Tennis Tips - August 1 - August 7

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Bouzkova winning was a nice bonus! Today, I like Dart to beat Zhu at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Just the better player overall and Zhu hasn't been to great recently, so I think I can overlook the break Dart has taken since Wimbledon. More potential as well, I think she can still go up in the rankings.

[888888]

Any opinion on Gojowczyk to beat Paire at 1,65?  Gojowczyk is no world beater but considering Paire's I don't care about tennis attitude...and even if Paire actually shows up it's still a kind of 50/50 game.

Edited August 1, 2022 by 888888

[888888]

3 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Any opinion on Gojowczyk to beat Paire at 1,65?  Gojowczyk is no world beater but considering Paire's I don't care about tennis attitude... and even if Paire actually shows up it's still a kind of 50/50 game.

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, such a match always looks better for live betting to me. See what's happening, perhaps wait for Paire to get a lead and then back Gojowczyk if the fightback starts.

[neilovan]

20 minutes ago, 888888 said:

 

I think you need to factor in travel, and which players have been playing for weeks in the USA, versus those just arriving. Gojowczyk played Newport (grass), but he's played Challenger  and Atlanta, and he's been there since 11 of July.  Paire  just got blitzed by Brooksby in Atlanta a few days ago, and comes into this match on a 7 match losing streak (lost 9 of his last 10). Paire has won 2 of the last 16 sets he has played. For me Gojo for the win here.

I like Murray to beat M Ymer quite easily. Not that Murray has been playing matches on hard, but he played Newport and has been in the States before 12 July, while Ymer was playing on clay in Croatia as late as 25th July. It's a long flight, and at least 6 time zones. Having just done similar, it takes at least 5 or 6 days to just reset your internal clock and feel half normal. Then throw in a pretty hot day (expected 32C with 65% humidity) and Ymer could walk into a wall.

I think you also see more effort and commitment from the players in these matches, because the US open is 4 weeks away, and the money from winning a couple of matches there is big motivation. Even getting into the main draw is at least 70% more than winning a tournament like Rhode Island. 

Edited August 1, 2022 by neilovan

[MinellaWorksop]

After lots of sifting through matches it was a Quiet week last week for me in mining for that Tennis gold, so definitely grateful for some top tips from my fellow posters on here.

3 bets, 1 win for a small profit of +0.40pts leaving a

Total P/L +2.57pts

Here are my first round outsiders for this week, 1 gentleman and 3 ladies:

ATP Washington

Marcos Giron 4.33

 

WTA San Jose

Shuai Zhang 2.30

Anhelina Kalinina 4.00

Qinwen Zheng 2.62

Prices Bet365

Edited August 1, 2022 by MinellaWorksop
added bookmaker

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

After lots of sifting through matches it was a Quiet week last week for me in mining for that Tennis gold, so definitely grateful for some top tips from my fellow posters on here.

3 bets, 1 win for a small profit of +0.40pts leaving a

Total P/L +2.57pts

Here are my first round outsiders for this week, 1 gentleman and 3 ladies:

ATP Washington

Marcos Giron 4.33

 

WTA San Jose

Shuai Zhang 2.30

Anhelina Kalinina 4.00

Qinwen Zheng 2.62

Prices Bet365

Zhang, Kalinina and Zheng I've had thoughts about myself so I agree on those picks.

[Simeon Borisof]

Well, that seems not right to me. Paire to beat Rune @ 3.85 with local bookie. Paire got a good win yesterday against Gojowzcyk where managed to hit 11 aces in the process. His 1st serve worked as a charm for him and given Rune's poor form and bad results against weaker opponents than Paire, i am all over the Frenchman in this one + the fact that Benoit is arguably the better and more talanted player of the two. Rune's lack of experience will do him no good here.

[neilovan]

So Monday not a great start. Murray just did not look healthy, but he was out on his feet after 1 set, which I didn't expect. Got to  be carrying an injury, because a pro that is out of gas after an hour and 1 set, is like a footballer being exhausted at HT. The Gojo match was to late for me here, but Paire is like the blind chicken. Peck away and you also hit some seeds, but there is a reason he's slipped out of the top 100.

They did have Kyle Edmunds match on TV here, and he looked reasonable. Not sure why he is such a dog against Dan Evans, who has not  played a competitive match on hard court for quite a few months. Can't see Evans rolling over him and I am expecting at least 1 breaker here (over 21.5 games looks decent at about 6 to 10), but I think I'll go small bet on Edmund.

