Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunter

[Darran]

With the 1st hunter chases of the season coming yesterday at Fairyhouse I thought it was time to start this thread again. Having done this for the 1st time last season and it proving popular I will once again be updating those horses that are being aimed at the Foxhunter in March. It is one race that gets over looked when looking at Cheltenham and I always get asked questions about what horses are and aren't qualified for the race. So this is where I can keep everyone updated as to what is going on and my thoughts on the runners. Obviously any bets during the upcoming months will go here as well.

Given we have had just 3 points in the UK and the Irish season is in its early stages as well we have already seen plenty of horses hoping to line up at Cheltenham in March. Let's start with the Fairyhouse race from yesterday which featured It Came To Pass and Billaway, the first two home from last season. The former's trainer went on RacingTV before the race and said that the horse would improve a stone for the run, the ground was against him and that he is a better horse in the spring. It was no surprise he drifted in the betting and given all that I thought he ran really well as he got himself into contention before fading in the straight. As far as I am aware only William Hill have the race priced up and It Came To Pass is currently 12/1 2nd fav which seems a fair enough price to me as his run was full of promise. Billaway is currently the 8/1 market leader to reverse the form from last season. He travelled well up until just before they turned for home where he looked like he would drop out of contention, but he came back on the bridle and looked the winner until he made a right mess of the last. I'm not certain he would have won though as when he got to the winner on the run in he didn't get any closer and I think the winner had more in the tank. At this stage he is probably still the horse I would make favourite for the race as it was a promising return to action and he should still be progressive. Stand Up And Fight looked like he would be a possible winner of the Foxhunter a couple of years ago when he finished 6th in the race. Last season didn't go to plan though as he only managed to win a point over a banks course. It seems cross-country racing was going to be his thing this season, but after this win yesterday the trainer said he will stick to hunter chases now. First time blinkers might have done the trick and you would want to see them work again, but it was a personal best performance for me and if he builds on it then he will be a player come March. The 14/1 available is a fair price, but I would want to see a repeat performance before considering getting involved.

Staying in Ireland I have to mention a horse who was declared to run at Fairyhouse, but didn't turn up. Aloneamongmillions ended up running at Dromahane instead where he beat last year's 4th Staker Wallace by a very comfortable 3L. That performance clearly puts him in the Foxhunter picture and despite having only 7 runs he is already qualified. Interestingly the only time he hasn't won was when he made his debut and that came in the UK when he fell in a maiden that Road To Rome went on to win. Given what that one went on to do it would have been a fascinating contest if Aloneamongmillions had of stood up. In Ireland broke his maiden tag last month and then won 3 points last season, before winning a hunter chase at Gowran Park in pleasing style. After that race his trainer said he would be aimed at Cheltenham and clearly he has backed that up with his win on Sunday. He's 16/1 at the moment and is a fascinating contender at this stage. Staker Wallace himself is also 16/1 and having fancied him last season I wouldn't want to write him off just yet.

Onto what has been happening this side of the Irish sea. Because the pointing season was stopped last term when lockdown happened the current season started in October which given pointing has had to stop again because of lockdown was a very good move. We have also already seen 4 horses who could have serious Cheltenham claims. First to run was Maxwell's Foxhunter horse this season Jatiluwih at Bishops Court. The horse was very good over hurdles and he not surprisingly made a winning pointing debut under Will Biddick as his owner is currently injured. He clearly is a very good horse, but I wasn't impressed with his jumping and that will need to improve a lot before I even consider backing him for Cheltenham. Obviously there is scope for improvement on that front, but 14/1 wouldn't appeal on the basis of that run.

Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.

In the Ladies Open on the Bishops Court card I was much more impressed with Red Indian who beat a solid yardstick in Master Baker by 50L. He looks a readymade replacement for the yards Top Wood and he looks set to be an exciting horse this season. He isn't priced up by William Hill at the moment, but he should be. Like Jatiluwih it was a good move to get him out early to get the 1st qualifying run out of the way.

At Maisemore Wishing And Hoping ran out a comfortable winner of the Mixed Open for the Hazel Hill team. Some thought he should have been aimed at Cheltenham last season, but I though the Rowley's were right to take things more slowly with him as he looked like he needed a bit more experience. It was a solid win and he jumped well in making all. You would think he will be Cheltenham bound this season.

