BOB PATRICK

Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot?

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Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot? i notice on Friday at DUNDALK  the jackpot for all 6 winners paid £102.70. There was only £826 in the pool! A £1 accumulator would have paid around £960! It was even worse when I noticed it a couple of weeks ago. There was £4000 in the pool and there were 40 winners (yes I am aware someone could have more than one ticket .) So each winning ticket got £100 The accumulator at SP WOULD HAVE PAID £9000! If it was me I would  have been absolutely distraught! I remember a long time ago that high numbers had a massive advantage in Sandown sprints.me and all my mates from my local pub went for a day out at York races (which is where I am from). I wanted a tri-cast on 3 High drawn stalls at Sandown, but could not find a bookie who would take the bet, so I had a trifecta on the tote instead. They came in at ridiculous prices, 33-1, 20-1 10-1, I think. i was ecstatic. I reckoned I had won in the region of £6000. I told all my mates from the pub that every drink was on me that night. When the dividend came through it was absolutely disgusting. Something like £200. Whether that was because there was no money in the pool or loads of other people had got it I never found out. needless to say I had to apologise to all my friends (and secretly go to the toilet to cry into a towel). In general i reckon the tote is a waste of time. There was a time when the Tote was extremely lucrative in some ways. There used to be the tote dual forecast. If you picked 2 horses to be first and second you got it either way round for just one bet instead of 2. If you wanted to do a double with forecasts in 2 different races it was still only 1 bet  or a treble etc in a Tote bookies (now taken over by BetFred). Now to do a reverse forecast treble is 8 bets. Now you may be thinking, ah, yes but the dividend would be half or worse. Not with high prices it wasn't. (Most of the time). You could perm (say) 5 horses which is 10 bets but nowadays it would be 20 bets, and where as a double with 5 horses in 2 races reversed is now 20X20 = 400 bets! What's more you didn't even have to put it through the tote machine, you could just write it on a betting slip! The best result I ever had was in race 1 the fav and an outsider  and same in race 2. I had a £5 double. The favourite won both races and the outsider in each was second. It paid £1500 for a fiver. The same rev f/cast bet would have cost £20 and would probably have paid around £800 (so 40-1). Of course I got over 300-1. Sadly those days are gone, I just like sharing my memories with anyone who is interested and you'll never catch me doing the tote Jackpot!

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The tote Jackpot was @ Newcastle on 9/3/18 and had a Prize fund of 10k which was not won.

Are you talking of the placepot?

As the minimum starting amount is always known beforehand with the Jackpot.

Todays Jackpot is @ Warwick and starts at a minimum of 10k.

So if the average price of the 6 selections in your line is less than  6√10,000 = 4.65 or around the 7/2 to 15/8 mark you are getting fair return IF you are the sole winner, If not a fair price or you expect several to win, why would you even consider the bet just back as a straight Acca.

I don't play the jackpot but do play the Scoop 6 when large +EV situations arise usually at the big meetings with large amounts going into the pool plus the fallback of the place dividend being over inflated and covering/beating the initial bet outlay.

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7 hours ago, BOB PATRICK said:

Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot? i notice on Friday at DUNDALK  the jackpot for all 6 winners paid £102.70. There was only £826 in the pool! A £1 accumulator would have paid around £960! It was even worse when I noticed it a couple of weeks ago. There was £4000 in the pool and there were 40 winners (yes I am aware someone could have more than one ticket .) So each winning ticket got £100 The accumulator at SP WOULD HAVE PAID £9000! If it was me I would  have been absolutely distraught! I remember a long time ago that high numbers had a massive advantage in Sandown sprints.me and all my mates from my local pub went for a day out at York races (which is where I am from). I wanted a tri-cast on 3 High drawn stalls at Sandown, but could not find a bookie who would take the bet, so I had a trifecta on the tote instead. They came in at ridiculous prices, 33-1, 20-1 10-1, I think. i was ecstatic. I reckoned I had won in the region of £6000. I told all my mates from the pub that every drink was on me that night. When the dividend came through it was absolutely disgusting. Something like £200. Whether that was because there was no money in the pool or loads of other people had got it I never found out. needless to say I had to apologise to all my friends (and secretly go to the toilet to cry into a towel). In general i reckon the tote is a waste of time. There was a time when the Tote was extremely lucrative in some ways. There used to be the tote dual forecast. If you picked 2 horses to be first and second you got it either way round for just one bet instead of 2. If you wanted to do a double with forecasts in 2 different races it was still only 1 bet  or a treble etc in a Tote bookies (now taken over by BetFred). Now to do a reverse forecast treble is 8 bets. Now you may be thinking, ah, yes but the dividend would be half or worse. Not with high prices it wasn't. (Most of the time). You could perm (say) 5 horses which is 10 bets but nowadays it would be 20 bets, and where as a double with 5 horses in 2 races reversed is now 20X20 = 400 bets! What's more you didn't even have to put it through the tote machine, you could just write it on a betting slip! The best result I ever had was in race 1 the fav and an outsider  and same in race 2. I had a £5 double. The favourite won both races and the outsider in each was second. It paid £1500 for a fiver. The same rev f/cast bet would have cost £20 and would probably have paid around £800 (so 40-1). Of course I got over 300-1. Sadly those days are gone, I just like sharing my memories with anyone who is interested and you'll never catch me doing the tote Jackpot!

I think you would get more replies if you learnt how to have more than one paragraph in your posts.

In answer to your question the answer is "no" unless there is a very large pool brought forward from previous meetings.

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I don't like rude people. I came on hear to enjoy my re-kindled hobby. Small minded  rude people like you who have nothing constructive to say are just a waste of time to me. if I want to meet small minded idiots I can just go out to the pubs in town. i have a wealth of experience to share but I don't think I'll bother now. I know more about horse racing than you could ever know. fcuk off.

Edited by BOB PATRICK

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4 hours ago, BOB PATRICK said:

I don't like rude people. I came on hear to enjoy my re-kindled hobby. Small minded  rude people like you who have nothing constructive to say are just a waste of time to me. if I want to meet small minded idiots I can just go out to the pubs in town. i have a wealth of experience to share but I don't think I'll bother now. I know more about horse racing than you could ever know. fcuk off.

Bob, so you are going to throw in the towel just because you dont like one reply to your post?

Alastair can be a bit sharp shall we say, but he does have a point. Copying posts from word or similar can look awful to the eye when posted into a different format.

Come on mate, its a public forum what do you expect. If you ask for replies you will unfortunately not like all of them. You should see some of the replies i get.

Lets have some winners from you at Cheltenham:ok

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22 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Bob, so you are going to throw in the towel just because you dont like one reply to your post?

Alastair can be a bit sharp shall we say, but he does have a point. Copying posts from word or similar can look awful to the eye when posted into a different format.

Come on mate, its a public forum what do you expect. If you ask for replies you will unfortunately not like all of them. You should see some of the replies i get.

Lets have some winners from you at Cheltenham:ok

Firstly I don't copy it from word. Secondly Richard-Westwood wrote a very nice post which I answered to last night.

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On 11/03/2018 at 10:58 AM, Valiant Thor said:

The tote Jackpot was @ Newcastle on 9/3/18 and had a Prize fund of 10k which was not won.

Are you talking of the placepot?

As the minimum starting amount is always known beforehand with the Jackpot.

Todays Jackpot is @ Warwick and starts at a minimum of 10k.

So if the average price of the 6 selections in your line is less than  6√10,000 = 4.65 or around the 7/2 to 15/8 mark you are getting fair return IF you are the sole winner, If not a fair price or you expect several to win, why would you even consider the bet just back as a straight Acca.

I don't play the jackpot but do play the Scoop 6 when large +EV situations arise usually at the big meetings with large amounts going into the pool plus the fallback of the place dividend being over inflated and covering/beating the initial bet outlay.

