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Darran

Racing Chat - Saturday 27th May

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Busy morning of Australian action with Caulfield and Rosehill my flat meetings of focus, but we also have 5 jumps races from Casterton so I have looked at them as well.

Caulfield R5 (5.10am)

I have put up Felicia before and hopefully she can gain a deserved win tomorrow. She has run well on all 4 starts so far this prep. The 3rd here two starts back over 1100m is strong form and then she was 2nd a couple of weeks ago over today's trip of 1200m at Moonee Valley. This looks a good race for her and Craig Williams gets on board for the first time as he bids to win the jockey's championship (ends at the end of next month).

Felicia @ 11/5 with Bet365

Caulfield R7 (6.30am)

I put up Alfa Oro when he won last time, a month ago, at Flemington. It was a really gutsy effort as well as he held off the challenge of the 2nd to make it 4 wins from 6 starts and the other two times he was 2nd. He is clearly very progressive and having won two handicaps at Pakenham at odds on it was good to see him progress to Metro level. He has a great draw in 5 and I think he can go in again.

Alfa Oro @ 6/4 with Bet365

Caulfield R8 (7.05am)

I am really keen on Harbour Views here. Again another horse I put up when he won last time and you may remember that I mentioned connections were hoping he would turn into a Cox Plate contender. He has won 6/9 starts and he had an excuse two starts back at Morphettville when he was found to have mucus in his lungs after the race. It was good to see him bounce in great style to win at Moonee Valley a couple of weeks ago and he proved he can stay 2000m. I don't really see any dangers although it will be interesting to see how South Pacific gets on in his first start in Australia. He was a Royal Ascot winner last year and was last seen in the Goodwood Cup. I'd imagine he will need this though and we know that Harbour Views is at peak fitness.

Harbour Views @ 23/20 with Bet365

Rosehill R3 (3.45am)

As I have mentioned we have jumps action at Casterton, but the best jumps horse in Australia is actually running on the flat in Sydney. Albaze's trainers have suggested he could go to the Melbourne Cup if he gets his rating up enough and I think he can win this to help that. He is a good horse on the flat as well and he landed the longest flat race in the country the Jericho Cup back in December and then followed that up with a win over 3000m at Moonee Valley in February. That proves he has the speed for this sort of trip as well as being able to stay the 5500m in the Grand Annual. This looks a pretty poor contest as well and the heavy conditions will also make it more of a stamina test anyway. I think he looks really hard to beat.

Ablaze @ 13/8 with Betfred

Rosehill R6 (5.30am)

Wu Gok was so tough when he won the Winter Cup last time. I thought he was beat, but he fought back really well to get up by a long head. I think he can win again though despite the fact other horses who have finished behind him the last twice are weighted to beat him. Just long last time he looks like he is going to get a soft lead and I think he will be hard to pass. He loves heavy ground which he gets again and I think he is overpriced. I also want to back Frankley Awesome who not surprisingly is a daughter of Frankel. She has been placed in a couple of G1's last year and has been getting fitter with each start this year. She ran really well here a couple of weeks ago when running on well from well back to finish 6th. Crucially she was on the wrong part of the track as the inside was like glue compared to the rest of the track and you can upgrade the performance. She also looks overpriced at double figures.

Wu Gok @ 11/2 with Bet365

Frankley Awesome @ 25/1 for the win and 11/2 for the place with Bet365

Rosehill R7 (6.10am)

I am going to give Trumbull another chance. He does seem to be a horse who always finds some sort of trouble and yet again last time he had no room until 150m where he finished 2nd. He just needs to be a bit quicker away from the stalls and to really help his cause. I do think though he will manage to get his head in front at some stage and this looks a good race for him to do so. 

Trumbull @ 6/1 with Betfair

Rosehill R8 (6.50am)

Another horse who was on the wrong part of the track here a couple of weeks ago was Night Of Power and he still ran well to finish 6th over a trip short of his best anyway. Up to 1500m will help a horse who has won over a range of trips from 1500m to 2400m. He was made favourite last time which was his 1st race of the prep so he was clearly fancied and his 2nd up form is much better than his 1st up form having won twice and finished 2nd once in 3 2nd up starts. 

