Sir Puntalot

Thanks for my mug and pens and the lovely colour of them Blue and White, I've had plenty of cups of tea .
Cheers Malky 

Received my mugs and pens yesterday. Thanks @ Sir Puntalot
 

to Punters Lounge @ProfessorMJ   

My bad, already edited it ?

In addition to the trends highlighted above, have also flagged:
20/20 were aged 3-7
20/20 had won in a field with 10+ runners
18/18 had run in a class 2 or 3 last time out
14/14 (18/19) had carried 9-6 max
13/13 were officially rated 92+
12/12 had won at least 1 of its last 12 races
10/10 (19/20) had run in the past 56 days
10/10 had won a class 3+
These trends narrow the field to 'just' four: DAKOTA GOLD, MUSCIKA, STAXTON & REPUTATION
Agree re the latter, esp given the record of both trainer & jock with 4+ year olds at the course

Too soon to mention that I'm a Hearts fan? 

Awesome first posts -  to Punters Lounge @Ulrik.  

Everton x Watford
Everton are one of the strongest teams out of the top six, and come from a very weak game against Crystal Palace. Despite wasted chances like Sigurdsson's, the team still missed Gueye a lot, and in addition André Gomes was injured, and Schneiderlin was sent off. A bad performance of the midfielders which made the attack even more faint against the Palace.
Watford, on the other hand, was also a very incapable team in round 1, it was very favorite, and I even bet on them in the newsstand and as tipster but the team was dented by Brighton with a 3-0 at home being completely dominated. Despite that, I see Everton with great ability to win this game here and win well. Moise Kean must be much better adapted and should start the game, and Iwobi should be available as well and is a great addition, as Bernard has no ability to be a Premier League player and this English League absurd pace.
I see Everton having to win as usual, and he can't start the championship softly if he wants the long-awaited Top 6 opener. It must be a very tough and open game, but Everton has greatly improved his defense at the end of the season. past and it has started here. With two absences in midfield, André Gomes injured and Schneiderlin sent off, Tom Davies and Gbamin are expected to enter, leaving a more loose but less offensive midfield. I see a lot of value in this game, the Toffies have a great team and a lot of quality. Marco Silva who was questioned a lot last season had a good season and once again had a lot of reinforcements and a good depth. Watford has a lot of problems in that, they have a very short squad, and that makes it difficult, since probably Deulofeu should not play and the team has no player with the slightest ability to replace the Spaniard at the time. This -0.75 in good odds has a lot of value.
BET: Everton -0,75 odds: 2.02 in Pinnacle

Southampton x Liverpool
Liverpool had a very tough game for the Super Cup and had an easier win than they looked against Norwich, the team struggled and found the first goal, which makes it easy, although I don't consider this team so close to City and I think Manchester team must have a season farther than last season, this line brought to this game is very badly adjusted.
Southampton started with defeat in the championship, and did not perform well, and although Liverpool are tired, and will not be able to count on their two main goalkeepers, Alisson and Adrian injured, the team is still MUCH superior to the Saints team. I see this very bad line despite the beginning of the season, where you start betting at most losing only half of your bet.
Alexander Arnold is Liverpool's goal scorer, and only played in extra time against Chelsea, and Firmino didn't start playing either and should be totally 100% for that game. With Salah, Firmino, Mané in shape, and Arnold back, I see the Liverpool team fully capable of winning this game away from home. I see the oddmakers with a very optimistic view on Southampton of what they really should, although the coach is doing a good job, the team is not going to be good this season, they have a short squad and nothing much, and they didn't sign any names. weight for this season for such a big improvement.
I see Liverpool with a lot of value here, at -1.25 with odds over 2, and I would be very surprised if Klopp's team can't reflect that advantage on the field. The two coaches know each other, and Southampton must be close enough to be able to counterattack with Redmond and Che Adams. But Liverpool are a very dominant team and should beat Saints quite easily here.
Liverpool -1.25 odds: 2.08 Pinnacle

Thanks @Sir Puntalot Very nice results! You only need 1 in 6 or 7 at those prices.

Yes but if the cashout odds were obviously incorrect, then it's the same rule.
You can cashout at a lot of bookmakers these days, but it's debatable whether you're getting good value when doing so.  

to Punters Lounge @JayLfc88   

I've read your post twice and I'm still confused.  

Regardless of the wrong horse, you placed a £1k bet on it and cashed out. I don't understand why the other horse that you didn't back, has anything to do it?  

Yes but if the cashout odds were obviously incorrect, then it's the same rule.
You can cashout at a lot of bookmakers these days, but it's debatable whether you're getting good value when doing so.  

to Punters Lounge @osawalovelymo   

We list all recommended and trusted here https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-sites and new betting sites here https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-sites/new-bookmakers   

to PL @puntiver  
PM's are granted after new members have contributed for a while - why do you need them?

@BillyHills No probs I will start to use caps and mainly lower case in future.  Sorry for the inconvenience. 

Thanks for your reply.

The aim here is to summarise how you think certain teams are doing, good or bad and any surprise packages. More of a general thread, so we'll see how it goes.  
Summarising a few teams and their performances below.

Expected Top Teams

Leeds - Small squad but most teams are scared stiff of them because of how well they play, lacking a striker and badly need one or they could possibly miss out on automatic promotion again. Must be better at home breaking down teams that park the bus like Forest did.

