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froment

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  1. Sad
    froment reacted to avongirl in Sir Puntalot - R.I.P   
    Can't believe it's been a year already Paul @Sir Puntalot. Hope we're looking after things here OK for you.  Can't wait til everyone can get together to celebrate properly what you did here at Punters Lounge.  💙💙
  2. Like
    froment got a reaction from harry_rag in In Play Odds Calculator/Model   
    Back in the day, there was a site WhatIfOdds, which did exactly what you described; it had boxes for each minute of the match, and shown change of odds throughout the match; you tick the minute box when a goal is scored, and it gives you updated odds after that goal. Beautiful site, that unfortunatelly went down, and I have not seen anything similar ever since.
    In absence of the app, the best solution I can think about is to monitor "adjacent" market; let me explain it for goal lines, it is easier.
    Let's say result is 0-0, and odds are as follows:
    Over 0.5 goals 1.10 Over 1.5 goals 1.40 Over 2.5 goals 1.90 Over 3.5 goals 2.90 If a goal is scored at that moment, all odds will be "shifted" to the next line, i.e:
    Over 0.5 goals closed Over 1.5 goals 1.10 Over 2.5 goals 1.40 Over 3.5 goals 1.90 Over 4.5 goals 2.90 Of course, not exactly the same odds, but add or take a couple of ticks, that would be it. The same applies to Unders.
    For match result, Home/Draw/Away, you monitor European Handicap line (3-way handicap). Let's say:
    1X2 market
    Home win 1.80 Draw 3.60 Away win 4.50 European handicap market, home team -1
    Home win 3.00 Draw 3.80 Away win 2.10 European handicap market, home team +1
    Home win 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away win 10.00 Now, if home team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become
    Home win 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away win 10.00 If away team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become
    Home win 3.00 Draw 3.80 (you see these odds barely changed compared to before goal, they can be even lower - if you ever traded Lay The Draw strategy, you are certainly familiar with "underdog scores first" bomb, duh...) Away win 2.10 For next goal, you observe EH+2 or EH-2 markets, and so on... Similar for AH markets.
    The site I mentioned above, WhatIfOdds, also had ability to include red card impact; I'm not sure how you could evaluate change of odds after red card; certainly not this way.
  3. Like
    froment reacted to harry_rag in Litho   
    Welcome to the forum @Litho
    Well, you don't have to look too far down this section of the forum to find a thread that returned an average of over 50 points per day over 40 days and around 400 bets. That involved the arcane world of spread betting though! 
    Have a look round the forum and you should find plenty of potentially profitable strategies or tipsters, or ideas for developing your own. Especially if you're willing to consider more sports and bookies than football and 365.
    Think of this place as a restaurant where you sit down and browse the menu for a while, rather than where you just turn up hoping to be spoonfed. I appreciate that might sound harsher than intended; what I mean is you probably won't get much response to your request when people are already taking the time and effort to share their strategies, profitbale or otherwise, all over the forum.
  4. Like
    froment reacted to Torque in £100 to £100,000 Glory Hunt (9% Complete)   
    No. I'm all-in. My attitude, and I realise I'm wrong in saying this, is that I started with £100 which is all that I'll really lose and an amount I'm prepared to lose.
  5. Like
    froment reacted to MrImpossible in £100 to £100,000 Glory Hunt (9% Complete)   
    Remember: Treat each bet as the first one.
    Good luck!
  6. Like
    froment got a reaction from MCLARKE in Draw Betting Strategy   
    From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  7. Like
    froment got a reaction from MacBBet in Draw Betting Strategy   
    From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  8. Thanks
    froment got a reaction from harry_rag in Draw Betting Strategy   
    From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  9. Like
    froment got a reaction from Torque in Draw Betting Strategy   
    From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  10. Thanks
    froment got a reaction from ReyPunter in Which is the best site for preview football matches?   
    When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis.
    Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com...
    However, I also like to have raw data on my disposal, and then I do my manipulation with them. My favourite sources are Football-Data.co.uk and CGMBet.com; the later one is an incredible tool, I guess you are aware of its own successfull thread here:
    I publish some of the tools I use on my site, BetGPS.com. I also like the spreadsheets available at OddsPredictor.org.uk, they have very interesting stats.
  11. Thanks
    froment got a reaction from harry_rag in Which is the best site for preview football matches?   
    When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis.
    Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com...
    However, I also like to have raw data on my disposal, and then I do my manipulation with them. My favourite sources are Football-Data.co.uk and CGMBet.com; the later one is an incredible tool, I guess you are aware of its own successfull thread here:
    I publish some of the tools I use on my site, BetGPS.com. I also like the spreadsheets available at OddsPredictor.org.uk, they have very interesting stats.
  12. Thanks
    froment reacted to harry_rag in Over / Under for Tuesday 10.2.21   
    Good luck with the bets mate but, if this is a glory hunt, just put all the selections in a single thread and update the performance as you go. There’s no need, and it’s not the appropriate use of this section, to post a new thread every day. (And it’s not Tuesday today either!) 
  13. Thanks
    froment reacted to Heisenberg68 in 💈I'm a loser 🥴 but I'm going to make it 😏   
    Hi everyone 😐
    It's me again. I'm a loser right now, can't win. I can't manage my bank. I can't manage a thread.
    I don't forget my last threads all losers. 😟
    my-challenge-for-2021
    Road to 2021
    I absolutely have to fix my problem, because I can't deposit more than £100 a month. 😒
    I love this forum, I really like the members 😀
    @Fader in with snooker and darts
    @JdsGooner90 @waggy @Skittle  for their threads (skittle doesn't like me lol )
    @StevieDay1983 for his analyses and also the members of the tennis party .

