Bang on
-
Posts
819 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
10
Posts posted by Bang on
-
-
September running total = + 25.96 pts
Strange how it works, but despite it being a Saturday, there are no qualifiers today.
Monthly figures show 23 winners from 46 selections, giving the profit figure above.
-
2.45 Ayr - Dandalla - 11/2 Lads / Corals
-
A good day yesterday, making September + 26.96 pts. Stats for the month so far are 23 winners from 45 selections.
Just 1 qualifier today.
Todays selection - bet365 B.O.G.
2.55 Newbury - Bolthole - 5/2 ... lost
Very poor run, no real excuse.
September now = + 25.96 pts
- yossa6133, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 1 other
-
4
-
3.35 Ayr - Bringitonboris - 5/1 W.Hills
-
September running total = + 22.96 pts
Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.
2.40 Yar - Mighty Ulysses - 2/1 ... WON 9/4
3.15 Yar - Pleasant Man - 9/4 ... WON 11/4
6.30 Chelm - Inveigle - 3/1 ... lost
2 winners, 1 losers. A profit of + 4 pts on the day.
September now = + 26.96 pts
- LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden, MCLARKE and 1 other
-
4
-
18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.
I can see the logic, I see more and more trainers trying to at least get a double up these days. Probably because it can be a struggle to get on and doubles help the payout.
Saturday was also a good day for me, but the 1 let me down curse happened again. 5 selections, 4 winners (in trebles and an acca), and the last 1 (Line of Descent - 700 mile round trip - and odds on fav in the end) let me down. 2k instead of 7k.
-
1.40 Yar - Millenial Moon - 7/4 - 365, Hills, Power
-
September running total = + 19.21 pts
A disappointing start to the week so far, and 1 of todays selections is at Sandown which has the going described as SOFT which I don't like. Currently on a losing run of 4 and with monthly figures of 19 winners from 39 selections, it is operating close to last months figures.
Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.
1.40 Yar - Millenial Moon - 13/8 ... WON 2/1
4.05 Sand - Flying West - 7/2 ... lost 2nd
6.00 Kelso - Cool Country - 7/2... NR7.00 Kelso - Midnight Shuffle - 11/4 ... WON
2 winners, 1 loser and a non runner. A profit on the day of + 3.75 pts.
September total now = + 22.96 pts
- The Equaliser, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 2 others
-
4
-
1
-
2.05 Font - Grey Flint - 10/1 most firms
Big fan of Kim Bailey who has a rare runner at Fontwell (2 from 8 last 5 years).
-
September running total = + 21.21 pts
Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.
1.10 Red - Macon Belle - 3/1 ... lost
2.55 Yar - Percys Lad - 9/2 .. lost
Both ran like stink today, ground could be a factor but probably not good enough.
This makes 19 winners from 39 selections, just under 50% which is similar to last month. September now = +19.21 pts
-
1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY
3.30 Bri Hooves Like Jagger 4/2 Alt (3) 13/2
1.30 Thsk Woodlands Charm 9/2 Alt (2) 15/2
2.00 Thsk Manumission 5/2 DTR Alt (5) 15/2
2.30 Thsk Bartzella 1/4 DTR Alt No Bet
3.05 Thsk Hesperis 11/8 DTR Alt (3) 7/2
3.40 Thsk Lady Rockstar Evens Alt (3) 10/1
1.15 Worc Head On 9/5 DTR Alt (1) 13/2
1.45 Worc Regaby 4/1 Alt (7) 3/1
2.20 Worc Jemima 7/4 DTR Alt (4) 5/1
2.50 Worc Bathiva 9/4 Alt (4) 9/4
3.25 Worc Fifrelet 6/5 Alt (6) 15/4
4.45 Km Buxted Reel 9/4 Alt (3) 9/4
5.45 Km Dark Terms 7/2 Alt (4) 8/1
8.15 Km Urban Forest 9/2 Alt (2) 7/2
It will be interesting to see how the jumps compares with their flat alternatives with these selections
14 selections from 30 races = about 47% no doubt influenced by jumps racing today
Are these the '3 Tipster' bets ? Is one the Racing Post Rating top rated ?
-
September running total = + 21.96 pts
Quite a busy day for a Monday, with a few selections.
Todays selections - bet365 - B.O.G.
