CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL Thoughts, Advanced Tips and Value/Bad bets.

[Zilzalian]

Champ for the gold cup?

"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 

Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

[ipswich45]

Quick picks:   all are William Hill

Champion Hurdle:  Abacadabras   12/1
Queen Mother: Politilogue       9/1
Stayers Hurdle: McFabulous   14/1
Albert Bartlett : Alaphillipe   20/1
Gold Cup: A Plus Tard    6/1
 

[Villa Chris]

If Champ is anywhere near after the last then he’ll have a good chance purely because of his engine. 6/1 is very skinny though considering his prep.  I personally think he’s one of the horses that will give Al Boum a lot to think about . 
 

I like Abracadabras for the champion hurdle. The race will be run to suit him and wouldn’t surprise me if he picks them off. Thyme Hill I fancy to get it right this time with Richard Johnson on board in the stayers .

Edited February 22, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

3 weeks to go .....so I can start previewing and pre rating races .....think I'll start with the big races ....champion hurdle ...supreme...gold cup etc ss the hcaps are still fluid .....I'll have a go at the champion hurdle later today 

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

3 weeks to go .....so I can start previewing and pre rating races .....think I'll start with the big races ....champion hurdle ...supreme...gold cup etc ss the hcaps are still fluid .....I'll have a go at the champion hurdle later today 

I’ve not come up with a strategy yet for graded races. The handicaps I’m just going to wait for final declarations which is 48 hours before the race I think.  

[Trotter]

Far too early for me ...... I won't look at the races until the night before

Maybe an unpopular view but my take on it is that if there's racing today and tomorrow why look at a race 3 weeks from now ....... it'll come round in it's own time

But one thing I might chuck into the pot as regards the Novice races .... as well as all the usual factors of form, going, trip, track etc another thing to bear in mind is that a lot of runners will come to Cheltenham having run in a couple of 5 runner races where they are by far the best horse in the race. Totally different scenario now with 20 runners all of which are going to be pretty decent

I'd count it as a big plus factor if a horse has proven that they can handle the rough and tumble of a big field

[Zilzalian]

For me one of the biggest considerations is the ground, pretty much all the form this year has been on soft or worse, Cheltenham is rarely worse than good to soft. A lot of people will be fooled usually by "think bias" I think it always pays to be prepared to change your mind. By that I mean challenge your own thinking. Example- 4 weeks ago Shishkin only had to turn up, different ball game now. The handicaps I find a bit of a joke "laid out" equates to deception verging on cheating to me so I treat handicaps as small stakes fun bets.

[richard-westwood]

Here are my current champion hurdle ratings .....I've based on form rating .....official rating (class)...course form ....highest value place last 3 (class)

Honeysuckle  9.8   660

Epatante   9.7  670

Sharjah   8.8  660

Song for someone  8.3 643

Saint Roi   8.2  637

Abracadabras  8.1 641 

Silver streak  8.1  650 

Aspire tower  7.9   640 

Petit mouchoir  7.8  644 

2nd figure is my form best recent figure ..........

If you apply trends it does the following 

Only 3 of last 24 winners failed to win on last race before chelt .....I've been generous and allowed 2nd too that too

Honeysuckle  9.8   660

Epatante   9.7  670

Sharjah   8.8  660

Song for someone  8.3 643

Saint Roi   8.2  637

Abracadabras  8.1 641 

Silver streak  8.1  650 

Aspire tower  7.9   640 

Petit mouchoir  7.8  644 

2nd figure is my form best recent figure ..........

If you apply trends it does the following 

 

13 of last 14 were 6 or 7 y.o 

Leaves 

Honeysuckle   9.8

Epatante    9.7 

Song for someone  8.3 

Abracadabras    8.1 

I think the bookies have this race nailed on .....ordinarily I'd apply my last trend ....ran within 42 days and it would leave honeysuckle well clear but epatante is Henderson and if anyone can get one fully fit after a layoff its him and only him so for the win its top 2 ......the other 2 are good ew bets for sure

20.pt wins top 2 gives you a 40pt profit if either wins at current prices ....that seems the best and strongest  bet from my point of view .....

Edited February 22, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Wanderlust]

18 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Champ for the gold cup?

"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 

Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

Agreed on Santini. I have been backing him AP the last few weeks.

I would be amazed if they run Royal Pagaille this year

[Thornwick]

Benson entered in supreme and ballymore came from back fast finishing fourth last time out e/w chance ?