The last meeting before lockdown number 2 was at Kimble and the Mens Open there saw another very impressive performance from a horse making their pointing debut. Porlock Bay has come over from France and was backed in the market beforehand so was fancied to win and he ended up bolting up by 20L. The race was over 2m4f and he is unproven over further so we don't yet know if he will stay the Cheltenham trip. The plan seems to be to try him over 3m next time and we will know more then, but he looks a classy horse based on this performance. Hills have him priced up at 25/1.

Pointing in the UK is set to start again once we come out of lockdown and pointing in Ireland continues. I don't have the UK hunter chase dates yet, but usually Taunton in January is the first race of the season.

NB - In his Racing Post stable tour on 16/11 Paul Nicholls has stated that Bob And Co has had a wind op and Cat Tiger will be going hunter chasing.

[Darran]

It was great to see pointing in the UK back at the weekend and there were two divisions of the Mixed Open at Chaddesley Corbett which held plenty of interest as regards to the Cheltenham Foxhunter.

In the 1st division 2019 winner Hazel Hill made his seasonal return and his first run since losing at Wetherby to Minella Rocco. He was sent off the 1/3F, but he never looked like winning as he finished a 25L 2nd to Highway Jewel. Bradley Gibbs made all on the 6yo and built up a massive advantage with another rival before that one dropped away and no one else get anywhere near her. The winning time backed up the visual appearance that she wasn't exactly hanging around and it was impressive how she kept up the gallop. It could be argued that Alex Edwards misjudged things badly on the 2nd and you would imagine he wasn't fully tuned up for this, but I think the best horse won. Hazel Hill turns 13 next month and you have to wonder if he will even go to Cheltenham. The winner was sent off at 20/1 which wasn't a huge surprise as although she was 4/4 since coming over from Ireland the last two of those were in matches and the other two a Maiden and a Restricted. That was all in the 18/19 season as well so she hadn't run since May 2019 and you wouldn't have thought she would have been capable of beating a Foxhunter winner by 25L in such impressive fashion. She looks a very good horse and has proven she can handle good ground as well as testing ground. She hasn't qualified for Cheltenham yet and we have already seen some impressive horses this season, but I am actually going to recommend a bet on her at 66/1. I wouldn't usually get involved in the race at this stage, but I wasn't expecting to see her at such a big price as I would have her around 25/1 at this stage. Given Hazel Hill is 16s it is clear to me she is totally the wrong price.

It didn't get any better for the Rowley team as they had another 1/3F beaten in the 2nd division which was also won by a Bradley Gibbs trained/ridden runner. As mentioned in the 1st update Wishing And Hoping had made a winning return at Maisemore, but he was firmly put in his place here by Premier Magic. He made the running until 3 out when the winner took over and ended up scoring by 7L. He was only a 6/1 chance, but it was still surprising that he was able to beat Wishing And Hoping. That made his pointing record in the UK 3/7 and on his last start of last season he was all out to win a Restricted at Didmarton back in March. The 2nd did have a 7lbs penalty to carry, but you would think that with fitness onside he ought to have won this. I guess Cheltenham would still be the plan, but you would want to see him bounce back next time out.

Over in Ireland we saw last year's 4th Staker Wallace finish 2nd again this time to Dom Dolo. That one is rated 125 over hurdles and had fallen at the 1st on his seasonal return, but this was a good performance. Given Staker Wallace is 16/1 you would imagine connections of Dom Dolo will be thinking of Cheltenham although he isn't priced up yet.

This weekend we could well see Jatiluwih and Red Indian qualify for Cheltenham as they are both entered up this weekend. I will be back after the weekend to update on their efforts should they be back in action.

Highway Jewel 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 with Betfair

[Darran]

Needless to say I am looking forward to the Down Royal Hunter Chase this afternoon with Aloneamongmillions and Bilaway clashing. We will also get to see if Stand Up And Fight can back up his Fairyhouse win and David Christie has Winged Leader, on a recovery mission and Some Man as well. I wont be having a bet in the race myself and will update this after the race with my thoughts as well as reporting on what happened at Barbury and Alnwick at the weekend this side of the Irish seas.