1.45 Worc - Write it Down - 11/4 ... lost 3rd
2.40 Bri - Zain Nibras - 9/4 ... WON
4.25 Bri - Yanifer - 7/4 ... lost 2nd
7.15 Kemp - Cry Havoc - 10/3 ... lost
1 winner, 3 losers, and a small 0.75 pt loss.
September now = + 21.21 pts
-
4.30 Bath - Ginger Jam - 2/1 Lads
-
September running total = + 22.96 pts
Not sure why, but you would expect more bets on a Saturday, yet my method has thrown up just 2. I am not going to put 1 of them up as it is at Chester, one of my least favourite race courses, and the going is described as SOFT, so I personally won't be backing it. This leaves just the 1 selection.
Todays selection - bet365 B.O.G.
5.05 Muss - Beltane - 11/8 ... lost
- Wildgarden, The Equaliser, MCLARKE and 1 other
-
4
-
52 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Certain trainers at certain courses I look for especially with sole runners on a card .
I'm a bit weird really ?
Yes, especially if they have travelled a fair distance with a sole runner.
AS for the wierd bit... aren't we all ? ?
- MCLARKE and calva decoy
-
2
-
14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Interesting thread, looking at your recent impressive results what you are doing is obviously working for you.
Personally I am not looking for winners but rather what is good value.
That is why one of my main criteria is badly drawn horses, they tend to offer good value. Also the form of horses that were badly drawn last time might look worse than it actually was.
Some of my other criteria include :-
Ignore horses that are wearing headgear, it's maybe a sign that they are unreliable.
Ignore horses that are carrying a lot of weight, these may have been raised to a level where it is difficult for them to win.
I prefer horses running over a shorter distance than the last run.
I don't like horses that won last time.
I do like horses that have had a recent run (less than 9 days ago). I don't like horses that ran 9 to 15 days ago.
I don't like CD winners.
I prefer females to males (horses not jockeys!).
I prefer horses 5 or younger.
I don't like 7lb claimers.
I don't like beaten favourites.
I don't like betting at 25/1 or above.
The criteria may vary depending on the race conditions that I am looking at.
Some interesting points.
' I prefer horses running over shorter' - I agree, most would go for the horse 'upped in distance', but I have found more winners dropping in distance.
'I don't like horses that won last time' - I don't mind, but NOT 11 form (especially in handicaps)
'CD winners' - year in, year out, they only win 13% of races (although sometimes more than 1 in a race), the exception to this IMO are certain courses that have their own strange configurations/quirks etc. Southwell fibresand was one of them.
7lb claimers - they are raw novices and make plenty of mistakes, ** one of the reasons I don't like apprentice races.
BF - have a 20% strike rate so treat with caution. ** personally I try to avoid odds on favs in general, too many get beat.
25/1 or above - unless it is plainly wrong, or you know something others don't.
-
September running total = + 22.96 pts
Today my selection method throws up 3 selections. although 2 are at Chester, which due to the constant turning is one of my least favourite courses.
Todays selections - all bet365 B.O.G.
4.00 Chester - Aegis Power - 2/1 ... lost
4.20 Donc - Sea la Rosa - 2/1 ... WON
4.30 Chester - State of Bliss - 7/4 ... lost
1 winner, 2 losers and a break even day. Why is Chester one of my least favourite courses ? TBF the going changed from Good when I put the bets up, to Soft when they ran, not ideal.
September running total remains + 22.96 pts
-
Thought I would start a new thread to discuss what everyone looks for when trying to find winners. For myself, I have made plenty of mistakes in the past, and still make plenty of mistakes now. I am not quite where I want to be yet, but I do make money from betting and don't mind discussing/sharing thoughts with others.
So what are the variables ? What do I look for ?
Going - always plays a part. I will rarely bet on Heavy or Soft going. If it doesn't say 'GOOD' somewhere in there I usually leave well alone.
Form - the best recent form figures are a good 'guide' to a horses wellbeing, and are a good starting point. The downside is that it is normally factored into the price.
Recent run - most horses will run better with a recent run, it gives them the 'race fitness' as opposed to having just galloped at home. Obviously there are exceptions as some seem to run better when 'fresh'. ** My advice (for what it's worth) is especially during the jumps season, horses that have been off for a year (or longer) will have had some sort of problem. The trainer will regularly have them 'superfit' so as not to break down again, and there can be some nice prices.