In the WTA I am expecting Taucson to beat Petkovic. Not incredible odds, but the bookies are accurate with these two players. Tauson has won 17 of 21 matches starting as a favorite on hard courts. In the same period, Petkovic (as an underdog), has won 6 in 24 matches. In her 18 losses, she has lost the 1st set 16 times, winning just twice after losing the 1st set (as a starting match underdog). So I will take a small/medium bet on the double Edmund and Tauson, but am prepared to bet big on Tauson, if she wins the 1st set and the odds are 1.25+

 

[neilovan]

LOL, both of them so bad it is amazing to see. Edmunds just unrecognizable from yesterday, must have more unforced errors than points won.

[liquidglass]

2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

LOL, both of them so bad it is amazing to see. Edmunds just unrecognizable from yesterday, must have more unforced errors than points won.

With all due respect I really think that you need to take a break to reset considering how badly you started out on Monday and then continuing into today on the same inflated confidence on picks that were totally lifeless. I believe your fundamentals are wrong - referring to how you begin and go through your thought cycle to arrive at conclusions. That is what you will need to reset to become a better tipster.  There is only so much I cay say on a public platform. So i will leave it there for you to ponder over.

[neilovan]

43 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

With all due respect I really think that you need to take a break to reset considering how badly you started out on Monday and then continuing into today on the same inflated confidence on picks that were totally lifeless. I believe your fundamentals are wrong - referring to how you begin and go through your thought cycle to arrive at conclusions. That is what you will need to reset to become a better tipster.  There is only so much I cay say on a public platform. So i will leave it there for you to ponder over.

I'm not exactly betting the house on these picks. My fundamentals are not wrong. My picks are actually based on the stats. No amount of fundamentals are gonna tell you that Murray is carrying a slight injury, or that Edmunds is going to be unrecognizable from yesterday, or that Tauson, who has an excellent hard court record is going to play so badly (against an opponent that has been beaten like drum).

So I am a little down on 3.5 very small bets.  Nobody was commenting two weeks ago when I had 13 of 14 winners (when Cerundolo won the clay tournament). That week was off the charts ridiculously good. 

It is just the way betting goes. Sometimes you are right in sync and other times it is the opposite.  But the whole process is not a sprint, and things will even out and get better.

Edited August 2, 2022 by neilovan

[liquidglass]

Firstly, I want you to know that I did not set out to have a go at you in anyway. Rather my main aim as has always been the case with people that I have mentored over ther years, is to first bring them to realise what this game is about and secondly to make them come to realise what it is that they are supposed to be doing in terms of understanding the working structure of the game.  Let me throw this out there by saying that gambling against the bookies is the greatest manipulation of the mind ever known to man and it is totally impossible to come to grips with the modus operandi unless someone opens the door from the inside to let you into the mystery that lies underneath. Let me make it clear by saying that I am not selling or trying to sell anything to you. Rather I always speak most times from the power of the knowledge that i possess stemming from the love that i have for the game.  I have been tremendiously blessed to know all that I know about this indulgence. Everyone that has benefitted from me over the years have just run into me by accident from discussions on forums

Your answer to me makes me understand that your fundamentals like many other people is completely wrong as I already knew is the case. This game is based on a translation or the expression of the metaphysical into reality. Two factors control the game, namely market moves and market forces. Market Moves (odds movement) gives birth to Market Force within a cycle that commences from when the odds are first released to the beginning of play. Within the scope of  market force is a whole lot of encrypted information that needs to be translated or unscrambled by applied knowledge. Murray carrying a slight injury, or Edmunds being unrecognizable from yesterday were all factored into the odds before play. It is just that you could not see or sense what you have never understood. The same goes for a team that receives a red card or even misses a penalty in the 93rd minute. Everything about the game is deliberate. There is no such thing as luck or an out-of-place occurence. Crazy eh! The idea then will be to unlearn everything that you have ever known with a view to relearning by training your mind to understand most of the underlying workings of the game. In summary I would say that everything that happens in a game is a replay of everything that has already happened in the metaphysical realm. The default reasoning now is that the winner of any given match always manifests even before the first ball is struck. YOUR ABILITY TO FIND THAT WINNER IS HEAVILY RELIANT ON THE RESOURCES AT YOUR DISPOSAL of which "stats" is only a minor contributory factor.  Everytime you set out to pick your games or select your winners, you do so by responding to the predominant voices echoing in your head. These voices have a known source. Their key function is to oppose, confuse and bring you deliberately to the loser - This is the key battlepoint of this indulgence. How do you now train your mind to know which voice is authentic and which is not? It takes years of practice and adhering to norms and protocols within the workings of the game to acquire this knowledge. It also takes stubborn will and mind power to be able to navigate within the minefields of this mysterious setup. "Knowing" does not guarantee that you will win everyday, however it will guarantee that you will be able to spot deadspots more frequently from a mile off. It will also guarantee the inner strength to ward of any outside influence aimed at corrupting your thought process and leading you easily and deliberately to losers. Therein lies the power to suceed tremdiously. Crazy but interesting eh!

