Weekend > Apr 1st & 2nd

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

There is a bit of a gap between now and the next set of Premier League fixtures due to the international break. However, always worth getting the chat started early to hear thoughts on the fixtures.

@Mindfulness, the toughest of games for you this round. Both yourselves and Chelsea have won your last three games. Something has to give! Is there any hope at your end that you can take something from the game?

@andrewcalo, a game at home that you surely have to win to stave off the fear of relegation. Two defeats on the trot against teams you would have thought you could beat. What do you think this time around?

@WinningAdvice, you backed City to win last round but it was a 1-1 draw. What are you looking at this time?

@sajtion, mixed bag for you last weekend mate. You got the Palace prediction spot on which was a great spot. What is taking your pick this round?

@allyhibs, no messing about. Straight in with the Chelsea win and rightly so. What will you be backing here?

@KikoCy, you certainly had more positive results than negative this week. Keen to get your thoughts on this round of games.

@mrclubbie, you made a good call on the Everton game. A lot of people backing Hull to take something from that. Any bets planned here?

@rashers, great to welcome a new face to the mix last weekend. Interested to hear your views on these matches.

@DW_United, slightly off week for you with the Middlesbrough and Liverpool bets not quite coming in. Totally understand the logic behind those calls. I actually backed both too. Especially the under 2.5 goals wager. What is taking your fancy here?

@allthethings, you suspected West Brom might be the value of the weekend and you were right. Who are you tipping this round?

@KingSoccertips, business-like betting from you last weekend. No screwing around. Chelsea win. Boom. Done. What about this round?

@CloughandTaylor, always good to have you involved in the chat as well. Bang on with the BTTS. Another one not keen to back Arsenal and rightly so. What do you think this round?

@Bett, a wise choice to stay clear of an outright market in the Manchester City versus Liverpool match. You came through with the BTTS bet. Well played. What do you think for these matches?

@betcatalog, you also profited from the BTTS market in that game. What games take your fancy here?

@vasilli07, incorrectly backing a City win. Tsk, tsk!  What is your bet for these games?

@Tiffy, try not to flirt with rashers this time and get your bet down! 

Also keen to hear from some Premier League old school contributors that haven't posted in a while such as @sandrasuzuki, @owenclass, @neilovan, @BettingCitizen, @pulsar12, @hypnotic, @crowbot, @JackOfOneTrade, @tipstersgottalent, @FTHQ15, @rjw209, @De Graaf, and @Soi Bongkot.

[Tiffy]

@StevieDay1983

@Tiffy, try not to flirt with rashers this time and get your bet down! 

Jealousy gets you nowhere!........

 

[WinningAdvice]

The Merseyside Derby and Arsenal vs City look interesting.

Definitely backing Liverpool for a win. Thinking of placing a bet on Asian handicap but still having doubts. For now it's a simple 1x2 bet for a Liverpool win.

On the other hand, it's a City win for me. Correct score of 0-1.

[StevieDay1983]

Right, the inconvenience of the international break is now out of the way. What do we think about these games?

@WinningAdvice, I'm steering clear of the Arsenal versus Manchester City game. This is the exact sort of game where Arsenal buck the trend and go all out and surprise us. However, that's previous seasons. I don't trust them to beat their own winkies off right now! I would tend to agree with you that it could be a narrow win for City but I just don't trust Arsenal at all.

[sajtion]

why not put some money on arsenal if you think that

[andrewcalo]

They couldn't pull their own winkies off if you ask me.

[Tiffy]

20 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

They couldn't pull their own winkies off if you ask me.

Apparently, you have been pilling yours off more than usual lately (According to your recent post)

 Which just confirms what we have all thought about you for a long time..........

BOOM BOOM

Edited March 28, 2017 by Tiffy

[allyhibs]

No messing about this week either. Has to be Tottenham at 6/10, can't see them slipping up here. Spurs look superb at the moment and should have far too much for Burnley who haven't won a game in ages.

[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, allyhibs said:

No messing about this week either. Has to be Tottenham at 6/10, can't see them slipping up here. Spurs look superb at the moment and should have far too much for Burnley who haven't won a game in ages.

That's short value considering Burnley have such a decent home record. Leicester to beat Stoke at 2.00 seems too good to be true right now!

[andrewcalo]

@StevieDay1983 I thought that at first ... But now I think that might end in a draw.

I'm looking at Palace to hold Chelsea. Feel there's a surprise somewhere at the top and this might be it. @Mindfulness what you think? Big Sam's got the back lines taut right now.

