Simeon Borisof

We disagree on Freib TG, Stevie   But ok, always good to have different views, cheers & GL!
Freiburg o3 @2.04
Min price to bet: o3 @1.97
Model +value: yes, strong
Significant team news: cb/dm Itakura suspended for Gladbach, lw/fw Plea injured
Note: Ok weather and good game expected here, TG 3.30-3.35 for us. It is a fact that Gladbach played 3 low-scoring games in a row, but there was a huge element of luck in first two, 1-0 win v Hertha and 1-1 draw at Bayern, with chances wasted, posts hit and penalty missed in first one; and gk Sommer making Bundesliga high 19 saves (!) in Munchen. Even last week, 0-1 v Mainz was not a true refection of game events, Gladbach really should have scored, they wasted 3 big chances and hit the post, but early 2nd half red card to Itakura basically killed the game, with Mainz taking advantage in the end. Freiburg's last home game v Bochum didn't go as we anticipated, at least not in terms of number goals scored, as it ended 1-0 despite some crazy scenes and chances, posts hit, miraculous saves and incredibly high final xG (5.20 combined!)... hopefully higher efficiency tomorrow! Freiburg are in UEL, they beat Qarabag 2-1 on Thu and travel to Greece to meet Olympiacos next Thu, but are not expected to rotate here. Btw both meetings last season were quite bizarre and both produced 6 goals.
Union Berlin dnb @2.19
Min price to bet: dnb @2.13 or +1/4 @1.81
Model +value: no, small negative
Significant team news: cb Doekhi out for Union (he has started last 3 and played well, but came into 11 only after injury to cb Leite, who is available again); cf Siebatcheu is back in the squad; rb Schmitz and fwd Uth still out for KOln
Note: With Bayern, these are the only two unbeaten teams in Bundesliga this season, it may stay like that after this game but we make it a clear 50-50 shot and like current prices on Union Berlin as underdogs. Both are playing well and both are participating in Europe, with Union losing their home game v Union St Gilloise 0-1 in UEL, and Koln drawing 1-1 away at Nice in UECL; both games on Thu. It was not a good performance by Union at all, but perhaps it is Koln who spent more energy and had a bit more emotional game, with thousands of traveling fans supporting them in Nice - if anything, we would say that Koln are in small disadvantage here compared to Union, due to that game on Thu, considering the circumstances (trip to Nice, fans, enthusiasm for European game), and the visitors could be sharper tomorrow - they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 Bundesliga visits here (last 3 seasons), and are unbeaten with 2-1-0 (plus they won all 3 home games for 5-1-0 overall record in last 3 seasons), hopefully a trip to Koln will be fruitful for them yet again. Model does not like this, but is not aware that Koln had some 'luck' with first half red cards to Schalke and Leipzig, and then early 2nd half red card to Stutgart, so man-advantage for them for quite some time in 3 of 5 BL games so far.

That was c/p from our site, I'll add one from Ger2 in this topic at PL as well - no separate topic for this league, and perhaps better not to open it for one game, so will just throw this here:

Darmstadt -1/4 @1.90
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.83 or -1/2 @2.11
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: -
Note: Just 2 points between these two teams, and only 1 defeat for both - however, we strongly like Darmstadt at these prices, after what they've shown last season and also what they've been showing this season so far, they have to be rated as one of the promotion candidates. Kaiserslautern are a bigger club and they don't lack ambition, but quality at the moment is not really there, they were quite lucky to get this many points and should be expected to slow down in the near future. If you look at shot and shots on target differential after 7 games, Kaiserslautern are quite negative in both, and 3rd worst in shots diff in BL2; while Darmstadt are strongly positive and 3rd best in shots diff. Darmstadt's performance last week v Bielefeld (1-1) wasn't good, though it was still tough to concede 94th min equalizer, but other than that and 1st game of the season at Regensburg, they have pretty much impressed with their play and also got a huge 2-1 win at title-favorites HSV a few weeks ago. Kaiserslautern is not an easy place to visit, but we est Darsmtadt at 51-51.5% to get 3 points tomorrow.

