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Tennis Tips - July 18 - July 24


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Looks like hard to predict tourneys for the men as some top players are entered.Have to give it a good once over.

 

Coric had a good run on the dirt recently in a challenger.I wonder if hes ready to make a run here..

Hamburg..Oh guys! Sabine Lisicki alert! Made it into the main draw.Honestly I still think shes still never recovered from that loss to bartoli..been a long way back for her.Hope she does well this week..Good win in qualies today though..That might build some confidence getting it done the hard way and not on a wildcard..

 

 

 

 

 

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Round One outsider selections, based on a mixture of feelings, stats and reading match preview write ups:

ATP Hamburg

Emil Ruusuvuori 2.75

WTA Palermo

Ana Bogdan 2.62

Jaimee Fourlis 4.33

Prices Bet365

Last week, 1 winner out of 5 selections with Krunic winning.

P/L -2.70

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So finally back from the USA.

Quite strange to watch Wimbledon and the French Open from there, with the time difference. 

For me , Lajovic should be well beaten by Musetti in Hamburg. Musetti just too good on clay, while Lajovic has lost 10 of his last 12 clay court matches.  Will take it onto two low priced favorites.  Molcan to beat Topo and Krecikova to beat Lamens.  The 3 legged parlay should give about 12 to 10 which is a decent medium staked bet for me.

 

In play I do like Peterson who is a set and a break up and is 1.7 to 10.

Edited by neilovan
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19 minutes ago, Torque said:

Nice to see you again @neilovan

Gotta say that JHB is a bit chilly, when compared to the Northern hemisphere at this time (16c), but it is good to be home. Life is far from terrible here! Between the jet lag and them eating too much in America, and I do feel slightly toxic. Will take a week for the body to adjust. 

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Just looking at the ATP hamburg. Kovalik was a 16 to 100 favorite and seems to be finding his feet at the backend of the 2nd set against a wildcard, Hans Rehberg. Now at 1.36 I think he is a decent bet, even though if he wins the 2nd set (serves out now) he won't be serving 1st in the 3rd, but he should have too much experience.

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I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.

Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.

I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 

Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

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3 hours ago, neilovan said:

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.

Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.

I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 

Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

Lol,  has hardly played on 'clay'

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For tomorrow, I like two underdogs in Stricker to beat Ramos at 3.04 with Pinnacle and Parry to beat Putintseva at 3.41 with Pinnacle. Stricker always plays well at home, while Parry looked good against Davis in the previous round. Not favorites by any stretch, but the odds look too high to me.

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Been an interesting year on the ATP as players like Philip Kolschrieber, Kevin Anderson, Lopez, Sam Querry, Fognini fade away.

Their places open up new spots for the likes of Rune, Cerundolo (F), Baez, Cressy, Molcan, Lehecka, Halys , Hueslar etc . It's nice to see some new and very talented players break through.

For me Fognini is on the downslope out of the top 100. Still may take another year or so, but it gets harder as the ranking fades and you meet better players, earlier in tournaments. A matchup against Khachanov is just tough. Khachanov ranked at 26 and Fognini at 61, with Khachanov having almost double Fognini's points.

And the stats don't lie. Fognini has lost 6 of his last 8 clay court matches. He got into main draw of Swedish open as lucky loser, and lost to Baez in straights. His two wins were against Popyrin (102) and Thiem (162).  A relatively comfortable win for Khachanov here.

 

I think the Rublev match against Franscisco Cerundolo is going to be excellent. No doubt the match of the round. A very similar matchup of styles, with Cerundolo coming into it, full of confidence after last weeks tournament win. It was no fluke for him last week. He has a rock solid, terrific backhand, and I think Rublev has all kinds of problems with him today. I would be backing Cerundolo to cover the games spread of +3.5 (odds 1.72) and maybe a small bet on him to win the match.

 

Dominic Thiem v Frederico Delbonis. Quite impressed with Theim who is still on the comback trail. He had two very good wins (Bautista Agut, Ruusuvouri) at the Nordic open before losing to Baez in the quarters.  All three matches were 3 setters, which would have been an excellent test for his recovering injury. My software is undecided on this game, but I think Thiem wins here. Happy to take the straight win.

 

I think there is some value in going for a couple of low priced favorites. I think the Ruud v Lehecka match (1.2) and the Berrettini v Gasquet (1.25)  can only end one way. Will take Ruud and Berrittini  as a double which will give 5 to 10, onto Putintseva to beat Parry (WTA Palermo). Putintseva too good on clay and should be comfortable there. Parry did beat Krejcikova at the French but Babora was injured, so I am discounting that win. She has no clay court form at all. I think @CzechPunter is on a sticky wicket here :).

As a treble this comes out at even money

Edited by neilovan
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On 7/20/2022 at 10:14 AM, neilovan said:

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.

Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.

I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 

Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

Both upsets from yesterday came through 😬. Nice to hit the winning groove !

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Both upsets from yesterday came through 😬. Nice to hit the winning groove !

Nice odds on Varillas and Molcan, especially considering Bautista Agut and Carreno Busta are out of fitness or form.

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8 minutes ago, Torque said:

Nice odds on Varillas and Molcan, especially considering Bautista Agut and Carreno Busta are out of fitness or form.

The Busta match was on TV here, and he really should have won it. Played so badly on the big points, but it must have been as hot as hell there. But there is so little between the a player ranked 15 and one ranked 85. Just a little luck, good energy and a positive mindset, or someone having a slight off day. Been picking up a lot of good in play bets. 

My feeling is that clay is probably the most accurate surface to predict on. Grass is the trickiest, and then it is not easy to differentiate between indoor and outdoor hard court.

 

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2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

The Busta match was on TV here, and he really should have won it. Played so badly on the big points, but it must have been as hot as hell there. But there is so little between the a player ranked 15 and one ranked 85. Just a little luck, good energy and a positive mindset, or someone having a slight off day. Been picking up a lot of good in play bets. 

My feeling is that clay is probably the most accurate surface to predict on. Grass is the trickiest, and then it is not easy to differentiate between indoor and outdoor hard court.

 

It's becoming a bit of a theme for Carreno Busta to play big points badly. He's been poor all season from what I've seen and has lost a succession of matches due to playing key points poorly, the worst of which was against Simon at the French. That really was a dismal performance.

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Watching the Cerundolo v Rublev match. Definitely worth an in play bet on Cerundolo. Right back in the match at more than decent odds. Took it onto Putintseva at decent odds of 1422 to 300. He has a dynamite backhand ... the ball sounds so good off the racquet semi-indoors.

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