Night Of Power @ 16/5 with Bet365

Casterton R1 (3.06am)

Little Phoenix is favourite for Div 1 of the maiden after a couple of decent trials, but I am going to go with the proven hurdle form of Stanley and Hierarchal. They finished 2nd and 3rd to Ventura Storm 11 days ago and that looks pretty good form in view. Both horses have good placed hurdles form now and I think the latter will improve for going on a quicker surface rather than the Heavy 10's he has been on the last twice. Holburt was a disappointing favourite 11 days ago, but should also improve for a better surface.

Stanley @ 4/1 with Betfair and Betfred

Hierarchal e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred N/R

Casterton R2 (3.41am)

I am taking the front two in the market here. Britannicus was disappointing last time, but clearly hated the Heavy 10 ground last time. His 2nd to Inayforhay is really good form and he won a BM64 on the flat in-between. This quicker ground should see him in a much better light. I am also going to back Steam Roller again. He fell 11 days ago when he was trying to get into contention, but they have changed the headgear on him and hopefully that will help wake his ideas up early on. The extra trip isn't going to do any harm either so he is worth having a saver on.

Britannicus @ 15/8 with Betfred

Steam Roller @ 100/30 with Betfred

Casterton R3 (4.16am)

I think Diamond Star Halo is the most likely winner, but he's priced up about right for me at 11/10. I think he has the best form in the race and I don't really like the 2nd favourite much. Coleridge finally broke his maiden tag last time, but he got an easy lead there and I am not sure it will be the case here. A couple of the bigger prices like Mystic Prince and The Hotz wouldn't be totally out of it either.

Casterton R4 (4.51am)

Steve Pateman trains half the field here and I think he can have the winner in Mapping. There was lots to like about his run 11 days ago at Ballarat when he was 4th in a maiden chase. Given it was a hot race and he was only 2nd up after a break, also ran in a flat race last month, it was a massive run because he also needs a few runs to get going. I must admit his 3rd up stats are only slightly better, but that run last time suggests he is further forward and he had very good form last year. Markwood is favourite and is always one to oppose for me as he is just one paced out in front. He was behind Mapping last as well and I don't think the form will be reversed. Referee was 3rd in that race, but I think Mapping can improve past him. I am also going to save on Pentelligentsia another Pateman runner. He ran well before being bought down at the last at Sale by Markwood. That was his first run since June 2018 so he should strip fitter here.

Mapping @ 9/2 with Bet365

Pentelligentsia @ 13/2 with Betfred

Casterton R5 (5.26am)

I really like Shamal here despite having top weight. I thought he ran really well when 1st up in the Australian Steeple a month ago. He finished 2nd that day and he should improve for the run. He had some good form in New Zealand and he deserves to be top of the weights. Elvision is at the other end of the handicap and although he won easily on his 1st chase start last time he did only have Markwood to beat and I am going with the proven class here. 

Shamal @ 4/1 with everyone

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Four shorties

1215 Nc: Tilsit 8/15 bet365
1230 Rd: Imperial Gloriana 6/4 bet365
425 NM: Pure Beauty 4/5 bet365
445 Cr: Sir Dragonet 5/4 betvictor 

15/1 Acca

 

Irish Derby
EW New York Girl 12/1 bet365


EW Yankee
435 Rd: Longroom 13/2 bet365
250 Rd: Star Shield 11/2 bet365
225 Nc: El Hombre 8/1 bet365
335 Nc: Rainbow Dreamer 17/2 bet365

 

Northumberland Plate Trends to follow 

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335 Newcastle

Northumberland Plate

Ratings

Screen Shot 2020-06-26 at 17.21.30.png

 

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2020-06-26 at 17.22.55.png

 

Trends
*Only last 4 seasons held on Tapeta

9/10 Aged 6 or under
8/10 Rated over 95
9/10 Ran within 60 days
9/10 Placed first 3 last time out
22/23 Had ran over 2m previously
17/23 Had won at 2m + previously
15/23 Drawn lower than 10

1pt EW Kings Advice 14/1 bet365
1pt EW Reshoun 20/1 bet365

 


 

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Saturdays all aged handicap selections

bit poor .... lots of races which had multiple qualifiers so I've left them out

Newc -

4.10 Mondain 5/1 and Contrebasse 7/1
4.40 Juniors Dream 6/4 and Irish Times 13/2

Ling -

7.30 Subliminal 14/1
8.00 Shiting Gold 7/4

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20 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Saturdays all aged handicap selections

bit poor .... lots of races which had multiple qualifiers so I've left them out

Newc -

4.10 Mondain 5/1 and Contrebasse 7/1
4.40 Juniors Dream 6/4 and Irish Times 13/2

Ling -

7.30 Subliminal 14/1
8.00 Shiting Gold 7/4

Hi Trotter - appreciate these handicap selections - if only we could all do your selection from the 8.00 at Lingfield ...

