, where we have the first big mountain stage. Hard to know how it will play out, though if history is any indication this year the break will be brought back by Leopard. Teejay Van Garderen @ 201 Bet365 I have a feeling he's eying off polka and he said he'd try to get into the break the day after Costa won (he was in the break with Costa). He's not a GC threat and looks to be a fairly decent climber who I'm happy to back at these odds as he'd be one of my Top 10 picks to win from a break. Pierre Rolland @ 151 Bet365 Being on Voeckler's team may or may not hurt him. Europcar aren't capable of controlling the breaks tomorrow and Voeckler has said retaining yellow is unlikely. It is, of course, Bastille Day, and Europcar being a french team must surely try to win on this day. Not digging Charteau's form and like Rolland to attack on Bastille Day, as he did last year when Paulinho won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Jerome Coppel @ 151 Bet365 Being Bastile day and a HC finish I can see Coppel attacking. Saur have been almost invisible this tour and if it weren't for Coppel, the big new hope of French cycling, I doubt he'd be in the tour. He's over 6mins down now so should just about have enough leeway to get himself into a break. Promising young climber who definitely has the ability to win from a break, should one be allowed to get away. Yuri Trofimov @ 201 Bet365 Katusha don't have a GC man (Karpets has no chance) so they should look for the break tomorrow. With Kolobnev gone Trofimov is the only rider I feel capable of winning from a break on the Russian team and at these odds I'll happily back him to do just that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Voeckler seemed pretty serious about the 1 KOM point near the end of Tuesday's stage. I wonder if there's any chance the yellow jersey might try to get in a breakaway tomorrow to get into polka dot colours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Voeckler seemed pretty serious about the 1 KOM point near the end of Tuesday's stage. I wonder if there's any chance the yellow jersey might try to get in a breakaway tomorrow to get into polka dot colours. But in contrast he seemed to just give them to Johnny Hoogerland on Sunday? Saying that he is French and this is Bastille Day so you probably couldn't rule out him going off in a breakaway. Would be interesting if he does because the peloton would have to make sure he doesn't get out of their control. Really looking forward to tomorrows stage :beer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 But in contrast he seemed to just give them to Johnny Hoogerland on Sunday? Saying that he is French and this is Bastille Day so you probably couldn't rule out him going off in a breakaway. Would be interesting if he does because the peloton would have to make sure he doesn't get out of their control. Really looking forward to tomorrows stage :beer. Voeckler and Hoogerland made a deal after the first climb as Hoogerland got annoyed that Voeckler also went for points, so they agreed that Hoogerland would get the 'points', in return Hoogerland would collaborate in the break away so Voeckler would gain yellow. I expect Voeckler to stay in the leaders group and try not to lose more then 2 min 30 secs on Evans and Andy, space on Contador is obviously a bit wider. Will be difficult, but its not impossible to maintain yellow. On the 14th of July that would be something much liked by the French. Stage after tomorrow is not that difficult, and for a team like Europcar the extra money and publicity are much welcome? Obviously Voeckler would have massive balls to attack, and that would be quite spectacular, still probably not very wise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Looking forward to this. Not convinced that a break will succeed today and some riders who might have gone for it might keep their powder dry for tomorrow's stage which looks much more likely for a break away win. F. Schleck (15 with Bet365) Guess this is my cover bet if the GC contenders catch the break. The Schlecks surely must try and see today how Contador reacts if they attack - if his knee is still a bit dodgy then you've got to make hay while the sun shines. Don't know if it's very sporting or not, but there's no point waiting till the Alps and giving him some more recovery time. Riblon (81 with Bet365) Yes Charles de Gaulle, Johnny Halliday and Catherine Deneuve seemingly want to get in the break today. Can a Frenchman do it though on Bastille Day? Riblon won a stage last year in the Pyrennes so he has previous. Di Gregorio (81 with Bet365) You'd think either Remi or Tiralongo will try and be the Astana rider in the break. Like Crouchy said the other day stage wins is all they have left to ride for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I just took a little bit of 8 on Kreuziger to win KOM on Betfair. Today's stage makes up a fair chunk of the available points, plus he'll have more incentive than others to chase it. He's way back on GC. I figure there's a shot that he won't get caught today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah, the minute he went off I thought that might be part of his plan. I actually backed him a small amount late to win the stage today at good odds, but I've nothing on him for KOTM, so I'm in two minds as to whether I want him to win or not :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Kreuziger was nearly across when Thomas attacked. Might have been different had Roman made it. I guess Thomas didn't want him there. Oh well.