     That's also why I want to continue and succeed. 
    I absolutely have to play sports that I know well such as soccer ⚽️ tennis 🎾  rugby 🏉 Cricket 🏏  snooker 🎱 
    For tennis, I must absolutely play only ATP. Not the challengers, not the WTA, not the ITF. 
    ➡️ To be successful, I will put a stop loss of 10% per day, and limit deposits on bet fair to £100 per month. So if I lose, it's over. 
    So I'm begin with only £500 and deposit £100 a month until December. 
    I'd like to win £50 a month ideally.
    If all goes well, by December 2021 I'll have £2000.
    That would be wonderful but there is work to be done. 
    ➡️ I'm counting on you to fight me if I don't play by the rules. 

    you can ban me if I don’t respect my rules 😔
     
    🤟 see you tomorrow 
     
    ——————————————————
    Hi , 
    Finally I realise that being away from home for this business trip gives me even more time to devote myself to betting. So I'm not going to take up this thread again. 
    A few changes : 
    Starting bank: £500. 
    Monthly deposit: £100 
    Target December 2021: £2000 

    💷 No more than 5% per bet 
    ➡️ No more than 1 bet in progress 
    💸 Limit Loss: £90 per day  (Reset at 6:15 Pm) 
    💳 Deposit limit: £100 per month

    Start: £500
    Deposit: March +£100 
    💰 Bank: £600
  14. Thanks
    froment reacted to ALEXXXXXXXX in Premier League Clubs' Interesting Nicknames   
    Arsenal - The Gunners

    Arsenal's nickname 'The Gunners' is a reference to the club's origins, having been formed by workers from the Royal Arsenal armament factory in Woolwich in 1886. And it is also showed on their logo.

  15. Thanks
    froment reacted to ALEXXXXXXXX in Premier League Clubs' Interesting Nicknames   
    Manchester City - Blue Moon

    It is said that Man City fans often sing blue moon to cheer themselves up. The first time when it was sung was at the opening game of the 1989-90 season at Liverpool. Some Man City fans sang a sort of melancholic version when Man City was down, and it caught on in later days. Now Blue Moon has been a surname of Manchester City.

  16. Thanks
    froment reacted to ALEXXXXXXXX in Premier League Clubs' Interesting Nicknames   
    Manchester United - Red Devil

    When Salford's dominant rugby league team (Salford is the main district within the City of Salford, Greater Manchester) traveled to France to play games, their unbeaten record impressed the native so the French call them Red Devil. Manchester United dressed in red as Salford. So they take the red devil as their nickname. In 1970s, a devil with a trident in hand was added to the club's logo.

  17. Thanks
    froment reacted to ALEXXXXXXXX in Premier League Clubs' Interesting Nicknames   
    English Premier League has a long history. Some of clubs of the League is even older than League itself. Each club has their own culture, where their nickname come from. Let's talk about some interesting nickname of English Premier League clubs.

  18. Like
    froment reacted to Hollandspeler in Random just as good ?   
    Just trying to figure out if using statistics  and knowledge is better than pure random picking.
    I am building a data base of predictions from a site on the internet (not this one) and compare their predictions with pure random picks.
     
