Racing Chat - Weds 19th Aug

[richard-westwood]

145 symphony 

Jawwaal    230 +2 

Lahore    230 +1 

Acclaim the nation 229 +1 

Jonah jones    226 +1 

Justanitherbottle 224 +1 

As youd expect any number of possibles in this race with others probably been trained to the minute for this race but top 3 are a couple of points clear and can currently get 19.0 on betfair on acclaim the nation and that's good value ( my tissue is 11 )...the 7/1 on jaawaal looks decent odds with bet365 ....I'd expect that to go so I'll take it 

Acclaim the nation 10pts win 19.0 betfair 

Jaawal 10pts win 7/1 bet365 

I'll update on Lahore later 

Update...I'll take the 14/1 with hills on Lahore 10pts win 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

145 York

1pt EW Soldiers Minute 20/1 bet365
1pt EW Copper Knight 18/1 bet365
 

345 York

1pt EW Makawee 18/1 Hills
1pt EW Summer Moon 18/1 Hills

4 EW Doubles @ SP  

 

[BillyHills]

Just doing the Tips for tomorrow and came across something I have not seen before.

The top rated horse in the 440 at Killarney is Dream Point and he's carrying a 6lb penalty. When i looked closer i noticed that he didn't actually win last time out, he was second. 

 

Whoever writes the comments has got it wrong as he states he won last time

 

Apparently he appealed the result and got a penalty anyway??

 

Never noticed that before and just goes to show you can't believe the PA all the time.

 

Edit: Full story here

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/i-dont-see-how-a-judge-can-call-a-winner-owner-disputes-tramore-photo/447065

 

[calva decoy]

Weather doesn't look great for York tomorrow , rain starting around start of the 1st race & continuing to be steady for most of the day , reckon they'll be a few non runners in the later races & probably loads on Thursday albeit they spent around £2 million on improving The Knavesmire a few years so dries quickish , I'll be holding my bets for time being .

[Trotter]

3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Just doing the Tips for tomorrow and came across something I have not seen before.

 

I saw something strange the other day (not in this league but odd all the same)

It was a handicap race and a  horse was running who'd only run twice before and hadn't won

I thought the rule was that you had to run 3 times to get a handicap mark if you don't win a race

Perhaps the rule has been changed for the shortened season ?

[BillyHills]

42 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I saw something strange the other day (not in this league but odd all the same)

It was a handicap race and a  horse was running who'd only run twice before and hadn't won

I thought the rule was that you had to run 3 times to get a handicap mark if you don't win a race

Perhaps the rule has been changed for the shortened season ?

 

 

Only 2 runs this season due to the lockdown, which a few trainers have taken advantage of.

(by the way it was just 2 before as long as both runs were placed, then they could ask the handicapper for a mark.)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.45 York - 1pt win Aricebo @ 15/2 Bet365

Has been threatening to win one of these lately having dropped a few pounds in the handicap to a handy mark. Was arguably unlucky behind Jawwaal a few starts back but is now weighted significantly better off with that one given its progressive profile and there's plenty to like about Aricebo's chances. Wasn't beaten far when staying on from the rear here a couple of starts back and the small field at Haydock didn't play to his strengths last time. Down the weights as a result, the slightly easier ground is no problem at all and might actually help him rein in the leaders towards the finish, so should go close.

2.15 York - 1pt e/w Spycatcher @ 18/1 Bet365

The Godolphin horse was impressive on debut but I wonder if a bit of ease in the ground is what it wants (should the ground race on the good to soft side) and with eight runners currently, will side with Karl Burke's runner at a healthy price. Ran a rock solid race on debut at Redcar in a decent race despite having a horrible start when stumbling badly and nearly unseating his rider. That cost him a good three lengths or so at the start but made up some good ground before just failing to find any extra in 4th. Was fairly easy to back that day and Burke's runners typically come on for their first outing. Any cut in the ground won't inconvenience, he's bred to enjoy the step up in trip and looks a lively outsider today.

2.45 York - 1pt e/w Pyledriver @ 11/1 Bet365

I backed Highland Chief two starts back and Mogul last time - both successfully - but today I'm siding with Pyledriver who I think has been ignored a bit here. Clearly Mogul wasn't fully fit at Ascot when beaten by Pyledriver but you couldn't argue with the way William Muir's runner got the job done that day, travelling powerfully and quickening clear like a good horse. I think you can essentially draw a line through the Derby - especially for this one who was hampered on the far side, raced in second last afterwards and from there, never had a chance. Stayed on okay up the straight despite clearly not being an ease on the track either and I think is more than capable of bouncing back with a big run today on a course that will suit and comes here fresher than most.

3.15 York - 2pts win Lord North @ 4/1 Bet365

I just wonder if today is the day that Ghaiyyath gets reined in - was always going to beat Anthony Van Dyke and Stradivarius a couple of starts back for me and Enable clearly needed the run behind him last time so I just wonder if race fit, top class horses can overcome him here. Magical and Rose of Kildare can keep him honest and it wouldn't surprise me if Kameko and Lord North were the ones to pounce - of the two, I like Lord North who couldn't have been more impressive at Ascot and still seems to be progressing. You can't knock his form this season, even when needing the run on his first start of the campaign and can just travel off the pace and power through late.

