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GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT


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Hi everyone,

I feel that it may be worth while to start a general racing chat thread that may be useful for PL members.

Whether one wants to discuss the benefit or otherwise of horse race ratings, if a short priced favourite is better to back to win in a class 1 race as opposed to a class 6 race, which are the best bookies to use and/or gripes with them or Betfair or just about anything that you feel is worth bringing up during the racing week then I invite you to express yourself in this thread.

Whilst the "Racing Chat" thread does a good job of enabling PL members to write up, usually about their daily selections, I feel that interesting topics do not get extended discussion because the thread moves on the next day with new chat and what has been mentioned in the previous day's chat is very often lost.

I feel that many people may wish to discuss something about racing and this seems to be a good place to do it.

 

 

 

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I dont find much value in graded and group class races ....sometimes you can but bookies are very very good at pricing them up and the odds are stacked in their favour .... I tend to find a lot o

I think C/D winners are useful at quirky tracks Chester Goodwood Brighton Catterick Cartmel Ripon Fakenham possibly Musselburgh Not sure how much they are worth elsewhere, hand

Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. li

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Getting Value and Managing your Money when placing bets in horse racing.

Hopefully, this topic will be of interest to PL members.  I am outlining my point of view on this but truly welcome anyone else’s thoughts about it.

Managing my money comes quite easy to me as I have had years of experience in doing so.  Concerning racing, I manage my money by adjusting my betting stakes in accordance with available odds on offer.  It goes without saying that one looks for the highest odds available when striking a bet. Additionally, I always advise my fellow punters to set aside some money for their betting activities and to use this money for the sole purpose of betting.  Some people may save up all year round to go on a £1,000 plus holiday and I can see nothing wrong in an interested punter doing the same but setting aside the money for betting purposes.  If managed properly the set aside money will last a lot longer than a holiday which is over in about one to two weeks.  Never bet money that is meant to be used for daily living costs.

 

I like to break my staking in accordance with the best available odds on offer as follows.

(A)   Odds 1/1 – 15/8 Stakes = £4.00 min profit £4 to max profit £7.50

(B)   Odds 2/1 – 7/2  Stakes =  £2.00 min profit £4 to max profit £7.00

     (C ) Odds 4/1 - 9/1   Stakes =  £1.00 min profit £4 to max profit £10.00

(D)   Odds 10/1 – 24/1Stakes = £0.50 min profit £5 to max profit of £12

      (E ) Odds 25/1 – 100/1+ stakes = £0.25 min profit £6.25 to max profit of say £25

Just a couple of notes on this.  I rarely have faith in placing £4 stakes on even money to 15/8 shots as they seem to let me down too much.  Also, I tend to put 50p on my 25/1 + bets as they are few and far between. I don’t have a staking criterion for odds on shots; I rarely back them.  If I am tempted with selections that are slightly odds on I will not exceed a £4 stake on any of them.

The good thing about breaking down market prices into the above bandwidths is that one can then use these categories to assess which selection(s) offer the best value for money in betting terms.  Hence, if I am looking at say 4/5 races with horses within the price range of (B) 2/1 TO 7/2 I can just focus on each horse in each race and then decide for myself which is the best horse to back. The factors affecting my decision are of course variable but by methodically looking at each one, in turn, I can conclude as to which one(s) are most likely to give me a run for my money. Just for example if horse number one hasn’t been out since the jumps season last year and its yard is yet to strike form and horse number two has excellent recent form and its yard is banging in the winners it doesn’t take too much deliberation to decide which should be the best horse to give me a run for my money.

I hope that PL members will find this information helpful and of course welcome anyone else’s approach to money management and getting value for money in their betting.

 

 

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Blind Punting .

At the moment my 3 favoured accounts out of the numerous I've tried are suspended on my terms.

I've had a shocking July other than at Hong Kong who are now on a break so my accounts will be back open on August 1st , I feel it's good to take a break mentally & a will power challenge as well , still post a Nap up daily here & in tipster challenge , does anybody else on here have a break when on a bad run , or do you just punt blindly ?

