Point the way

Hi All,
Around 2 months ago I started spending more time betting on horse racing alongside my job. I use the Geegeez site for the majority of my race research alongside replays if I feel the picture is unclear from the in race comments. I also try to watch back all the races I've bet in to build up a "bank" of knowledge around horses to make the research stage quicker.
My strategy is as follows (very similar for flat or jumps):
Assess the likely pace (&Draw) set up of the race and compare that to the course set up to see which horses may have the race run to suit. Quickly review the data around how a horse has performed under these conditions before (this is a specific tab on the Geegeez website). To do this I adjust the going based on the weather forecast. Once I have these factors I go down each horse individually and build a picture of its profile (which conditions it runs well in, handicap mark, any reasons to mark up recent performances) and then try to assign a price to this. I also add a comment to summarise its profile (this comment is visible for future races) Whilst going down the list of horses I try to compare horses chances against each other to get them in the right "order" of the betting. I currently try to price all races to either 0% of at most 0.5% per runner. E.g. for a 10 runner race I won't price up to more than 105%, sometimes I have to adjust my prices after my first attempt for get within this margin. When the prices come out, I compare mine to the market. My view is because I bet to a lower % than the book will, if I make something a bigger price, there is a fair chance it is worth betting. However, I only bet it if I can see an argument for it winning, e.g. if I've made a horse 8/1 and the books go 12/1, but I don't fancy it, I may not bet it. (this suggests to me I have got my prices wrong). If my price is bigger and I can see an argument for it winning then I will bet it. My bets tend to be 8/1 + but sometimes I bet favs if I think they should be shorter. Staking- my stake is mostly dependent on how far out the bookies are compared to me, e.g. Last night I made a horse 4/1 and it was put in at 10's so this was a max bet, however there was also a horse at 10s that I had as a 7's chance so this was a smaller bet. The only other factor for staking is if I really fancy a horse to win I may bet bigger even if the margin isn't as big. Results- In September I made 5% ROI, so far in October I'm at 88% ROI. I'm also fairly consistently beating SP, although hard to say how good that is given the low margin I bet to.
Any thoughts or improvements on the above would be appreciated, I also had the following questions:
Should I be betting to such a low margin? How long is long enough to show that I'm profitable and it's not just variance? My stakes are lower than they could be but don't want to up them too early. Do others use multiples? If so, whats the best way of using these? Im getting a few accounts closed, is there anyway way around this apart from friends/family accounts? Thanks in advance for any help/advice.

Cheltenham is back, and plenty of interesting races. Surprised Danny Kirwan has drifted in the 3:40 (5/1), solid hurdles form and looks a real chasing type. Nice racing weight with 10-11 and getting weight from the principals. Faivoir and Annual Invictictis should be close to each other on their Uttoxeter run, main danger for me is Back on the Lash who jumps well and might force the pace as he stays further.
 
