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Bang on

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Posts posted by Bang on

    Selection Process

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Most systems will use the same information, LTO placing, days since a run, etc etc. Nothing wrong with that as an aid, but the masses use them and it can reduce the price making it difficult to make a profit. I would say that most 'systems', if followed to the letter, will fail over time.... especially if the 'formula' is shared and becomes public knowledge, as this leads to more people finding the selections and the average win price to reduce, making it unviable. 

    My National Hunt system ( I recommend different systems/methods for different disciplines) is  still going strong after a good period of time. The very 1st rule is different to any other system I have seen ( and I have seen hundreds). As an example, this month, September, not a busy month for the Jumps, has seen 21 selections, of which 13 have won, at an average price of around 7/2, and a +41pts return to level stakes. This is quite exceptional, even for this system, but it does make good profits regularly. I may start a thread next month for these, as I always post after my bets have been placed.

    Not all of my bets come from systems, some are found by following trainers in good form (winners not just running to form), an example was my NAP yesterday, a Gillian Boanas runner, a small stable who have had a few winners recently at very good prices (mostly double figs). SMALL STABLES in FORM are definitely worth a look. 

    Championship Predictions > Sep 28th & 29th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

    Why Derby? Seems like Reading have improved and Derby's only recent win was against Stoke when they probably should have lost. I was tempted to back Reading!

    Derby are only at the bottom because of a points deduction.

    They are at HOME, and have not lost at home ( 1-3-0 ). Reading when playing away are ( 1-0-3 ) scoring 5 and conceding 10 on their travels. It is all about what you look for, different opinions, I try to have the percentages in my favour. Personally, I WON'T be having a bet on the game.

    Racing Chat - Monday 27th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    September running total = + 19.16 pts

    A bit of a dilemma today. My selection process has thrown up a selection, and in the same race I have had a message for another horse. In order to keep my selection process honest, I will post the selection, and also mention the messaged horse (as I have backed it).

    Todays selection - bet365 B.O.G.

    5.30 Newcastle - Chichen Itza - 6/4

    ( The messaged horse is 'Hooked on you' 6/1 of Karl Burke's who I like with 2 year olds - I have backed Each Way )

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Don't know if you have any back stats, but have you tried a price cap ? Around 80% winners will be single fig odds, with most of the rest double fig but very few triple fig (100/1 +).

    I realise you might miss 'the big one', but my experience (for what it's worth ) would suggest around 25/1 - 33/1 as a cap.

    There could be something in this but just trying to help.

    Racing Chat Friday 24th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    September running total = + 20.91 pts

    Seem to be missing the target recently and taking small losses. Quite busy with 4 selections today.

    Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.

    3.50 York - Captain Cooper - 4/1 ... lost

    4.02 Worc - Pagero - 9/4 ... WON

    5.25 York - Topanticipation - 2/1 ... lost

    7.00 Newc - Hostelry - 3/1 ... lost

    Another frustrating day. September now = + 20.16 pts

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 22nd September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    September running total = + 23.21 pts

    A small loss yesterday and we seem to be stuck in a rut. Just like all good things, all bad things have to come to an end. 

    Todays selections - bet365  B.O.G.

    2.17 Good - Some Nightmare - 6/4 ... WON

    2.35 Redcar - Dr Rio - 5/2 ... lost

    2.52 Good - King Vega - 5/2 ... lost

    1 winner, 2 losers. September now + 22.71 pts

    Are the OR and RPRs an accurate representation of how good a horse is?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    I am currently devising a new system whereby I consider different factors of giving a horse my own rating.

    At the minute I have it set up to include the OR and RPR, but I'm wondering if these are accurate?  Don't some trainers and jockeys send their horses out knowing full well they wont win the race, just to manipulate the OR and RPR?

    Of course, that's the nature of the game. Gradually get the horse fully fit and ready, whilst all the time trying to get the handicap mark down. That makes the 'Official Rating' redundant at times, although I'm sure it counts for much more in the valuable handicaps and Group races.

    As for RPR ratings, the racing post ratings are a 'help' but are only someones opinion.  For FACTS, check out the NAPS competition in the R.Post, RPR is in the bottom 7 of 52 tipsters. As for ALL races this year, they are currently showing a 26% strike rate, despite tipping 46% favourites. Treat with caution Alex.

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