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Contador losing more time and Frank looking much stronger than Andy. This is shaping up to be quite an interesting battle. Disappointing to see Taaramae get dropped though. Thought he was a chance with Gesink gone but Jeannesson looking good for white. Happy to see both Sanchez and Frank do fairly well in KOTM though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Not as good a price as you guys, but is 6 for Sammy Sanchez on Betfair a good bet now? I've taken a tiny bit (just messing around with this competition really - I've pretty much locked up my winnings for the tour now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Coco man, I don't think its worth taking Sanchez, he's between 2 and 3 mins down on the other main contenders - the Schlecks and Evans - and he's still ranked behind Contador. Sanchez is also a shitty time trialist - even slightly worse then the Schlecks? Despite this win I'm not that impressed with his performance today as he didn't manage to drop Vanendert - not a top climber - and lost quite some time in last 3-4K as Frank almost managed to catch them. So Sanchez surely a top 5 guy, but I don't believe that he can aim for more. Great win though and a very clever attack in the downhill, it took the Eurosport guys only 15 mins to realise that Sanchez had attacked - gotta love those idiots -http://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/clap.gif I believe that Kreuziger didn't have the legs, he was also quite stupid to drop Chavanel as he could have used him. In the end he finished 17 mins behind Sanchez, it proves again that its impossible to combine Giro and Tour, although Contador could still prove me wrong, I've never seen him in such a poor shape. Kiriyienka and Gadret went home, Petacchi is in a terrible shape, etc .... list is surely longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I meant Sanchez for the King of the Mountains competition. I agree with your point about the Giro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Ok apologies, yes I agree, it could be worth going for, although I'm not sure if he's interested in the jersey. At the moment I'd expect a 'nobody' like Vanendert to be more keen on winning KoM. Personally I can still see value on Contador 7/1 to win the Tour - but probably a bit biased as Bertie has been very good to me in the past. I know his form isn't there, but after his crash it can only improve. If his twitter msg isn't too depressing I might have a fun bet on my Spanish friend. It could become a very weird Tour, as Andy doesn't seem to be as good as last year. I mean this was the moment to destroy Contador, instead of taking 13 small seconds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Based on what I saw today I would imagine Frank Schleck should be the favourite for KOTM. I agree that Vanendert is more likely to go for it but so many points are on the final HC climbs, and despite his efforts today he realistically needs to be one of the top 4-5 over them to win, and I can't see him repeating that feat. Frank Schleck looks quite easily to be the best climber in the tour right now, but it is still early days, so I wont go claiming him a favourite for yellow (though glad I did back him the other day). Tomorrow's stage I think has 40pts available from the 1 final climb, so how that plays out might provide some pointers as to who is going for KOTM. If Sanchez actively chases KOTM then he will win it for sure. If a GC climber falls into, I think Frank Schleck looks your best bet. As for the outsiders, Vanendert is a logical choice. If Moncoutie goes tomorrow he still might surge into contention. What we do know is that those outside riders who have scored so far just don't seem able to win it - Jeremy Roy wont, Voeckler is focusing on keeping yellow and likely wont be allowed to go into breaks when he loses it and Hoogerland is just too beat up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I believe it's actually 20 points for the last climb tomorrow. Unless I'm mistaken, double points are only given for mountain top finishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I believe it's actually 20 points for the last climb tomorrow. Unless I'm mistaken' date=' double points are only given for mountain top finishes.[/quote'] Of course, I was forgetting about the changes to that rule. Will happily accept that though, as neither Sammy or Frank would likely have been there. Tomorrow SHOULD be a break, but with Gilbert eying off green and Rojas probably as well I'm not so sure that those two teams wont try and keep it together? At the very least maybe they'll try and limit the size of the break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Agreed, with the new KoM point system you'd expect a consistent top 10 guy to win it in the end. And indeed, you don't expect Vanendert to finish top 10 day after day (really cannot see that happening), while Sanchez will always finish around the 5th spot.... but lots of speculation with that jersey. That's why I don't like to bet on KoM ;-) For tomorrow I wouldn't exclude a bunch sprint with 50 or 60 riders. Surely there will be breakaways but as the top of the Aubisque is 42K from the finish line, lots of riders will come back in the descent. I expect a quite passive ride from the favorites, as Saturday's profile is way more interesting. Could be a stage for Gilbert, Rojas, Hagen and Husvhod, although it will be almost impossible to control the stage in final kilometres, as the sprinters