Tennis Tips - July 25 - July 31

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Quite liking the price on Cirstea to beat Seleckhmeteva. SHe is down 5-4 1st set and is 1.8 to win. . Definitely worth a small/medium bet as she is seeded 4th aganst a qualifier. Normally qualifiers start faster and then get overrun by the better player, as that player finds their feet

I didn't have a big bet here, but how on earth is it possible for someone ranked 45 to lose so badly to somebody ranked 170+ in the world. 

Cirstea just served like a beginner. Sometimes you wonder if the 'fix' is on in these matches.

3 matches in a row Mertens, Fognini and now Cirstea where the vastly superior ranked player just plays like the long shot after winning the 2nd set. All the momentum is on their side and they just don't show up 3rd set. Bizarre.

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Krejcikova v Blinkova

Krejcikova has a game that beats lower ranked players. As a fav in the last 3 years on hard court she has played 21 players ranked 65 or lower and has won 20 matches. She may start slow here, but the -5.5 handicap is probably the way to go. I just went straight win at about 1.26

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Krejcikova v Blinkova

Krejcikova has a game that beats lower ranked players. As a fav in the last 3 years on hard court she has played 21 players ranked 65 or lower and has won 20 matches. She may start slow here, but the -5.5 handicap is probably the way to go. I just went straight win at about 1.26

And a really easy win for Krejcikova, who didn't play particularly well. 

Do you want to back somebody for small stakes, and relatively big odds when the outcome is such an unknown? For me it is a definite NO. I would rather be lumping it on a vastly superior player, at much lower stakes, knowing that the game is probably going to be a one-way steam roller. That was a train smash for Blinkova, realistically losing 6-1 6-1 with zero chance of winning. Happy to put 50 units on a game like that, with a 10 unit profit.

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Brooksby v. Paire.

Brooksby just has such superior numbers to Paire. The biggest weakness in Paire's game (mental), is his serving. On average he is serving close to 7.5 double faults a match ... and that is almost all Brooksby needs to win comfortably here (Brooksby a very good server serves around 1 double per match). Brooksby has far superior serving stats. The only tricky part of taking the -3.5 handicap is if Paire can keep it close for one set and lose 6-7 (brooksby will win here). That could cost you a bet.

I can get brooksby -3.5 at 1.35 which looks decent to me.

[neilovan]

any ideas on Ofner and Gasquet?

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, neilovan said:

any ideas on Ofner and Gasquet?

Leave well alone would be my suggestion.

[CzechPunter]

Salkova won quite easily, but I don't like her chances against Bouzkova, of course. Krejcikova to beat Hibino at 1.16 with Pinnacle is quite short, but shouldn't go awry, really.

[Dax]

Sock is doing well today

[neilovan]

25 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Salkova won quite easily, but I don't like her chances against Bouzkova, of course. Krejcikova to beat Hibino at 1.16 with Pinnacle is quite short, but shouldn't go awry, really.

Salkova was actually holding on at the end. Was up easily in the second and then had a battle to close it out. Her opponent was getting better each game played. 3 sets I think she loses.

I think that Krejcikova wins tomorrow. I do like the 2:0 in sets which is priced at 1.4. Lets you win the same as the 1.16 bet but you can risk 2.5 times less to return the same. I think she will play much better ... there were 4 breaks of serve to start today's match

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

13 minutes ago, Dax said:

Sock is doing well today

45 minutes ?

[Dax]

Embarrassing

[Dax]

Could Musetti lose the first set? The price is tempting

[neilovan]

Just another crazy day. Djere should be walking all over Agamenone. He was 5-1 up in the 1st set tie breaker and managed to lose it.

He is winning his serve games easily and dominating the big Argentinian. He has the momentum and really should go on and win this match.  I look at his serving stats and he is right on his numbers. He is playing OK.

 

Round of 32·Court 1

Live

 

		F. Agamenone	710	2	0	0
		L. Đere	68	6	0	0

	FrancoAgamenone LasloĐere

1	Aces	3
1	Double faults	4
61%	First serve %	69%
64%	Win % on 1st serve	69%
48%	Win % on 2nd serve	56%
2/4	Break points	4/9
1	Tiebreaks won	0
27	Receiving points won	31
68	Points won	74
9	Games won	12
4	Max games won in a row	3
7	Max points won in a row	5
41	Service points won	43
6	Service games won	8

 

Should be a one sided 3rd set at decent odds of 1.25 for him to win

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Just another crazy day. Djere should be walking all over Agamenone. He was 5-1 up in the 1st set tie breaker and managed to lose it.