Might have been closer but for some shocking jumps 

It is here. Britain's strongest juvenile hurdle ran to date this season is finally amongst us! Make sure you're prepared for this momentous occasion by reading an excruciatingly comprehensive guide to the race
Market Rasen's juvenile hurdle on the 'Prelude' card was a selling race in 2003. That contest was won by Quick who was bought in for 3,600 guineas ahead of a career which saw him place at the Cheltenham festival. With the exception of 2005, it has since been a Class 2 contest and carries a very respectable roll call that would warrant a title along the lines of the Triumph Hurdle of the Summer. Indeed, 2006 winner Katchit would follow up in the real deal at Cheltenham later that season while Franchoek, second in 2007, and Barizan, winner in 2009, would each finish second in the Festival showpiece. Recent years have been comparatively barren with the latest graduate to reach the front five in the Triumph being 2015 winner Leoncavallo. Nevertheless, the likes of Fox Norton, Cliffs of Dover and Talking About You have emerged from this race to collect pattern races during the same season. This year's renewal looks representative with the field headed by a pair who are each unbeaten in two starts and have some of the strongest form in the division seen to date. Strength is further bolstered by a couple of likely improvers who were placed on their sole starts, and potentially a winning Irish raider. Set in the town where one of the first purpose-built combined fire and police stations in the UK was built, Market Rasen is a fairly tight, right handed circuit with minor undulations. Favouring sharper sorts, its average winners' DIs of 1.31 median, 1.70 mean, are some of the highest in the country and while they drop for this particular contest, this would be more due to class than any real stamina requirements. The clear round rate of 95.74% is fractionally below the national average although it does see more juveniles pull up than standard. Odds-on shots at the course have a 51.22% strike rate but while their record in this contest reads as three losers from as many runners, those with multiple previous wins take more than their fair share of renewals. The ground is currently riding as good and is being watered to maintained. Little to no rain is forecast before post time. 
Caramelised bc Alan King f4-0-0 (73) 75 j2-2-0 (-) 116 120
Dansili (Cozzene){9-e}(1.67) 2/2 Lord Condi 1st 2m1½f Novices' Hurdle, Plumpton 2018
On top of being the winningmost trainer of juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, Alan King has a winner to runner rate of 48.61% and an overall strike rate of 23.39%. His record in this particular contest is also noteworthy as his fourteen runners have yielded three wins (Silencio, Katchit and City Dreamer) and four places including Franchoek and Cracker Factory. This year, he is represented by a Caramelised who has had the race as a target since completing a course and distance double at Stratford five weeks ago. A four race maiden for Richard Hannon, he had finished nearer last than first on each outing and had shown himself a free running sort. Nevertheless, his rating of 73 is well above average for the time of year and is also the highest brought into this contest. Concerns over an inability to settle manifested on his hurdling debut in late July as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent, and the form of the race was boosted when a month later when the runner-up, Fred Bear, landed division one of Caramelised's most recent outing half an hour before he faced the starter himself. Backed as though defeat was out of the question, he went from 4/7 to 4/9 in the ring, causing all his rivals to be squeezed out by his market share. Initially tucked in just behind the leaders, he settled better than he had first time around and though he was lit up after the third, Tom Cannon regained the bit by the time they reached the hill second time; which is also where Caramelised moved stylishly into the lead. Shaken up ever so gently on the turn for home, he entered the straight with an advantage of half-a-dozen lengths and, without any impetus from the rider, that gap was extended to thrice the amount at the line. Apart from getting slightly big at the first and maybe brushing the top of two out, Caramelised put in an exhibition round of jumping that would not have looked out of place during a veteran hurdler's schooling session. Furthermore, the fact that he completed the run-in in a faster time than the previous race while on the bridle shows that he has a tremendous amount of speed for the division. His tendency to race freely might become a concern when the stiffer competition emerges, but he was still better than first time out, which is encouraging given that he is still an entire. The Lincolnshire showpiece was earmarked immediately afterwards and five weeks later, he comes into the contest setting a standard which is the best part of stone ahead of what his rivals have achieved over hurdles. Caramelised's profile is not entirely bombproof however as the yard has gone a fortnight without a winner; although he has not saddled any short priced flops during the period. Furthermore, while he has not gone right handed over hurdles, 41.67% of Dansili's juveniles at Market Rasen have either won or reached the frame. On all known information, Caramelised's exploits and profile give him a healthy cushion over his opponents. Nevertheless, his trainer's recent form can not be completely ignored and as all of the potential challengers have been off the track for at least a month, it is not impossible for one or two of them to have improved in the meantime. 
Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j2-2-0 (113) 98 109 
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yC), Compiegne 2021
An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, although his best result from three runners in this contest came when Breakfast finished third in the 2018 running. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow in late July as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. The form has since been boosted with Keepyourdreamsbig winning at Worcester next time out. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. He made his second appearance five weeks later at Cartmel and he set the standard over his three rivals. A solid, long odds-on favourite, Sacre Pierre initially tucked in behind the leaders before going to the front entering the wood side second time round. His early jumping lacked fluency as he was steady and close at the first two before clipping the fourth. However, he soon remembered his job at the halfway stage and was neat over the next three. Though he was briefly and narrowly headed leaving the back, Sacre Pierre soon found another gear to see off his challenger. He did wander quite erratically on the approach to the last, but this was much more likely due to a lapse in concentration than any temperament concerns as he was smooth around all of the other turns, and ran true along the run-in. Beyond his being in good shape and confirming the promise of his debut, not much more was learned from that outing. The form was nothing special, but he is capable of jumping well and is not short of an engine. Still very much unexposed with his yard in reasonable form, it will be interesting to see how he handles this step up in class; even if his bare form leaves him with a bit to find. 
Whyzzat bg Denis Gerard Hogan f15-0-3 (56) 74 j2-1-0 (-) 109 105 
Dark Angel (Desert Prince){7-a}(3.00) 2/1 Under Oath 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Down Royal 2005
Costing 160,000 guineas as a yearling, Whyzzat failed to face the starter for George Scott and was sold to current connections for 9,000 guineas at last year's Tattersalls July Sale. While he reached the frame on three occasions, he failed to win during his sixteen race flat career, including in claiming company. Though initially rated 75 after his first three outings as a two-year-old, he went into his Roscommon debut with a rating of 58. Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest winner to runner rate of 12.24%, but he also has a strong clear round rate of 98.36% and none of his juveniles have fallen or unseated first time out. Accordingly, Whyzzat posted a good and consistent round of jumping first time with his only flaw coming at the last where he was very slightly steady and clipped the top of the flight. Prominent from the outset, he tucked in behind the leaders and travelling strongly, jumped into a share of the lead at three out. Ridden into a lead of a length after the penultimate flight, he opened the gap to the best part of four lengths which he would maintain to the line. Seemingly exposed on the flat, he showed some aptitude for this game and probably ran close to his flat best first time out. He next appeared at Down Royal towards the end of August and while his Roscommon form was not tremendous, it was solid enough to give him a live chance. However, his trainer had been going through a lean patch and there was little confidence in the market as he drifted from 9/2 in the morning to 11/1 at the off. He had jumped well on his hurdling debut and there was no cause for complaint in his round here either as he took each flight without mishap. Nor was there anything wrong with the way he travelled as he settled well just behind the leaders and was always close enough if good enough. While improvement between first and second outings would generally be a given, it would be an exaggeration to describe this as a flop as he was only a few pounds below his Roscommon performance and the form was substantiated by Bell Ex One and Realist at Listowel last Sunday. Trainer form might be the most plausible explanation although it could also be that he was feeling the effects of having his thirteenth race of the year. Declared to participate in a Dundalk handicap on the eve of this race, this outing could either set him right for Market Rasen, or leave him fatigued for the long journey to Lincolnshire. The yard is still out of form but Hogan's sole runner at Market Rasen has been a winner and Paddy Brennan has been booked for the ride. Whyzzat's form leaves him with a bit to find with a couple of his prospective rivals, but he would not be ruled out entirely should he face the starter.
Crane bg Nicky Henderson f6-1-1 (72) 77 j2-0-1 (-) 73 70
