Tennis Tips - July 25 - July 31

[CzechPunter]

Let's go!

[MinellaWorksop]

Plenty of tennis action this week, though I only found one bet of interest in the first round matchups and it is one of my hail Mary selections. That said here is the selection:

WTA Prague

Sinja Kraus 17.00

Prices Bet365

Last week, 7 bets, 4 wins, 1 retired injured leaving a profit of +4.87pts and a

Total P/L +2.17

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, strangely tricky card today.

[neilovan]

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 

Some bets I do like today

Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3

Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22

Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44

Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3

Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.

On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.

 

 

[neilovan]

Just watching the Jakupovic v van Uytvanck match. Is it so hot in Prague that van Uytvanck can't play?

[neilovan]

31 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Just watching the Jakupovic v van Uytvanck match. Is it so hot in Prague that van Uytvanck can't play?

and like clockwork the loser retires

Jakupovic, Dalila v Van Uytvanck, Alison

2-Way Odds (12) 12.57

Stake

Max. Payout

500.00

1270

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 

Some bets I do like today

Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3

Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22

Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44

Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3

Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.

On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.

 

 

If I had to take one big stake low priced bet I would put the money on Munar. He is playing well, went close against Ruud (7-6, 7-6) and played really well in that match. His game is developing nicely, and he does not give up!

 

Watching the Martincova game against Pacquet. Just insane. Martincova blitzes her 1st set and then goes from 3-1 up in the second to lose that 4-6   (or 1-5). Then starts the 3rd set like a snail. What is going on?

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Fognini worth a medium bet at odds around even money when leading 2nd set against Galan 3-1 30 love, one set down. At ATP Umag

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

54 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Fognini worth a medium bet at odds around even money when leading 2nd set against Galan 3-1 30 love, one set down. At ATP Umag

LOL, and on this weird day continues. Fognini has set point 7 times at 2-5, and can't take one of them. Then gives his serve away next game with two double faults. What a difficult day today. Unreal. Should be winning 3k but been bailing out of bets all day. Can Fognini break him to take the set 7-5? Last chance saloon here...  Just lucky as he does it on the 8th try. He should be dominant now, serving first. Hopefully Galan has a lot of emotion invested in that last one and falls away. If Fognini had gone to a breaker I would have eaten a 1/3 loss of stake. Just can't risk the tie-breaker.

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

Hopefully he takes the win. I'm in at 1.86

[neilovan]

 

8 minutes ago, Dax said:

Hopefully he takes the win. I'm in at 1.86

Just crazy, he needs to come out in the 3rd and hold his serve. Gives it away again. Just hideous play. I cant see the actually play but he loses endless points on the AD court. On the deuce side he wins, which suggests his backhand is crap or his patterns of play are crap.

Just the worst start possible to the 3rd set. Tempted to cut my losses here or give it half of this game, which he needs to win comfortably.

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

This match is a bit of a rollercoaster, to say the least

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, Dax said:

This match is a bit of a rollercoaster, to say the least

Just hideous. He cannot win 1 in 4 points on the AD side. Looking at this from behind my chair. 

Fognini is potentially  so dominant here, and he is just playing the big points so badly.  Munar also playing like a muppet. He was 2-0 up and he will be 5-2 down shortly.

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

Just now, neilovan said:

Just hideous. He cannot win 1 in 4 points on the AD side. Looking at this from behind my chair. 

Fognini is potentially  so dominant here, and he is just playing the big points so badly. 

Agree. He's been cursing all match long, I can clearly ear what he's saying

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, Dax said:

Agree. He's been cursing all match long, I can clearly ear what he's saying

He's had 15 break points.

I took the 1/3rd stake loss and bailed out. Too much money riding on this nonsense.

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

He just said "If I had learned to serve good I would be retired since 10 years" lol

[neilovan]

 

4 minutes ago, Dax said:

He just said "If I had learned to serve good I would be retired since 10 years" lol

Horrid day continues. Something totally wrong when you cannot win 3 in 10 points serving or receiving  on the AD side. Gotta get on the court and drill until your body is aching for a break. He has so much talent, but get's in his own way. That win would have had me even for the day, but between him and Mertens they both cooked my goose. And they were both great opportunities. Mertens was totally in control and went into left field, and Fognini , well, is just being Fognini. No disrespect,  but he should wipe the floor with this guy.