[Darran]

Finally got time to update this and I will start with the Down Royal contest. Billaway was an impressive winner despite hitting a flat spot as he did at Fairyhouse. It was only brief though and he was soon back on the bridle. Not surprisingly he was cut into 5/1 on the back of the performance and as much as that doesn't appeal at the moment I think he is the right favourite. Last year I worried about the trip and this race is over just under 2m6f, but I think he stayed well enough last season and there is every chance he can improve. Winged Leader was back to his best after a disappointing run at Fairyhouse. Only William Hill have him in the betting at 16/1, but I'm not sure he would be capable of reversing the form. He is about to turn 7 and he could be one for 2022 rather than 2021. Aloneamongmillions looks a stayer to me as he stayed on again after getting out paced. I think 3m2f at Cheltenham will suit him a lot better than this contest and he still has the potential to be a big player in the Foxhunter. 20/1 with Betfair seems fair price at the moment. Stand Up And Fight was well beaten although he looks another who would prefer a longer trip.

Onto the last weekend of pointing before Christmas and Red Indian was a big market mover after qualifying for Cheltenham when winning the Ladies Open at Alnwick. He did it very easily and I can certainly understand why the big prices were taken. He's no bigger than 16/1 and given his two wins this season and his form under rules he would certainly be on one of my possible winners at this stage.

Although not currently in the betting the Mens Open winner on the card could well turn out to be a Cheltenham contender. Vinnie Lewis is a proven stayer and loves the mud. He has won the Southern National in the past in testing conditions. He had lost his way under rules for Harry Whittington last season, but he put in a really impressive performance on his debut for Chris Bealby. He won by 25L and clocked a slightly quicker time than Red Indian despite carrying 1st2lbs more. He still needs to qualify for Cheltenham, but he could well turn into a contender.

We also had Barbury on the same day and the Mixed Open was won by last seasons Foxhunter 6th Marcle Ridge. As he did at Cheltenham he made the running and ended up being an easy winner. I find it hard to think he can make the jump to actually being able to win the Foxhunter, but he is a horse you can see running well again. He is 100/1 with Betfair which does seem on the big side. A bigger story though was the poor run from Jatiluwih who ended up pulling up. He hadn't jumped well again and was struggling at about half way. It seemed like the run was too bad to be true and he was entered again next week at Chaddesley Corbett, but at this stage he makes no appeal whatsoever on his two pointing runs so far.

Sadly Chaddesley Corbett has been called off as there would have been Foxhunter clues to be had. There is a chance it could be the last meeting for a while as meetings can't be held in tier 4 or another full lockdown. It is also unknown if hunter chases will be able to start given amateur races were stopped during lockdown. Finally if points do go ahead any horse trained in tier can't run. This could be a nightmare for horses trying to qualify and I wonder if the BHA might have to relax the rules. I guess the other thing to consider is if Irish horses can't travel to Cheltenham. Hopefully that won't happen, but I don't think you can rule anything out at this stage.

[Darran]

Been a while since I updated this although that is mainly because there has been very little happening. Staker Wallace did win a maiden hunter chase with ease, but that wasn't a surprise given the quality of the opposition. I'm surprised bookies cut him in the market after that because he won as he should have done. At this stage I find it hard to see him improving on last year's 4th. One other bit of news is that Road To Rome is back having suffered a nasty injury in a point in 2019. He was 4th at Cheltenham behind Hazel Hill and obviously we don't know how good he is after the injury, but it is good to see him back at full fitness.

Obviously we have no idea what is going to happen regarding the Irish horses come Cheltenham, but I will say it will be a bit risky if you did back an Irish runner at the moment although you would like to think bookies would refund if they couldn't come because of Covid.

Today it was announced that pointing has been stopped in Ireland and on the back of pointing in the UK unlikely to be back before qualification ends, it means a lack of chances for horses to qualify. I think the BHA will change the qualification rules, but that is only me guessing and we could see some very competitive hunter chases with horses looking to qualify if they don't change the rules.

It was also announced today that hunter chases are allowed to continue in the UK, but no amateur riders will be allowed so the horses will have to be ridden by pros. Hopefully that can change in time for Cheltenham, but we could see a jockey win the Gold Cup and then win the Foxhunter as mad as that sounds. I'm not going to get into fact of if this is right or not, but I will say at least it means hunter chases can happen and if gives connections an outlet to run their horses. The first hunter chase is at Ludlow next Thursday and there are currently only 18 hunter chases scheduled before qualification ends. I can imagine we will see some big entry numbers and if we do hopefully we either see divisions allowed (they aren't currently) or we see extra races put on.