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Giving Sir Dragonet one last chance, race didn't really pan out for him as Ascot and the winner was gone by the time he got going. 4:45 Curragh 11/8 Coral.

*2 non runners so only 3 remain, so not my cup of tea any more. Odds on now, I've been able to lay Sir Dragonet to get my stake back, effectively leaving a small free bet even with the rule 4.*

Edited by yossa6133

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Northumberland Plate

Very, very  surprised but happy i can have 16/1 on COSMELLI e/w 1/5 6places ran a good 5th in this last year less weight today has a great chance of giving Kay Kellaway a big win here  and certainly looks a smashing e/w bet at 16/1. the other one i like is top weight MAGIC CIRCLE e/w  22/1 6 places also looks overpriced imo  first run for new trainer  so if Fahey has the horse primed for this which i think he will   i see this horse running a big race at  big odds. The other one i thought had a good chance but  i missed the 10's now to short for me e/w is Rainbow Dreamer jump trainers do well in these long flat races may just have a small win bet as  i feel i have got the e/w value in the 2  former horses above.

Best of luck all.

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Sha Tin on a Saturday 🤔

800 - Jade Fortune 17/2 betfair e/w

905 - Happy Sebring 3.0 place bet 365 2nd

1010 - Great Treasure 4.0 place bet 365 3rd

Small profit & a lie in this Sunday .

Saturday & Sunday at Newmarket see a total of 16 races including a Group 3 & 3 Listed races yet only 102 entries , pretty poor imo !

 

Edited by calva decoy

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6.15 curragh- TIATINUM  SKY 33/1 e/w 1/5 5p

1.15 nc- GABRAIL THE SAINtT 22/1 e/w  1/5  4p

2.25 nc - EL HOMBRE 10/1 e/w  1/5 4p

Plus a e/w Lucky 15 Tiatinium Sky- El Hombre-  Gunmetal (1.15 nc)- Cosmeli (3.35 nc)

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3 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Well done Darran , do you get up at silly o"clock & watch the races ?

No I record them on sky and watch them when I get up although the Hong Kong action got in the way this morning. If they aren’t on sky then I watch the replays via Racing.com which I can put on my tv via chromecast and watch then without looking at the result. I’d love to watch them live as the tv coverage is superb but obviously it would mess the body clock 

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18 minutes ago, Darran said:

No I record them on sky and watch them when I get up although the Hong Kong action got in the way this morning. If they aren’t on sky then I watch the replays via Racing.com which I can put on my tv via chromecast and watch then without looking at the result. I’d love to watch them live as the tv coverage is superb but obviously it would mess the body clock 

I really enjoy the Hong Kong racing albeit threw me this morning being on instead of a Sunday , I think 4-6 more meetings & season over , 1 good thing about lockdown , discovering some overseas racing I'd rudely turn my nose up too ! 🙄

Edited by calva decoy

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Todays handicaps - later races to follow -

Redcar                1.05    Dirchill                           4/1ew
Redcar                2.15    Abushamah                 10/1ew
Redcar                2.50    Dawaaleeb                    7/1ew
Redcar                4.35    Bashiba                       14/1ew
Newcastle           1.15    Treacherous                14/1ew
Newcastle           1.15    Concierge                    12/1ew
Newcastle           1.15    Staxton                          4/1ew
Newcastle           2.25    Cowboy Soldier           11/1ew
Newcastle           2.25    Outrage                       33/1ew
Newcastle           2.25    Encore D’Or                14/1ew
Newcastle           3.35    Carnwennan                 8/1ew
Newcastle           3.35    Anyonecanhaveitall     16/1ew
Newcastle           4.40    Deolali                         20/1ew
Newcastle           4.40    Great Colaci                  9/1ew
Newmarket         1.30    Blown By Wind             11/2ew
Newmarket         1.30    Arigato                            7/2
 

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Fascinating day of racing today; I think parental guidance is necessary with regard to stakes though.

No multiple bet again today.