I will also play a very small Bet on Donezk. Yes they lost a many Quality. But Leipzig isn´t in Form and maybe they will have not 100% Truth in Squad for Coach Tedesco. So maybe, only Maybe this can be last Game for the Coach. So for me small 1/10 bet on DC X/Donezk

Nantes +1.75 @1.97
Min price to bet: +1.75 @1.90 or +1.5 @2.15
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: (fb Merlin, cf Simon and cm Sissoko still out for Nantes, but all players that were available vs Strasbourg are available tomorrow as well - PSG expected to rotate)
Note: PSG have not rotated so far, playing their best poss 11 (or close to it; with top 3 superstars always included) in every game, but this game comes 3 days after midweek win in Toulouse and, more importantly, just 3 days before their big opening UCL group game v Juve... and UCL is PSG's key competition this season, yet again, and the big stage they will want to shine on. Nantes are a tricky opponent in any case, as they are a well drilled side; and while they also have a European game in midweek, in EL group stage, it's fair to assume they won't be resting players in home game vs the reigning champions, it's always a special occasion when PSG are in town, for any team in Ligue 1 really. Min prices to bet would depend on confirmed team-news and lineups here, assumption is that PSG will rotate, and we put 7-8 pts below current mkt avgs as official minimums, but in case the rotation is heavier, even lower prices would be ok, say +1.75 @1.80ish or +1.5 @2.02ish would do it.

Lyon o3.25 @1.93
Min price to bet: o3.25 @1.87 or o3.5 @2.10
Model +value: yes, small
Significant team news: - 
Note: Fine 3-1-0 start for Lyon, but they have conceded in each of those 4 games, despite playing 4 teams that are expected to finish in bottom 10, and actually, 4 relegation candidates. Angers games have been full of goals, cards and entertainment, 4 of their 5 league games have gone over 3.5 line with both teams scoring, they have conceded at least 2 goals in last 4, and only in the opening game of the season played a 0-0 draw v Nantes, but that one was also full of excitement and chances, it may have ended with 0-0 but final xG were 1.60-1.65, there were 30 shots in total, 20 from inside the box, 10 on target, with two goalkeepers dominating, especially Lafont in Nantes goal who won man of the math award. Lyon are heavy favs here, we agree it's 75%+ for them but wouldn't really count on them keeping a clean sheet, hcap for hosts looks good but we would need slightly better price, while overs off TG 3.70ish is a go, as we think it should be 3.5 line around @2.00 for overs.

Genk -1 @1.86
Min price to bet: -1.25 @2.04 or -1 @1.75
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: - (same squad for Genk as in last few games)
Note: No reason to stop trusting Genk as long as the market is above our fair prices, they were impressive again last week, won only with 2-1 but it should've been by 3 goals really, they allowed almost nothing to Cercle, conceded out of the blue right at the start of the 2nd half, from what was only Cercle's 2nd shot from inside the box (they finished with 3; Genk had 14) and missed quite a few chances, it was especially amazing they failed to score from set pieces, especially corner kicks, from which they looked very very dangerous indeed, with 3-4 sitters missed. Seraing got a big 3-1 away win at fellow relegation candidates Eupen last week, their first points of the season, and while that will boost their confidence, the problem is that Genk are on another level at the moment, more than likely to bring their hosts down again. About 70.5-71% for an away win for us, Seraing have a narrow ugly pitch that is certainly not something better teams like too much; but that area is their only (small) advantage here. There is -1.25 @2.10 available at the moment, and while this is the hcap we actually prefer to -1 in this case, the problem is that vast majority of the mkt is on -1, so we will stick to lower and uglier price here.
St Truiden -1/4 @2.01
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.90 or -1/2 @2.20
Model +value: yes, small
Significant team news: yes, quite a few problems for Mechelen, as they are without first choice gk Coucke, star lw Storm, cb/cm Lavalee, lb Bolingoli; rw Shved a doubt and their important duo from last season, am Mrabti and lb Bijker are both still out as well... first choice cf Hayashi is doubtful for the hosts (should be out)
Note: We can say that Mechelen are severely weakened here, their team-news are truly poor, but they were in even worse situation last week and still somehow managed to beat Westerlo 5-4 (and they were 2-4 down with 15 mins to go), in a weird game that featured some terrible defending and goalkeeping. However, it's difficult to ignore these problems at Mechelen, let's not forget they also lost last season top scorer cf Cuypers to Gent this summer, and at this stage they don't look like the side who should challenge for UECL playofs. St Truiden got their first win of the season last week (1-0 at Oostende), but they lost only to Anderlecht this season, despite playing 2 other strong teams in Gent and Union SG; and actually, if we look back at last season as well, loss against Anderlecht was the only defeat St Truiden have suffered in last 14 league games. It's not ideal that cf Hayashi is (likely) out, but his other countrymen are all available, with Japanese legends Kagawa and Okazaki set to lead the line, and rwb Hashioka and gk Schmidt to start as well, as usual. We like the hosts at these prices, est hw at 48.5-49% after some adjustment for team news.