As per the last two year's my hunter chase previews will be on here again and fingers crossed we get a full season this time around and that it isn't too long before amateur jockey's are allowed back on a racecourse.

[Darran]

Looks like some more readers backed Highway Jewel this week as I have just noticed that her price has been cut with a few bookies again in the hours after I posted the last update. The good news is she is being aimed at the race although with no pointing qualifying has got harder now unless they change the rules. She would probably have one chance to actually do it which is always a worry. The one slight concern is if the trainer wants to ride her in the Foxhunter as the interview with him was pre the new rules. Speaking of which I found it interesting that Maxwell had no entries in the first hunter chase of the season at Ludlow on Thursday given he said in an interview that he was planning to ride in the race. I would have said that riding the winner of the Foxhunter is what he wants rather than own the winner and I just wonder if he might decide to not have anything in the race if he can't ride in it. Remember last year he said he would only run the horse that he was riding. I could be putting 2 + 2 together and coming up with 5, but if supporting one of his runners you would want to see him actually enter a horse in the hunter chases we get in the first week of February.

The Ludlow race looks pretty strong with Hazel Hill and Wishing And Hoping both entered. Joe O'Shea has entered 3 although Road To Rome is the only one not jocked up and Sam Twiston-Davies has been booked to ride Ravished. Chameron for Sam Loxton (Rose's husband Sam has taking over her licence since her sad death last year) and Marcle Ridge are other interesting potential runners with Cheltenham in mind.

[Darran]

The rules have been changed and I have also included the change to the Aintree Foxhunter as well. I'm glad there has been a change, but it horses still need to finish in the first 4 twice and I would have made it just one race to qualify. I can't help think that they will need to look at increasing the amount of races as well.

St James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase

Race conditions have up to now required horses to have either finished in the first two in a hunters’ steeple chase on two occasions or won two open point-to-point races, or one of each, within the previous two-and-a-half years.

A condition has been added for this year only to allow horses who finish in the first four on two occasions in a hunters’ steeple chase between 20 January – 1 March 2021 to qualify.

Horses who are already fully qualified do not need to re-qualify with the additional conditions. If a horse has had one run which qualifies, only one further run which qualifies is required.

Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase
 

Race conditions have up to now required horses to have either:

Finished in the first three in a hunters’ steeple chase on two occasions; or

Finished in the first three in a hunters’ steeple chase on one occasion and won either another steeple chase (hunter’s steeple chases included) or an open point-point race during the current point-to-point season

In the previous two-and-a half years.

A condition has been added for this year only to allow horses who finish in the first four on two occasions in a hunters’ steeple chase between 20 January – 22 March 2021 to qualify.

[Darran]

My thoughts on Ludlow copied from the race thread

Onto the winner and although he made slightly heavy work of it Hazel Hill did run out a comfortable winner in the end and the further they went the better he went. Martin Dixon on RacingTV reported that he looked fit in the parade ring and I would imagine that the Chaddesley Corbett run had improved his fitness. The fact he won though was a huge boost to my ante-post Cheltenham bet on Highway Jewel and it was not a surprise that she was also cut for Cheltenham as people began to cotton on that she was still 33s with Bet365. The 66/1 on her is looking very good right now although obviously she still needs to qualify and she is the right sort of price now (between 25/1 and 16/1). Hazel Hill ranges from 20/1 to 10/1 to regain his crown and as much as I can see him running well again I struggle to see him winning it again.

Ravished was not surprisingly the one who made the running and he gave it his all from the front. He clearly isn't going to win a Cheltenham Foxhunter, but Aintree would seem a much more sensible target. No doubt his trainer will still send him to Cheltenham regardless.

[Darran]

First of all I will still call the race the Foxhunter as it just makes sense for this season and everyone will still call it that anyway.

Secondly The Worlds End is being aimed at the race according to his trainer Olly Murphy. He has only had 5 starts over fences under rules and was pulled up in the 2019 RSA Chase. He is a duel Grade 1 winner over hurdles though so clearly a high class horse to be running in this race. His rating over fences though is 149 and that doesn't actually give him much of an advantage to start with as I reckon you need to run to at least 140 to win this. He has been put in as short as 12/1, but is 25/1 with William Hill and at this stage he would make little appeal to me. Horses of his profile don't tend to win this contest and chances are he has had his day in the spotlight which is why connections are targeting this race in the first place. I'd imagine we might see him at Warwick at the start of next month which will tell us more.