Now, here is a very important fact that I want you to take away. Most people who are involved in this game are all wired in the same way when it comes to being receptive. These contrary voices or counter productive information that enters the punter's or listener's head can be very contagious and damaging to anyone who even sees or hears it accident. Why? Because however serious or unserious you are about what you put out, your words will always come out coated in power and authority and there is no way to limit the vast damage that you could be causing instinctive followers who dare to listen to you. Personally I would feel very inadequate if i had to produce two comprehensive wrongs in a row. Finally, I always say this; that there is no connection with what happened in the match with the resulting outcome if we can prove that outcome preceeds play itself. Why then go through the wasteful and pointless effort of a post match explanation that only serves to preserve pride and promote further catastrophe?

Edited August 2, 2022 by liquidglass

[Simeon Borisof]

3 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Firstly, I want you to know that I did not set out to have a go at you in anyway. Rather my main aim as has always been the case with people that I have mentored over ther years, is to first bring them to realise what this game is about and secondly to make them come to realise what it is that they are supposed to be doing in terms of understanding the working structure of the game.  Let me throw this out there by saying that gambling against the bookies is the greatest manipulation of the mind ever known to man and it is totally impossible to come to grips with the modus operandi unless someone opens the door from the inside to let you into the mystery that lies underneath. Let me make it clear by saying that I am not selling or trying to sell anything to you. Rather I always speak most times from the power of the knowledge that i possess stemming from the love that i have for the game.  I have been tremendiously blessed to know all that I know about this indulgence. Everyone that has benefitted from me over the years have just run into me by accident from discussions on forums

Your answer to me makes me understand that your fundamentals like many other people is completely wrong as I already knew is the case. This game is based on a translation or the expression of the metaphysical into reality. Two factors control the game, namely market moves and market forces. Market Moves (odds movement) gives birth to Market Force within a cycle that commences from when the odds are first released to the beginning of play. Within the scope of  market force is a whole lot of encrypted information that needs to be translated or unscrambled by applied knowledge. Murray carrying a slight injury, or Edmunds being unrecognizable from yesterday were all factored into the odds before play. It is just that you could not see or sense what you have never understood. The same goes for a team that receives a red card or even misses a penalty in the 93rd minute. Everything about the game is deliberate. There is no such thing as luck or an out-of-place occurence. Crazy eh! The idea then will be to unlearn everything that you have ever known with a view to relearning by training your mind to understand most of the underlying workings of the game. In summary I would say that everything that happens in a game is a replay of everything that has already happened in the metaphysical realm. The default reasoning now is that the winner of any given match always manifests even before the first ball is struck. YOUR ABILITY TO FIND THAT WINNER IS HEAVILY RELIANT ON THE RESOURCES AT YOUR DISPOSAL of which "stats" is only a minor contributory factor.  Everytime you set out to pick your games or select your winners, you do so by responding to the predominant voices echoing in your head. These voices have a known source. Their key function is to oppose, confuse and bring you deliberately to the loser - This is the key battlepoint of this indulgence. How do you now train your mind to know which voice is authentic and which is not? It takes years of practice and adhering to norms and protocols within the workings of the game to acquire this knowledge. It also takes stubborn will and mind power to be able to navigate within the minefields of this mysterious setup. "Knowing" does not guarantee that you will win everyday, however it will guarantee that you will be able to spot deadspots more frequently from a mile off. It will also guarantee the inner strength to ward of any outside influence aimed at corrupting your thought process and leading you easily and deliberately to losers. Therein lies the power to suceed tremdiously. Crazy but interesting eh!

Now, here is a very important fact that I want you to take away. Most people who are involved in this game are all wired in the same way when it comes to being receptive. These contrary voices or counter productive information that enters the punter's or listener's head can be very contagious and damaging to anyone who even sees or hears it accident. Why? Because however serious or unserious you are about what you put out, your words will always come out coated in power and authority and there is no way to limit the vast damage that you could be causing instinctive followers who dare to listen to you. Personally I would feel very inadequate if i had to produce two comprehensive wrongs in a row. Finally, I always say this; that there is no connection with what happened in the match with the resulting outcome if we can prove that outcome preceeds play itself. Why then go through the wasteful and pointless effort of a post match explanation that only serves to preserve pride and promote further catastrophe?

