Snoopdog

Baracca,  I recall hearing in the early days of PL tips that 3 doubles was working better than 1 treble. I don't know about recently. It should impove the strike rate (if not ROI) which keeps up interest. I'm interested to know myself as I was going to advise this as an automatic system bet for the other half to get into this game.

Hi everyone, 
I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 
So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...
With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.
Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75
Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26
David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50
Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88
Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93
Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25
And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were
2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5
2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25
2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26
2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13
 
As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.

Bob, (some more),
I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?

Bob, (some more),
I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?

Bob, (some more),
I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?

These are announced at ~ 6.25am and 7.25am. They are provided by (I think) Luke Harvey.
Well 2017 is over and the verdict is in for 2017.
£1 each on 595 selections would leave you £85 down.
 
Billy, Tell them you can do a better job.
 

I thought this group needed a posting!
Tonight is a Sky night from Towcester.
Here's my "Big Dummies" guide to picking a greyhound or two when you are clueless, but want a little action / entertainment. Simply take common picks from the Racing Post and SL.
8.51 RP says 362(nb), SL says 362 (nb).  At 0830, 3 was 11/8 with PP.
9.08 RP says 216 , SL says 214 (nap). At 0830, 2 was 6/4 with PP.
The previous Sky night at Perry Bar, it also found 2 pix - one loser, one 2/1 winner.
If tonight's fail, blame RP and SL!
Favourite tracks: Bradford-Greenfield (anybody remember it?), Leeds-Elland Rd, Walthamstow. I haven't decided on current ones!
Favourite dogs: Roxholme Magic, Westmead Hawk.

I thought this group needed a posting!
Tonight is a Sky night from Towcester.
Here's my "Big Dummies" guide to picking a greyhound or two when you are clueless, but want a little action / entertainment. Simply take common picks from the Racing Post and SL.
8.51 RP says 362(nb), SL says 362 (nb).  At 0830, 3 was 11/8 with PP.
9.08 RP says 216 , SL says 214 (nap). At 0830, 2 was 6/4 with PP.
The previous Sky night at Perry Bar, it also found 2 pix - one loser, one 2/1 winner.
If tonight's fail, blame RP and SL!
Favourite tracks: Bradford-Greenfield (anybody remember it?), Leeds-Elland Rd, Walthamstow. I haven't decided on current ones!
Favourite dogs: Roxholme Magic, Westmead Hawk.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

Billy H,
Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.
We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.
I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.
Keep up the good work.

What can you say.... I watched in awe, the mouth wide open when Frankie pressed the "Turbo button" and Enable made minced beef of top class opposition. Frankie gave her a no-nonsense ride. He had all the options, yes, but you need to stay cool enough to make the "right" decisions when the whole world is on your shoulders. John Gosden, how does he get these horses bang there again and again? Long season.... who cares. Enable certainly didn't. 
We use the word "superstar" way too loosely these days, but this filly is it in its true meaning. Hope she stays in training. Flat racing needs these horses we can connect on an emotional basis.

Here's the Guardian's review which is like the book boiled down to a few pages:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/sep/13/harry-findlay-the-dog-professional-punter-gambler-train-fare-mum

Harry Findlay - Gambling for Life, available discounted at Amazon.
Overall I give it 7.5/10. It's more a biography (as intended), and you wont get many/any betting hints. It's certainly a lot more interesting and believable than Patrick Veitch's book.
His main winning strategy has been to recognise sports superstars early - Federer, T Woods, Navratalova, etc, the keep betting them. Also totally dominant teams, eg New Zealand rugby which he lost a fortune on. I was disappointed we didn't hear or get more of his strategies that he supposedly honed when in prison (using stolen credit cards to buy booze, then sell on). He says he made lots when Asian Handicaps started, but no explanation how.
Not too impressed with borrowing off pals and relations to bet after being down to zero - but if it worked then .....
I share his view that big odds-on can be value. I've done OK betting T20 cricket at half time on 1/6 chances; also on 4x and 5x accas on the hot-pots in the early stages of Wimbledon for net odds of about evens.
He's had a colourful life (I couldn't take the pressure of going "all-in", then being down to zero) and has met most of the sports superstars. He'd be a great dinner guest. Buy it. It will probably make hime more money than some of his biggest winners.
I've often thought At the Races needs a sports betting chat show (they have plenty time to fill in). He'd be a great regular guest, along with Derek McGovern.