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26 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I hope that PL members will find this information helpful and of course welcome anyone else’s approach to money management and getting value for money in their betting.

Each to their own TE but you shouldn't let the price rule your stakes too much in my opinion.

I get it that if a horse is 25/1 you may 'not need' to have much on but I see no difference in backing a 4/5 shot or 4/1 shot, i'd have the same on.

Just my opinion, not saying i'm right:ok

 

13 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

does anybody else on here have a break when on a bad run , or do you just punt blindly ?

I don't believe taking a break helps me, i need to be watching and taking an interest all the time to keep up. I may reduce stakes a tad or maybe look for a 'safer' bet or EW bet to build the confidence back up . Thats my way of handling a poor run. We all have them.
I thinks its also important to make hay when your luck changes too.

:ok

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Was going to ask the question in Racing Syndicates but perhaps more relevant here. My Friend Stan run in a handicap off 75 and was dropped 3lbs to 72 after finishing 7l 4th with a performance rating of 66. Next race was a maiden where again he finished 4th 10l behind Rebel Soldier Boy. Next race he finished 1l behind the same rival at Catterick in another maiden. Now I was expecting his handicap rating to go up on Tuesday but it was unchanged. Now I thought every race was analysed and ratings were adjusted the following week. So my question is are maidens excempt from this? If not why did his rating remain unchanged when he was 9l closer.

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49 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Was going to ask the question in Racing Syndicates but perhaps more relevant here. My Friend Stan run in a handicap off 75 and was dropped 3lbs to 72 after finishing 7l 4th with a performance rating of 66. Next race was a maiden where again he finished 4th 10l behind Rebel Soldier Boy. Next race he finished 1l behind the same rival at Catterick in another maiden. Now I was expecting his handicap rating to go up on Tuesday but it was unchanged. Now I thought every race was analysed and ratings were adjusted the following week. So my question is are maidens excempt from this? If not why did his rating remain unchanged when he was 9l closer.

Just looking at the horse's form in the Racing Post the obvious factor is that the second maiden race was a Class 6 whereas the first one was a Class 5. In other words it was a worse race on paper so the handicapper would have expected the horse to finish closer to the front

He's been well beaten in handicaps off 82, 80, 77. Now he's on 72 and the direction of travel is downwards without showing much sign that he's capable of winning a handicap off this kind of mark

The handicapper wouldn't be putting him back up for getting beaten in a low grade maiden

 

 

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Each to their own TE but you shouldn't let the price rule your stakes too much in my opinion.

I get it that if a horse is 25/1 you may 'not need' to have much on but I see no difference in backing a 4/5 shot or 4/1 shot, i'd have the same on.

Just my opinion, not saying i'm right:ok

 

I don't believe taking a break helps me, i need to be watching and taking an interest all the time to keep up. I may reduce stakes a tad or maybe look for a 'safer' bet or EW bet to build the confidence back up . Thats my way of handling a poor run. We all have them.
I thinks its also important to make hay when your luck changes too.

:ok

 Hmm. I am not saying that you are wrong but the point I was making was much about protecting my betting bank.  Using your example, a horse that is priced at 4/5 has (ignoring any overound) a probability of winning about 56% of the time.  A horse at 4/1 has a twenty percent chance of winning.  If I had a £100 bank and I liked to bet £10 on each horse I would feel fairly confident that I wouldn't have a run of 10 losers on the trot and exhaust my bank account.  However, I would not be so happy to place £10 on each selection at 4/1.  I reckon that I could easily blow my betting bank.

Haha, you remind me of the great Phil Bull of Timeform fame.  He used to say that if your staking plan can't win at even stakes then no amount of fiddling with stakes, especially increasing them after losers would help.  However, even he in his later life would put up to three times the amount of stake on what he thought was a very good bet

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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Blind Punting .

At the moment my 3 favoured accounts out of the numerous I've tried are suspended on my terms.

I've had a shocking July other than at Hong Kong who are now on a break so my accounts will be back open on August 1st , I feel it's good to take a break mentally & a will power challenge as well , still post a Nap up daily here & in tipster challenge , does anybody else on here have a break when on a bad run , or do you just punt blindly ?

