captainlucky Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Hi everyone, I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out... With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really. Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75 Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26 David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50 Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88 Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93 Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25 And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were 2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5 2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25 2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26 2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13 As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us. Bubbles180, Snoopdog and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 I appreciate you will have done a fair bit of research for this, and others will have their views, but the rate of profitability with a profit of 232 from stakes of 180 for a rate of profit of just under 130% looks unsustainably high and suggests that this might just be a case of backfitting past results to produce a desired result. You might like to look at my post regarding rates of return on betting. Anyway good luck if you are pursuing this. captainlucky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainlucky Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 17 hours ago, Alastair said: I appreciate you will have done a fair bit of research for this, and others will have their views, but the rate of profitability with a profit of 232 from stakes of 180 for a rate of profit of just under 130% looks unsustainably high and suggests that this might just be a case of backfitting past results to produce a desired result. You might like to look at my post regarding rates of return on betting. Anyway good luck if you are pursuing this. Yes I understand what you mean. But facts remain that they have got good records in races considered specialist distance. Also back fitting can be called when a trainer has won 4 of the last five running's of a particular race, but everyone still looks at that. I'm not looking to double my money on those trainers this season. If they happen to perform to a fraction of the results I posted and overall I make 20-25% return on stakes, that would be good enough for me. I am going to post any runners under those rules for this season just for an interest really. But totally understand where you're coming from, Alistair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 On 31/03/2018 at 12:53 PM, captainlucky said: Hi everyone, I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out... With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really. Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75 Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26 David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50 Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88 Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93 Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25 And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were 2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5 2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25 2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26 2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13 As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us. I’ve been watching this since you posted, david loughname has had 3 runners,2 winners and an unplaced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainlucky Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 1 hour ago, corky said: I’ve been watching this since you posted, david loughname has had 3 runners,2 winners and an unplaced only runners on "flat turf" and "2 runs in last 90 days" as was written in original post. and since 31st of march he's not had turf runners at all, and only one 7 furlong runner that won on all weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 6 hours ago, captainlucky said: only runners on "flat turf" and "2 runs in last 90 days" as was written in original post. and since 31st of march he's not had turf runners at all, and only one 7 furlong runner that won on all weather. He had a winner last night, yeah,it was turf you mentioned, but it got me thinking, and I was looking at the 7 furlong slant, as it’s not every day you get a 7furlong race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainlucky Posted April 19, 2018 Author Share Posted April 19, 2018 oh ok i see. you a bit of a system man corky? ok you've now got me thinking haha. can't believe i never thought of the rareness of it. could i message you some point if i find an angle or 2 and see what you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted April 19, 2018 Share Posted April 19, 2018 4 races today and the last at newcastle. 2115 lord murphy for d. loughnane 0 no/.7 furlong at ripon 1/ 7 furlong at newmarket 3/. 7 furlong at newcastle none scheduled at abandoned tipperary 4 out of 40 races today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Interesting to know what happened to this "system" or "approach" however you like to word it. Sadly, I suspect it did not work out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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