Oasis Dream (Pivotal){6-e}(1.82) 3/2 Little Green 1st Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Winning on the flat as a two-year-old for Michael Bell, Crane joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for a new hurdling career which began at Stratford in late July. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his being by Oasis Dream did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. Crane returned to Stratford a month later and he was not fancied to attain immediate absolution. His jumping was better second time round as while he was steady, close and untidy at the first here, he hurdled more fluently from thereon, making only minor errors occasionally. Keen in the early stages, he went to the front from flagfall but eventually managed to settle better when an even more headstrong animal gave him a lead. Crane briefly moved back to the front climbing the hill but was easily brushed aside in a matter of strides by the winner. The runner-up also had his measure quite comfortably but Crane was able to win the battle for third from a very tired rival. While losing ground on Caramelised between their outings, Crane did improve by a few pounds from his hurdling debut. However, he is still a long way from his two-year-old efforts and though the in-form Nicky Henderson won this race with sole runner Royal Irish Hussar in 2013, Crane will need to have improved very dramatically over the past thirty-three days to be competitive here. 
Scots Gold grg Dan Skelton f6-0-0 (66) 70 j1-0-1 (-) 98 103
Dark Angel (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(1.40) 3/2 Major Drive 1st 2m5f Handicap Hurdle (106), Sedgefield 2004
For four out of the past six seasons, Dan Skelton has had a strike rate in the division exceeding 20% and is already off the mark this term with Knotty Ash scoring at this track back in June. That horse disappointed next time so the master of Lodge Hill will be represented by Scots Gold. Despite failing to place in six starts for Tom Dascombe (whose former inmates have a solid record), Scots Gold was not entirely disgraced on the flat and the form of his penultimate outing at Nottingham, in which he only narrowly failed to reach third at the post has worked out well. Making his hurdles bow at Stratford in Fred Bear's contest, he started the day as favourite. However, with his yard out of form at the time, he would drift from a morning 7/4 to 3/1 at the off. Settled in mid-division and some way off the pace, he made steady headway along the back before coming under a drive going over the hill. While he managed to get to within a few lengths of Fred Bear approaching the home turn, and was able to outlast the long time pursuer, he was unable to make further inroads on the winner along the straight. He still had upwards of ten lengths over his remaining rivals, headed by the useful looking Aliomaana, and his jumping was good for a debutant; his only errors being a bit late at the fourth, which he still negotiated well, and getting slightly slightly close at three out. It was a likeable debut with a performance close to his flat best and Scots Gold could very well improve for the experience. He would be of greater interest were the yard known to be in form. However, Dan Skelton has not saddled a single runner for three weeks so the only clues in that regard are carried by Dazzling Glory in tomorrow's opener.
Stigwood bg Alex Hales f8-0-1 (52) 66
Kodiac (Sadler's Wells){22-a}(1.20) Allow Me 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Catterick 2012
The only hurdling debutant in the line-up, Stigwood ended an eight race flat spell for Eve Johnson Houghton with a solitary placing and a rating of 52. He joined Alex Hales, whose winner to runner rate in the sphere stands at 12.50%, for 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Sire Kodiac has a strong winner to runner rate of 39.29% and half-brother Allow Me was a fairly useful handicap hurdler. Alex Hales sent the 57 rated Hiconic to win first time out last season before finishing second in this contest. However, Stigwood already has the lowest flat rating without having to contend with his lack of experience which would be crucial in a race of this nature. 
Von Melas bg Michael Easterby f4-0-1 (61) 53 j1-0-0 (-) 55 49
Battle Of Marengo (Rock Of Gibraltar){16-c}(0.82) 2/1 Karawaan 2nd 2m Handicap Hurdle (106), Tipperary 2021
Initially rated 64 after three spins on the flat, Von Melas only hinted at that type of mark when plugging on to finish a fourteen length third in a ten furlong novice stakes at Nottingham in early August. He was last seen at Ayr nine days ago where that mark continued to look stiff and he has since been dropped to 61. Prior to his Ayr outing, Von Melas made his hurdling debut at Stratford behind Caramelised thirty-three days ago. He is feasibly bred to do better over hurdles as Battle Of Marengo has had three winning juveniles from nine, and while Rock Of Gibraltar is not as strong a damsire as sire, uncle Karawaan has managed to place over hurdles. However, his pedigree saw him start no shorter than 50/1 and racing keenly in the rear, his hurdling lacked fluency and he merely passed beaten horses towards the end. Though Von Melas is relatively unexposed and his yard's juveniles typically improve with experience, he has yet to show he can be remotely competitive in this kind of company
