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Cazoo British Open (inc qualifiers)


Fader
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The qualifiers for the Cazoo British Open 2022/23 get underway tomorrow. 6 days of qualifiers with the main event taking place late September. We have 8 matches a day and there are a couple I like in tomorrows action.

The first bet for me is Zhang Anda to beat Stephen Hendry, on the handicap. In an ideal world I would have liked -1.5 but the -2.5 gives Hendry one frame. I think Anda wins the match and I'm not sure how much longer Hendry will keep this re-attempt at Snooker going, too. If it was purely a question of him getting back into the practice room to get to, at least the level of the likes of Dale, Doherty etc then he would be there by now after a year but if we look at pure results, he won his 3 of his first 6 matches, but only really played decent against Jimmy White, at the Worlds. In fact in his other 2 wins, just one break of 60 combined both matches.

However, recently, 6 matches lost in a row for a combined frame score of 29-5. He got 2 frames against Yang and 3 against Li Hang. Funny enough, he played decent against Li Hang and I wanted to see how he would play this season. He has lost his only match against Joyce though, 5-0 and without a break of 50+. Anda for me 4-1.

My next bet will be Li Hang to beat Liam Highfield. Not many of the players take the Championship League very seriously but Highfield lost all 3 of his matches and 2 of them were losing against Ben Mertens and Xu Si. He should be winning both of those matches. He then went and performed well against Mark Williams in his first real event of the season but again, he lost, in a deciding leg. It's a hard one to call his form but 4 losses from 4 now and he's playing Li Hang, who looked in decent nick. Hang has also played in the Championship League (W1, D1, L1) and that loss was also against Mark Williams. It's the break building that edges me to Hang though. Centuries in every match bar his first, and 2 centuries and a 73 in his 5-3 win over Steadman. I feel like Hang will come into this with the better form and momentum. I'll stick this bet in a 4-fold along with the previous bet, Anda, on the handicap, Hugill and Jianbo to provide an upset against Jackson Page, who went out in the 1st round of this last year and comes into this with a small lack of form.

5pts Z. Anda (-2.5 frames) to beat S. Hendry 11/10 bet365
----------------------------------------------------
0.5pt 4-fold - Anda (-2.5 frames) / Hang / Jianbo / Hugill 19/1 bet365

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I have to wonder about betting scandals in matches like the one I'm watching here. Jianbo 2-0 up and flying and starts missing the kind of shots a pub player could make. Its very odd. Makes you wonder. Good to see Anda do the business and win 4-1 though for the main bet. 

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8 hours ago, amity said:

Sickened I didn't see the Hendry bet til now 😕 

I would have been all over that as well

Solid start though @Fader, looking forward to your snooker tips this week 👍

speaking of sickened, the 19/1 loses on a black ball finish :(

cheers amity

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In the morning of today's action, at 10am, Lu Ning takes on Matt Selt. Last time these two met was in the 2020 UK Championships and Selt was on a 3 match winning streak against Ning. However, Ning dominated and won the match 6-0, with 4 centuries and a 50+ break in the 6 frames played. Selt is quite a streaky player but he can turn up anytime and score well. This season though he has drew all 3 Championship League matches and lost 5-1 to Pinhey at the European Masters. Ning comes into this after being beaten easily 5-0 by Robert Milkins but his form prior to that was good and he has points to protect here after making the Quarter finals last year. I would make him a slight favourite in this

5pts Lu Ning to beat M. Selt 11/10 betvictor

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Taking a look at the later matches, at 1pm we have Ding taking on Oliver Lines and Mark King taking on Haotian. I think Haotian is worth backing but he is 4/6 to win, so I am going to take a chance on him (-1.5 frames) King comes into this after losing to out-of-form Hamilton 5-2 and he didn't even make a 50+ break. Haotian, meanwhile, beat Muir 5-1 and hit a century and 2 50+ breaks. He also performed decent in the Championship League, beating Vafaei 3-0, drawing 2-2 with in-form Jimmy Robertson and beating Judge 3-1. 

I'll give an accy another go, too. Another 19/1 attempt

5pts Haotian (-1.5 frames) to beat M. King 6/5 paddypower
0.5pts accy - Ning, Haotian, Grace, Greene, Over 5.5 frames (Taylor Vs Kleckers) Over 5.5 frames (Burns Vs Duffy) 19/1 paddypower

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Looks like a good day today with both bets coming in and the accy still has time to just lose at the last hurdle :D 

Tomorrow, I think it's worth giving a couple of points to backing Young against Wenbo. Wenbo has been banned for a year, for those who do not know, for beating up a woman and was caught on CCTV. His first match back is tomorrow morning and Young is 7/1 in some places to win the match. I can't have that. I don't care if it's Ronnie O'Sullivan coming back after a year, if you haven't been practicing then you're going to suffer and even if you have, you're not going to hit the ground running. 