Jockeys - the top jockeys seem to always get on the best horses. The downside is that again it is factored into the price. Try and note jockeys who take their chance when it is given... also those who don't to avoid.
Trainers - trainers in form have plenty of winners, keep an eye on trainers coming into and going out of form. I especially look at 'new trainers' as most seem to try and get a win on the board as quickly as possible.
Race types - handicaps or non-handicaps . Personally I rarely bet in selling, claiming, or non-pro jockey races ( Amateur, Apprentice, Lady, Gentleman, etc).
Horse aids - blinkers, cheekpieces, visors .. especially 1st time.
Weight - don't worry about weight in sprints, although in a 3 mile chase it can have an effect.
There are many more variables to consider, it can become mind boggling. Try to keep it as simple as possible, try not to overthink things. You can find winners in so many different ways. What do I do ? I get the Racing Post and spend an hour or 2 marking the paper with all sorts of information that I think works for me, Different coloured pens, highlighters etc. If you don't have that time, use what works best for you.
Good luck with your punting, I hope I haven't muddied the waters. This forum is a good place to improve your punting. Far better to learn from each other than try and go solo.
I would love to hear other peoples thoughts on finding winners.
- Offramp, peanut peanut, gbettle and 4 others
-
7
-
September running total = + 21.96 pts
After a busy day yesterday, my selection process has thrown up just the 1 selection today. Another race put up 2 possibles so rather than put up 2 in a race I am leaving them out.
Todays selection - bet365 B.O.G.
3.35 Chep - Dirty old town - 11/8 ... WON Ev
With a couple of non runners because of a going change, we have to take the S.P. of Evens. Another winner though and a profit.
September total now = + 22.96 pts
-
1.40 Donc - Gnat Alley 9/2 bet365
I expect this to run much better, for me it wasn't at the races last time but could have won.
-
10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS
B/Fwd - 9.67 points Sep
1.45 Don Modern Games 2/1 steady and much touted in the sporting press Alt (9) 16/5
3.05 Utxx Dal Horrrisgle 5/2 DTR Alt (7) BH 6/1
4.10 Uttx Jimmy the Digger 1/1 (8/11 last night) Alt (7) 4/1 (was 11/2 last night)
3.15 Carl Tribal Art 10/11 DTR steady Alt (3) 2/1 (was 5/2 last night)
3.50 Carl Arranamore 6/4 (2/1 last night) Alt (4) 15/8
4.05 Cork Trevaunance 15/8 (was 11/4 last night) Alt (7) 8/1
4.35 Cork Allesandro Algardi 5/4 steady Alt (16) 10/3
5.05 Cork Ecoutez 13/8 Alt (3) 9/4 (10/3 last night)
5.15 Wolv sovereign Prince Evens (8/11 last night) Alt (7) 7/2
5.50 Wolv Serenity Evens (8/11 last night) Alt (12) 4/1 (8/1 last night)
6.20 Wolv Imperial Eight 9/4 (5/4 last night) Alt (1) 9/4 Nb Money for Velocity (SO) 7/4 Fav now
6.50 Wolv Nadein 11/10 steady Alt (1) 11/2 (was 9/2 last night)
12 Selections, 38 races = 31.5%
The only one that wasn't the 'paper fav' was Trevaunance, which won at 2/1. All of the others were favs. Don't know if there's anything in that.
-
Looks like a busy day today. September running total = +19.46 pts
Todays selections - all Bet365 B.O.G.
3.40 Uttox - Young Wolf - 5/2 ... lost
4.00 Donc - Khaadem - 6/4 ... WON
4.10 Uttox - Sizing at Midnight - 4/1 ... lost 2nd
5.15 Wolv - Space Cowboy - 7/2 ... WON 4/1
6.50 Wolv - Al Kout - 9/2 ... lost
2 winners, 3 losers (all ran well enough), giving a profit on the day of + 2.5 pts
September running total now = + 21.96 pts
-
A good day yesterday meaning that the September running total = + 18.46 pts
Todays selections - all Bet365 B.O.G.
1.30 Catt - Mews House - 13/8 ... lost 2nd
4.15 Wind - Hello Me - 2/1 ... WON
1 winner , 1 loser, but still a profit. September total now = +19.46 pts
- LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden, The Equaliser and 4 others
-
6
-
1
-
2.00 Bri - Olivia Mary 10/3 generally
Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Forgive my ignorance, but what is AE ? And how is it calculated ?