We're straight into the Northern Ireland Open tomorrow. An event we tipped up last year for Mark Allen to come out and win. Was a hell of a final, too, beating Higgins in a deciding leg. I like Jimmy Robertson to beat Gary Wilson tomorrow. He has won the last few h2hs but he is also playing the better right now and he also has points to protect having made the Last 16 here, last year.
I also it's probably worth 2pts on Oliver Brown against Maguire. Maguire does have points to protect here but he just looked so average against Stevens last week and he also lost to Brown only a month ago. He isn't 13/2 tomorrow.
5pts J. Robertson to beat G. Wilson 4/5 willhill
2pts O. Brown to beat S. Maguire 13/2 paddypower
1pt treble - JRobertson / Woollaston / JJones (-2.5 frames) 6/1 paddypower

Went to Bromsgrove  v Alvechurch  on Tuesday night, it was a cracking game in monsoon conditions with Bromsgrove winning 3-1... They rode their luck early doors as Alvechurch could have been two or three up early doors but after that Bromsgrove played really well. Alvechurch  are a decent side despite two back to back defeats and I fancy them at evens to beat a struggling Rushden side today at Lye Meadow.
 

Lots of matches today and some get started at 10am, so not alot of time to preview. I have 2 that I like for the early matches. The first is Ajaib to beat the woeful Pinches. Obviously Pinches will turn up now but he was awful last week and let a 3-1 lead slip. Ajaib isn't going to break any records but he went and beat Allen 5-3 after being 3-1 down last week and although it wasn't a masterclass and more a fact of Allen's issues, you still need abit about you to do that. The other I am taking a punt on is Anda to beat Murpy. Anda has been playing some decent stuff and it will take Murphy not really turning up but it's worth a 2/1 shot.
5pts Ajaib to beat Pinches 11/10 paddypower
2pts Anda to beat Murphy 2/1 bet365

Haddad Maia won in two! I don't see a bet in the finals, however.

Well, this kind of attitude certainly raises a few questions, at the very least, it was obvious that Pinches couldnt care less after taking the lead at 1:3. In the final frame he had a couple of chances to attack, but he decided to play defensive...quite strange indeed.

Well, this kind of attitude certainly raises a few questions, at the very least, it was obvious that Pinches couldnt care less after taking the lead at 1:3. In the final frame he had a couple of chances to attack, but he decided to play defensive...quite strange indeed.

if anyone watched the last frame, Pinches was trailing by like 45 and only one red left, he managed to put both the red and the white in extremely difficult spots both hidden behind colored balls with other colored balls in between, nearly impossible for Lee to hit the red, Lee after missing the second time Pinches went on to play to score an easy ball, but no way in hell would any player I ever watched would play it because it was obvious it was gonna take Lee six seven or eight attempts with four point penalty every time before actually hitting the red.

Pinches an absolute scumbag , he was leading 3-1 then clearly for whatever reason couldn't care less and played totally recklessly and carelessly , unbelievable crap to watch. 
Seeing several of his missed shots especially in the last frame i also wouldn't be surprised if he sold the match and him / his relatives had all kinds of bets on Lee.

