harry_rag

Get to 400 then! ?

Oi, get orrf my thread! 

Just google “Betfair premium charge” and you’ll find plenty of information.
Even at a glance, this page on Betfair should answer most of your questions (just scroll down to 9.4 calculating potential charges).
https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/

Oi, get orrf my thread! 

His Saturday column is available from around 8:00 on a Friday night. Usually considers a general topic then gives his bet of the week with detailed reasoning.
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/premier-league/kevin-pullein-how-much-will-winning-the-title-affect-liverpool/440591

hi, mate, i followed your forum posts for years. Now i'm trying to understand how Kevin works to find the best odds for us. I would just like to ask where I can read these tips from Kevin himself. That last one, for example, I couldn't find on the racingpost.

Thanks for the effort, cheers from Brazil

Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?

First selection, as far as I’m aware, since lockdown began.
Under 6.5 Asian total cards in Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 0.5pt at 1.75 with 365.

Let's put it to the vote. I say we call him T-Bone! 
(Sorry, obscure Seinfeld reference but I couldn't resist it.)

Let's put it to the vote. I say we call him T-Bone! 
(Sorry, obscure Seinfeld reference but I couldn't resist it.)

Let's put it to the vote. I say we call him T-Bone! 
(Sorry, obscure Seinfeld reference but I couldn't resist it.)

Bought hotshots in that game at 41 with SPIN as it looks like clear value. 25 points per goal by Dabbur, Baumgartner, Werner and Schick. Let’s just say there’s an unusual difference of opinion between them and the rest of the market and that’s probably the biggest understatement you’ll encounter this weekend!

3 games in Germany today, 1 in the top flight and 2 in B2.
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig: Ref Welz was an overs winner for me previously and I'm happy to go again at 13/10 for >40 points with Lads. Bit better than the 46 you can buy at and there's a 2 point arb at the moment.
D Dresden v Hamburg: Schroder a solid middle band ref at either level so 6/5 for 4-6 cards shown is a solid selection for me.
SV Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld: Aarnink looks a bet low ref but the prices don't appeal. 12 pens in 11 out of his 26 last B2 games means a buy of pen goal minutes at 15 with SX appeals. Saver on pen taken at 5/2 888 or Sky Bet.

And one more; Steffen for Wolfsburg at 4.4 on BF. All bookies sub 3/1 and I'd agree with that consensus.

Same game, anytime prices for Cordova look huge compared to the spreads (more than double what I'd expect). Even if that's not an accurate comparison I think there's value to be had. 13/2 anytime PP, 80/1 brace and 150/1 to score in both halves Lads.

Only one game interests me based on ref stats in the 2:30 German games, Hertha v Augsburg with Jablonski in charge. Overall he's nothing special either way but the upward trend this season (mirrored in the few B2 games he's done) inclines me towards these bets:
4-6 cards shown at 11/8 Hills and >40 points at 7/5 Lads.

Freiburg v Leverkusen:
4-6 cards shown at 13/10 Hills
Buy Freiburg headed goal mins at 13 with SX
Buy Koch goal mins at 3 with SX and back him anytime at 18/1 Lads.
Respective attack and defence stats suggest that Leverkusen may struggle from set pieces and Koch worth chancing as a potential beneficiary. Ref stats support 4-6 cards at the price.

First bet of the day for me is a buy of Freiburg headed goal mins at 14 with SPIN. Same stats based rationale that lead to a decent win on Leverkusen's last week. The price is 16-19 elsewhere though that would include headed own goals as well.
I've also had a small bet on both teams scoring a header at 14/1 Hills though I'd have preferred a juicy price about 2 or more headers scored.

I used the opportunity while there's been hardly anything to bet on to analyse the results of my spread betting sells, nearly 1500 bets in total (some real money, some "paper trades"). The total return was just shy of 6,000 points but it was good to see what was profitable and what wasn't. As a result I've decided to stop betting real money on some things and start on others, and to raise the minimum price for some markets as well (as the lower price sells struggle to make a decent profit). I've also decided to start paper trading several other bets to see how they perform. (Easier to track more markets while competitions return gradually.)
It's the most detailed study of my betting records that I've ever done and I think it will be really useful. It was also something to do during lockdown! 
Since I recommenced the bets again this weekend there have been 27 paper trades showing a profit of 154 points and 1 actual bet yielding a thumping return of... 1 point! 
Only a tiny sample though and I'm hoping, long term, to get an improved return from the real money bets.

I hope you ignored my "don't pile on" advice as, while the "value" bet lost, the "lazy interest" bet showed a profit of 105 points. Leverkusen's first 3 goals were all from headers.

Might as well stick this in here while I think on.
Also bought Leverkusen headed goal minutes at 17 with SX having seen a stat about the host's struggling from set pieces. Bit of a lazy "fancy an interest" bet rather than properly researched though, so don't all pile on! 

Good luck, decided to swerve this league. With Bundesliga coming back and good old Belarus I don't want to spread myself too thinly! 

The next week of K-League games are coming our way this weekend. Here are the odds. It's a learning curve at this early stage so let's try and pool our thoughts together to maximise our wins. 

Can’t resist a tenner on Taggart anytime at 13/5 PP though hopefully the rest of the day’s betting will be a bit more disciplined!

3+ cards each team can be had at 10/1 with PP under “your odds Paddy up to 10/1”. Had to have a top up.
May have a look at another game or too though will be focusing on Belarus.