3.45 York - 2pts win Make My Day @ 4/1 Bet365

Is the favourite for this contest but remains fairly unexposed and I think the step up in trip can suit even further. Clearly has bags of stamina, opening his career over 1m4f before keeping on strongly to win over 1m6f at Goodwood. Outstayed good horses in Cape Cavalli and Caravan of Hope that day - both of which are now rated higher than what Make My Day runs off today. This one stayed on powerfully to win here last time over 1m4f, under pressure for a while but well on top at the finish. I think he's still well handicapped and the extra stamina test shouldn't inconvenience.

4.20 York - 2pts win Dancin Inthestreet @ 9/4 Bet365

Not much fun but I think wins today - has been a winner waiting to happen for a long time having been desperately unlucky in a couple of runs this season. Ran a blinder having found traffic at Royal Ascot, just got run out of it over further on soft ground having raced along two starts back and couldn't get involved in a group 3 when last seen. Back to 5f and a handicap today off a decent mark with a guaranteed decent pace to run off I think will take the world of beating.

4.50 York - 2pts win Pure Dreamer @ 9/2 Bet365

Might be the favourite for this but still is a decent price and I'm very sweet on his chances today. Ran in the good novice race won by Royal Scimitar, fading late on as if in need of the run on debut but even on the evidence of that, his opening mark of 72 looks more than fair and that's even excluding his excellent run behind the all-the-way winner Politics at Sandown last time over 5f. Travelled pretty well but was given plenty to do and couldn't reel in the winner for all he kept on very well late on without ever being hit with the whip and shaped like the extra furlong today was what he needs. Handicapping off 72 with conditions to suit, I think he'll take the world of beating.

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie at £1.50 = £6 v £59.99

2.15 York Cloudbridge 6/4
2.45 York Mogul 2/1
3.15 York Ghaiyyath 6/4

The Bookies will be sobbing if all these win; but I guess fate will rescue them.

Back later

3.15 York Ghaiyyath £4 win at 13/8 (would be good for some compensation for my Trixie)

3.45 York Volcanic sky 50p ew at 12/1
3.45 Yk Make My Day £1 win at 4/1

4.20 Yk Keep Busy 50p ew at 9/2
4.20 Yk Dandy's Beano 50p ew at 16/1

4.50 Yk Perrotto 50p ew at 8/1
4.50 Yk Soldiers Lions 50p ew at 9/1

3.55 Bath City Walk £1 win at 2/1
3.55 Bath Coronation Cottage 50p ew at 10/1

Multiples = £6 (already lost)

Singles = £12

============================================================================================

Well, two hot pots lost.  That Cloudbridge looked so upset that it lost its chance soon after leaving the stalls.  So much for class race horses. I forgot to click the ew button and Keep Busy was placed so I have reduced my stake and return.  Also forgot to include Tarboosh at 50/1 which I had in the Naps comp.  Finished 3rd.  No worries.

Multiples loss = £6.00 and the balance c/fwd = £685.68 (Bank £800)

Luckily my retrieval bet paid off on Ghaiyyath paid off. (£4 stakes are within my betting price range of prices evens to 15/8).  = £10.50 + £1.22 on Place money for Perrotto = £11.72 return less £11.50 stakes = 22p profit on the day  My singles balance c/fwd is now £321.63 (£400 Bank)

Seems tough atm for making a living at this game.  I think that laying may be easier though the liabilty is always higher than when backing.  With all this new data that I have access to I haven't had time to sort out my lay bets.  Must give them some serious thought to it soon.

Let's see how the esteemed beasts run tomorrow at York????

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Tedthewolf]

1.45 York ARECIBO 8/1 1/5 5place normally  i wouldnt  take a short of price horse in such a biig field  handicap but i think this horse is  a e/w cert if there is such a thing,  Deserves to win one of these big handicaps and wieghted to do so day.

[black rabbit]

Indianapolis  1 pt win @  27/1 betfair   3 45 york  

[richard-westwood]

On 8/18/2020 at 7:47 AM, richard-westwood said:

145 symphony 

Jawwaal    230 +2 

Lahore    230 +1 

Acclaim the nation 229 +1 

Jonah jones    226 +1 

Justanitherbottle 224 +1 

As youd expect any number of possibles in this race with others probably been trained to the minute for this race but top 3 are a couple of points clear and can currently get 19.0 on betfair on acclaim the nation and that's good value ( my tissue is 11 )...the 7/1 on jaawaal looks decent odds with bet365 ....I'd expect that to go so I'll take it 

Acclaim the nation 10pts win 19.0 betfair 

Jaawal 10pts win 7/1 bet365 

I'll update on Lahore later 

Update...I'll take the 14/1 with hills on Lahore 10pts win 

 

Well I knew that was a good price ....acclaim wins ...190pts returned 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.45 York - 1pt win Aricebo @ 15/2 Bet365

Has been threatening to win one of these lately having dropped a few pounds in the handicap to a handy mark. Was arguably unlucky behind Jawwaal a few starts back but is now weighted significantly better off with that one given its progressive profile and there's plenty to like about Aricebo's chances. Wasn't beaten far when staying on from the rear here a couple of starts back and the small field at Haydock didn't play to his strengths last time. Down the weights as a result, the slightly easier ground is no problem at all and might actually help him rein in the leaders towards the finish, so should go close.