Looks like a good day today with both bets coming in and the accy still has time to just lose at the last hurdle  

Tomorrow, I think it's worth giving a couple of points to backing Young against Wenbo. Wenbo has been banned for a year, for those who do not know, for beating up a woman and was caught on CCTV. His first match back is tomorrow morning and Young is 7/1 in some places to win the match. I can't have that. I don't care if it's Ronnie O'Sullivan coming back after a year, if you haven't been practicing then you're going to suffer and even if you have, you're not going to hit the ground running. 
2pts Young to beat Wenbo 13/2 paddypower

In the morning of today's action, at 10am, Lu Ning takes on Matt Selt. Last time these two met was in the 2020 UK Championships and Selt was on a 3 match winning streak against Ning. However, Ning dominated and won the match 6-0, with 4 centuries and a 50+ break in the 6 frames played. Selt is quite a streaky player but he can turn up anytime and score well. This season though he has drew all 3 Championship League matches and lost 5-1 to Pinhey at the European Masters. Ning comes into this after being beaten easily 5-0 by Robert Milkins but his form prior to that was good and he has points to protect here after making the Quarter finals last year. I would make him a slight favourite in this
5pts Lu Ning to beat M. Selt 11/10 betvictor

Taking a look at the later matches, at 1pm we have Ding taking on Oliver Lines and Mark King taking on Haotian. I think Haotian is worth backing but he is 4/6 to win, so I am going to take a chance on him (-1.5 frames) King comes into this after losing to out-of-form Hamilton 5-2 and he didn't even make a 50+ break. Haotian, meanwhile, beat Muir 5-1 and hit a century and 2 50+ breaks. He also performed decent in the Championship League, beating Vafaei 3-0, drawing 2-2 with in-form Jimmy Robertson and beating Judge 3-1. 
I'll give an accy another go, too. Another 19/1 attempt
5pts Haotian (-1.5 frames) to beat M. King 6/5 paddypower
0.5pts accy - Ning, Haotian, Grace, Greene, Over 5.5 frames (Taylor Vs Kleckers) Over 5.5 frames (Burns Vs Duffy) 19/1 paddypower

The qualifiers for the Cazoo British Open 2022/23 get underway tomorrow. 6 days of qualifiers with the main event taking place late September. We have 8 matches a day and there are a couple I like in tomorrows action.
The first bet for me is Zhang Anda to beat Stephen Hendry, on the handicap. In an ideal world I would have liked -1.5 but the -2.5 gives Hendry one frame. I think Anda wins the match and I'm not sure how much longer Hendry will keep this re-attempt at Snooker going, too. If it was purely a question of him getting back into the practice room to get to, at least the level of the likes of Dale, Doherty etc then he would be there by now after a year but if we look at pure results, he won his 3 of his first 6 matches, but only really played decent against Jimmy White, at the Worlds. In fact in his other 2 wins, just one break of 60 combined both matches.
However, recently, 6 matches lost in a row for a combined frame score of 29-5. He got 2 frames against Yang and 3 against Li Hang. Funny enough, he played decent against Li Hang and I wanted to see how he would play this season. He has lost his only match against Joyce though, 5-0 and without a break of 50+. Anda for me 4-1.
My next bet will be Li Hang to beat Liam Highfield. Not many of the players take the Championship League very seriously but Highfield lost all 3 of his matches and 2 of them were losing against Ben Mertens and Xu Si. He should be winning both of those matches. He then went and performed well against Mark Williams in his first real event of the season but again, he lost, in a deciding leg. It's a hard one to call his form but 4 losses from 4 now and he's playing Li Hang, who looked in decent nick. Hang has also played in the Championship League (W1, D1, L1) and that loss was also against Mark Williams. It's the break building that edges me to Hang though. Centuries in every match bar his first, and 2 centuries and a 73 in his 5-3 win over Steadman. I feel like Hang will come into this with the better form and momentum. I'll stick this bet in a 4-fold along with the previous bet, Anda, on the handicap, Hugill and Jianbo to provide an upset against Jackson Page, who went out in the 1st round of this last year and comes into this with a small lack of form.
5pts Z. Anda (-2.5 frames) to beat S. Hendry 11/10 bet365
----------------------------------------------------
0.5pt 4-fold - Anda (-2.5 frames) / Hang / Jianbo / Hugill 19/1 bet365

Can't see it. With RUblev being such a strong baseliner, can't see how Nishioka could hurt him in any way possible.Both favourite should win in 2.