Well, i am glad we cleared that out how the translation of the metaphysical into reality happens, but what are your thoughts on today's card and do you see any value in it?

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Firstly, I want you to know that I did not set out to have a go at you in anyway. Rather my main aim as has always been the case with people that I have mentored over ther years, is to first bring them to realise what this game is about and secondly to make them come to realise what it is that they are supposed to be doing in terms of understanding the working structure of the game.  Let me throw this out there by saying that gambling against the bookies is the greatest manipulation of the mind ever known to man and it is totally impossible to come to grips with the modus operandi unless someone opens the door from the inside to let you into the mystery that lies underneath. Let me make it clear by saying that I am not selling or trying to sell anything to you. Rather I always speak most times from the power of the knowledge that i possess stemming from the love that i have for the game.  I have been tremendiously blessed to know all that I know about this indulgence. Everyone that has benefitted from me over the years have just run into me by accident from discussions on forums

Your answer to me makes me understand that your fundamentals like many other people is completely wrong as I already knew is the case. This game is based on a translation or the expression of the metaphysical into reality. Two factors control the game, namely market moves and market forces. Market Moves (odds movement) gives birth to Market Force within a cycle that commences from when the odds are first released to the beginning of play. Within the scope of  market force is a whole lot of encrypted information that needs to be translated or unscrambled by applied knowledge. Murray carrying a slight injury, or Edmunds being unrecognizable from yesterday were all factored into the odds before play. It is just that you could not see or sense what you have never understood. The same goes for a team that receives a red card or even misses a penalty in the 93rd minute. Everything about the game is deliberate. There is no such thing as luck or an out-of-place occurence. Crazy eh! The idea then will be to unlearn everything that you have ever known with a view to relearning by training your mind to understand most of the underlying workings of the game. In summary I would say that everything that happens in a game is a replay of everything that has already happened in the metaphysical realm. The default reasoning now is that the winner of any given match always manifests even before the first ball is struck. YOUR ABILITY TO FIND THAT WINNER IS HEAVILY RELIANT ON THE RESOURCES AT YOUR DISPOSAL of which "stats" is only a minor contributory factor.  Everytime you set out to pick your games or select your winners, you do so by responding to the predominant voices echoing in your head. These voices have a known source. Their key function is to oppose, confuse and bring you deliberately to the loser - This is the key battlepoint of this indulgence. How do you now train your mind to know which voice is authentic and which is not? It takes years of practice and adhering to norms and protocols within the workings of the game to acquire this knowledge. It also takes stubborn will and mind power to be able to navigate within the minefields of this mysterious setup. "Knowing" does not guarantee that you will win everyday, however it will guarantee that you will be able to spot deadspots more frequently from a mile off. It will also guarantee the inner strength to ward of any outside influence aimed at corrupting your thought process and leading you easily and deliberately to losers. Therein lies the power to suceed tremdiously. Crazy but interesting eh!

Now, here is a very important fact that I want you to take away. Most people who are involved in this game are all wired in the same way when it comes to being receptive. These contrary voices or counter productive information that enters the punter's or listener's head can be very contagious and damaging to anyone who even sees or hears it accident. Why? Because however serious or unserious you are about what you put out, your words will always come out coated in power and authority and there is no way to limit the vast damage that you could be causing instinctive followers who dare to listen to you. Personally I would feel very inadequate if i had to produce two comprehensive wrongs in a row. Finally, I always say this; that there is no connection with what happened in the match with the resulting outcome if we can prove that outcome preceeds play itself. Why then go through the wasteful and pointless effort of a post match explanation that only serves to preserve pride and promote further catastrophe?

In your rambling post (which sounds like something you semi plagiarized from a gambling book) you state;

"Firstly, I want you to know that I did not set out to have a go at you in anyway"  and yet you hit a bullseye in that department ?

"I would feel very inadequate ..." is actually personal, condescending and insulting.

So thanks for the advice, but frankly,  I really would not like to have you as a 'mentor' ! ? However, if you can put your money where your mouth is, and point me in the direction of 5 straight winners I may consider it  ?

I second @Simeon Borisof in awaiting your learned opinion on todays card ....

Edited August 3, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

I'm afraid we won't get to hear more ramblings anymore!

I'm backing Mandlik to win Over 7.5 games against Badosa at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Those wins over Teichmann and Riske must've given her a world of confidence, while Badosa hasn't played since Wimbledon and has been shaky before that as well. Unless Mandlik cracks under nerves, this is a very low line imo - and her good grind over Teichmann suggests that she can overcome all those butterflies in the stomach.