He is winning his serve games easily and dominating the big Argentinian. He has the momentum and really should go on and win this match.  I look at his serving stats and he is right on his numbers. He is playing OK.

 

Round of 32·Court 1

Live

 

		F. Agamenone	710	2	0	0
		L. Đere	68	6	0	0

	FrancoAgamenone LasloĐere

1	Aces	3
1	Double faults	4
61%	First serve %	69%
64%	Win % on 1st serve	69%
48%	Win % on 2nd serve	56%
2/4	Break points	4/9
1	Tiebreaks won	0
27	Receiving points won	31
68	Points won	74
9	Games won	12
4	Max games won in a row	3
7	Max points won in a row	5
41	Service points won	43
6	Service games won	8

 

Should be a one sided 3rd set at decent odds of 1.25 for him to win

How can someone make such heavy weather of beating this journeyman? Is it the courts? What is causing good players to play so badly?

Djere is 5-1 in the 1st set breaker,. Messes it up

In the 3rd set he is 2-0 up, then gives away 3 games. Then does it again.  Lost his serve 3 times in the 3rd set against a person that is ranked 100 places below him on clay?  WHATS going on here, because these results are insane!

In the first 2 sets he gives up 6 break points and in the last 3 games he gives up 7? 

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Just bizarre stuff.

Fognini, Mertens, Cirstea, and now Djere all playing weak opponents. All win the 2nd set, and not one of them can close the deal. And it is not like the opponent is any good (relatively).

Fognini v Galan (rank 99)

Cirstea v Selekhmeteva (rank 177)

Djere v Agamenone (rank 136)  

Mertens v Linette (rank 68)

And the 4 longshot, no hope outsiders just pour on the gas and win going away  If these types of matches don't win, what chance of winning do you have taking matches at odds of 1.8+ ?

Edited July 26, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

14 hours ago, neilovan said:

Salkova was actually holding on at the end. Was up easily in the second and then had a battle to close it out. Her opponent was getting better each game played. 3 sets I think she loses.

I think that Krejcikova wins tomorrow. I do like the 2:0 in sets which is priced at 1.4. Lets you win the same as the 1.16 bet but you can risk 2.5 times less to return the same. I think she will play much better ... there were 4 breaks of serve to start today's match

The more I think about this the less I like my 2:0 sets idea. My feeling is that Krekcikova will win this match. The only possible blip is that she has 1 bad set and blows the bet up. I think I would rather wage 2.5 times more, and give myself the freedom to avoid this scenario.

[neilovan]

I am not a fan of Karatsev. Think he is /has been found out. He is playing with pressure and frustration. He also comes off a really weird strange performance to F Cerundolo last week. He could be well beaten today by Dusan Lajovic, who is solid, and in good form. The price on Lajovic is too good to pass up, because Karatsev is vulnerable here.

Not betting on another match at ATP umag. Something just atypical there.

Taking 2 bets today. A double of Thiem and Lajovic to win (2 units) and another double of Bautista Agut and Nadia Podoroska both to win (4 units). 

Much to do today, so good luck with your picks.

[DrO]

The thing with Djere is his menthal issues of the game. He now owns a bizarre record losing 18 straight tie-breaks..and that tells a lot..

[neilovan]

Its like the tennis gods are just telling me to stop betting. 

How is it even remotely possible that Mlandenovic can serve 21 double faults and still compete. The rain delay really helped her.

Bondar had 7 match points, and could not take one. I didn't see the match but she must have been atrocious. AT one point in this match she was 1.6 to 10.

This match was just a case of BAD versus WORSE.   

Just beyond belief.

	KristinaMladenovic AnnaBondár

1	Aces	1
21	Double faults	3
60%	First serve %	55%
59%	Win % on 1st serve	73%
72%	Win % on 2nd serve	44%
5/5	Break points	7/19
1	Tiebreaks won	0
36	Receiving points won	60
100	Points won	110

The stats are so crazy. 

Her opponent wins 10 receiving points for every 6 she wins, yet somehow she wins...

 

 

Edited July 27, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, neilovan said:

I am not a fan of Karatsev. Think he is /has been found out. He is playing with pressure and frustration. He also comes off a really weird strange performance to F Cerundolo last week. He could be well beaten today by Dusan Lajovic, who is solid, and in good form. The price on Lajovic is too good to pass up, because Karatsev is vulnerable here.