2.15 York - 1pt e/w Spycatcher @ 18/1 Bet365

The Godolphin horse was impressive on debut but I wonder if a bit of ease in the ground is what it wants (should the ground race on the good to soft side) and with eight runners currently, will side with Karl Burke's runner at a healthy price. Ran a rock solid race on debut at Redcar in a decent race despite having a horrible start when stumbling badly and nearly unseating his rider. That cost him a good three lengths or so at the start but made up some good ground before just failing to find any extra in 4th. Was fairly easy to back that day and Burke's runners typically come on for their first outing. Any cut in the ground won't inconvenience, he's bred to enjoy the step up in trip and looks a lively outsider today.

2.45 York - 1pt e/w Pyledriver @ 11/1 Bet365

I backed Highland Chief two starts back and Mogul last time - both successfully - but today I'm siding with Pyledriver who I think has been ignored a bit here. Clearly Mogul wasn't fully fit at Ascot when beaten by Pyledriver but you couldn't argue with the way William Muir's runner got the job done that day, travelling powerfully and quickening clear like a good horse. I think you can essentially draw a line through the Derby - especially for this one who was hampered on the far side, raced in second last afterwards and from there, never had a chance. Stayed on okay up the straight despite clearly not being an ease on the track either and I think is more than capable of bouncing back with a big run today on a course that will suit and comes here fresher than most.

3.15 York - 2pts win Lord North @ 4/1 Bet365

I just wonder if today is the day that Ghaiyyath gets reined in - was always going to beat Anthony Van Dyke and Stradivarius a couple of starts back for me and Enable clearly needed the run behind him last time so I just wonder if race fit, top class horses can overcome him here. Magical and Rose of Kildare can keep him honest and it wouldn't surprise me if Kameko and Lord North were the ones to pounce - of the two, I like Lord North who couldn't have been more impressive at Ascot and still seems to be progressing. You can't knock his form this season, even when needing the run on his first start of the campaign and can just travel off the pace and power through late.

3.45 York - 2pts win Make My Day @ 4/1 Bet365

Is the favourite for this contest but remains fairly unexposed and I think the step up in trip can suit even further. Clearly has bags of stamina, opening his career over 1m4f before keeping on strongly to win over 1m6f at Goodwood. Outstayed good horses in Cape Cavalli and Caravan of Hope that day - both of which are now rated higher than what Make My Day runs off today. This one stayed on powerfully to win here last time over 1m4f, under pressure for a while but well on top at the finish. I think he's still well handicapped and the extra stamina test shouldn't inconvenience.

4.20 York - 2pts win Dancin Inthestreet @ 9/4 Bet365

Not much fun but I think wins today - has been a winner waiting to happen for a long time having been desperately unlucky in a couple of runs this season. Ran a blinder having found traffic at Royal Ascot, just got run out of it over further on soft ground having raced along two starts back and couldn't get involved in a group 3 when last seen. Back to 5f and a handicap today off a decent mark with a guaranteed decent pace to run off I think will take the world of beating.

4.50 York - 2pts win Pure Dreamer @ 9/2 Bet365

Might be the favourite for this but still is a decent price and I'm very sweet on his chances today. Ran in the good novice race won by Royal Scimitar, fading late on as if in need of the run on debut but even on the evidence of that, his opening mark of 72 looks more than fair and that's even excluding his excellent run behind the all-the-way winner Politics at Sandown last time over 5f. Travelled pretty well but was given plenty to do and couldn't reel in the winner for all he kept on very well late on without ever being hit with the whip and shaped like the extra furlong today was what he needs. Handicapping off 72 with conditions to suit, I think he'll take the world of beating.

Very well spotted with Pyledriver, let's hope you make my day in the 3.45 ?

[BillyHills]

On 8/18/2020 at 1:11 PM, BillyHills said:

1pt EW Soldiers Minute 20/1 bet365 2nd 22/1
1pt EW Copper Knight 18/1 bet365 Lost
 

 

On 8/18/2020 at 1:11 PM, BillyHills said:

1pt EW Makawee 18/1 Hills 3rd 33/1
1pt EW Summer Moon 18/1 Hills Won 18/1

4 EW Doubles @ SP  

16pts staked

Returns 126.13

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

 

16pts staked

Returns 126.13

Well done.  After Summer Moon won I was scratching my head because I knew someone mentioned it somewhere.  Obviously it was you. Hope you have a few beers this evening