 

 

I know the difference between a place pot and a jackpot. I don't even know why you would insult my intelligence like that. 

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1 hour ago, BOB PATRICK said:

I know the difference between a place pot and a jackpot. I don't even know why you would insult my intelligence like that.

Seeing as you mention the Placepot, I've often thought a Place Only acca would probably give a better return - espec if the fav and 2nd fav keep making the frame.

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24 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Apologies Bob, i'll keep my big gob shut :ok

I accept your apology but if these insults keep carrying on , I'm gone from this forum. i find this forum at 64 years of age just totally non-constructive although I do very much appreciate the draw results you posted. I'm far too old to put up with idiots. Compared to other forums I was on 20 years ago this just seems like bollocks to me. Bar me I could not give a toss.

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10 hours ago, BOB PATRICK said:

Snoop Dog How are you going to do a place accumulator. Theres no such bet allowed. Bookies aren't stupid

 

I think Snoop Dog deserves an apology now! 

You can do 'place' accas at most places Bob, try Betfair sportsbook for a kick off.

Its 2018 you can bet on ANYTHING:p

 

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Bob,

When I last checked, Paddy's betslip seemed to be setting it up just right -  giving the right number of lines with different numbers of selections in each race. (eg 1,2,3 per race). And you don't have to make a selection on races you deem too tough.

Try it on your online accounts.

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16 hours ago, BillyHills said:

I think Snoop Dog deserves an apology now! 

You can do 'place' accas at most places Bob, try Betfair sportsbook for a kick off.

Its 2018 you can bet on ANYTHING:p

 

Fair enough I did not know and am quite prepared to apologise. There was no such thing in my day. Sorry.

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Quite a while since I posted,for various reasons,one being health,one being conflict.However on the subject Bob asks about.Little point in betting on "TOTE JACKPOT" imo Bob as in reality the Tote no longer exists,as I predicted when Bald Fred bought the rights,nor will it ever exist again in the form we knew it.

Pool betting relies on volume and is basically a "No lose book" as it relies on a percentage deduction from the total bet into it,the results do not matter.

So weak now that the only viable options are when there is a huge carry over,the acca odds are by far and away more profitable most of the time.The advantage of betting on the TOTE pools are largely gone compared with what they once were i.e In the main you were betting against the largest percentage of people who had little knowledge of betting,hence why they used the Nanny (Like the lottery,a numbers bet).

By contrast the Placepot has grown and the pools can be lucrative,my advice would be leave the Jackpot well alone until a big carry over occurs.Concentrate your bets around the placepot including perms,long term you will win more and more often,same re the Scoop 6.

When the carry overs occur you will be betting against the same mugs who made the pool grow in the first place,therein lies your advantage.I have gone through the card several times with accas,one that hurt loads was back in the 70s when I had a Tote place acca with Coral.It was their bet and did not go into the Tote pool,all 6 won but I only collected on the place,the same I suspect applies to place accas where they are accepted now.

My advice would be split your bet e.g jackpot & placepot and an ew acca if you feel you have to play,even on carry overs.Pool betting is dead in the water as I type but there is scope to profit when a large carry over is up for grabs.

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7 hours ago, Glentoby said:

By contrast the Placepot has grown and the pools can be lucrative,my advice would be leave the Jackpot well alone until a big carry over occurs.Concentrate your bets around the placepot including perms,long term you will win more and more often,same re the Scoop 6.

The placepot caught my eye from the very first day that they came into betting shops .... had never heard of them before (probably have always been on course). No better way to sit down and watch a shit days racing by doing the placepots. The disaster is having 5 winners and the last one couldn't be bothered running into a place even.

Do you really think Glentoby that you can make a profit on placepots. Please advise. What size perms would you do ?

 

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The second highest Placepot dividend was returned on Thursday at Wolverhampton , the £81,874 being eclipsed only by the £91,774 declared at Cheltenham on December 11, 2015.