[Villa Chris]

Honeysuckle/Monkfish double(price boost) is now 8/1. Seems good value to me. Cannot see monkfish getting beat so you’ve basically got honeysuckle at 8/1. That’s the way I view it anyway. It’s with Skybet by the way. 

[Villa Chris]

Every week they do a price boost. Monkfish today is 11/8 instead of 8/11,  £10 max. Their weekly  price boost doubles  look tasty though and you can have unlimited funds on them providing you are not restricted. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

The problem with some of the graded races is that it’s pretty obvious who should be top rated or top two rated. I’d be puzzled if honeysuckle and epatante were not top two . I find the visuals tell you a lot about grade 1 races. The bookies tend to have them nailed on too.  The supreme for example, without doing any ratings, Appreciate It will surely be top rated by a few points . The Stayers hurdle might be a good one to rate. 

[richard-westwood]

The supreme is a race I like ....the bookies set up false favs and theres always something at a bigger price that's been overlooked ....usually in the 8 to 12/1 range 

[Villa Chris]

17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

The supreme is a race I like ....the bookies set up false favs and theres always something at a bigger price that's been overlooked ....usually in the 8 to 12/1 range 

Just can’t see past Appreciate It in this . He’s got a couple of unfriendly trends to overcome but I know I keep saying this, but it seems a weak supreme. I’ve got Ballyadam ew which I’m happy with. I think he could get closer on G/S ground. What I will say though is that I wouldn’t put anyone off having Willie Mullins outsider whoever that may be. I think Blue Lord will be his outsider on the day who’s currently 20/1. Whoever beats Appreciate it will have to find a few Ibs improvement unless Metiers RPR  holds up but the form took a hit in the bet fair hurdle yesterday. 

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Trotter said:

Far too early for me ...... I won't look at the races until the night before

Maybe an unpopular view but my take on it is that if there's racing today and tomorrow why look at a race 3 weeks from now ....... it'll come round in it's own time

But one thing I might chuck into the pot as regards the Novice races .... as well as all the usual factors of form, going, trip, track etc another thing to bear in mind is that a lot of runners will come to Cheltenham having run in a couple of 5 runner races where they are by far the best horse in the race. Totally different scenario now with 20 runners all of which are going to be pretty decent

I'd count it as a big plus factor if a horse has proven that they can handle the rough and tumble of a big field

Likewise .

Ante post is far better now than days gone by with NRNB but you get nowhere near the value from back in the day plus the multi entries of some horses .

Will all the Irish & French in Cross Country be allowed to turn up .

The most important factor of all , what's the going going to be like ?

Countryfile weather forecast  Sunday before then it's time to pick a few , each to their own but there's lots of racing before March 16th , but good luck if your playing early !

Oh , Gordon Elliott has a cracking record in handicaps at the festival ?

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

18 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

Agreed on Santini. I have been backing him AP the last few weeks.

I would be amazed if they run Royal Pagaille this year

Similar situation to Coneygree if was my horse i would say go for it we may never get another chance.

[Wanderlust]

11 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Similar situation to Coneygree if was my horse i would say go for it we may never get another chance.

Coneygree is the one I was thinking of, last novice to win the Gold Cup if memory serves. However I seem to remember being overly impressed by Coneygree. The main difference I see is that Coneygree won Grade 2's and a Grade 1 (Denman Chase) running and beating horses around the 160 mark, easily. Royal Pagaille, though hugely impressive, has won a couple of handicaps and a substandard Peter Marsh, beating horses in the mid 130's.

I think RP is a future Gold Cup winner, but needs another year under its belt. Coneygree was a freak of nature!!

[Villa Chris]

I expect Monkfish and Envoi Allen to be stepping into the gold cup next year . I’d personally have a crack at it this year, why not? If he’s good enough there’s only one way to find out.  Was Coneygree ever the same after winning the gold cup? Maybe they would rather give him another year or think he has a better chance of winning prize money elsewhere. If they think he’s good enough they will no doubt run him. 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Striker]

Stayers Hurdle-Thyme Hill

Should be unbeaten this season, my banker of the week

Currently 4-1 with Bet 365 or 7-2 NRNB

Edited February 23, 2021 by Striker

[Villa Chris]

17 minutes ago, Striker said:

Stayers Hurdle-Thyme Hill

Should be unbeaten this season, my banker of the week

Currently 4-1 with Bet 365 or 7-2 NRNB

I’d love Paisley Park to win but I think Richard Johnson will make sure there’s no hard luck stories this time on Thyme Hill . Paisley obviously still has it but I don’t think he’s quite as good as he was and he won’t get away with how he ran lto at Ascot even though he won. 