Sorry to hear about your bad run.  We all have them from time to time.  I think that it is a good idea to take a break and a rest from racing sometimes.  I also agree with Graham that he doesn't like to get out of touch.  One thing that no one should ever do is punt blindly. I am pretty sure that most punters would agree with me, however you will find all the bookmakers, I feel sure, tell you that your luck might change. It is almost certain that their's will 

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I go through periods of betting and not betting but when I am betting I just bet the same stake on every selection

My reasoning is that I'd rather spend the time trying to find a winner than worrying about how much to put on

For the same reason I only have one betting account ....... I don't want to spend time flitting around sites or getting stuck on an odds comparison site waiting for odds to change

I guess it depends what you're in it for and betting has never been my main interest ...... I like looking at the races as puzzles to work out and get enjoyment from doing the puzzle and hopefully getting the answer right. Don't think I've had a bet on a horse for 2 years

I'm currently losing money on football  ....... should really get back to the horses !

 

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11 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Just looking at the horse's form in the Racing Post the obvious factor is that the second maiden race was a Class 6 whereas the first one was a Class 5. In other words it was a worse race on paper so the handicapper would have expected the horse to finish closer to the front

He's been well beaten in handicaps off 82, 80, 77. Now he's on 72 and the direction of travel is downwards without showing much sign that he's capable of winning a handicap off this kind of mark

The handicapper wouldn't be putting him back up for getting beaten in a low grade maiden

I sort of understand that but he was 9l closer to the same horse Rebel Soldier Boy in both races racing on the same terms I think, so would the handicapper not look at that?

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2 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

I sort of understand that but he was 9l closer to the same horse Rebel Soldier Boy in both races racing on the same terms I think, so would the handicapper not look at that?

I see that Rebel Soldier Boy has only been put up 1lb for winning that class 6 maiden

I just don't think the handicapper will be putting a horse back up in the weights for not winning a class 6 maiden no matter how close he was to the winner ....... particularly a horse who's form in handicaps indicates that his mark is far too high already and really needs to keep falling until it reaches a level he can be competitive off

I think there's also a tendency not to put horses up for non-winning runs in maidens, novices and conditions races because they don't want to discourage trainers from entering them in those races

 

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15 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I see that Rebel Soldier Boy has only been put up 1lb for winning that class 6 maiden

I just don't think the handicapper will be putting a horse back up in the weights for not winning a class 6 maiden no matter how close he was to the winner ....... particularly a horse who's form in handicaps indicates that his mark is far too high already and really needs to keep falling until it reaches a level he can be competitive off

I think there's also a tendency not to put horses up for non-winning runs in maidens, novices and conditions races because they don't want to discourage trainers from entering them in those races

 

Thanks for your time and explanations be interesting following the development. I’m not convinced about him although I want to see him over 6f sometime, always being entered in 7f at the moment.

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5 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Thanks for your time and explanations be interesting following the development. I’m not convinced about him although I want to see him over 6f sometime, always being entered in 7f at the moment.

I see he's entered at Wolves on Sunday in an all-aged handicap ....... he'll get a 7lb allowance relative to the older horses

But he is number 38 in the entries and only 12 can run so he'll need a lot of them to pull out if he's to get in the race

I'll watch with interest !

One thing I did notice was that in his handicap runs he's always weakened at the end of the race .. maybe he's still a bit immature and will improve naturally as he grows into himself and strengthens up? 

His 3 handicaps have seen him beaten 22L, 10L, 7L so he is getting closer ! ....... 

 

 

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2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Each to their own TE but you shouldn't let the price rule your stakes too much in my opinion.

I get it that if a horse is 25/1 you may 'not need' to have much on but I see no difference in backing a 4/5 shot or 4/1 shot, i'd have the same on.

Just my opinion, not saying i'm right:ok

 

I don't believe taking a break helps me, i need to be watching and taking an interest all the time to keep up. I may reduce stakes a tad or maybe look for a 'safer' bet or EW bet to build the confidence back up . Thats my way of handling a poor run. We all have them.
I thinks its also important to make hay when your luck changes too.

