rainz

Its all about surface + Van is having issues with physical fitness.

i saw gojo yesterday and he was serving very very well. and he plays his best on quicker hardcourts. but ivashka is the defending champion here and last year he covered this type of HC in three matches against good servers like struff and in his last matches he covered this HC as well against players like sock, halys, mcdonald and ruusuvuori....so maybe the line seems okay.

Miomir Kecmanovic - Jannik Sinner|| over 21.5 games || 1.71@Olybet
What a comeback serbian made last night. Defeating Careno Busta, break point down įin the 2nd set , he came back with a blast. He looked sharrp and calm under the pressure. 
They met two times and both were tight games. Expecting serbian to do well in this game again.

For tonight , I think Paul is a good bet . I will bet ?
Very good form , best court for him and Shapo isn’t enough regular. 

*sorry for my English ?. I try to don’t use translator now , so it’s difficult . ?
 

Quite unfortunate with Sonego, he was the better player for most of the match, should've taken it into a final set TB as well, but there was a rain break just before his final service game and Shelton got lucky on a big point. Cirstea over Kvitova is still holding at 2.48 and I'll take that, looks like a 50/50 match to me. Based on yesterday, Shelton should get beaten handily by Rudd, but the odds are way too short and he has nothing to lose, so not gonna take any of the handicaps.

Kudermetova was easy, Wawrinka almost got there as well, but no cigar. Despite the hype, I think that Sonego over Shelton at 1.62 with Unibet is worth it tomorrow. He's already played two matches in the qualifiers, and Shelton is still inexperienced on this level. 

Cincy + Vancouver + Challengers. 
Wawrinka against Murray will be pretty nostalgic, and, to be honest, I think that Wawrinka over Murray at 3.34 with Pinnacle offers quite some value. Both have been poor lately, and I don't see Wawrinka being that poorer, really. I also like Kudermetova over Krejcikova at 1.67 with Unibet. It's hard to trust the Czech's fitness, and she's yet to beat a player of Kudermetova's level since coming back after the injury.

I'm starting to get more and more impressed by the NCAA champion Ben Shelton and his progress on the challenger tour, today he was just totally relentless and impossible to beat.

Last year Bonzi won six challengers and five of them were on hardcourt...in this career he played 300+ matches on hard and 200- on clay...I wouldn't necessarily call him a clay court player

Looking at these North American tournaments, you really have to find a way to bet smart. You have to be able to control some of the outcomes in your bets. Either taking a small loss, or bailing out, or cashing out a couple of legs that have won.  So you have to have bets, and parlays that will conclude before you go to sleep. Otherwise you have no control (and you sleep with 1 eye open), and you can't adjust or have any influence. SO be disciplined and be aware of match starting times. I like to take low staked multi legged bets in these situations. I'll stake at levels, where I won't stress if I lose, and hopefully I find 1 or 2 parlays that work. 
For me I don't see much on the card for ATP Montreal qualifying. These matches look like 50-50 shouts.
In the Washington Final I think that Kyrigos overpowers Kishioka with his serve. Just a dominant weapon. Kyrigos has also been very good from the baseline. I feel that he should cover the -4.5 game handicap at odds of 1.9  Two other bets I do like are Tomljanovic and Lui to both win. The treble works out at 2 to 1 which is fine for me.
 
 

Short odds, but I think there's still a slight edge in Lehecka to beat Mpetshi at 1.30 with Unibet. He's an ATP level player, loves playing at home, and this tournament really is his to win now.

@neilovan thanks for posting when I didn't do it myself even though I am all over Mikey with huge stake (huge for me) at Unibet for the straight win. I am from Sweden just like or maybe not just like because the Ymer brothers are adopted but still he's swedish and I know them both very well how they play. Todays match for Mikey has been just like another day at the office for him. He breaks, gets broken back twice but wins the set anyway because Karatsev isn't copeing with Mikes way of getting to many balls for Karatsev in play time and time again.

I took [email protected] at pinnacle to win over Alcaraz. I watched almost all matches of Carlos during the last two weeks, and I have to say he did not impresse me, he struggled in so many matches and even yesterday he was saved by the cramps of his oppenent. On the other side, Sinner is a machine, if he finds his shots consistently over the entire match I don't see how Alcaraz can survive today.