[Darran]

100/30 with William Hill is the biggest price you can now get about Billaway after he won the main prep race for the Irish runners at Naas for the 2nd year running. It was a very different performance to last year as the pace was genuine this time around and it was run on more testing ground. His jockey chose to go as wide as possible, but when the likes of Derek O'Connor and Jamie Codd chose to go on the inside you have to think that ground wise there can't have been much difference. Even so he clearly travelled further than every other horse in the race. He didn't always jump well and he hasn't always been foot perfect in the past although his trainer blamed the ground for it today. He also hit what has become his usual flat spot and going down the back once again he looked in trouble, but turning for home he was cruising once more and I thought he was going to hack up. It didn't turn out that way though as he had to work really hard for it especially after a small mistake at 2 out. I can certainly see why he is favourite, but I think we are basically looking at a similar horse to the one he was last season rather than one who has found much improvement. That could be enough to win, but when we haven't see what the British hunter chasers have to offer yet the price looks short enough at this stage. My other point about him though is that if he hits his flat spot at Cheltenham as you would expect him to, then he is likely to trade bigger in running than he is at the moment and that would be the time to back him because you would be fairly confident there will be a spell in the race where he will look beat and start to go backwards. Interestingly Ruby Walsh didn't think he had a lot left at the finish and didn't seem overly impressed with the performance. If he turns up at Cheltenham in March though then it would be surprising to see him not starting favourite.

Staker Wallace ran a hell of a race to finish 2nd, but it actually looks like he lost ground on the winner from the final fence to the line. To my eye there was about a length in it jumping the last and the winning margin was just over 2 come the line. I just find it hard to see how he can reverse this form and last year's Festival form with the winner, but he would have a place chance again as he does seem to have improved as the season has gone on. Solomn Grundy ran well to finish 3rd and was closer to the winner than at Down Royal last time, but again if he turns up at Cheltenham you wouldn't fancy him to win. 

On the face of it Alonealongmillions was disappointing, but he was found to be lame after the race so there was an excuse and hopefully he is OK. I just wonder though if connections will focus on the big Irish hunter chases at Fairyhouse and Punchestown now given he wouldn't seem to have an obvious chance of winning now and how tricky it is going to be to actually get a horse over to Cheltenham this year.

It Came To Pass was a non-runner in the end due to coughing and I am guessing connections will want to get a run into him before Cheltenham.

Hopefully we will see some of the leading British trained runners in the next few days with some strong entries at Warwick and Wincanton and if those don't happen then you would imagine Musselburgh and Wetherby on Saturday will benefit. Highway Jewel is entered in both contests which is good to see. If we see more races called off The Worlds End could struggle to actually get a run as he isn't guaranteed a run at either Warwick or Wincanton. Paul Nicholls looks like he is trying to qualify Sametegal who was 4th in the Veterans Final at Sandown at the start of January.

[Darran]

The below is taken from my reviews of the races.

We saw good horses in all 3 races, but no doubt in my mind that the Warwick contest on Wednesday was the best of them and I reckon that will be the best hunter chase we see this side of Cheltenham in the UK. To get a good race you want to see it run at a good pace and this contest certainly was which is another reason why I think the form is strong. Fair play to Latenightpass to win the race in the way he did on his first start for a year. He was up with the pace all the way and was in front from someway out. He was fairly keen as well, but he just kept finding and even pulled out a little bit extra when the 2nd got to him in the run to the line. He idled when he won at Cheltenham in May 2019 so it wasn't a new thing for him to do. It was clearly a personal best, but he has always been a horse his connections have held in high regard and he will be a player at Cheltenham for which Unibet go 25/1. Amazingly Bet365 don't even have him quoted.

If you have followed me in with backing Highway Jewel for Cheltenham then you have every right to be very excited about what she might do in a few weeks time. Granted we had a losing bet on the day where if she had been asked for a move a bit earlier I think she would have won. What also didn't help was that she was slow away and didn't jump the first too well. I think her jockey had in his mind that she only needed to finish 4th to qualify for Cheltenham and so made sure she got over the last couple of fences before trying to actually win the race. Whilst that is frustrating from the point of backing her to win the race, it also meant she wasn't bottomed with Cheltenham in mind. Warwick is a good jumping test so the fact she jumped pretty well on the whole was good to see and she should improve for that. She is still unexposed as well and I think as things stand she is the number 1 British contender.