:ok

Have to agree with BH on both counts , if you have a selection,  you chose it because you believe it can win whatever price it is is irrelevant in my opinion.  If it's a big price I may check again but ultimately it will be a standard bet or nothing. 

As far as losing runs go, we all have them but i believe if you are confident in your selection process there shouldn't be a problem. A sufficient bank is the key , I can go days without a winner ( as you can see with this months naps table ) but I have confidence with what I do, its stood me in good stead so why tinker . Have confidence  . Another interesting point is many get too emotional about losing,  if you have made selections for that day and they lose  that should be it not scampering about for ' frankie's good thing in the next will get my money back ' or ' lay x that's easy money '  or  tinkering , 'well if I do this from now on this should happen ' if I leave out class xyz I can do this . There is a winner of every race , Stick to the plan but whatever you do dont bet with money you cant afford to lose and dont bet with scared money either.  Good luck all 

 

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2 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I see he's entered at Wolves on Sunday in an all-aged handicap ....... he'll get a 7lb allowance relative to the older horses

But he is number 38 in the entries and only 12 can run so he'll need a lot of them to pull out if he's to get in the race

I'll watch with interest !

One thing I did notice was that in his handicap runs he's always weakened at the end of the race .. maybe he's still a bit immature and will improve naturally as he grows into himself and strengthens up? 

His 3 handicaps have seen him beaten 22L, 10L, 7L so he is getting closer ! ....... 

Can’t see him getting a run, he had two other entries this week and both were passed over. Never run on all weather surfaces yet. Will wait and see.

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Just a couple of notes on this.  I rarely have faith in placing £4 stakes on even money to 15/8 shots as they seem to let me down too much.  Also, I tend to put 50p on my 25/1 + bets as they are few and far between. I don’t have a staking criterion for odds on shots; I rarely back them.  If I am tempted with selections that are slightly odds on I will not exceed a £4 stake on any of them.

I tend to limit myself to £120 per day and £60 per selection. So if I have 10 selections I will put £12 on each one, if 1 selection £60.

It has taken me many years to get to this level, initially I started with a maximum of £5 per day. If I get to the stage where I have made an annual loss then I will reduce my stakes substantially.

Do you keep records of your selections?

From my records I find I make most money on the longer odds shots so in theory I should put more money on these, you do however have to have the mentality to withstand long losing runs if doing this.

I did have a run where I lost over £1,000 in a 4 week period but the next day I had £40 on a 33/1 shot so recovered all those losses in 1 race.

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Investec have pulled out of their sponsorship of The Derby after 10 years

The current deal was due to run until 2016 but Epsom and Investec have agreed to cancel it as the Company wishes to seek new marketing opportunities

So ....... the hunt is on for a new sponsor for the 'world's most famous race'

Any suggestions ?

I'd like to see Derby County and Nottingham Forest jointly sponsor the race and call it The Derby Derby Derby

........ and move it to Abu Dhabi

just for a laugh ..... 

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A question that often pops up is whether it is better to specialise in a subset of racing ....... based on race type, class, distance, age group or something else

Obviously with so much racing it is impossible to keep a handle on everything ..... and impossible to look at every race every day unless you just give them the briefest of glimpses

Probably my most successful period of betting and in the various competitions was a few years ago when I mainly stuck to the All Weather. But I think that was because I was spending a lot of time on it ........ typically I would spend all night looking at the following day's races. Someone once said 'the harder I work the luckier I get' ! I was keeping all sorts of notes, stats, doing speed ratings, keeping my own trainer notes etc. I think if you're putting a lot of work in I think it is worth specialising just to cut down the number of races you're looking at. I think the All Weather is particularly suited to this because the main season is over the winter when you don't need to worry about horses running outside of the box that you've drawn because there's no other flat racing for them to run in

At the moment I'm having a go at long distance races ..... ideally 3 mile plus hurdles and 14 furlongs plus on the flat

Quite interesting because in any race you'll usually find a fair proportion of the runners who haven't won over or not got much form at all the extended trip so it's a different puzzle ...... will the horse get the trip or more realistically 'will it be effective over the trip'?  All horses would probably stay 3 miles if they went slowly enough ........ same as me, I can walk 3 miles but I can't run 3 miles. 