    For so far i have only a couple of days. (not very accurate yet) .
    What i see does not impress me much.
    btts and win  
    site prediction 
    1 yes 39      predictions  correct       11
    x yes  24      predictions correct       6
    2 yes   30     predictions correct       8
    total predictions   93   correct   25    =    26.88%
     
    random predictions   93     (same matches)  correct 17   = 18.28%
    1x2 predictions
    site prediction
    1    75 pred     correct         39
    x     29 pred    correct          8
    2      51 pred   correct         29
    total 155 games   correct   76   =  49.03% 
     
    random prredictions  1x2   (same matches )   155
    total correct (1x2)    53.        34.19%
     
    Over 2.5
    site prediction 
    73 predictions         correct    38    = 52.05%
    under 2.5
    site prediction   
    80 predictions      correct    40  =   50%
    random predictions   (same matches )   153   correct  73  =  45.75 %
     
  19. Like
    froment reacted to Josephus in Betgps and new_league_data   
    Thanks to betgps Excel data. I've been able to create a prediction page in it which works perfectly well. Prediction includes Home win, Away win, Over 1.5, Over 2.5,Btts, Under 3.5. I'll post this later when I make the sheet clean BUT is there anyone who can also create a compilation of the new league data like betgps OR if anyone can send a video of how to go about it, I can do it since I have a lot of free hours to myself. I am just learning Excel and I have cracked my head trying to do the same thing and summit it to the forum or to betgps himself as an art appreciation. Any help will do.
  20. Like
    froment reacted to StevieDay1983 in Clampdown on Use of External Site Promotion   
    Good morning all!
    Just a quick message to say that we have seen a rise in cases recently of members using this forum as an excuse to promote their own ventures, businesses, websites, and blogs. Punters Lounge has never been about pushing promotional material onto its members and it's reached a stage now where we feel action needs to be taken.
    It has been decided that from now on the use of promoting external sites (mainstream ones such as BBC, Sky Sports, and bookmakers such as Bet365, Betfair, Betfred etc are exempt obviously!) either in a username, avatar, or posts will no longer be tolerated.
    We accept that a number of members contribute positively to this forum and are involved in their own projects so we will still allow members to have a single link with a single line of promotional blurb maximum in their signature. That way, any members that do wish to find out more about that member can click on the link but it's not something that is rammed down their throats.
    The Punters Lounge staff team will spend the next few weeks looking to address this issue by contacting those we feel need to make changes to their usernames, avatars, or posts. We encourage you to save us time and hassle by either changing these yourself if you feel you are one of those individuals or giving one of us a PM if you spot a member that you feel needs to change these details. Any members that fail to make the necessary changes or continue to flaunt these new guidelines will be warned and, if required, be banned.
    Punters Lounge remains a place where we encourage discussion and laughs about the various sports and topics at hand. We hope that by clamping down on promotional material that can come across as spam posting we will generate a more positive, welcoming, and enjoyable forum experience for all that post here.
    Thank you! 
  21. Haha
    froment reacted to Skittle in ΤΟΜΑΗAWKS BEST OFF   
    I didn't have the spare time to read and digest it all. Rather you than me mate. 🤥
  22. Like
    froment reacted to only1woz in The return of ELL TEE DEE.......   
    I've been a bit bored this week, off work for the UK holiday this week. Not much to do, so trawled through the forum and came across my old system test. 
     
    I'm going to give this a go again until the end of the season. Would love to make profit, but will be happy to just gain info and see what works (if anything!) to refine for next season. I got frustrated with it last time, as it's very much an up and down system, but looking to be more patient and positive this time!
    Last time, the first season produced a profit of around £150.00 roughly.
    Same selection criteria before, matches where the last 5 matches between the same 2 teams have produced AT LEAST four over 2.5 goals results. I originally was testing for an overs/under system, but it seemed to throw up a lot of wins for either team. Noticed after a while that it also performed better with no lays of 6.00 or above.
    Will test for most European leagues, also English lower leagues. All prices from Betfair, where I now have 2% commission instead of 5% so that should help a little. Lays will be for £10.00 for the sake of records for the system, but NO MONEY WILL BE STAKED AT THIS POINT, and I would strongly recommend no one follow with actual bets this time around, but if anyone feels the need, it should be minimal stakes. Although the first season produced profit, it was £250.00 down at one point, before clawing back at the end. I stopped the 2nd season at -£200.00, so extreme caution advised.
    Any questions or comments are welcome. I'll need to wait until at least Friday for first selections, and there won't be many but Saturday and Sunday should be packed.  
     