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

With this loss I will close minus 4 units

[neilovan]

5 minutes ago, Dax said:

With this loss I will close minus 4 units

I had a big darts bet yesterday on Gerwyn Price. We have load shedding where they switch the electricity off 3 times a day, and it screwed my internet. I couldn't connect and there is nobody there at 11pm. Cost me a nice wad so it's been brutal. The crazy part is that Fognini may even win this, but the manner of it makes comfortable betting impossible. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

8 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I had a big darts bet yesterday on Gerwyn Price. We have load shedding where they switch the electricity off 3 times a day, and it screwed my internet. I couldn't connect and there is nobody there at 11pm. Cost me a nice wad so it's been brutal. The crazy part is that Fognini may even win this, but the manner of it makes comfortable betting impossible. 

And that genius throws in a double to finish it off. Really poor to serve 9 doubles, when you have a marshmallow for a 1st serve. May as well slow the marshmallow down and get it in, remove all pressure from the 2nd serve and start form there. Useless display. Maybe Fognini can play some mixed doubles with Mertens? 

[Dax]

It's time for Fogna (which means sewer), as we call him, to retire

[Dax]

2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

And that genius throws in a double to finish it off. Really poor to serve 9 doubles, when you have a marshmallow for a 1st serve. May as well slow the marshmallow down and get it in, remove all pressure from the 2nd serve and start form there. Useless display. Maybe Fognini can play some mixed doubles with Mertens? 

they can definitely play together

[neilovan]

2 minutes ago, Dax said:

It's time for Fogna (which means sewer), as we call him, to retire

Really not sure why he keeps playing. Probably made 15+million in prize money. Between him and the wife, I am sure they will be OK financially. 

I'm gonna double down on Munar. Just not sure what happened to him in the first set, but he should really come back and beat Ymer, who is just such a limited grinder. 

[Dax]

1 minute ago, neilovan said:

Really not sure why he keeps playing. Probably made 15+million in prize money. Between him and the wife, I am sure they will be OK financially.

They really are! Anyway, he's set to retire shortly, as he said last week

[CzechPunter]

Quite like Salkova to beat In-Albon at 2.70 with Unibet, purely on form and home conditions. In-Albon hasn't won a match in ages, while Salkova had two good wins in the qualifiers against solid opposition. Can see her going one step further.

[neilovan]

I was messing around looking at comparing different betting sites, and the odds they are giving. My local(SA) site is garbage pre match. They give really bad pre match odds. I looked at BETWAY and BET365 as well. So here is the interesting part.  Your local site will sometimes give you lousy pre match odds! Prior to the begin of the match, they can do whatever they like to you. But a bigger site can't do that. They have to have 1 price for a global audience, so they can't manipulate it pre match. 

As soon as the match starts most of the numbers (across sites) are very similar. So, when you get a lousy price locally, you have to wait for the match to begin, and then take your bet, as at this point the prices will align.

Simple example . Locally I could (but won't) take Sonego to win. My local price is 1.38, bet365 is 1.44. If I take it pre match I'm getting a difference of 13.7%. In play the numbers line up. So a way around a bad pre match price (on local site) is to wait for the match to begin and then bet.

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Taking a small/medium bet on Pedro Martinez to beat Jarry. Even money 6-6 first set at beginning of breaker. Martinez technically far better, and Jarry's serve will go off at some stage.

[neilovan]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Quite like Salkova to beat In-Albon at 2.70 with Unibet, purely on form and home conditions. In-Albon hasn't won a match in ages, while Salkova had two good wins in the qualifiers against solid opposition. Can see her going one step further.

Great call. In-Albon has terrible serving numbers, and hopefully gets broken multiple more times.

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Quite liking the price on Cirstea to beat Seleckhmeteva. SHe is down 5-4 1st set and is 1.8 to win. . Definitely worth a small/medium bet as she is seeded 4th aganst a qualifier. Normally qualifiers start faster and then get overrun by the better player, as that player finds their feet

[neilovan]

5 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Quite liking the price on Cirstea to beat Seleckhmeteva. SHe is down 5-4 1st set and is 1.8 to win. . Definitely worth a small/medium bet as she is seeded 4th aganst a qualifier. Normally qualifiers start faster and then get overrun by the better player, as that player finds their feet

I also think that Anna  Bondar is a gift price at 1.22 against Kristina Mladenovic. For me an absolute no -contest.

Would go for Bondar -5.5 at odds of 1.7

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan