Bang on

Now that I know how the ELO ratings work, I have added them to my own selection process (1st attempt) to see if I can get ratings that do not rely upon opinion, bias. Top rated (using 4 different ratings) come out as follows. (365 odds for ease of posting) Birmingham (away) - (80pts) - 4/11 .. look the weekends Banker. Bolton (Home) - (76pts) - 17/20 Barnsley (Home) - (71pts) - 9/10 Doncaster (away) - (71pts) - Ev MK Dons (away) - 69pts) - 15/8 ------------------------------------------------- Others with good + ratings at decent prices are ... Burnley (away) - 6/4 Sheff Wed (Home) -Ev Wycombe (away) - 31/20 Port Vale (Home) - 4/5 *** This is a 1st attempt at rating using this formula so won't be going mad. *** Top teams (especially Premier) look quite good, but I am looking to find the strong but not so obvious with better odds.

Thanks for the information about how scores are calculated, it gives a better insight into the figures, and I may be able to use them now instead of not really understanding how they worked.

A 1-0 win does the job, will be placing the 'profit' from the bet onto a short priced treble. Tottenham, Leeds, , Celtic .. pays around 11/10 There looks to be plenty of 'good things' on this weeks coupon, but these look the strongest to me.

The price has tightened up on Watford tonight (generally around 4/6 from 4/5), but they look a solid start to the weekend. Although their form looks nothing special, at HOME they are 5 - 1 - 0 with a GD 11 - 4 . Opponents Oxford are yet to win away ( 2 draws, 4 defeats). I've had a bet for tomorrows stake money.

Nations league not really of interest to me, a bit like friendlies. League 2 WIMBLEDON, BARROW, GILLINGHAM - treble pays 3.95/1 with boost with 365. ( All 3 are at home to the bottom 3 teams in the league) Wimbledon - look mid table but have played 3 fewer games - still 9 places above Carlisle and 11 goals better off. Barrow - 3rd in table at home to bottom of table Morecambe , and 12 goals better off. Gillingham - 2nd in table at home to 2nd bottom Accrington, and 16 goals better off. * goals better off means GD for home team at home + GD for away team away from home.

2.25 Donc - Aberama Gold - currently 14/1 - 5 places Lads, Corals, + 11/1 - 6 places with 365. Happy to see that @richard-westwood has it top rated. It was on my tracker, and is 9lb below his last winning mark. He is 0 from 10 this year but this could be the day, if you excuse a poor run in this last year, his record at Doncaster otherwise reads - 122321 - so looks to be a course that he runs very well at, and he 51k prize may encourage a bolder show.

Listen from 6.50 Thousands of bets ?

Quiet weekend, with very little league football, and not really a Nations league fan. Just 1 double Wrexham v Shrewsbury - Shrewsbury picked up their first league points last week with a home win over bottom of the table Leyton Orient. This will be much tougher away at Wrexham who have continued their upward curve and sit second in the league at this early stage. They score plenty and should win to go top of the league today. Sutton Utd v Boston Utd - Boston are finding it tough after getting promoted to the national league. Sutton have started well enough after dropping down, and should have too much for Boston who look destined to struggle. Double pays 1.14/1

A.Villa - Won 2-1, Leeds - Won 2-0 = WON + 1.48 Bolton - lost 0-2, Man City - Won 3-1 = lost -1 Napoli - Won 2-1, Barcelona - Won 7-0, B.Munich - Won 2-0 = WON + 1.22 Chelsea - draw 1-1, Celtic - Won 3-0 = lost -1 2 winners and 2 losers, disappointing Chelsea being a goal in front and then drawing, but another small profit of + 0.7 - a small profit is better than no profit. - + 5.63pts for the season. ( 6 winners from 9 bets).

I've gone for 3 doubles and a treble this weekend. Aston Villa + Leeds United - 1.48/1 - Villa look good these days and should hopefully have enough to beat Leicester who I expect to struggle. Leeds are fairly solid without being spectacular but should claim the points at home to Hull who seem to struggle up front a little. Bolton + Man City - 1.05/1 - Bolton are off to a steady start, but home form should see them nearer the top than bottom, and playing Exeter who I expect to be nearer the bottom gives them an opportunity to move up the table. Man City are off to a perfect start and can extend it away at West Ham. European - Napoli + Barcelona + Bayern Munich - 1.22/1 - Napoli look to be going places and are strengthening their squad, should be too good at home to Parma. Barcelona should take care of Valladolid at home, and Bayern Munich should be much too good for Freiburg at home. Sunday - Chelsea + Celtic - 1.64/1 - I think Chelsea are finally getting back to being a force, and at home to Crystal Palace can notch another win. Celtic are at home to Rangers in the 1st Old Firm Derby of the season, I'm not sure Rangers have progressed enough, and Celtic have enough firepower to win this at home.