[neilovan]

27 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm afraid we won't get to hear more ramblings anymore!

I'm backing Mandlik to win Over 7.5 games against Badosa at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Those wins over Teichmann and Riske must've given her a world of confidence, while Badosa hasn't played since Wimbledon and has been shaky before that as well. Unless Mandlik cracks under nerves, this is a very low line imo - and her good grind over Teichmann suggests that she can overcome all those butterflies in the stomach.

At the moment I couldn't hit the ground with a brick, so I'll just listen out.

So I shouldn't be expecting my 5 straight winners ? ?

[amity]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm afraid we won't get to hear more ramblings anymore!

I'm backing Mandlik to win Over 7.5 games against Badosa at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Those wins over Teichmann and Riske must've given her a world of confidence, while Badosa hasn't played since Wimbledon and has been shaky before that as well. Unless Mandlik cracks under nerves, this is a very low line imo - and her good grind over Teichmann suggests that she can overcome all those butterflies in the stomach.

Yes, Badosa is so volatile these days. When she's in the zone, she beats almost anyone (bar the top 5) 6-1, 6-2, but on another day she could easily lose to the likes of Mandlik. I think a punt on Mandlik like the one you've mentioned is definitely worth a punt.

[four-leaf]

Denis Kudla to beat Reilly Opelka at 2.55 with Unibet

I'm not buying Opelka in this match, he's not where he wants to be form or fitnesswise right now Reilly. Something is not right with him while DK had a nice comeback win in first round so I think he fancies his chances tonight.

[neilovan]

One guy I'm not impressed with is Karatsev. Have not seen him look good on the court in ages. Seems to be battling against internal demons, and does not look happy on the court.

This year the stats (?) indicate that is is struggling. Played 33 matches lost 19 for a win rate of 42%. Last year he was miles better played 55 lost 19 for a win rate of  65%. SO it's a big drop off, especially on hard court (2022: W8L7) (2021: W26L11). But it is kind of to be expected. Coaches figure out players quickly, and a keen eye picks up a weakness. I think he's been found out.

Again a very hot day (33C) expected in Washington, but San Jose is much cooler (18C). Ymer really surprised me against Murray. He showed no effects of jetlag or a long flight, and seemed very energized. Really not sure why Karatsev should be favorite here, because his form is lousy.  Ymer for the straight win here, with a 2 unit bet (20 being my max stake.)

 

[four-leaf]

@neilovan thanks for posting when I didn't do it myself even though I am all over Mikey with huge stake (huge for me) at Unibet for the straight win. I am from Sweden just like or maybe not just like because the Ymer brothers are adopted but still he's swedish and I know them both very well how they play. Todays match for Mikey has been just like another day at the office for him. He breaks, gets broken back twice but wins the set anyway because Karatsev isn't copeing with Mikes way of getting to many balls for Karatsev in play time and time again.

Edited August 3, 2022 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

So far Mike hasn't been behind in any state of the match which is a good omen like in any match with any player but maybe not something typical for any of the Ymers but today it is typical for Mikeys showdown which probably means he will win in the long run and finally take some matchpoint.

[four-leaf]

On the day Mikey looks favorable enough for me to be entitled for a win against Karatsev somewhere in the match when he gets ahead in second set or third. No idea if he'll win in straights or not but I think he looks a touch to good for Karatsev

[four-leaf]

Yepp defenitely looks like Mike Ymer has found the groove again

[Foo_Fighter]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Denis Kudla to beat Reilly Opelka at 2.55 with Unibet

I'm not buying Opelka in this match, he's not where he wants to be form or fitnesswise right now Reilly. Something is not right with him while DK had a nice comeback win in first round so I think he fancies his chances tonight.

True, but I feel it's a good chance for Riley to start winning matches again; he's certainly a better player than Kudla. 

[four-leaf]

15 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

True, but I feel it's a good chance for Riley to start winning matches again; he's certainly a better player than Kudla. 

Then he has to show it somewhere first and his game in Atlanta didn't cover much for confidence in him

[four-leaf]

33 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Then he has to show it somewhere first and his game in Atlanta didn't cover much for confidence in him

Sorry he didn't play in Atlanta, I misstook myself for someone else unknown. But still Reilly is losing and losing and losing and when he's like that I don't see why I should have much confidence in him.

[four-leaf]

But the fact that Opelka is doing his first match on hardcourt in awhile versus a warmed up opponent doesn't make me fancy his chances more

[Foo_Fighter]

Taylor Fritz (-4.5 games) to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2.1 with bet365

I think he's gonna destroy the Aussie.