I thought The Worlds End was given a sensible ride in that he stayed away from the hot pace, but he never really looked like he would get to the winner and then was over taken for 2nd on the run in. I was a bit surprised that Olly Murphy was considering skipping Cheltenham after that because it was a perfectly respectable run against two good horses. I guess the problem was always going to be fitting in two quick races to qualify, but in truth he should be able to do that fairly easily if they still wanted to go down that route. Ultimately he can only run in hunter chases now so to me they have nothing to lose although he would still be an unlikely winner for me.

This 3 pulled a long way clear of Marcle Ridge who of course finished 6th in the Foxhunter last year. Now I'm not for 1 second saying he ran up to that form and he will certainly prefer better ground, but to leave him well behind says plenty about what the other 3 achieved. I know one good judge has backed him for Cheltenham, but I just think he will struggle to see the trip out again and even on better ground I am not sure he will reverse the form.

Onto Wincanton where I thought Porlock Bay really ought to have won, but I suspect again the horse was there more to qualify for Cheltenham rather than actually win the race. For me we still don't really know if he stays because he was allowed to creep into a race which bar the winner was pretty uncompetitive. At Cheltenham he is going to have further to travel round a much tougher course and as good a horse as he is I just don't see how he can win at Cheltenham. If he were mine I would send him to Leicester for their big hunter chase in a months time over 2m6f and then it would be Aintree. He clearly has a lot of class though. He is 20/1 with Bet365 for Cheltenham, but as short as 14s with Betfred. I can see him being a horse that will drift on the day and actually might be worth a small value bet just in case he did see out the trip, but the price he currently is does not take that into account. 

If his jockey had been closer to Sametegal then I think he would have beaten in, but to be fair to the winner he did find plenty for pressure and he did deserve to get his head in front again. We know where we are with him and he always tends to run his race. We have to bare in mind though that he isn't the strongest stayer either and Paul Nicholls rightly is going to send him to Aintree rather than Cheltenham

[Darran]

Obviously nothing has happened on the racecourse this week, but I am going to have my 2nd bet of the race. In the opening post on this thread I wrote the following:

Maxwell has 3 other horses priced up. Shantou Flyer has surely had his best chance of winning the race so he looks short at 16s. I haven't seen anything about Cat Tiger going hunter chasing and he is at 20/1. Bob And Co is also 20/1 but however much the Racing Post's Tom Collins thinks he is a Cheltenham Foxhunter contender I would be amazed if he turned up at Cheltenham and Aintree will be is race. We also know that Maxwell will only run one in the race based on what he said before this year's renewal so something would need to happen to Jatiluwih for any other these to run.

I have changed my mind on Bob And Co and he is going to be the 2nd bet at 25/1 with Bet365 although the 20s available elsewhere is more than fair as well. In Saturday's Racing Post Paul Nicholls has said that Bob And Co will be running at Cheltenham and if Maxwell is allowed to ride he will be riding him. Now clearly is other horses in the market are either unlikely to qualify or are going elsewhere. Shantou Flyer is going to the Kim Muir, Cat Tiger hasn't run yet so would be pushing getting two runs in now and Jatiluwih disappointed at Barbury and it looks like his plans have been put on hold as he hasn't been entered in any hunter chase yet. 

So why do I think Bob And Co might stay the trip whereas I was doubtful before? While there are two reasons. 1st of all he has had a wind op and that should see him see the trip out better. Clearly it will still be a doubt and the Fontwell race he won wasn't run at a strong pace, but we know he is a horse of class and he was given the highest rating of any horse to run in a hunter chase or point last season and that obviously includes It Came To Pass and Billaway. Nicholls was telling him to go to Aintree with the horse last year, but it I find it really interesting that he now thinks he is capable of having a big chance at Cheltenham. I suspect he will have a prep at some point and he was entered in the Scottish Foxhunter last week. The 2nd reason I think he is a bet at the price is that Maxwell won't be on top. Now it would be great to see him win the race and it wouldn't be a total disaster if he did ride him as the horse did settle much better for him at Bangor and Fontwell than he did at Warwick, but it would be daft to say that his chance doesn't improve if Harry Cobden ends up riding him. There is no way he goes off a 25/1 chance on the day and if he bolts up somewhere beforehand then even better. The fact he is currently the biggest price of the Maxwell owned runners listed also tells us we are currently getting good value and for me the slight unknown about if he will stay the trip in this contest is more than factored into the current price. Given his trainer thinks he has improved that is pretty scary for the rest of the opposition.