And then apart from the trip you've got to assess all the usual factors of class, going, track, trainer etc

I'm a bit of a flitter .... I flitter from one thing to another sometimes in as little as a few days so not sure how long I'll be concentrating on stayers but if I notice anything worth commenting on I'll post further with some examples

 

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19 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Have to agree with BH on both counts , if you have a selection,  you chose it because you believe it can win whatever price it is is irrelevant in my opinion.  If it's a big price I may check again but ultimately it will be a standard bet or nothing. 

As far as losing runs go, we all have them but i believe if you are confident in your selection process there shouldn't be a problem. A sufficient bank is the key , I can go days without a winner ( as you can see with this months naps table ) but I have confidence with what I do, its stood me in good stead so why tinker . Have confidence  . Another interesting point is many get too emotional about losing,  if you have made selections for that day and they lose  that should be it not scampering about for ' frankie's good thing in the next will get my money back ' or ' lay x that's easy money '  or  tinkering , 'well if I do this from now on this should happen ' if I leave out class xyz I can do this . There is a winner of every race , Stick to the plan but whatever you do dont bet with money you cant afford to lose and dont bet with scared money either.  Good luck all 

 

I agree with a lot of what you say but we will have to beg to differ over staking within different price ranges.

The variable staking as I have described not only serves to aid money management but also reflects upon the probability of a horse winning a race.  A horse at even money (ignoring overround) has in theory and by and large in practice a 50% chance of winning a race.  Likewise, a horse priced at 9/1 has a 10% chance of winning a race.

As you know, the only way that you, me or anyone else who is having a bet can make money is to have struck bets at odds that are longer than a horse’s true chance of winning e.g. 60% in the case of the even-money shot and perhaps 20% in the case of the 9/1 shot.

However, there has to be a big difference in the winning and losing runs of 50% chance horses and 10% chance horses.

For this reason, I am suggesting that it is best to proportionally stagger one’s stakes when placing bets within various price ranges.

Horse race selection is not an exact science as we all know.  We all may think that we have found a good thing at a great price, and of course, if it wins we congratulate ourselves that we did.  However, punting on a day to day basis inevitably leads us to be subject to the certainty of market forces i.e. in the main the results will comply overall in percentage terms line with the prices that were offered e.g. even-money favourites will tend to win 50% of the time etc.

The beauty of categorising one’s possible bets into price bandwidths is that if we decide that we wish to say select some 10/1 shots in the mix of our daily bets and then reduce the stake from say a £2 win for a 7/2 shot and instead have four 50p win bets then we are increasing our chance of uncovering a bet with extra value added to it.

I don’t believe that any horse that I back will win.  All I am doing is seeking better odds than a horse’s chance of success so that I can win in the long run.

I also, feel very confident that seasoned and respected campaigners such as yourself, Graham and Mclarke are not going to lose your shirts any time soon.  However, Punters Lounge is always welcoming new members and of course, no one knows what sort of experience that they have been through betting wise before joining.  It is in this regard I feel that my advice may help them to secure a long happy relationship with their betting   

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I’ve been on a crap run lately.  Been trying various systems out but not betting on them, which has been quite enjoyable . Last week I tried the Clive Holt fineform system just out of curiosity.  Tried it for four days. First day I just did one meeting with it and it produced a £60 profit off £10 stake per race. The second day I did every race at every meeting that day. Ended up with a 33% strike rate and a £240 pound profit. One horse came in at 20/1. The third day it produced a small profit then I tried it with my selections on the Saturday and no luck.  
 