Addosh bf Stuart Edmunds f11-1-4 (71) 78 j1-0-1 (-) 83 79
The Gurkha (Dubawi){10-a}(0.63) 3/2 State Crown 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (110), Newton Abbot 2021
Of all the active trainers in Britain and Ireland who have had fifteen of more juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have a strike rate higher than the 25.64% of Stuart Edmunds. Before Addosh made her hurdling debut at Stratford, the yard's first-time strike rate of 42.86% was bettered only by Nicky Henderson and Desmond McDonogh. Prior to selling for 15,000 guineas at Tattersalls in July, she had amassed a win and three places on the flat for Hugo Palmer and her BHA mark of 71 made her strong at the weights both at Stratford and again here. Her pedigree is not without its potential either as while The Gurkha is one of Galileo's speedier sons, he is related to good jumpers and the sireline does well in the sphere. Damsire Dubawi has a 26.67% winner to runner rate in that role which includes Leoncavallo and State Crown - the latter being a 3/2 relative of Addosh who won a handicap hurdle as a juvenile last season. Steady in the market throughout the day, she did drift out to 15/2 in the Stratford ring, but this was on account of the confidence behind Caramelised and she still started second favourite. Held up in the early stages, she pulled hard in patches but was able to settle reasonably well before too long. Towards the rear at the fifth, she made robust headway in a short amount of time along the back and was travelling strongly just behind the leaders two flights later. Addosh was the last pursuer on the bridle approaching the home turn, but had been completely outpaced by the winner who was long gone before they could see the stands. Nevertheless, while no match for the Caramelised, the remainder of the field were left in her wake and there were sixteen and thirteen lengths between herself, the third and the fourth. Addosh jumped some of her hurdles quite well, although she was steep at the first, very untidy at the third and low at the last while also showing a slight tendency to go right. Overall, it was a satisfactory introduction and while she was a class below the winner, there was enough to suggest she has a future in this sphere. Though not a headcase, she could still settle better which might enable her to run a more consistent race insofar as pace is concerned. Better hurdling should come with experience and she may even be served well by going right handed. Addosh has ample scope for improvement and while there is no obvious reason for her to reverse placings with Caramelised, a good showing can not be discounted. 
tl;dr
Caramelised - Sets clear form standard on his two wins at Stratford and was particularly impressive last time out. Yard has strong record in this race although its lack of any recent winners is a slight concern.
Sacre Pierre - Unraced on flat but made it two from two at Cartmel recently. Unexposed with scope for further improvement, although he would still have a bit to find with Caramelised.
Whyzzat - Regressive on flat but won Ireland's curtain raiser at Roscommon in early August. Slightly disappointing next time but form still decent. Scheduled to race at Dundalk on the eve of this contest.
Crane - Winner on flat for Michael Bell and joined Nicky Henderson for his hurdling career. However, his two efforts to date leave him with a great deal to find and stamina is not assured.
Scots Gold - Fair on flat for Tom Dascombe without reaching the frame. Was promising on his hurdling debut at Stratford and form has since been boosted by the third. Trainer form is currently an unknown. 
Stigwood - Moderate on flat and while new trainer is capable of readying one first time, lack of form and experience are massively detrimental in the context of this race. 
Von Melas - Little flat form and lacked fluency when well behind Caramelised on hurdles debut. Fit from recent run but too much to do in this company.
Addosh - Flat winner for Hugo Palmer and mark from that sphere gives her chance on these terms. Joined underrated yard for hurdling career and while unlikely to reverse placings with Caramelised, debut outing not without promise.
Strong prospects
1. Caramelised
Reasonable prospects
2. Sacre Pierre
3. Scots Gold
4. Addosh
Feasible prospects
5. Whyzzat
Moderate prospects
6. Crane
Negligible prospects
7. Von Melas
8. Stigwood
Also, I try not to do this often but it is a relatively big race for the sphere and I did put a fair amount of effort and love into those four thousand-ish words. While it hasn't been mentioned recently, I am still doing this against the backdrop of the assorted naffness that comes with living in a homeless shelter. So if you have the means, it could potentially be really helpful to my long term stability if you gave the preview a like and/or share on twitter. Plus, you can rest assured that your act of charity won't end up in my veins which means you get all of the satisfaction of helping the homeless without any of the neuroticism from wondering whether you've helped or enabled
Thank you
https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1441464403061248003