Bob and Co 1pt e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

Copied from the Haydock review.

Apart from the fact there was scope for improvement in the jumping department, that was more than we could have hoped for with Bob And Co with Cheltenham in mind. As he showed last year he clearly has a serious engine and he looked to have plenty up his sleeve. I think Wishing And Hoping has run his best race of the season and he's not got close to him. I suspect once The Worlds End was beaten his jockey eased up on him so he didn't have a hard race (impossible to tell as he's out of shot for most of the straight), but even so he's miles back in 3rd and Ravished has ended up pulling up. That means that the horse who Hazel Hill beat at Ludlow hasn't even completed and the horse who was 3rd to Highway Jewel and Latenightpass has been hammered. Obviously his jumping could have been better, but he never really looked like falling. He jumped some really well and the mistakes and jumping out to his left clearly didn't stop him. What I was happy to see was that he settled well and there was no repeat of his Warwick antics. He also proved he doesn't have to lead. This is clearly the best hunter chase performance we have seen this season and in my view he should be favourite. I think he's a better horse than Billaway and I really do think he wins at Cheltenham. His price ranges from 6/1-8/1 and I think that is on the large side.

[Darran]

Thursday saw the last hunter chase in Ireland before Cheltenham at Thurles and it was won by a horse who isn't qualified. Jury Duty is likely to run in the Cross-Country at the Festival.

Winged Leader was giving him a good race before coming down at the last. He is as short as 20/1 for Cheltenham, but he's been beaten twice by Billaway this season now and it is hard to see him reversing the form. Stand Up And Fight has beaten Billaway this season and bounced back well here to finish 2nd. His price ranges from 14/1-20/1 and that seems about right for me at this stage. 

The other horse to mention of course is last year's winner It Came To Pass. It was surprising to see him put in as 2/1 favourite given his trainer had said it was just being used as a prep run and that he hates heavy ground. He duly drifted out to an SP of 6/1. His jockey made no real effort to get involved in the race and I thought he had been pulled up at some stage. It came as a big surprise to find out he actually made a bad mistake at 3 out and unseated his jockey. It was out of shot of the pictures and the commentator had also failed to spot it. It is worth remembering that he pulled up in a point on his last start before winning last year so the fact he didn't finish doesn't concern me especially given how little effort was made by the jockey. The bookies weren't really fooled either as he is still as short as 8/1 although you can get 14s with Bet365. I still think that he has to go on any shortlist to win the race.

At Doncaster on Wednesday I thought Law Of Gold ran a nice race to finish 3rd. The ground wasn't ideal and he travelled well into the race before tiring late on. That wasn't a surprise given it was his first run of the season and 33/1 is probably on the large side given how well he did in the race last year. Having said that I am not sure he would be good enough to win it though. The winner Silsol isn't in the betting and his trainer does have Porlock Bay in the race, but we know he stays well and I can understand if connections did send him to Cheltenham.

[Darran]

Entries well down from usual this year as only 25 have entered and sadly Highway Jewel was not among them. That's a big disappointment and I have been told the reason is that the trainer forgot to enter her. I suspect we might find out more in due course.

I think the reason why entries are down is because we don't really have any social runners entered this year. With amateurs not allowed to ride and owners not allowed to go I would imagine some of those outsiders who might have entered haven't. The Rowley's have 3 entered and they have usually only run one, but I wonder if they will run all 3 this year. I suspect there won't be very many actually not bother turning up on the day unless they pick up an injury so hopefully we still get a big field.

My next update will be my thoughts on the 25 runners which now home schooling is coming to an end and there are only 2 hunter chases next week should be able to go up early next week.

[Darran]

Paul Nicholls has said in a Cheltenham preview night that Cobden will ride Chameron and that he had the choice between him and Bob And Co. Initially I was very surprised by that as Bob And Co has a much better chance, but I think the fact that Cobden used to be one of the owners of Chameron and the fact he probably wanted to be loyal to the trainer is likely to be the reason why he has made the decision he has. Needless to say I think he has chosen wrong and I am still confident Bob And Co is the most likely winner of the race.