andrewcalo

Hahaha, I am coming just to say cheers and to throw a bone.  Besides.. great stuff @andrewcalo.  
Otherwise this league is still tough to watch for me. Seeing league leaders playing football with 9 players in the box, trying with 3-4 counters in 90 minutes, wingers are playing as wing backs, is making me cry. That's not for me, and I sincerely hope that football won't move into this direction, because I will start watching volleyball in this case.   Well, I don't like that, but some of you guys do, and it looks that it works in PL. But as long as it works, I won't try to be smart with some analysis, because it's more clear than anywhere, that you don't need the ball to win the match (and the league). Are stats of Chelsea and last year Leicester much different? 
For me, league is still overrated. Squad of Man. City is disaster, key arrivals are injured, while 90% of players are above 30 years. I don't know what is Guardiola thinking, but it's obviously in football (for me) that you cannot change 80% of first eleven in one season, and City needs exactly that. Except 4-5 players, all others are "rubbish". There is too many second choice players. On the other hand United is relying on 36-year old player, and it looks that Mou wants him to extend contract for one year, which is another "stupid" move for me. My favourite team here is Tottenham. I hope that they will win the league. They should have done it already in last season... 
 
Well.. I guess, that I don't understand this league, and that's all.  Peace out! 

My numbers say to take Swans-Spurs o1 in 1H, so I've taken it. The numbers also say NOT to take the same bet in Chelsea-City. I'll almost certainly stay away even if it seems the better match for first-half goals.

Now @andrewcalo- you wouldn't have just signed up under a different username would you?  Try to use a more mysterious email address next time, than starting with andrewcalo....  This account will self destruct within the next 24 hours...

Or, you know, zero.

Apprenticeships are alot better than University anyway!! 

Will have to follow you on this big stakes. You're a trusted and respected tipper with a keen eye for a Cup winner.
Edit: Just stuck the wife and kids on it. 

Haha! Quality ... i've only just clocked on, I've only just noticed the extra "8" on the username of that account!! 
 

I've taken o1 first half in the Leicester-Sunderland match. I see the home side on their front foot early; whether there are 1 or 2 in the back of the net early remains to be seen.

I don't see them all winning,I'm not convinced by a Burnley win,Stoke has been mediocre on the road but neither has Burnley been convincing over late.I will wait till the final line ups comes out.
 

I'm with @andrewcalo on this. I find draws can be calculated. Frequently, you can see when two teams might cancel each other out. If sides are struggling to score then a draw is always a good option. I've won money off a draw outright pick quite a lot. In fact, after BTTS five folds, I would say a draw outright bet has given me the most success.

I know punters who just won't entertain picking draws in their bets, but there is some serious value to be had sometimes, in fact a lot of the time!
I don't buy into it's a lucky tip because you can back a team to win, they got totally hammered in the match and get away with a lucky goal - isn't that a lucky bet also?
Thoughts? Who likes backing draws in what look like competitive matches?

Iceman is playing but lion king is not. 

Arsenal seven of the last eight games was more than three goals and six to score both teams. Total has 19 to 27 over 2,5 and 8 to 13 over 2,5 home. Manchester City has a total 18 to 28 over 2,5 and 10 to 14 over 2,5 away from the stadium. I expect to give it all to win, I expect a lot of goals in the game
ARSENAL FC vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.57

Thanks for the mention, but I was way off this weekend.
Sunderland must really rue the day Allardyce became England manager. Trade him in and land up with an overpaid, underskilled manager like David Moyes. Clueless in terms of motivating, or getting a team fired up. The Man United job proved to be way to big for him, but he has shown no ability in the two posts after that. In what kind of sick world does a decent, yet hopelessly out of his depth, man earn 9 million pounds for 8 months work. How F___d up is this world ?  NEWCASTLE will have the last laugh, as they pass SUNDERLAND going in the other direction. I don't think that Sunderland will find an automatic promotion spot next season. In Moyes they have a lead balloon, that could anchor them to the Championship for a few seasons to come...
Jose Mourinho made me laugh today. Every time I see that bushy haired octopus (Fellaini), in the starting line-up, I know they are doomed. Can you name a worse player that played so many games for Man United ? Bebe, or maybe Mark Bosnic ? Fellani just has nothing.  No pace. No Skill. No engine. No clue. 
He is Man United's most consistent player this season. Consistently useless on all levels.
Then Mourinho hauls his only hope of breaking WBA down (Mikatarian) off. WTF is that ? Surely you don't need to play 2 holding midfielders against an average team like WBA, at home ?  What exactly is plan - B ? Is there a plan B ? 
How many goals have United scored from the 500 crosses they have made this season ?  Maybe 5 .... no more than 8. What kind of style is playing at zero speed, shipping the ball sideways, and aimlessly crossing the ball. This style of play is brutal, and boring and fkg dreadful.
Then he makes some ridic remark about how only one team wanted to play. Get real, Fergie had to deal with that for 20 years and he figured out how. Go and ask him for a lesson !!!
 