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

I’m getting prepared for Cheltenham next year, I’m going the last two days. When I say I’m getting prepared I mean I’m drinking Guinness. First time in pub for a while. 

What a shame that they're digging up Southwell and converting it to another Tapeta track
It caters for a different set of horses than the other AW tracks ....... and if you're a smart punter who knows this it's a big help in finding those value bets
 

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 
I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 
This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.
Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 
I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 
This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.
Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

I’m thinking of going shit or bust as Paul Sykes used to say . Got 10k in life savings. Thinking of just banging 10k on the next unfortunate horse that happens to be my top rated . Ain’t telling the wife, mind. If it loses I’ll just blame the Tory party . 

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 
I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 
This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.
Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 
I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 
This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.
Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

I'm like others .....I think he will be punished and that's rightly so but this is the world we live in now ......how many of us have done something so ridiculously stupid that you look back now and cringe and think ...why ??...imagine if someone suddenly pulled a photo out of that incident 6 years later or whatever ......does that define you as a person  ....shoukd you be punished forever ???...... not defending what he did cos hes a dickhead ...but who can say they havent done stupid things 

Champ for the gold cup?
"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 
Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes ....
First of all you need to decided what is important and assign a percentage of importance ( which can be changed ) ....but the total must come to 100% so for this example I've assigned ....
Last time out form  (40 % )
1st or 2nd  10pts 
3rd or 4th 8pts 
5th or 6th   6pts 
7th or 8th  4pts 
9th or worse 2pts 
So that assigns recent form and what points the horse scores later we will come back to that 
 
Last win official rating +-lbs ( this is for hcaps for this example )   (15%) 
Off this hcap mark ....
Won    10pts 
1lb above last win   8pts 
2 or 3 lbs above last win  6pts 
4 or 5 pts above last win 4pts 
6 plus lbs above last win 2pts 
So that assigns how well hccapped the horse is 
 
Form on ground     ( 15% )
Won on ground    10pts 
Placed on ground 8pts 
Won on near to today's ground I.e good if today's gd/soft       6pts
Placed on near today's ground  4pts 
Ground not close  2pts 
 
Distance form  (20%)
Won dist    10pts 
Placed dist    8pts 
Won within 2f   6pts 
Placed within 2f  4pts 
No form 3f+  2pts 
 
Fitness    ( 10% )
Last run 14 to 28 days    10pts 
Last run 8 to 13 days 8pts 
Last run  29 to 42 days 6pts 
Last run 1 to 7 days  4pts 
Last run 43days plus   2pts 
 
Right that's all values assigned ....the percentage in brackets is the importance I've assigned to each section ....this can be changed by yourself but must total 100% overall 
We now come to the formula that works out value 
Value =  ( 40 * last time score ) + ( 15 * last win o.r score ) + (15 * ground section score ) + ( 20 * distance score ) + (10 * fitness score ) 
Looks complicated but the first number in each bracket is the percentage you assigned to each group at the top .....multiplyed by the score your horse achieved in each section ......
So in the last time out section at the top if your horse finished 2nd last time it would score 10pts so the first bracket of the value formula would be ( 40 * 10 ) ...you carry on for each section to complete the formula 
Let's do a working example as this will make it clearer 
My horse finished 2nd last time ......is 2lbs above last win ......has placed on ground   ......won at distance ......last ran 42 days ago 
Scores for each section are 
Last time  10pts 
2lb above win 6pts 
Placed on ground  8pts 
Won at distance   10pts 
Last ran 42 days    6pts 
Now you plug those numbers into the value formula 
Value = ( 40*10 )+( 15*6)+(15*8)+(20*10)+(10*6)
Next stage is to convert the first number in each bracket ( the percentage )..to a decimal by dividing it by 100 
Value =( .4*10)+ (.15*6)+(.15 *8)+(.20*10)+ (.1*6)
Note the first number is a decimal   .5 etc
Now work out each bracket with your calculator and add up 
Value = (4)+(.90)+(1.2)+(2)+(.6)
Totals for all brackets = 8.7 so this is the value score for horse 1 
You now do the same for other horses ....of course this can be done on computer or spreadsheet for speed and you just plug the numbers in 
Just for this example let's pretend it's a 3 horse race so each horse rated as follows 
Horse 1   8.7
Horse 2   7.8 
Horse 3  8.1 
You now add up the scores for all horses.....in this case its ...24.6 
We are now gonna create a price for each horse by taking the score for each horse and dividing it by the total score 
Horse 1   8.7 /24.6 =0.353
Horse 2   7.8/24.6 =0.317
Horse 3  8.1 /24.6 =0.329
Times each score by 100 to get your final percentage value figure 
Horse 1 35% 
Horse 2 31%
Horse 3  32% 
You can now convert this percentage to a price using brigadier chart above and compare your value price with the actual price on offer .....if the odds on offer are far higher then your onto a winner long term ......and that's value in a nutshell ?
If you cant find the exact percentage price just go as close as you can and round up preferably to be safe 
 