Harry Findlay - Gambling for Life, available discounted at Amazon.
Overall I give it 7.5/10. It's more a biography (as intended), and you wont get many/any betting hints. It's certainly a lot more interesting and believable than Patrick Veitch's book.
His main winning strategy has been to recognise sports superstars early - Federer, T Woods, Navratalova, etc, the keep betting them. Also totally dominant teams, eg New Zealand rugby which he lost a fortune on. I was disappointed we didn't hear or get more of his strategies that he supposedly honed when in prison (using stolen credit cards to buy booze, then sell on). He says he made lots when Asian Handicaps started, but no explanation how.
Not too impressed with borrowing off pals and relations to bet after being down to zero - but if it worked then .....
I share his view that big odds-on can be value. I've done OK betting T20 cricket at half time on 1/6 chances; also on 4x and 5x accas on the hot-pots in the early stages of Wimbledon for net odds of about evens.
He's had a colourful life (I couldn't take the pressure of going "all-in", then being down to zero) and has met most of the sports superstars. He'd be a great dinner guest. Buy it. It will probably make hime more money than some of his biggest winners.
I've often thought At the Races needs a sports betting chat show (they have plenty time to fill in). He'd be a great regular guest, along with Derek McGovern.

Guidance (of dubious quality) available here:
https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton
$1500 to enter this contest and the pix are online Sunday morning. Also after a couple of weeks the pix of the top 10 contestants. Two years ago the top 5 pix went 5-0 in week one. That's about a 30/1 acca
http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/247348/week-1-nfl-nation-predictions-bet-big-on-falcons-titans-and-packers
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks
Anyway, here's my week 1 pix:
Pitt -8.5, Tenn -3, Cincy -3, Houston -5, Atlanta -6, LA Rams -4.5  All approx 10/11 with PP.
I have a limited attention span so love to watch RedZone which is also commercial free.
 

Noted thanks.

What a fabulous dilemma lol ....I've fallen into this trap myself but only had a 12x wager so managed to scrape out of it with a 100 quid profit in the end .....I think if I was in your position I'd probably concentrate on the 2/1 favs in horse races where the next horse in the betting is twice the price  of the favs...generally a fav will have a 30% strike rate in an long stream of bets so for every 10 bets you make (500pts)...you can realistically expect to win 2.5-3 times (3x  50pt bets at 2/1 returns 450pts approx )
So over your 64 bets period if luck is with you then at worst you'll lose 600 pts allowing you to escape with 400 quid and if you go on a good winning run possibly much more .....anything is a risk but I think that's what id do but very good luck to you whatever you decide let us know how you got on for better or worse as its a fascinating dilemma !!
Or as pirate above states .....bet your 50pt bet and lay it as close to the price as poss then you'll lose just a couple hundred at most over a series of bets .........
With the favs system I stated earlier if luck smiles on you and you average just 4 winners in every 10 races you'd walk away with approx 1600 quid after 64 bets !!....

Forgot to mention if I have a 2,3 or 4   1/2 teams, and I don't fancy -1 for the game, I will do a few doubles - but no trebles or higher.

Yes, I like -1 for home big favs. I rarely do -1 on away teams.
I like DNB for away slight favs.
Tnx for the ratings

Pretty good, Sir P.
Win 4; lose 1; money back 1. Certainly better than my miserable efforts the first two weeks. Actually I was really temped to make WBA draw no bet, but the drop to 8/13 was below my acceptability - mistake.
Stevie, your Cardiff did the business, but only 8/11.
I'll have another go next weekend at least. Then American Football starts.

My football picks have been pathetic so far this season, so I'm giving the "Electric Light Orchestra" a shot.
Just looking at English Prem and Champ, also Scott Prem. Looking at biggest deltas on ELO, and as it fits with my idea of best value bet.
All one point:
Man U  -1  @ 10/11
WBA @ 7/5
Hull @ 4/5
Cardiff @ 8/11
Hamilton @ 11/10 (draw no bet)
Aberdeen @ 4/6
Good luck to us both.