Not betting on another match at ATP umag. Something just atypical there.

Taking 2 bets today. A double of Thiem and Lajovic to win (2 units) and another double of Bautista Agut and Nadia Podoroska both to win (4 units). 

Much to do today, so good luck with your picks.

Impressive stuff. Podoroska just lost 8 games in a row after winning the 1st set 6-3. What odds on that ?

 

[lelit]

This thread should be called Neil's blog

Thread, where the author lists the names of tennis players who have unexpectedly failed him and there are recently, plenty of them ?

[four-leaf]

On 7/26/2022 at 2:35 PM, neilovan said:

I didn't have a big bet here, but how on earth is it possible for someone ranked 45 to lose so badly to somebody ranked 170+ in the world. 

Cirstea just served like a beginner. Sometimes you wonder if the 'fix' is on in these matches.

3 matches in a row Mertens, Fognini and now Cirstea where the vastly superior ranked player just plays like the long shot after winning the 2nd set. All the momentum is on their side and they just don't show up 3rd set. Bizarre.

Has it ever occured to you that someone ranked 170 doesn't say much about what player it is? She might be someone soon to be top 100. You don't know that.

Btw I think you are playing some kind of guessing game here on the forum and don't really know what's gonna happen. Lack of insight.

Edit: Try watching more tennis or specific players before u make your educated guesses.

Edited July 27, 2022 by four-leaf

[neilovan]

29 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Has it ever occured to you that someone ranked 170 doesn't say much about what player it is? She might be someone soon to be top 100. You don't know that.

Btw I think you are playing some kind of guessing game here on the forum and don't really know what's gonna happen. Lack of insight.

Edit: Try watching more tennis or specific players before u make your educated guesses.

No, I disagree with you. The majority of your decision should be based on the experienced professional, who didn't get to be highly ranked by fluke..

A player ranked 175 is there for a reason, and you can't really base the majority of your decision on a rank outsider. The top players should win from these situations ... that's why they are top players. Where exactly are you going to watch #177  Selekhmeteva  playing? They don't have ITF and woman's low level on TV here ( or in most other countries as well).

As for "knowing what is going to happen", I am just applying what I believe is a best "guess" based on my knowledge of the game, and looking at stats. If you have a source of 100% accuracy please let me know.

Edited July 27, 2022 by neilovan

[lelit]

Big surprises? This happens every year at the WTA tournaments in Europe just before the season in America. As a rule, a lot of WTA players do not pay much attention to these tournaments.

Every experienced tipster knows it.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

No, I disagree with you. The majority of your decision should be based on the experienced professional, who didn't get to be highly ranked by fluke..

A player ranked 175 is there for a reason, and you can't really base the majority of your decision on a rank outsider. The top players should win from these situations ... that's why they are top players. Where exactly are you going to watch #177  Selekhmeteva  playing? They don't have ITF and woman's low level on TV here ( or in most other countries as well).

As for "knowing what is going to happen", I am just applying what I believe is a best "guess" based on my knowledge of the game, and looking at stats. If you have a source of 100% accuracy please let me know.

You can watch these ITF events on itftennis.com if you manage to navigate your way to the livestreams. And btw Selekhmeteva was on live display in WTA as late as last week facing Sara Errani.

[neilovan]

3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

You can watch these ITF events on itftennis.com if you manage to navigate your way to the livestreams. And btw Selekhmeteva was on live display in WTA as late as last week facing Sara Errani.

Unfortunately not blessed with your tennis TV options here. No live TV coverage this week

Edited July 27, 2022 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

@neilovan and had you even seen Selehmeteva playing before this week which you could have done also in Roland Garros 2022 round of 128 you would have known she's 19 years old and a promising prospect.

[neilovan]

Just now, four-leaf said:

@neilovan and had you even seen Selehmeteva playing before this week which you could have done also in Roland Garros 2022 round of 128 you would have known she's 19 years old and a promising prospect.

I was in USA, they don't cover non American's there. 

[four-leaf]

3 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I was in USA, they don't cover non American's there. 

So you say that in USA you can't find a livestream online somewhere to watch a match? Doesn't internet work the same everywhere except if you're in Russia/China/North Korea?

[neilovan]

Just now, four-leaf said:

So you say that in USA you can't find a livestream online somewhere to watch a match? Doesn't internet work the same everywhere except if you're in Russia/China/North Korea?

I didn't know about the livestreams, and I was on holiday, Hardly going to spend my time watching ITF tennis while on vacation...