Nothing wrong with Chorley celebrating as they gave been tested and are free of "covid" but of course they might have another virus or illness between them which could kill but hey ho no "covid" .That is what matters apparently.
Also I would not believe the propaganda that is in the media , figures can be distorted and they are. Only my opinion of course but at least it is honest.?
 

Needless to say I am looking forward to the Down Royal Hunter Chase this afternoon with Aloneamongmillions and Bilaway clashing. We will also get to see if Stand Up And Fight can back up his Fairyhouse win and David Christie has Winged Leader, on a recovery mission and Some Man as well. I wont be having a bet in the race myself and will update this after the race with my thoughts as well as reporting on what happened at Barbury and Alnwick at the weekend this side of the Irish seas.

I watch a lot of racing i also watch a lot of the betting movements and it is my opinion that the sp is 99% of the time less than the last show (sometimes many points shorter). this is what happens when there are no on course bookies. the offline firms (all accountants not bookies) can pretty much do as they like. A further observation is that more often than not half the field is shortened up either just before the off or after it, I bet lots of FC and TC and the returns are getting murdered, 10+ horse being shortened up when only one can win is not a level playing field. The worse thing about it is we can do nothing about it.

Ah BOG......... a distant memory
There's more than 1 way to skin a cat,
If the average of the other books is greater than your extra place race price (which they usually are), take sp instead of the price then you'll get the better price not quite BOG but usually better than the price they offer pre race on the extra place races.

I am hearing that John Gosden might have a nice two year old Dubawi filly in his care, and has an entry next week [Nottingham]
Missile

I understand that last point, but I am pretty certain he would want everyone to carry on as normal. He clearly loved this place and when the rest of us had a conference call earlier I think it properly dawned on us how much he actually did. He was keen for the place to continue to thrive after Paul left us and he would want the same now. He may be gone, but he certainly won't be forgotten. Certainly in the short term I will try and replace him in the horse section so if anyone has any questions etc then don't be afraid to ask. 

Graham had been on this forum for so long none of us could find out when he started. As people have said although Paul was the owner of Punters Lounge, Graham was for most the face of it given the amount of things he did on this forum. He told me recently that he was planning to move to the Scottish Highlands for a quieter life and it is a great shame that has been taken away from him. 
Naturally his shoes are going to take some filling and we aren't quite sure how we are going to do that just yet especially as it has been such a big shock. 

I think the real good juveniles trained by Aidan O'Brien are yet to run, and am told this Camelot filly could be one of them
Santa Barbara

Just doing the Tips for tomorrow and came across something I have not seen before.
The top rated horse in the 440 at Killarney is Dream Point and he's carrying a 6lb penalty. When i looked closer i noticed that he didn't actually win last time out, he was second. 
 
Whoever writes the comments has got it wrong as he states he won last time

 
Apparently he appealed the result and got a penalty anyway??
 

Never noticed that before and just goes to show you can't believe the PA all the time.
 
Edit: Full story here
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/i-dont-see-how-a-judge-can-call-a-winner-owner-disputes-tramore-photo/447065
 

Painful but lucrative ?

Hi Trotter - appreciate these handicap selections - if only we could all do your selection from the 8.00 at Lingfield ...