All over Aberdeen to beat St Mirren this weekend, price just shy of evens is a good price.
Dons lost away to my team, but myself and the boys who sit around me were impressed with dons. They on the whole played ok against Celtic albeit set up to defend, they looked fairly dangerous on counter and missed a 100% chance in front of goal when Jonny  Hayes had time to control the ball and pick his spot. He put it the wrong side of the post. It was easily the best chance of the match. They have have brought in some new players which have improved the team.
St Mirren on the other hand are my tip to be relegated they were terrible when losing their home season opener against a Motherwell team who are beret of confidence having being embarrassed by Sligo Rover in their European fixtures. I think there will be a clear power shift this season with a lot of SPL teams like Aberdeen, Dundee Utd, Hibs, Hearts being fairly astute in the transfer market. I think we will see the SPL align as such. St Mirren and St Johnstone in my view will battling out the last two spots.
Dons will have pencilled this game to get their season started. This is their home season opener against a poor team, i expect them to win easily.
 

Well, i am glad we cleared that out how the translation of the metaphysical into reality happens, but what are your thoughts on today's card and do you see any value in it?

Well, that seems not right to me. Paire to beat Rune @ 3.85 with local bookie. Paire got a good win yesterday against Gojowzcyk where managed to hit 11 aces in the process. His 1st serve worked as a charm for him and given Rune's poor form and bad results against weaker opponents than Paire, i am all over the Frenchman in this one + the fact that Benoit is arguably the better and more talanted player of the two. Rune's lack of experience will do him no good here.

Well, i am glad we cleared that out how the translation of the metaphysical into reality happens, but what are your thoughts on today's card and do you see any value in it?