Taking a small/medium bet on Pedro Martinez to beat Jarry. Even money 6-6 first set at beginning of breaker. Martinez technically far better, and Jarry's serve will go off at some stage.

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.
Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.
I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 
Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

Lopezs most likely last grass court event ever at newport.My has he fallen on the green stuff in recent years.Hes 100-1 to win it..
 
Baez at 20-1 to win the swedish tourney is quite good odds.Worth a bet for sure..

I just want to say: what a shame that Fritz didn't find the way to win against Nadal..so many missed opportunities in that one.. You were on the right track with this pick..fantastic value as well..a pity..

I have an early Christmas gift for everybody
Is tomorrow 02/07/July
Tsitsipas to beat Kyrgios @ 2.14 offered by Meridianbet.
I watched carefully both of them. Tsitsipas is now different player on grass. Perhaps the contribution of the new coach in his team? Probably. He moves better, and he is hitting the ball very accurately. In addition he managed to hold his upsides and downs better than even just a couple of months ago. He stopped doing silly mistakes. He continue of course to make mistakes, but much less than before. 
Kyrgios is a fool. I wonder how he escaped with the victory over the inexperienced Briton Jubb. Actually Jubb lost it, and not the other way.
I am highly confident on this one.
10/10 for me. 
I know that some others will pick Kyrgios, because they probably didn't notice what a fool is on his head and on his game the Aussie, especially lately. Kyrgios won few weeks ago against Tsitsipas on grass, but now the circumstances are totally different.
But i like to take the risk. Besides, betting means risk. Everything has price, even the 1.01 may lose. Happened to witness this in horses final stages when the leading the race was the huge favorite from the beginning, and the last horse that stage which was pricing 1000/1 finally won the race. After the race- back in year 2011- i learned that the rider of the winner horse was a legend rider! 
I am sure that the fans of British horse races have in mind this story. I was just spending my time on betfair following the lay method. With this lay method on horse races, you may win small amounts of money but with risk to pay a lot if one of your layers finally wins the race, but to me never happened during that era because i stopped in year 2012. This is the best method of betting, providing that you have money, you have time because you have to stay in races for many hours as you understand! And is absolutely no need to know anything about horses and riders. It is pure luck, but luck rarely disappoint you. You just have to select a horse and lay. Many times i selected top favorites, and none won! Now i stopped because i don;t have time and motivation to do such a job. I have my income, i am satisfied, no need to spend 4-5 hours every day to secure 50-100 euros profit. Good luck to Tsitsipas!

Hello guys.
Today im taking Otte 3.50 at Unibet.
I really like Otte on grass. His flat serve and FH really suits the game. He is almost flawness at grass right now. Only losing to Berretini and Medvedev, both in tight sets which is totally acceptable. Oscar is just having amazing grass court season. Alcaraz was struggling vs another big man and big hitter, Struff. For me Otte is class above a J.L. Struff. Reffering to Torque i feel like Alcaraz will most likely have to save break points than Otte. But I may be wrong, may I a little bit overhyped about Otte but for me its 50/50 maybe even slighty favored for a German. For me the big part of this 1.30 odds for Alcarez is his name, which for me its very wrong translate it for a grass versus this class of player (right now at the moment).
Sorry for my english, im not native.

Hello guys.
Today im taking Otte 3.50 at Unibet.
I really like Otte on grass. His flat serve and FH really suits the game. He is almost flawness at grass right now. Only losing to Berretini and Medvedev, both in tight sets which is totally acceptable. Oscar is just having amazing grass court season. Alcaraz was struggling vs another big man and big hitter, Struff. For me Otte is class above a J.L. Struff. Reffering to Torque i feel like Alcaraz will most likely have to save break points than Otte. But I may be wrong, may I a little bit overhyped about Otte but for me its 50/50 maybe even slighty favored for a German. For me the big part of this 1.30 odds for Alcarez is his name, which for me its very wrong translate it for a grass versus this class of player (right now at the moment).
Sorry for my english, im not native.