Edited March 29, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Dylan Lynch]

Anyway think on a draw for  West Ham vs Leicester

 

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

@StevieDay1983 I thought that at first ... But now I think that might end in a draw.

I'm looking at Palace to hold Chelsea. Feel there's a surprise somewhere at the top and this might be it. @Mindfulness what you think? Big Sam's got the back lines taut right now.

I'm just waiting for the advanced previews to come out on whoscored but I definitely agree with you that a big team fade could be on the cards for this weekend. International breaks can cause problems for teams with a high number of call-ups (normally the big teams), we should always look to exploit injuries and fatigue in these situations.

I will post again once I've got more team news but I like the way you're thinking here.

[allyhibs]

20 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

That's short value considering Burnley have such a decent home record. Leicester to beat Stoke at 2.00 seems too good to be true right now!

I know the odds aren't great Stevie but it looks a similar bet to the Chelsea win last time out. There's something about Spurs at the moment that makes them unmissable imo.

[andrewcalo]

On 3/28/2017, 3:19:25, Tiffy said:

Apparently, you have been pilling yours off more than usual lately (According to your recent post)

 Which just confirms what we have all thought about you for a long time..........

BOOM BOOM

My optometrist was really surprised to see my prescription change for the worse AGAIN - third time this month lol

Edited March 29, 2017 by andrewcalo

[andrewcalo]

10 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

I'm just waiting for the advanced previews to come out on whoscored but I definitely agree with you that a big team fade could be on the cards for this weekend. International breaks can cause problems for teams with a high number of call-ups (normally the big teams), we should always look to exploit injuries and fatigue in these situations.

I will post again once I've got more team news but I like the way you're thinking here.

Remember that game where Villa drew with Leicester last January? They were winning one nil until the death and Villa got lucky...

Palace are 11 to 1 !!!!!!!

[andrewcalo]

The tipster I love is on the 'Pool -1 ... so maybe Liverpool to win? After the last international break they flew important players back quickly too and then drew with Southampton 0-0. Also, Coleman being out might not be such a big deal with Ashley Williams around...any thoughts?

 

[Mindfulness]

4 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

The tipster I love is on the 'Pool -1 ... so maybe Liverpool to win? After the last international break they flew important players back quickly too and then drew with Southampton 0-0. Also, Coleman being out might not be such a big deal with Ashley Williams around...any thoughts?

 

 

I'd like to see the lineups before betting on this game with the fate of Coutinho, Firmino & Ribeniho still in the balance after flying over the Bermuda triangle. Liverpool @ 1.74 is too short imo, should be more like 1.90 - EVS. It's true that Everton are particularly vulnerable to quick and skillful attacks - especially if Barry plays DM - but they have enough to hurt Liverpool themselves. I actually have Everton +1 on my shortlist but will probably leave it as it's a big derby game right after the international break which makes it very dicey.

[vasilli07]

Swansea -0.5. They are being dragged back in the thick of the relegation fight after 2 losses in a row. The sacking of Aitor Karanka came too late for Boro and I don't think they have enough goals in them. They totally need to change their playing style as well, defensive to a more attacking side. 

[Duuc]

I feel like Leicester got their groove back, @2.05 is a good price at home against Stoke that really doesn't impress me whatsoever. What is everyone's take on this game? 

 

Edited March 30, 2017 by Duuc

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

I'd like to see the lineups before betting on this game with the fate of Coutinho, Firmino & Ribeniho still in the balance after flying over the Bermuda triangle. Liverpool @ 1.74 is too short imo, should be more like 1.90 - EVS. It's true that Everton are particularly vulnerable to quick and skillful attacks - especially if Barry plays DM - but they have enough to hurt Liverpool themselves. I actually have Everton +1 on my shortlist but will probably leave it as it's a big derby game right after the international break which makes it very dicey.

Yes, this is the exact sort of game that Liverpool will lose where they are such heavy favourites. I think the injury to Seamus Coleman will spur the Everton players on even more now. I agree, that value is way too short. I think a draw is a better bet. Does anyone have a stat on Klopp's record in derby matches?

[KikoCy]

Away for the weekend and not a lot of time to do a write up - please do your own research gentlemen.