c/p from our site, price on Benfica overs has moved down in meantime but it may improve before kick off, so we leave notes for that one here as well:
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Benfica o3 @2.09
Min price to bet: o3 @2.02 or o2.75 @1.80
Model +value:
Significant team news: key cm Evander inj for Midtjylland
Note: Benfica have lost a couple of attackers this summer, including star striker Nunez who was sold to Liverpool, but they brought in some young talents, have a new president in club legend (and Portugal legend) Rui Costa, and a new coach in Roger Schmidt, who joins after his contract with PSV expired a couple of months ago. Excellent coach with good, attacking football philosophy, his 2 year spell at PSV was a clear success despite no league titles won; as such a dominant Ajax side was still made to sweat for Eredivise last season, and also, PSV won the Cup against them and beat them before that in Super Cup as well. No doubt that Benfica will play much more attractive this season, they will play at a higher tempo and with lots of high press when not in possession; their pre-season friendlies were nothing short of spectacular, with 5 straight wins against decent sides, 2+ scored in all and at least 3 goals scored in last 4 (Newcastle, Fulham, Girona and Nice). Both teams have scored in each of Midtjylland's 5 official games this season (3 Den SL, 2 UCL) and 3 pre-season friendlies, and they got their first win last Fri at Odense, with emphatic 5-1 score, in first game after dismissal of head coach Henriksen - who was sacked at the airport after FCM arrived from 2nd leg of UCL qual prev round, which they won only after penalties, against Cypriot side AEK Larnaca. It was no wins in first 2 league rounds and no wins against limited Cypriots either, with penalty shootout needed to progress, along with missed opportunities last season, in which they failed to capitalize on numerous problems that main rivals FCK had, and finished as runners-up, though at least won the Danish Cup (on penalties against Odense). So two teams with new coaches (FCM with assistant coach Henrik Jensen as interim head coach at the moment), but we know exactly what to expect from sides coached by Roger Schmidt - PSV last season, or Salzburg, Leverk, Paderborn before that, even in China with Beijing Gouan he played a very attractive footie and got himself something of a cult-status among fans... after he was sacked, there were some incredible emotional scenes on the airport during his departure, with fans gathering in thousands to say good-bye to their beloved coach. Anyway, Benfica are ofc deserved strong favs in this tie, but FCM are not only a good side, but also have advantage of already playing 5 official games this season; while Benfica kept changing entire 11 at halftime of almost all their pre-season friendlies and actually, we have a pref on FCM hcap at current price (that was even better yesterday); but will just stick to TG bet, expecting a watchable game despite it's huge importance, est TG at 3.25-3.30. It will be hot in Lisbon tomorrow, but should be ok during the match with around 25c expected. No surprise if this price improves, we do like it but it's still a very important game and only the first leg.
Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen dnb hcaps both looked as picks yesterday, unfortunately the prices have moved quite a bit in meantime, and both are out of range at the moment... perhaps if mkt moves in other direction tomorrow, there is always a chance. Also, ugly counter-intuitive pick on Union SG against Rangers is also poss, the Belgian surprise package is weaker this season after losing 3 important players and coach Mazzu, and also, they can't play UCL games at their stadium, so no 'true' home advantage either (game will be played in Leuven), but Rangers have over-performed heavily in UEL last season and they are way overrated in general (in our eyes), so if market does go for them here, USG as home dogs are likely to be our choice tomorrow (unders also look quite ok, line is 2.5 with price 190ish; whereas it does feel as if line 2.25 with prices around 195 for both o-u is more appropriate here). So, possible update tomorrow, deadline 17h - unfortunately, limits are not better than in previous round; so overnight picks for UEL and UECL on Wed and Thu are less likely, it will probably be matchday picks/notes for both... for UCL though, we are still likely to have something for Wed published tomorrow evening. Update 14.40h:
Dinamo Zagreb dnb @1.88
Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.25
Model +value: -
Significant team news: Dinamo's first choice cb Sutalo is out inj, so is backup cb Theophile-Catherine; while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt
Note: Two Eastern European powerhouses, with Dinamo Zagreb and Ludogorets dominating their domestic leagues in last decade and also achieving some eye catching result in european cups. Very high ambitions this season as well, both are aiming for UCL group stage, but Croatians have the advantage in terms of quality and should really make it count. Bulgarian side has lost the step in last couple of years, their new signings have failed to replace players who have departed and while they didn't have the problems to dominate very weak Bulgarian league last season, they looked out of depth in EL group stage with Midtjylland, Braga and Red Star, scoring just 3 goals and winning just 2 points in 6 games. Largely the same squad as last season, no new important signings and actually a couple of regulars have left. They eased past Sutjeska in the preliminary round, but didn't impress vs poor Shamrock in previous round and almost got into trouble in the return leg; however Dinamo Zagreb were also far from impressive vs Shkupi and barely progressed, with form clearly far from optimal level at this stage. Croatians have lost a number of key players over the last couple of years, but they have always managed to sign good/proven players and produce new domestic stars, and judging from their transfer activity this summer it will be the same this time around. They are a bit shorthanded on cb position here and Sutalo's absence is not ideal, but cbs Peric and Lauritsen are both fit and ready and they have played many games together; and also, while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt after he got a knock in return leg against Shkupi last week, he is with the team and expected to take part in the game - and even if he doesn't start it wouldn't be a major loss, as both Orsic and new arrival Drmic are available and in good scoring form already. This is almost the same, albeit stronger team from one that impressed in EL group with West Ham, Rapid Vienna and Genk last season; and then troubled Sevilla in the knockout phase; and we make them 41-41.5% favs in this first leg in Razgrad.
So, the price on Croatians has bounced back allowing for a pick on them, however that will be all from today's update as Union SG price is lower than yday and expected move on Rangers never happened (TG price did move quite a bit, in expected direction); and Plzen price kept going down, so much that we now actually pref Sheriff hcap in that game (+1/4 190ish)! Nothing else today, possibly evening notes/picks for Wed action later, if not - we will have something tomorrow for sure.

Well, i am glad we cleared that out how the translation of the metaphysical into reality happens, but what are your thoughts on today's card and do you see any value in it?

Well, that seems not right to me. Paire to beat Rune @ 3.85 with local bookie. Paire got a good win yesterday against Gojowzcyk where managed to hit 11 aces in the process. His 1st serve worked as a charm for him and given Rune's poor form and bad results against weaker opponents than Paire, i am all over the Frenchman in this one + the fact that Benoit is arguably the better and more talanted player of the two. Rune's lack of experience will do him no good here.

Bouzkova winning was a nice bonus! Today, I like Dart to beat Zhu at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Just the better player overall and Zhu hasn't been to great recently, so I think I can overlook the break Dart has taken since Wimbledon. More potential as well, I think she can still go up in the rankings.