might lack enough helpers to control it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Here is the maximum points available to a single rider on the remaining stages: Stage 13 - 23 points Stage 14 - 32 points + 40 HC MTF Stage 17 - 24 points Stage 18 - 40 points + 40 HC MTF Stage 19 - 30 points + 40 HC MTF So you have 149 non MTF points remaining compared to 120 for 3x HC MTF's. It would be a tough, tough ask to be in the break on all those stages to claim the pre-MTF points, and even then, if all 3 HC MTF's were to be contested by the favourites then Frank Schleck, if he scored 3x 2nd's, would still amass himself 96pts, to go with his 24 currently. He probably wont get that many of the 120 MTF available, but even if he gets say, 72, then you are looking at about 100pts to win KOTM. Venendert already has 32 so if he really wants it, I think he can do it, because stage 18 has 2x HC's before the MTF, and he could pick up other points along the way. Anyone who isn't Vanendert or possibly Jeremy Roy, though, would have to basically pick up near on 90pts to win, and I can't see that happening. Nor do I see Roy claiming it. You would have to be a very attacking rider and get into the breaks on virtually every day to win this competition as a non GC rider. And, of course, you would have to be interested in winning it. Given there were 30pts available today prior to the final climb, and no rider took maximum points over both, you would have thought there aren't many riders who have KOTM in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 David Moncoutie @ 34 Sportingbet A stage win is surely the objective for Cofidis and Moncoutie and tomorrow represents a good chance for a break to win. Moncoutie is well down on GC so should have plenty of latitude to look for the escape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Stage 13: Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 15 - Betfred, Willhill With Bradley Wiggans out of the race, and Edvald and Thomas out of the white jersey, Sky have had to drastically shift their focus towards one thing: stage wins. Both Hagen and Thomas were told today to either go for the break-away or sit back and relax (and they'll be given the same orders tomorrow); Thomas went and Boasson hung back, but the Norwegian did look strong (and has looked strong all week), and I think he'll make a solid attempt at a break-away tomorrow. He didn't waste a lot of energy today and seems full of confidence. If he manages to get away early with some riders outside of the GC, I think he has a solid chance. The long downhill finish at the end means that several brake away groups will probably join up before the finish, and of them Boasson Hagen is by far the better sprinter. If it ends in a sprint between 30 riders, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the clear favourite to win it. I also considered Hushovd, but even though he may be in the form of his life for this Tour, I think the fight for yellow tired him out, and he said he was extremely tired after today's stage. Still though, he is one of the absolute best downhill riders on the Tour, and if he's not too far back at the top, he might well catch them on the way down.. Betfred and Sportingbet are offering odds of 34. Can you tell I'm Norwegian? Nahh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Thanks for the Norwegian info. Very interesting. Didn't know that Hushovd is starting to feel his legs. Would be good if he'd sit with main bunch next days as I have taken a quite big bet on Cancellara vs Hushovd for GC at the start of the race, something that's not looking too good, but well ;-) For tomorrow I really like Rojas Gil 34/1, if he wants to he's a top 35-50 climber and today he was sitting in the bus, as its also important for green I think that tomorrows stage could make or break his chances for that jersey. But obviously there's a 50 % chance that a breakaway will make it till the end, and if one of the favorites attacks - chances are quite slim tho - then all of the above is just theory. Talking about green. That race could be more interesting then the market believes as quite a lot of upcoming intermediate sprints are after a climb where Cav could be dropped (stage 14, 16, 17, 19). Rojas and Gilbert could/should also score points at the finish of stage 13, 16 and 17 whereas Cav will surely finish with zero points at the end of the day. So the race for green could be tighter then the market believes, still in his current form no one will beat Cav in Montpellier and Champs Elysées. So Cav still the main favorite, but current prizes overrate his chances somewhat. Rojas 8/1 is a bet for me. I will take Gilbert once his prize further drops, I hope that Cav wins the intermediate tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Sandy Casar @ 38 Betfair This is the type of stage where Casar has excelled in the past. Mountain in the middle with a downhill portion and a flat last few kms. He won a stage with a similar profile last year and again in the couple of years prior to that. Teejay Van Garderen @ 81 Centrebet The American looked good in his earlier break and tried to attack the following day too. With today looking more likely for a break than any previous stage I expect to see him try again today. Rui Costa @ 101 Centrebet Costa rode in with the autobus yesterday and his mind is no doubt on another stage win. He said as much in an article the other day and with the break expected to succeed today and Arroyo seemingly struggling I think Costa should be the Movistar man