1.15 Nc Staxton £1 win at 4/1
1.15 Nc Gabrial The Saint 50p win at 25/1
1.30 Nm Breath Of Air £2 at 3/1
1.30 Nm War Glory £1 win at 17/2
1.50 Nc Mubakker £2 win at 5/2 (possibly best bet of the day)
2.25 Nc Cowboy soldier 50p win at 11/1
2.40 Nm On The War Path £1 win at 15/2 (hard to believe that William Buick would have chosen the wrong horse)

Total single bet win stakes = £8.00

 
 

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and the later races -

Lingfield                5.25    Griggy                        11/2ew
Lingfield                5.25    Sword Exceed             8/1ew
Lingfield                5.55    Healing Power             9/4
Lingfield                5.55    Eljaddaaf                   10/1ew
Lingfield                7.30    Music Major               20/1ew
Lingfield                7.30    Subliminal                  14/1ew
Lingfield                8.00    Shifting Gold              15/8
Curragh                5.15    The King Of Kells       25/1ew
Curragh                5.15    Latin Five                   12/1ew
Curragh                6.15    Ice Cold In Alex           9/4
Curragh                6.15    Quizical                      22/1ew
Curragh                6.15    Verhoyen                    22/1ew

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1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

I really enjoy the Hong Kong racing albeit threw me this morning being on instead of a Sunday , I think 4-6 more meetings & season over , 1 good thing about lockdown , discovering some overseas racing I'd rudely turn my nose up too ! 🙄

My wife is Australian so I had decent knowledge of it anyway as I made sure I learnt how it all worked just in case we ever happened to move there, but just didn't have the time to bet on it every week with the other things I bet on. I will try and keep it up when they do return but will have to see how it pans out. The great thing is though that most horses race on a Saturday every 2-3 weeks so you can easily get a hold on the form. Jumps wise there are only about 90 races in a season so you have a fairly small pool of horses to work with and I think you get some great value as the favourites tend to be over bet because there isn't such a jumps focus in Australia. I had dabbled in jumps racing over there in the past, but just wish I had picked it up sooner and realised it could be something else to make a profit on without adding much to my normal punting workload.

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18 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Northumberland Plate

Very, very  surprised but happy i can have 16/1 on COSMELLI e/w 1/5 6places ran a good 5th in this last year less weight today has a great chance of giving Kay Kellaway a big win here  and certainly looks a smashing e/w bet at 16/1. 

Ran 4th but is one to keep a eye on imo. Traveled  well into the race ran on late just wish jockey had  of pressed the button a lot earlier would have went a lot closer imo.

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On 6/26/2020 at 6:55 PM, Trotter said:

Saturdays all aged handicap selections

bit poor .... lots of races which had multiple qualifiers so I've left them out

Newc -

4.10 Mondain 5/1 (WON)  and Contrebasse 7/1
4.40 Juniors Dream 6/4 and Irish Times 13/2

Ling -

7.30 Subliminal 14/1
8.00 Shiting Gold 7/4

Evens day today - staked 6.00, returned 6.00, P/L 0.00

running total- staked 122.00 P/L +2.51

 

 

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On 6/26/2020 at 6:44 PM, Striker said:

Though a maiden still I do think Fiscal Rules will run a big race tomorrow in the Irish Derby [7.15]

Each Way @ 8-1 [4 places] with Bet 365

5th!

Though not disgraced got the impression he did not stay at this stage of his development, and would drop the colt to 10 furlongs next time 

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Fascinating day of racing today; I think parental guidance is necessary with regard to stakes though.

No multiple bet again today.

1.15 Nc Staxton £1 win at 4/1
1.15 Nc Gabrial The Saint 50p win at 25/1
1.30 Nm Breath Of Air £2 at 3/1
1.30 Nm War Glory £1 win at 17/2
1.50 Nc Mubakker £2 win at 5/2 (possibly best bet of the day)
2.25 Nc Cowboy soldier 50p win at 11/1
2.40 Nm On The War Path £1 win at 15/2 (hard to believe that William Buick would have chosen the wrong horse)

Total single bet win stakes = £8.00

 
 

Well, a blank day for me.  My so called best bet of the day Mubakker finished stone last at 13/8F.  I can accept that the horse may not have had the class to win this race but this was such a lousy performance by it I can't believe that NO ONE even queried it!

Singles balance C/Fwd £359.23 (£400 Bank)

Multiples balance C/fwd £651.23 (£800) Bank

Although I didn't back it it was lovely to see Limato win the 2.40 at Newmarket for the second year running

 

 

 

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