Help needed...!

[Dave1982]

Hi,

I need some help (dare I say a strategy?!).

I don’t bet often and I opened an account last week to bet on the boxing – not a sport I know a lot about, but didn’t see how Mayweather could lose. The account (with Winner) I opened offered a ‘free bet’ (you can see where this is going), which I took and also wagered on the boxing. I understood that there would be stipulations on the ‘free’ bit, but I thought that it would separate my money and the free element (I’m sure that’s what has happened on similar other accounts I’ve opened). But it actually means I can’t extract any cash until I meet their wagering requirements, which is annoying.

My pot stands at about a grand, on the basis of the boxing and an 11/1 bet I made on WI beating England in the cricket (the only sport I follow very closely, and know a lot about).

So the exam question is; what can I bet on that will erode the pot as little as possible, while meeting their wagering requirements? I accept there will probably be some losses.

Their wagering requirements are:

·        I have to put £3.2k through the account

·        Bets have to be £50 or less (so I can’t just make a couple of high stake bets). So it will need to be a minimum of 64 bets (I haven’t made that many sporting bets in my life)

·        Bets have to be on things that have odds of between 2/1 – 11/1. So can’t be total certainties.

·        They have to be on different sporting events (so I can’t make lots of £50 bets on the same game, or race, even if they are on different things about it)

·        They have to be on sports (not casino etc, otherwise I would put 64 x bets on ‘red’ on roulette, and accept that the 0 would erode a few per cent over the period)

I therefore need some advice on sporting events that could enable me to do the above without losing too much. I need sport with enough ‘churn’, ie enough events that I can place 64 bets that doesn’t take years! I know about Test cricket, but that will take a decade – there just aren’t enough games!

My initial thought has been horse racing (I know nothing about horses). I’ve been finding races where there are one or two big favourites (even big favourites do seem to be evens or longer odds) and betting £50 on them. The favourites do seem to be favourites for a reason, and tend to be close to winning.

Any other ideas?

 

Thanks in advance.

Ps. I appreciate this might be something that has been discussed ad nauseam on here

Pps. I also appreciate I should have read the terms and conditions properly.

[Pirate53]

Hi Dave,

Have been in your position a few times in the past! The best way is to extricate the money gradually by losing at the bookie and winning at an exchange. You may end up losing 1 to 5% or so of it in commission but there are countless arbs out there to back and lay without loss or even a small profit. Look at Odds Monkey to find arbing opportunities. Hope this helps.

[richard-westwood]

What a fabulous dilemma lol ....I've fallen into this trap myself but only had a 12x wager so managed to scrape out of it with a 100 quid profit in the end .....I think if I was in your position I'd probably concentrate on the 2/1 favs in horse races where the next horse in the betting is twice the price  of the favs...generally a fav will have a 30% strike rate in an long stream of bets so for every 10 bets you make (500pts)...you can realistically expect to win 2.5-3 times (3x  50pt bets at 2/1 returns 450pts approx )

So over your 64 bets period if luck is with you then at worst you'll lose 600 pts allowing you to escape with 400 quid and if you go on a good winning run possibly much more .....anything is a risk but I think that's what id do but very good luck to you whatever you decide let us know how you got on for better or worse as its a fascinating dilemma !!

Or as pirate above states .....bet your 50pt bet and lay it as close to the price as poss then you'll lose just a couple hundred at most over a series of bets .........

With the favs system I stated earlier if luck smiles on you and you average just 4 winners in every 10 races you'd walk away with approx 1600 quid after 64 bets !!....

Edited September 1, 2017 by richard-westwood

[Dave1982]

Thanks both. 

Ive just looked up what arb means (!) and that is Interesting.

If I bet more than once on the same event it will only take the first wager into account  so I'd need to bet multiples of £50 on the race horse race - if that's that the arb relates to (I may be using that term incorrectly!).

The second suggestion is what I've been doing for the last 48 hours. Choosing races where their is an evens favourite, and the rest look like they're 6/1 or more. The first day it went well, and yesterday it went badly. But I suppose that's the nature of things.

yor maths concurs with mine. I figured I'd need a 30% win rate to be about even - and even is great! But when you're putting £50 bets on a losing streak could wipe it out quickly.

The last couple of days I've just gone through the day's racing - while having a coffee at work - finding odds like I've described above and putting £700 on for the day. Then see how it gets on at the end.

 

[richard-westwood]

30 minutes ago, Dave1982 said:

Thanks both. 

Ive just looked up what arb means (!) and that is Interesting.

If I bet more than once on the same event it will only take the first wager into account  so I'd need to bet multiples of £50 on the race horse race - if that's that the arb relates to (I may be using that term incorrectly!).

The second suggestion is what I've been doing for the last 48 hours. Choosing races where their is an evens favourite, and the rest look like they're 6/1 or more. The first day it went well, and yesterday it went badly. But I suppose that's the nature of things.

yor maths concurs with mine. I figured I'd need a 30% win rate to be about even - and even is great! But when you're putting £50 bets on a losing streak could wipe it out quickly.

The last couple of days I've just gone through the day's racing - while having a coffee at work - finding odds like I've described above and putting £700 on for the day. Then see how it gets on at the end.

 

Just watch the rules ...if your betting requirement needs 2/1 + and your betting around evens they won't count and your taking the risk for nothing ......the safest method is to just lay each bet you make on betfair ...you can't really lose that way ...just means stumping up the cash in the mean time but you'll come out on top in the end 

Back at 3.0 and lay at 3.1 if u can and only bet if you can .... and you'll lose 3-400 pts max over your 64 bets ....so if you've 1000 you'll check out with around 550-600 pts guaranteed not a bad result 

Edited September 1, 2017 by richard-westwood

[Dave1982]

Excellent advice. Thanks. 

[corky]

do you have friends that bet reguarly on £50 stakes?

if so sell 3 shares for £500 each,and the 4 of you could "invest" the rest and share any wins

not encouraging and only bet what you can afford to lose