Draw Betting Strategy

[MacBBet]

Hello!

I have been betting on draws now for a couple of years and this strategy really gives you good profit, if you stick to the strategy. 

The goal is simple, make money from betting on draws in soccer.
I will try to make it easy for you and give you the right matches, all you have to do is to bet on the matches i give you and you will be profitable.

The strategy:
I recommend you to use the Fibonacci-sequece with the staking

(1)-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-…

With the Fibonacci staking we can accept draw odds as low as 2,61 and still make a profit. Another good reason to use Fibonacci is that its esier to cash out with profit earlier in the game, for example if the game is draw in 80th minute and you want to avoid loosing because of a late goal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number

Example:
Starting stake 5€:
5€ - loss
10€ - loss
15€ - loss
25€ - win, with 3.00 odds we make a profit of 45€

Alternative strategy:
Rise the stake by 1,5 after every loss, with this strategy you need higher odds to be profitable.

Example:
5€ - loss
7,5€ - loss
11€ - loss
17€ - win, with 3.00 odds we make a profit of 10,50€

The matches:

If you subscribe to my private channel I will give you the matches. In the private channel i will post the matches every day, the number of matches varies day to day but i try to give you as many as possible.

My stats from last month:

45 wins
83 losses
Of the 83 losses 7 came from late goal (90+ minute), possible to cash out.
My longest loosing streak last month was 9 matches

With only 2€ starting stake my profit with average 3.00 odds was 208€ incl. cashout and 377€ without cashout and letting the matches run to the end.

[FabianFontas]

2 hours ago, MacBBet said:

The Fibonacci-sequence with the staking seems really interesting.

 

[MCLARKE]

The true test of a system is whether it makes a profit at level stakes. A staking plan will not make an unprofitable system profitable.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, MacBBet said:

If you subscribe to my private channel I will give you the matches. In the private channel i will post the matches every day, the number of matches varies day to day but i try to give you as many as possible.

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,

3 hours ago, MacBBet said:

With only 2€ starting stake my profit with average 3.00 odds was 208€ incl. cashout and 377€ without cashout and letting the matches run to the end.

Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

[froment]

On 3/22/2021 at 6:33 PM, harry_rag said:

Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.

Edited March 23, 2021 by froment

[MacBBet]

So far in march i have 42 wins of 108 matches, 38,9 % winning. 

Everyone can feel free to choose their staking but i prefer fibonacci

March (with average odds of 3.00):

Flat staking: +18 units

Rise 1,5 times from previous stake: +74 units

Fibonacci-system: +153 units

I think this makes it clear why i prefer the fibonacci staking...

 

[harry_rag]

I'm not sure how long you're going to be here given your assistance in trying to spam a paid service but I ask again, what would have been the return if you had divided the total amount you staked on the selections equally across all of them? I'm trying to understand the difference in return if the same amount of money had been staked equally on every selection rather than in random amounts dictated by the staking plan. Thanks in advance, assuming you're willing to answer.

[MacBBet]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I'm not sure how long you're going to be here given your assistance in trying to spam a paid service but I ask again, what would have been the return if you had divided the total amount you staked on the selections equally across all of them? I'm trying to understand the difference in return if the same amount of money had been staked equally on every selection rather than in random amounts dictated by the staking plan. Thanks in advance, assuming you're willing to answer.

Sorry for spamming, didnt read the rules good enough

Here is a sheet with the profit, staking and winnings from the different staking plans. Starting with 1 unit.

[harry_rag]

Thanks. By my reckoning the level stakes profit would be 73 points if you'd staked the 438 points from the "Fib" strategy equally across all the selections, so clearly the staking plan has outperformed level stakes on this small sample but that's a much more accurate comparison than the 18 points v 153 points one,

It remains my opinion that the key thing here is being able to consistently pick winners so as to return a profit at level stakes. Whether your strategy would outperform level stakes over, say, 1000 bets would be interesting to see. (As would whether you can remain in profit over such a sample size.) I remain suspicious of the staking plan because it feels like you're betting different stake levels on different bets for no good reason. For example you may end up having 89 points on one bet, not because you think it is a strong selection, but because you've had a long run of losing bets. If that bet wins, it's back to one point, not because you think it's a much weaker selection but because you've just had a winner. You could throw darts to determine the staking level for each bet and it might show a better return than level stakes but, for a modest sample size, it wouldn't convince me of the merits of the staking plan.

It would be good to see you post a few selections on here for us to see how you do but thanks, at least, for responding to the queries so far.

[MacBBet]

On 3/25/2021 at 6:19 PM, harry_rag said:

Thanks. By my reckoning the level stakes profit would be 73 points if you'd staked the 438 points from the "Fib" strategy equally across all the selections, so clearly the staking plan has outperformed level stakes on this small sample but that's a much more accurate comparison than the 18 points v 153 points one,

It remains my opinion that the key thing here is being able to consistently pick winners so as to return a profit at level stakes. Whether your strategy would outperform level stakes over, say, 1000 bets would be interesting to see. (As would whether you can remain in profit over such a sample size.) I remain suspicious of the staking plan because it feels like you're betting different stake levels on different bets for no good reason. For example you may end up having 89 points on one bet, not because you think it is a strong selection, but because you've had a long run of losing bets. If that bet wins, it's back to one point, not because you think it's a much weaker selection but because you've just had a winner. You could throw darts to determine the staking level for each bet and it might show a better return than level stakes but, for a modest sample size, it wouldn't convince me of the merits of the staking plan.

It would be good to see you post a few selections on here for us to see how you do but thanks, at least, for responding to the queries so far.

The result from march month was 51 wins and 91 losses, 35,9 % hit-rate.

I think the biggest difference between flat betting and the staking plan is, that with the staking plan you can´t play matches that are played at the same time. I think the hit-rate could be higher if I was just trying to find the draws for flat-betting. 

With the staking plan you can still make good profit even if you only hit one match per day, and one per day is good enough.