Liverpool - Everton: BTTS @ 1.65

Arsenal - City: BTTS @ 1.533

Swansea - Middlesbrough: 1 @ 1.952

Watford - Sunderland: X2 or Sunderland +1 EH @ 1.952

[zemo91]

Hi guys,I'm a new member of this forum.Honestly I don't like the odds the bookies are giving,they are not being generous at all apart from the Leicester game. Will probably play a three game acca  liverpool-everton bts,arsenal-city bts and Tottenham to win. Singles: Leicester to win,Swansea win  .I have a feeling that Everton can take something at Anfield,the odds are way to high on Everton,draw@ 4,10 Everton+1,5@1,45 probably something I would use in a acca. Alexis Sanchez to score @ 2,70 is a no brainer for me.those are not final picks just my thoughts on this moment. I think for this weekend Spain is a better place to look for value,some interesting games in la Liga and secunda division

[andrewcalo]

Spurs look attractive this week, as do Swansea.

BTTS market might be good value this week, just got a feeling on that...

 

[Bronxie]

Surprised so many of you are finding value in Spurs at that price. I like the other side of that bet at the current line. We're all aware of Burnley's home record and the international break may have put a dent in the away team's prolific form. 5.75

No reason not to take a resurgent Leicester at home against an inconsistent Stoke. 2.05

I like U2.5 for Chelsea/Crystal Palace. The Champions-elect may also have lost some rhythm due to the break and Sam has got Palace's defence ticking - 1 goal conceded in their last four. 2.00

My last bet is Swansea at home. Trust Paul Clement to have got his teeth into the recent poor results and have his side very well prepared for this. Don't think Agnew is the man to inspire a Boro side in freefall - 1 goal in their last 5 PL games going into this one. 2.00

[andrewcalo]

1 hour ago, Bronxie said:

"Surprised so many of you are finding value in Spurs at that price. I like the other side of that bet at the current line. We're all aware of Burnley's home record and the international break may have put a dent in the away team's prolific form. 5.75"

I put Spurs in the same camp as Man City when it comes to this away fixture - I don't think Burnley can hold them.

 

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, zemo91 said:

Hi guys,I'm a new member of this forum.Honestly I don't like the odds the bookies are giving,they are not being generous at all apart from the Leicester game. Will probably play a three game acca  liverpool-everton bts,arsenal-city bts and Tottenham to win. Singles: Leicester to win,Swansea win  .I have a feeling that Everton can take something at Anfield,the odds are way to high on Everton,draw@ 4,10 Everton+1,5@1,45 probably something I would use in a acca. Alexis Sanchez to score @ 2,70 is a no brainer for me.those are not final picks just my thoughts on this moment. I think for this weekend Spain is a better place to look for value,some interesting games in la Liga and secunda division

Welcome to the forum mate! 

Some interesting points there. I can certainly see your view. The Leicester game is the one standing out for me. I'm not convinced by Alexis Sanchez right now. Something isn't right behind the scenes. That said, at almost 3.00 he is tempting value. I can see Arsenal scoring against Manchester City (because most teams do) so it's just a case of whether he is one of those that do score in that game for the Gunners. Does Sanchez deliver performances in the big games? Arsenal's record against the top six is appalling.

[Sm0k3rZ]

i think man city away is definitely value here..how motivated would arsenal be? with all the troubles at the club..i doubt the players will show up. Plus this game would be treated as a curtain raiser to the FA cup semi later on this month. both teams would try to get a psychological advantage before they meet in the semi. 2.30 for a city win looks tempting for small punt.

[Tiffy]

20 hours ago, Duuc said:

I feel like Leicester got their groove back, @2.05 is a good price at home against Stoke that really doesn't impress me whatsoever. What is everyone's take on this game? 

 

My thoughts exactly

[Mindfulness]

Chelsea V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +1.75 @ 1.775 (Matchbook)

Palace are a fair bit bigger than I can make them here. Palace +1 line should be around 2.2 imo but instead we're getting around 2.9 which opens the door for a standard value bet in this situation.

No real need to blabber on as I've already posted a fair amount about an improving Palace in recent weeks. We really do look like a proper Allardyce team now; confident, organised and hard to beat.

Chelsea are of course the best team in the league this season and they do have the ability to crush anyone by 3 or 4 so punters opposing them with big handicaps can still get slapped in the face without too much complaint. 

I feel I have to get involved here given the situation and the market price. We get half draw cover in the event of Palace trailing by a goal late on and getting hit by a sucker punch counter when pushing for the equaliser.

Team news hasn't thrown up any suprises.

Be interested to see how this one goes.