[Striker]

Thyme is also 2 years younger than Paisley which I think is an advantage

[Villa Chris]

Yep, that will play a big part. 

[Thornwick]

Thyme Hill was also cursed last year!!! 

[Villa Chris]

Anyone think Altior is a good bet at 6/1? Again would love him to win then retire him . Keep thinking back to Sprinter Sacre coming back to win at the festival after flopping and being written off the year before. Two different horses I know and I personally think Sprinter Sacre was better than altior . Altior 6/1 is a good ew bet I reckon . Aslong as it’s not heavy ground. 

[Wanderlust]

9 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Anyone think Altior is a good bet at 6/1? Again would love him to win then retire him . Keep thinking back to Sprinter Sacre coming back to win at the festival after flopping and being written off the year before. Two different horses I know and I personally think Sprinter Sacre was better than altior . Altior 6/1 is a good ew bet I reckon . Aslong as it’s not heavy ground. 

Its actually 39/5 with my cr@ppy bookie (Marathon). If you are confident of it finishing in the first 3 and reckon it has a squeak of winning, then you should back it. Personally I think all is not well with the horse. I think it has had several niggly problems and will never be the horse he was. I think Chacun is as near a racing certainty as can be, but I would put the likes of Politologue/Nube Negra/ Sceau Royale all coming in front of Altior. But thats my opinion. Racing always surprises!!

[Villa Chris]

31 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

Its actually 39/5 with my cr@ppy bookie (Marathon). If you are confident of it finishing in the first 3 and reckon it has a squeak of winning, then you should back it. Personally I think all is not well with the horse. I think it has had several niggly problems and will never be the horse he was. I think Chacun is as near a racing certainty as can be, but I would put the likes of Politologue/Nube Negra/ Sceau Royale all coming in front of Altior. But thats my opinion. Racing always surprises!!

He’s definitely not the same horse. Age , running against Cyrname above what he’s used to running at and whatever else maybe going on with him. I was ready to retire him in his last race but having rewatched the race a few times he stayed on at the end. The heart might be speaking here but I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled one last hurrah out the hat. 

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Anyone think Altior is a good bet at 6/1? Again would love him to win then retire him . Keep thinking back to Sprinter Sacre coming back to win at the festival after flopping and being written off the year before. Two different horses I know and I personally think Sprinter Sacre was better than altior . Altior 6/1 is a good ew bet I reckon . Aslong as it’s not heavy ground. 

Yep , I do .

A heart over head bet .

The Mullins horse looks a good thing but no value at odds on whereas bet365 are 8/1 second favourite with Politilogue who's been good this season after wind op third at 10's & as you say , replicate Sprinter Sacre performance who not many gave a chance & bow out on the top , just a shame only a few hundred & not 65k there to witness .

[Villa Chris]

5 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Yep , I do .

A heart over head bet .

The Mullins horse looks a good thing but no value at odds on whereas bet365 are 8/1 second favourite with Politilogue who's been good this season after wind op third at 10's & as you say , replicate Sprinter Sacre performance who not many gave a chance & bow out on the top , just a shame only a few hundred & not 65k there to witness .

The favourite looks a class above doesn’t he . I wouldn’t be concerned that he’s never ran at Cheltenham before either as Mullins horses don’t usually have any problems there. I’ve potentially got Chacun covered as long as Appreciate It does the business in the supreme . Currently you’d say Politilogue has the beating of Altior and went very close against him the other year . No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham but Monkfish, Envoi Allen and Chacun look the strongest bets in terms of winning . 

[Villa Chris]

Starting to think Blue Lord is a decent bet for the supreme . Ran well enough behind a ballymore fancy (Bob Olinger)at 2.4f . Probably wasnt ridden to his full potential lto but more prominent tactics in the supreme might see him closer. The thing that draws me in is that it’s a Mullins horse and I often see his outsiders run well in races . Will play him ew at 20/1 and leave it at that regarding supreme . 
 

Appreciate It(various prices) 

Ballyadam ew 12/1

Blue Lord ew 20/1