Hello guys.
Today im taking Otte 3.50 at Unibet.
I really like Otte on grass. His flat serve and FH really suits the game. He is almost flawness at grass right now. Only losing to Berretini and Medvedev, both in tight sets which is totally acceptable. Oscar is just having amazing grass court season. Alcaraz was struggling vs another big man and big hitter, Struff. For me Otte is class above a J.L. Struff. Reffering to Torque i feel like Alcaraz will most likely have to save break points than Otte. But I may be wrong, may I a little bit overhyped about Otte but for me its 50/50 maybe even slighty favored for a German. For me the big part of this 1.30 odds for Alcarez is his name, which for me its very wrong translate it for a grass versus this class of player (right now at the moment).
Sorry for my english, im not native.

It was looking like the recovery from yesterday's losses was on when Baez and Tomova won at the start of the day, but it was all downhill from there - with the exception of the four-fold which came in without too much drama. Auger-Aliassime lost to Cressy in four sets and in all honesty was a deserving loser. There's no doubt he's got plenty of talent, but there's definitely something missing between the ears. His key point performance today left a lot to be desired - he couldn't save the only break point he faced in the second set and then double-faulted to lose the third set tie-break. Some of that was to do with the pressure Cressy put him under by holding serve so easily - Cressy wasn't broken all match and only faced one break point - but there's more to it than that as his poor record in tournament finals shows.
My two dogs didn't even whimper let alone bark, with both players losing and putting up very little resistance. The end must be near for Lopez, who couldn't even get to a single tie-break and his serve was always his strong point on grass. Schwartzman gave Kozlov all the encouragement in the world and still ended up an easy winner and the 'Brit' double went down not because of Broady who won, but because of Evans who lost in straight sets as a strong favourite. The acca had a few losing legs but the one that really stood out for me as a bad selection with hindsight was Querrey. I shouldn't have gone anywhere near him as he's gone at the game and has been for some time. I thought this tournament would get his juices flowing but not a bit of it and losing to Berankis who is no fan of grass in straight sets is a really poor effort.

As always, good luck to everyone getting involved!
Mai Hontama to beat Clara Tauson at 2.60 with Unibet
Tauson didn't play any preparatory tournaments on grass, while Hontama had a good run in the qualifiers and is generally a tricky player to play against. A good friend of mine from the Czech Republic also saw her play in the qualifiers and said she was moving really well etc., so I suppose she's worth a shot at odds against. On ranking alone, Tauson would be an even bigger fav, so chances are that the bookies are sensing an upset here as well.
Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.64 with Unibet
Alcaraz is a big unknown on grass, and his performances in the exhibition events suggest that he might not even be fully fit. Struff has been pretty poor lately, too, but he tends to be decent against big names and his serve can do the job here on its own, too. I think he'll raise his game for the occasion, and I think that he'll be able to steal a set off Alcaraza way more often than not.
Martina Trevisan to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.62 with Unibet
Both players feel much better on clay, of course, but Trevisan had a great run in the French Open and she also actually played on grass, unlike Cocciaretto. Considering that I also rate her as the better player of the two overall, it all combines for a bet for me here.
Yanina Wickmayer to beat Lin Zhu 1.67 with Unibet
Zhu has been absolutely tragic recently, while Wickmayer seems energized after her comeback.
Dominik Koepfer to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Not confident at all about Galan's chances of grass, he didn't bother to prepare much by the looks of things. Koepfer isn't too impressive, either, but at least he's more proficient on hard courts etc.
Lorenzo Sonego to beat Denis Kudla at 1.86 with Pinnacle
Over the longer format, I much prefer Sonego's composure, even despite his recent loss against Kudla.

Just because it lost doesn't make it a bad bet 

As much as the first set didn't go to a breaker and the next two did, I'd say it's much more likely the first set goes to a breaker than subsequent sets. Once you get past the first set players can start to get affected by fatigue and start to make mistakes. Also you often see the player losing the first set on a breaker folding easily in the second due to the lesser chance of winning the match from a set down. I think you got value. The fact you didn't cash doesn't change that in my eyes. Place enough bets like that and you'll get ahead eventually.