  23. Thanks
    froment reacted to Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    Here's one for the early birds, a 50/1 chance that's starting to look like an odds on chance.
    The Bookies have Bolton Wanderers as 5/1 favourites to win League 2, their reasoning being that Bolton wouldn't have been relegated last season if the club hadn't gone into Administration, but they did, 12 points were deducted, the trap door opened and down they went, that was bad enough but this doesn't help.
    On 21 November 2019, Bolton were handed a five-point deduction, suspended for 18 months, and fined £70,000, half of which was suspended for 18 months, for failure to fulfil two fixtures (against Brentford and Doncaster).  The points would not be deducted if Bolton fulfil all fixtures during the 18-month period.
    So if the club goes into Administration again they wouldn't just have 12 points deducted it would be 12 points plus the 5 above, put it this way, a 17 point deduction would have relegated 9 teams in the Premiership last season, that's how bad a 17 point deduction would be.
    But what's the odds of Bolton going into Administration again, would you offer 50/1 if you weren't a Wanderers Fan ? the question is, what could trigger the trap door to see the club relegated again, give this some thought. The club and the adjoining hotel were bought out of Admin last August for around £17.4 million by a consortium headed up by local millionaire businessman Michael James, multimillionaire Sharon Brittan and a couple of smaller players. At the time there were four Directors, but within just a few months two of decided to walk, to Football Ventures is now down to just two Directors, Michael and Sharon, that's the absolute Legal minimum for a company to operate in the UK.
    https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11761052/officers
    Football Ventures took over the club and the hotel last August, no clouds on the horizon then, the attendance at the club has kept the club afloat for years, chances are the hotel was doing well too, but Covid changes everything. Future Ventures have to find £59,000 a month towards the hotel at a time when hotels are struggling, it doesn't help that Bolton is now the epicentre for Covid, so chances are the hotel won't be bringing in much money. If that's not bad enough, there's no gate money right now, games are played behind closed doors, that's going to put a lot of PRESSURE on a lot of clubs in every league not just BWFC. 
    The arrangement with Quantuma, who oversaw the administration of the Bolton Whites Hotel, and David Rubin and Co, who undertook the football club administration, has been secured with club assets. It also included an agreement with Quantuma to defer some payments during lockdown while the hotel was not in operation, with the process set to resume shortly at a reported cost of £59,000 a month.
     
    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/18687275.bolton-wanderers-owners-say-will-pay-3-5m-bill-avoid-efl-penalties/
    Owning a Football Club is a Vanity Venture for Billionaires these days, Millionaires can soon find themselves out of their depth.
    Looking at who's who in League 2, last season just 5 teams of the 24 teams averaged more than 5,000 per game, that's OK if the overheads for your club are as low as Macclesfield, Crawley, Morecambe, Stevenage, Cheltenham and the like, but which club in League 2 do you think has the highest overheads, chances are the bike shed at Bolton is bigger than the Stand at Morecambe, are any teams carrying more debt ? BWFC owe HMRC over £1 million. I don't know about you, but I've lost count already !!!
    So where does the money come from to keep the club going, I suppose Michael and Sharon could keep pumping money in, or look for a wealthy Russian or a wealthy Saudi, good luck selling League 2 to them.
    Is that 50/1 on offer for Bolton to be relegated into oblivion looking over the odds yet ? I don't think the Bookies considered any of the above, chances are they are thinking a League 1 club playing in League 2, but the team isn't what it was last season, it's now a lads and dads team, youth players and a few can I say OLDER players, that can work, but so far it hasn't clicked, it's P5 D3 L2 and in the process Bolton got beat at home by Bradford City a team who hadn't won away since October 2019 !!!
    I fear that Bolton's team look more like Fray Bentos than Juventus, I don't see them doing well in League 2, certainly not well enough to have 17 points deducted and survive the drop.           No doubt the Loyal Fans think the Wanderers will come straight back up, but I fancy the Titanic will come back up before the Wanderers do.
    The writing will be on the wall if they don't beat Forest Green this Saturday, that 5/1 to win the league might soon become 50/1 and the 50/1 against being relegated will soon be rubbed off the boards. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/relegation
    Perfect Storm.
    PS: in case your wondering, my money is on already...
     
     
     
  24. Like
    froment reacted to nenad986 in CS 1:1 by Hronman   
    Results 30.08.2020.  + 6.00 pt (1/1) 
    Profit/lose: +13.50 pt (3/8)
     
     

  25. Like
    froment got a reaction from nenad986 in Super Draw Bet by Hronman   
    This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture!
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