Not a single favourite managed to reach the places in the half dozen races on which the Placepot operated at Cheltenham that day, and while that was not the case at Wolverhampton – two outright market leaders won and a joint-favourite was placed – turnover was boosted by the meeting being the only afternoon card on offer, with Warwick and Musselburgh having been victims of waterlogging.

The massive Wolverhampton dividend was won to only 65p, so there will be a £28,655 carryover to Lingfield on Friday. Four punters were celebrating, with three winning £16,374 for 20p lines, and the other £4,093 for a 5p line.


All-time top Placepot dividends

£91,774 Cheltenham, December 11, 2015

£81,874 Wolverhampton, April 5, 2018

£63,284 Newmarket, October 3, 2003.

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On 4/1/2018 at 8:56 AM, Xtc12 said:

The placepot caught my eye from the very first day that they came into betting shops .... had never heard of them before (probably have always been on course). No better way to sit down and watch a shit days racing by doing the placepots. The disaster is having 5 winners and the last one couldn't be bothered running into a place even.

Do you really think Glentoby that you can make a profit on placepots. Please advise. What size perms would you do ?

 

Absolutely xtc,the pools are now quite robust,permwise it really depends on the size of the pot and stake size you are comfortable with.2 x 2 in is obviously 64 bets and it all depends on the course/ground/draw etc on the flat.For me I would prefer 6 or 7 runner fields or less even under both codes where if there was 4 runner races only the winner counts.

4 bets gone if you cover the field granted but most will be on the 1st or 2nd fav in most races so probably 50% plus out of the pool if 3rd or 4th fav wins.

My friend won the biggest ever placepot at the time which happened at Newbury,early 90s,paid £19k + change,she was paid out less than £500 because of the INDY rules on Tote bets,so warning there about punting "in shop" with Indy's.

By contrast I hit one at Newmarket which paid £1,700  to £1 for a few quid (single line) not long after,placed with one of the big 4 in shop.They tried to claim I had not paid tax (No tax on pool bets even then),wrote to Jim Cremin at the Racing Post,a few days later a large cheque received.

Should not be a problem these days but always worth checking terms and conditions unless you are confident your bet is going into the pool.

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Here is my dislike about placepots : did the placepot at Newcastle today everything going well with 2 races to go.

In the  5th race I had one selection (5 horse race) and in the final race, a four horse race I had all four.

Selection in race 5 declared a non runner, now left on the Fav who gave me a shit run for my money.

In hindsight I would have done the four runners if the non runner had been declared earlier.

No doubt I will do another one tomorrow. 

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Such are the perils of racing Xtc,however you should check your bet again. as the fav in race five won the race and there were 6 runners,the last was 4 runners,is that what you meant?

I assume this was the case and hindsight is not much help in any scenario other than to beat yourelf up.I had the pisspot on all three days of Aintree and given the dividends in hindsight I would not have bothered.

Half a million in the pool on all three days,a couple of favs out of the frame,happy days you would think?

Wrong,the 2nd day was the biggest dividend.....Thu £54.40,Fri £145.80,Sat 61.20......incredible considering the National was the last leg yesterday.My biggest perm was only 16 bets on each day and I thought given the pool sizes a good divi was a certainty.

The only explanation I can think of is that the syndicates and usual Jackpot/Scoop 6 bigger players had targeted the pools of the pisspot knowing how big they would be.If so they have shot themselves in the foot by diluting the pool and I cannot think of any other reason why there were so many winning tickets.It is out of sync with what is normal,even allowing for the On Course attendance playing on the nanny.

Should be obvious given the payouts at Newcastle and Chepstow in comparison but unless someone can pinpoint the source of winning tickets we will never know.

What is obvious however is that if it is the case then perhaps the smaller meetings on the same day may be the way to go i.e concentrate on them rather than the big meeting?