I do like the system as it’s simple and also gives you good basic building blocks to study a race. I do think you have to add your own filters to it though like if the horse can run on the going , or can it produce it in a higher class . I’ve decided I’m not going to bother with any class 5 or 6 races ,  and just concentrate on one meeting on the Saturday, so it narrows the field down a bit and I don’t end up with loads of selections. Ideally I want 4 horses that stand out with ratings so I can have 2 singles and a double. I’ve looked at tomorrow’s cards and decided York will be the meeting I’ll concentrate on. I’ve seen enough last week to make me believe there is profit in the system providing you don’t go in blind on the selections regarding ground conditions and class. At The Races race cards are good for assessing a horses form on going and on class. 

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2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

I have noticed the ATR site now has 'smart stats' on the racecards

I think this is a welcome addition and i much prefer them now to the Post who just gets worse unless you pay for the extras.

Ascot Tomorrow for example.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecards/Ascot/25-July-2020/SmartStats

 

:ok

Looks very interesting Graham.  One can get to the 5 year stats in the RP.  I don't know how reliable they are though.  Will definitely give this a go 🙂

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7 hours ago, Trotter said:

A question that often pops up is whether it is better to specialise in a subset of racing ....... based on race type, class, distance, age group or something else

Obviously with so much racing it is impossible to keep a handle on everything ..... and impossible to look at every race every day unless you just give them the briefest of glimpses

Probably my most successful period of betting and in the various competitions was a few years ago when I mainly stuck to the All Weather. But I think that was because I was spending a lot of time on it ........ typically I would spend all night looking at the following day's races. Someone once said 'the harder I work the luckier I get' ! I was keeping all sorts of notes, stats, doing speed ratings, keeping my own trainer notes etc. I think if you're putting a lot of work in I think it is worth specialising just to cut down the number of races you're looking at. I think the All Weather is particularly suited to this because the main season is over the winter when you don't need to worry about horses running outside of the box that you've drawn because there's no other flat racing for them to run in

At the moment I'm having a go at long distance races ..... ideally 3 mile plus hurdles and 14 furlongs plus on the flat

Quite interesting because in any race you'll usually find a fair proportion of the runners who haven't won over or not got much form at all the extended trip so it's a different puzzle ...... will the horse get the trip or more realistically 'will it be effective over the trip'?  All horses would probably stay 3 miles if they went slowly enough ........ same as me, I can walk 3 miles but I can't run 3 miles. 

And then apart from the trip you've got to assess all the usual factors of class, going, track, trainer etc

I'm a bit of a flitter .... I flitter from one thing to another sometimes in as little as a few days so not sure how long I'll be concentrating on stayers but if I notice anything worth commenting on I'll post further with some examples

 

I like the way that you are always looking for an angle to help us punters

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19 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I tend to limit myself to £120 per day and £60 per selection. So if I have 10 selections I will put £12 on each one, if 1 selection £60.

It has taken me many years to get to this level, initially I started with a maximum of £5 per day. If I get to the stage where I have made an annual loss then I will reduce my stakes substantially.

Do you keep records of your selections?

From my records I find I make most money on the longer odds shots so in theory I should put more money on these, you do however have to have the mentality to withstand long losing runs if doing this.

I did have a run where I lost over £1,000 in a 4 week period but the next day I had £40 on a 33/1 shot so recovered all those losses in 1 race.

I don't keep records of my selections but I do have a good idea as to which bandwidths work for me.  For example, since I have been choosing either the 1/1 to 15/8 and/or the 2/1 - 7/2 ranges for my multiples I have had a lot more success than when I used to try my multiples on a price range of 3/1 upwards. Unfortunately I still have the deficit to make up to get back to my initial £800.  I feel very confident that I will do so.

Interesting that you would put £60 on selections and divide the £120 figure by the number of selections that you have on any one day.  Also, did you purposely reduce your stake for the 33/1 shot or did you have 3 selections on that day?

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

People that don't keep records only remember what they want to,

only looking at your past betting record will you see the real truth.

Totally agree, one of the golden rules of betting, keep records and analyse them on a regular basis.

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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Interesting that you would put £60 on selections and divide the £120 figure by the number of selections that you have on any one day.  Also, did you purposely reduce your stake for the 33/1 shot or did you have 3 selections on that day?

Yep 3 selections that day, the other 2 lost (one of them odds on).

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