 
 

So that's what @andrewcalo gets up to at weekends!

Surprised so many of you are finding value in Spurs at that price. I like the other side of that bet at the current line. We're all aware of Burnley's home record and the international break may have put a dent in the away team's prolific form. 5.75
No reason not to take a resurgent Leicester at home against an inconsistent Stoke. 2.05
I like U2.5 for Chelsea/Crystal Palace. The Champions-elect may also have lost some rhythm due to the break and Sam has got Palace's defence ticking - 1 goal conceded in their last four. 2.00
My last bet is Swansea at home. Trust Paul Clement to have got his teeth into the recent poor results and have his side very well prepared for this. Don't think Agnew is the man to inspire a Boro side in freefall - 1 goal in their last 5 PL games going into this one. 2.00

No messing about this week either. Has to be Tottenham at 6/10, can't see them slipping up here. Spurs look superb at the moment and should have far too much for Burnley who haven't won a game in ages.

i'm not sure about your concept. you don't have to be from particular country to select the best one team. i follow all leagues equally and i don't like the word banker as i can pick more than one team from each league who i think has 70-80% chance to win in my head and odds may vary from low to high. if i was playing singles as much as acca's i would be winning 90 percent of times but it's risky as i don't want bookies limiting my future stakes. i think we should have a weekly accumulator thread so everyone can give their top 2-3 picks from top fives league in europe and combine them in their acca at their own discretion. let's try it out.
i will give you mine and others feel free to contribute. let's nail this accumulator
premier league
tottenham, southampton,
bundesliga
leverkusen, 
serie a
roma, fiorentina, torino
ligue 1
marseille, lyon
la liga
atletico madrid, sevilla, real sociedad
 
£20 returns £3000

I'm in.
Scottish banker this weekend,   Celtic 4/9.

Apparently, you have been pilling yours off more than usual lately (According to your recent post)
 Which just confirms what we have all thought about you for a long time..........

BOOM BOOM

I give up!!!!

Absolutely despise International football both for betting on and watching but my arms been pulled.
Serbia
Croatia
Iceland
Italy
@3.98

There are plenty of factors to take in to consideration when putting money on teams.
Form, sentiment of team, what they have to win/lose and of course statistics.
Form is easy to trace, team news usually gives answers to their morale and sentiment and their league positioning speaks towards the win/lose scenarios.
Statistics are my bread and butter and I want to share a few useful links here. 
 
The Stats Don't Lie This website has stats on football and horse racing. 
I only use it for football where you can compare globally, the best teams based on the factors chosen such as BTTS, Overs/Under etc.
Of particular interest and kinda special to this website are:
BTTS and win Early goals Scored first Scored in both halves Win to nil O1.5 team goals The list goes on and on...
 
    2. FootyStats
Similar website to above with a lot of similar metrics.
The interface is much better however as you can sort by league and most BTTS, average goals, form at home vs away etc.
Of particular interest:
Daily games with form Average stats between teams H2H Overs/unders, results, BTTS, HT results etc. Total percentages of the above correlated to their opponent giving an average Own metrics of home advantage vs away advantage -> how their performances differ between home and away Average goals by months, 10 minute or 15 minute increments Frequent scorelines A lot of useful ones there.
  
    3. WhoScored
This is a well known one.
The only reason I use WhoScored is for form, bookie prices and most importantly, match specific absences (injuries or suspensions).
They cover previews for big leagues and they are decent but I wouldn't follow the correct score previews.
Finally, I am not affiliated with any of these sites.
I hope you find them useful 
 
p.s. drop any useful websites in this thread.

Chris Gunter hat trick! Don't Mark my words! 

I agree with both of you @andrewcalo and @Simeon Borisof.. there is value on away sides for sure. For Wales I took +0,25 (Whole analysis here!) while I am still considering about the best choice for Netherland. For now I am pretty close to AH -1. But we have time, as I think that odds won't go anywhere. 
p.s. There is nothing to wait.. Going with Oranje -1 as well. (Whole analysis here)