2pts Young to beat Wenbo 13/2 paddypower

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There a few others that I like tomorrow but I am going to stick them in an accy. The one single bet I will go with, though, is Patrick to beat Burden. Patrick isn't moving the world right now and has only won 1 match in 4 but he hit 2 50+ breaks in his loss to Xintong and has scored well in the other 3 matches. Scores of 101 and 79 in a draw with Haotian and 3 50+ breaks in his 3-1 win over Dott shows me that he is hitting the ball well. I think he beats Burden, who has lost all 4 of his matches this season. Difference is, he has only managed 3 50+ breaks in those 4 matches combined. It's hardly a banker but I would say that Patrick is looking the best of the two men for form

5pts Patrick to beat Burden 4/5 betway
1pt accy - Patrick, Astley, Un-Nooh, Steadman & Wakelin 10/1 paddypower

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9 hours ago, Fader said:

Taking a look at the later matches, at 1pm we have Ding taking on Oliver Lines and Mark King taking on Haotian. I think Haotian is worth backing but he is 4/6 to win, so I am going to take a chance on him (-1.5 frames) King comes into this after losing to out-of-form Hamilton 5-2 and he didn't even make a 50+ break. Haotian, meanwhile, beat Muir 5-1 and hit a century and 2 50+ breaks. He also performed decent in the Championship League, beating Vafaei 3-0, drawing 2-2 with in-form Jimmy Robertson and beating Judge 3-1. 

I'll give an accy another go, too. Another 19/1 attempt

5pts Haotian (-1.5 frames) to beat M. King 6/5 paddypower
0.5pts accy - Ning, Haotian, Grace, Greene, Over 5.5 frames (Taylor Vs Kleckers) Over 5.5 frames (Burns Vs Duffy) 19/1 paddypower

Anybody on the accy? Which ones gonna let us down? Lol 

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13 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

@Fader, it looks pretty damn good at the moment..... 🤞

Just always one mate. Always one or I do the wrong final bet. I was gonna go Burns cause Duffy is so rubbish but they both have been horrible so I thought I would keep safe. Seems Duffy can't get two frames from nobody. 

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8 minutes ago, Fader said:

Just always one mate. Always one or I do the wrong final bet. I was gonna go Burns cause Duffy is so rubbish but they both have been horrible so I thought I would keep safe. Seems Duffy can't get two frames from nobody. 

Oh well, there's always another acca around the corner.   Having said that, Duffy is blacklisted from now on!  😂

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20 hours ago, Fader said:

Looks like a good day today with both bets coming in and the accy still has time to just lose at the last hurdle :D 

Tomorrow, I think it's worth giving a couple of points to backing Young against Wenbo. Wenbo has been banned for a year, for those who do not know, for beating up a woman and was caught on CCTV. His first match back is tomorrow morning and Young is 7/1 in some places to win the match. I can't have that. I don't care if it's Ronnie O'Sullivan coming back after a year, if you haven't been practicing then you're going to suffer and even if you have, you're not going to hit the ground running. 

2pts Young to beat Wenbo 13/2 paddypower

Good shout on this - thanks 🙂 

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Both winners again today. Just the one for tomorrow and it's Barry Pinches to beat Andy Lee. I reckon Pinches should be favourite there. Beat him in 2020 and would probably say he should be the slight favourite.  Smaller stakes as the day of snooker isn't the most exciting. Perhaps some better prospects on Saturday.

2.5pts B. Pinches to beat A. Lee 6/5 betfred

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5 hours ago, Fader said:

Both winners again today. Just the one for tomorrow and it's Barry Pinches to beat Andy Lee. I reckon Pinches should be favourite there. Beat him in 2020 and would probably say he should be the slight favourite.  Smaller stakes as the day of snooker isn't the most exciting. Perhaps some better prospects on Saturday.

2.5pts B. Pinches to beat A. Lee 6/5 betfred

 

15 minutes ago, Qaz100 said:

Fader with tomorrow matches what are your predictions? 

Above

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Pinches an absolute scumbag , he was leading 3-1 then clearly for whatever reason couldn't care less and played totally recklessly and carelessly , unbelievable crap to watch. 

Seeing several of his missed shots especially in the last frame i also wouldn't be surprised if he sold the match and him / his relatives had all kinds of bets on Lee.

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if anyone watched the last frame, Pinches was trailing by like 45 and only one red left, he managed to put both the red and the white in extremely difficult spots both hidden behind colored balls with other colored balls in between, nearly impossible for Lee to hit the red, Lee after missing the second time Pinches went on to play to score an easy ball, but no way in hell would any player I ever watched would play it because it was obvious it was gonna take Lee six seven or eight attempts with four point penalty every time before actually hitting the red.

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Sorry guys, you bet on these guys to do their job and they can't even do that. Even at 3-1 up.

Final day of of qualifications tomorrow. Just a couple for me. They're all pretty short prices and so I'm just going to stick them in an accy. Guodong with a -1.5 handicap against Lilley and Maguire are the two that I like but both are odds on. Guodong went 4-1 down against Xu Si and won 5 in a row with 4 centuries. Lilley lost to Carrington 5-2 and hit just 1 50+ break. The other, Maguire, has beaten Stevens last 8 TIMES in a row. 

2pts treble - Guodong -1.5 / Maguire -1,5 / Brown -1.5 7.5/1 paddypower
2pt accy - Bingyu / Guodong -1.5 / Maguire / Over 5.5 frames in Noppon/White / Milkins 7.5/1

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5 minutes ago, Fader said:

Sorry guys, you bet on these guys to do their job and they can't even do that. Even at 3-1 up.

For my part there's absolutely no need to apologise. 3-1 is not a guaranteed win even if it's first to four and I'm certainly aware of that. I've had winners from 3-1 down so I've learnt to accept the losers from 3-1 ahead.

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