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My heart was in my mouth for a while Glentoby. Had a quick check at the results ............. my loser was in the 4th race not the 5th :$  

Had a look at the Newcastle placepot which had a pool of £38,291.45. Granard @ 4\7 in the first race was unplaced losing 77% of the units. 

While at Aintree which had a pool of 388,915.25 ..... lost just over half in the first race, Red Indian being the big loser.

By the time the National came there were 5.5% of the overall units left. Blacklion was the big loser here and you could have done with Anibale Fly to be out of the frame (eventhough he came up trumps for me) to make the dividend bigger. If Milansbar and Anibale Fly  were in reverse positions the dividend would have paid £102.64, still not great for the National meeting compared to Newcastle and Chepstow. 

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Well, Halep has officially anounced today that she will not be in Singapore for her back problems. Obviously, Sloane had no intentions of winning that match against Jabeur (unnecessary for her). Actually, im thinking in a theory involving Kiki and Pliskova. I think that both players knew that Halep would not play in Singapore for her back problems, and they knew that just before their respective matches in Moscow against Zvonariova and Sasnovich. Sloane, Kiki and Pliskova inscribed in this tournament to secure a place in Singapore. Well, all of them have lost in the first round but they all have a place for Singapore…
    • Here;s my calls for Saturdays games:   Blackburn to beat Leeds
      Ipswich to beat QPR
      Villa to beat Swansea
      Wigan to beat West Brom
      Stoke to beat Birmingham !
      Hull to draw with Preston
      Rotherham to beat Bolton   Blackburn and Wigan are the outsiders. But you can get odds of 3.5 ! So hopefully one will turn up????
    • On paper it has draw drawn all over it. Surely has to be a draw......
    • 4.10pm Tramore 1pt Cowboy Des Long  5/2 Bet365
    • I'm going with 4 tips this week in the PL: Chelsea to beat Man Utd
      West Ham to lose to Tottenham
      Wolves to beat Watford
      Man City to beat Burnley I think most people wouldnt mock me for the City & Spurs tips, but maybe the Chelsea and Wolves calls are a bot more debatable. All the games though give food odds for the tips I'm suggesting, which is why I'm tipping them. At the very least hopefully the Chelsea United game will be a cracker to watch, assuming United dont park the bus!!
    • Ahhhhhhh Normality of Premier League football returns and kicks off with a Big One! Chelsea 3 United 1. Won't be a surprise that I predict a Chelsea win here, Although United staged that comeback against Newcastle a stronger team would of gone on to put 3 or 4 past United in that 1st half as there were all over the place, I expect Mourinho will approach this with his usual caution and if Chelsea get an early goal Mourinho's United are not to clever at chasing against the big boys. I therefore see a comfortable early afternoon work for the Blues. OVER 3.5 GOALS 11/5 bet365   Bournemouth 2 Southampton 1. A south coast derby win for Bournemouth could see the cherries rise to the dizzy heights of 4th if other results go their way, I expect they will get their end of the job done with a scrappy close win, Southampton for me are poor and I'm not a fan of Mark Hughes management and think his style of play is dull. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 5/7 SportPesa, 10BET   Cardiff 2 Fulham1. Here it is everyone Cardiffs first win, not because it's Fulham but just cause I think it's due, Cardiff have had an horrendous start to the season, but a win against Fulham will take them to within a point of the Cottagers, Fulham have some decent attack threat with Mitrovic and Sessingon but I think Cardiff will ride this one out and get the boost of a first Prem win. Under 3.5 goals is like buying money in my opinion and the fact that I can find 8 sites offering these odds tell me bookies agree. UNDER 3.5 GOALS 2/5 bet365, Ladbrokes, betfair, Coral, BETFRED, BoyleSports, BETSTARS, betway   Man City 2 Burnley 0. Seems silly to say for a team sitting top of the table but City haven't quite clicked into gear yet which is a large worry for the rest of the teams in