Fulham - Overhyped and I'm not convinced at the moment. Unproven manager in probably the most difficult league in the world
Cardiff - They seem to have been a little dismissed, but they'll be right up there again in my opinion. Probably the toughest team and manager in the division.

Surprises

Sheff Weds, Charlton & QPR - all started really well and if they can keep those performances up, could surprise, but it's a long season. Worth following for a while.

Mediocre/Struggling

Stoke, Derby, Swansea, Forest - they all look very average in my opinion. You have to score goals in this division, but be relatively tight at the back, they all look too defensive at the moment and you cannot be in that mindset and get in the top 6 at the end of the season.

These are just teams that stood out for me.   Don't rip me apart too much!  

to Punters Lounge @Witcher27   

Liverpool vs Norwich
OK, we're finally here, let's do this! The first preview of the 2019/20 Premier League season is the Friday night kick-off between reigning Champions League winners and league runners-up Liverpool and newly promoted Norwich in an 8pm start at Anfield. It's a game where the home team have been installed as the clear favourites but will the top flight new boys spring a surprise?
Liverpool might have won Europe's elite competition last season but it's no secret that the trophy their fans really want is the Premier League. Jurgen Klopp has built a squad that pushed champions Manchester City all the way last season managing to earn 97 points yet still miss out on the title by a single point. No big name signings have been brought in so we can expect much of the same from the Reds this season. Will the lack of proven new additions hold them back though?
Norwich are back in the Premier League for the first time since 2015/16. Daniel Farke has pulled off a miracle by turning this squad around. It seemed as though it was going to end in tears after their 14th placed finish in the Championship two seasons ago. However, the right work in the transfer market saw the German manager construct a team that would go on to win the Championship title. The signings of Josip Drmic, Sam Byram, and Patrick Roberts are particularly exciting. There is still debate about whether the Canaries have strengthened enough or not.
What a game to start the season. I'm not entirely sure Norwich have enough about them to stay up but in this opening game they'll be full of guts and effort. Liverpool have looked just as dangerous as they did last season so we can expect a similar approach by them. I think the score here all depends how long Norwich can hold out for. Liverpool are awesome at home under Klopp so the league schedule couldn't have been tougher for Norwich. I think Liverpool should win by two goals but it won't be the stroll in the park some are predicting.
Draw (Liverpool -2) @ 4.33 with Bet365
Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.10 with Betfred
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @ndanmak, @cummins91, @vicsuna, @abigail, @Carovie, @thfc, @Hitch, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys placing?
 

Hi everyone,
I've been following this thread for quite a while and really enjoyed your input here but haven't written anything so far. There is one bet for today that came to my attention, it's Purcell - Soeda (Aptos challenger, hard surface) and I'm wondering why initial odds has dropped so much in favour of Soeda. Purcell holds H2H record of 3-0  (2 on hard courts, 1 indoors), last meeting was in March, and Purcell has a 27/15 record on hard courts this year against 13/12 for Soeda. Does any of you have an idea what might be the reason to value Purcell with odds like @2.30 at Unibet? If there is nothing that I'm not aware of I think that there is a good value in this bet.

2 matches to look at now as I think the price will go on both. Sadly both against my teams...
Merstham vs Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier Division) 
Merstham won this fixture 3-0 last season but a lot has changed since then - Merstham have a completely new squad and manager and having watched them in pre season it’s going to take time for them to gel, if at all. Hornchurch haven’t had it all their way in pre season but have pitched themselves against stronger opposition and have done OK. They held Dagenham & Redbridge with some
of Hornchurch key players missing, conceding a last min. goal. 
Favs to win the league with some strong additions to their squad, I would have expected odds on for Hornchurch, especially as I know that with Merstham home advantage is often not an advantage at all!! 
Hornchurch to win 6/5 (Bet365) 
Bromley vs Torquay (National League)
Quick and easy tip...from reports of Tuesday night, Bromley were really good, Torquay were really poor. I know Darran doesn’t fancy Torquay this season and that’s good enough for me to side with Bromley who I read were simply outstanding at times on Tuesday night. 
Bromley to win 6/4 (Bet365)
Wouldn’t put anyone off the double as well!
 
 

Definitely for Boro, wide open and very slack at the back. Luton may be of the mindset that they may as well go out and play attacking football as they're going to struggle otherwise.
The Championship in general is going to be a goal fest this season I think.

Definitely for Boro, wide open and very slack at the back. Luton may be of the mindset that they may as well go out and play attacking football as they're going to struggle otherwise.
The Championship in general is going to be a goal fest this season I think.

@Richard the Courier While I understand they are similar bets, I think are very different at the same time. BTTS relies on both teams having the ability to put the ball in the back of the net, while Over 1.5 just relies on 1 team.
Let's take an example:

Barnsley v Fulham
Over 1.5 Goals is 2/7 (1.29) 

BTTS is 8/11 (1.72)

You wouldn't expect such a big gap between the 2 markets, but I've found that to be quite common. With most teams preferring to play a more attacking style of football these days, and perhaps even VAR may add to total goals, I think BTTS is by far the better value bet.
VAR is a speculative comment, of course we'd need 2/3 seasons of data to know what effect it has had on total goals.