best equipped to challenge for a win. Grega Bole @ 101 Centrebet This stage reminds me a bit of the one that Arvesen won a couple of years backed when I backed Ballan at 201 and he sprinted the finish and didn't win :eyes Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that this is the kind of finish where a sprintish type like Bole could easily survive in the break. Lampre have disappointed save for Cunego this tour and should look for a stage win by getting in the break today, and Bole is the rider from that team that most appeals to me. Should the stage end in a sprint Bole might get to contest that too. Carlos Barredo @ 51 Centrebet Poor tour for Rabobank save for Luis Leon's win. Gesink is obviously out of things and I expect Rabobank to try for the break. Luis Leon is again favoured by the books and I can't really fault that, but for me the better value lies with Barredo, who was in the break on a similar stage last year (Armstrong and Horner were in the break that Pierrick Fedrigo won from). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Great riding from Leopard Trek yesterday, maybe the Schleck attacks could have come a bit earlier though. Basso looks strong - amazing considering how awful he looked a few weeks back. Following Jens on the Eddy Boass pick. Wasn't too sure whether to go with him or Gerrans today as both were taking it very easy yesterday. Tomorrow might be more of a day for the Australian though. Devenyns (67 with Bet365) Quite surprised that he got tailed off so quickly yesterday from the main group. Maybe he got told to take it easy since Chavenal was going on the attack. Think he's got a bit of a kick as well if it comes to a small group finish. Mollema (101 with Bet365) Crouchy's going for Baredo, I'm going for Mollema with pretty much the same reasoning. Took it easy yesterday and hopefully should still have plenty in the legs. Could pick about 10 other guys, but just keeping it to three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Couple more breakaway sprinters for me: Marco Marcato @ 81 Betchoice Expect Vaconsoleil to attack today and whilst I'm not sure Marcato has the skills to survive the climb he does have the sprint finish to win from a break. That's enough for me to take a punt on a riders whose team will surely look for today's break. Daniel Oss @ 90 Betfair Oss looked for the break the other day and I think might try again today. He's a very fast sprinter -- not fast enough to win the flat stage sprints but enough to place in the Top 10, which will be more than enough to win from a break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Why is Anthony Roux 190 at Betfair and 40 everywhere else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Stage 13: Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 15 - Betfred, Willhill With Bradley Wiggans out of the race, and Edvald and Thomas out of the white jersey, Sky have had to drastically shift their focus towards one thing: stage wins. Both Hagen and Thomas were told today to either go for the break-away or sit back and relax (and they'll be given the same orders tomorrow); Thomas went and Boasson hung back, but the Norwegian did look strong (and has looked strong all week), and I think he'll make a solid attempt at a break-away tomorrow. He didn't waste a lot of energy today and seems full of confidence. If he manages to get away early with some riders outside of the GC, I think he has a solid chance. The long downhill finish at the end means that several brake away groups will probably join up before the finish, and of them Boasson Hagen is by far the better sprinter. If it ends in a sprint between 30 riders, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the clear favourite to win it. I also considered Hushovd, but even though he may be in the form of his life for this Tour, I think the fight for yellow tired him out, and he said he was extremely tired after today's stage. Still though, he is one of the absolute best downhill riders on the Tour, and if he's not too far back at the top, he might well catch them on the way down.. Betfred and Sportingbet are offering odds of 34. Can you tell I'm Norwegian? Nahh Both are in the break-away! :loon For you live-betters, be wary of jumping on Hushovd to early. Like I said, he was tired after yesterday, and his coach just tweeted this: "Thor had a tough day yesterday. Today, he was going to 'sniff' at a break-away, but the plan was to save energy for next week. We'll see what happens" Mind, he can afford a pretty decent gap to the front at the top, his downhill riding skills are immense. Also, he reached the top of this mountain easily with the big GC guys last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Amazing effort by the Norwegians. Are you taking over the world!? Would make Boasson Hagen a big favourite from here though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Amazing effort by the Norwegians. Are you taking over the world!? Would make Boasson Hagen a big favourite from here though! To quote the Norwegian commentator as Hagen crossed the line to win his first stage: "We own the world of cycling" :lol Hagen would indeed be the big favourite at this point. What Petacchi is doing there I have no idea.. No chance on the green and surely not on the stage either? Looks like they might let this one go, now that Rojas and Gilbert are out.. No big names for the GC in it, no guys especially close to the yellow.. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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