the league, I expect they will see this one out comfortably enough though Burnley will provide some decent resistance and Dyche may try to have a go here and why not, I see Sterling grabbing a goal here to after his confidence boosting brace in Spain. STERLING TO SCORE AT ANYTIME 23/25 MARATHON BET   Newcastle 1 Brighton 1. Now I think Newcastle are struggling for several reason, to many of their players just can't cut it, uncertainty with club ownership and Benitez in my opinion not really wanting to be there, Brighton on the other hand are loving life, bit of an up and down season so far, and they may fancy they can nick all 3 points here but I think a 1-1 draw will be settled for. 1-1 47/10 MARATHON BET   West Ham 2 Spurs 4. West Ham and Spurs do not like each other and this is a fiery encounter normally, but because I think Spurs will just go for it ad will West Ham I see a high scoring away win. People seem to think Spurs are struggling but it's their best start to a premier league campaign and I think the fact they are winning but maybe not in great style is clouding people, I think out of the two sides Spurs defence will be stronger and therefore prevail. DRAW/TOTTENHAM 22/5 MARATHON BET   Wolves 2 Watford 0. Watfords predicted wobbles have set in and this is no place to go when you are wobbling at the moment, Wolves posses a confident little squad that believe in their manager and what he's doing, also have a decent financial clout behind them, and I think they will have to much for The Hornets here and score a goal in each half to seal the points. WOLVES 2-0 8/1 BETVICTOR   Huddersfield 0 Liverpool 3. Huddersfield are improving but I can't see them getting any joy at all against Liverpool, For whatever reasons Liverpool struggled against Napoli and held on for a point against City, not terrible results in the grand scheme of things but even Klopp was saying his team look tired, however I expect them to shake that tiredness and win comfortably here was tempted to go for 0-4 but stuck at 3. LIVERPOOL 3-0 8/1 BETVICTOR   Everton 2 Crystal Palace 1. I don't really know where to begin with both these sides, Everton look like they are going to have a flyer and then don't win for a couple games against teams you think they might, then they will go away an beat teams that you think they won't Palace are also hard to predict though it seems if you take Zaha out of the picture, no goals and no points seem to follow, so I am going for Everton to edge to a nervy 2-1 win. EVERTON 2-1 33/4 10BET SportPesa   Arsenal 3 Leicester 1. Arsenal have definitely found their feet and scoring boots under Emery and although ;Leicester will go there and want to test Arsenals defence I expect the Gunners to pick them off a couple of times after probably taking a lead, and therefore see 3 points, and 3 goals for the Gunners and a nice win. Leicester to score a penalty 8/1 bet365   Another weekend down and it's all taking shape, I'm off for a beer or two  enjoy people, enjoy 
    • I'm only going to stick my neck out on two games in the Scottish Premiership: Livingston to beat Dundee
      Celtic to beat Hibernian On paper it appears to be easy money. In reality I'm poor so there you go! Can'y help but think they are dead certs though!! Haha.
    • League 2 tips: MK Dons to beat Northampton
      Macclesfield to beat Carlisle
      Forest Green to beat Cheltenham
      Lincoln to beat Cambridge
      Morecambe to draw with Colchester
      Oldham to draw with Port Vale    Again its based on odds. The outside bet this time is Macclesfield v Carlisle, Odds of over 3 are too good to miss, but it;s certainly far from a sure bet!    
    • Impossibly difficult race to rate .....lots out of form .....form horses penalised....ground conditions poor .......I'm.going to take a punt on low draws 13 or below as that's where 3nor 4 past winners came from in short history suggesting a low draw bias so I rated them.....13 and below  Balmoral handicap  Zwayyan    313 Mitcham swagger  312 Waarif   307 Southseas   307 Can't back with any degree of confidence but if low draws do have an advantage then top 2 could have a big advantage at big prices so I'll roll the dice in tricky race  Zwayyan 5pts ew 14/1 bet365 Mitcham swagger 5pts ew 20/1 pp
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