QPR 1-1 and Middlesborough 2-2 both drawing - lost Fulham 2-1, Tottenham 4-0, Man City 4-1 - WON 1 winner from the 2 bets (4/5 for the season so far) - and a bit more profit +0.76 - (Seasons profit/loss so far = +4.93pts )

QPR v Plymouth ( 12.30 K.O.) - QPR came from 2 down to get a draw at Sheffield United last weekend, playing at home to Plymouth looks like an easier task as I see Plymouth as relegation candidates under Wayne Rooney. Middlesborough v Portsmouth - Middlesborough, should be in and around the playoffs in my view, and Portsmouth may find the Championship tough at times in their first year back, with added home advantage, and a very long journey at that, I take M'Boro to win Double pays 1.46/1 ----------------------------------- Fulham v Leicester - Fulham can be very good on their day, and are a solid Premier League team nowadays, Leicester managed to come back and earn a draw at home to Tottenham, but may find this away trip beyond them and they could struggle. Tottenham v Everton - Tottenham are another team who can be red hot or bang average, but home advantage can be the difference, especially as Everton seem to be in more than just financial difficulty. They look no better than last season and look sure to struggle again. Man City v Ipswich - Man City just to 'boost' ( very slightly) the returns. I like the Ipswich attitude of always looking to score, but this may be the wrong team to try that against. Treble pays 1.76/1

Not a fan of the Racing League but One from my tracker. 8.15 Newc - Aberama Gold EW - best 17/2 with Hills, others 8/1, 15/2 - all paying 1/5th 4 places. Ran well enough the last twice ( could have done better IMO if pushed ). Runs off 89 today and has won from as high as 101. Trainer does well here ( 2nd top trainer with runners today), and at the price looks a solid EW bet with a more than fair chance of a win.

If the bookies shout about a bet they are offering, they will have done their homework and it will be in their favour. Personally, I try to restrict myself to the occasional single, mainly doubles, and the occasional treble. I use mainly doubles as I try to get better than evens. Even with a safe and steady approach, you can still hit a bad run. When I first started on football 'SERIOUSLY' , I bet mainly singles, now I bet mainly doubles as I like slightly better returns. A few seasons back I started with a £400 bank, divided into 20 pts (£20 per bet), and by the end of the season the bank stood at just over £4,000 (£200 per bet). I took some profits to spend and waited for the next season, it wasn't quite so dramatic profit wise, and that's when I switched to doing mainly doubles. No guarantees, but slow profits are better than no profits. Compounding makes the difference if you can hold your nerve.

Burnley - Won 5-0 Sheffield United - 2-2 ( paid out because went 2-0 in front = Won) --------------- Arsenal - Won 2-0 Newcastle - Won 1-0 ---------------- A good start to the season so far, 1 bet last weekend (won), 2 bets this weekend (both won). + 4.17pts L.S.

I've gone for 2 x doubles this weekend. BURNLEY v Cardiff - Burnley started the season well with a 4-1 win away at Luton. They should be a force once again in the Championship. Cardiff suffered a defeat at home to Sunderland, and won't be wanting to play Burnley as they could find themselves near the bottom of a very early table. SHEFFIELD UNITED v QPR - put last seasons problems behind them with a solid 2-0 win away at Preston ( who were fairly solid at home last season). They made a full 11 changes for the midweek cup game but still came out comfortable winners, and hopefully will continue the winning streak. QPR were beaten at home to West Brom on the opening day, and just like Cardiff, may not want to be facing a team relegated from the Premier League. The double pays a best 1.7/1 ( just short of 7/4) with Hills. -------------------- ARSENAL v Wolves - I'm taking Arsenal to get off to a flyer against Wolves, if they want to be champions they need to start the season off running. NEWCASTLE v Southampton - Newcastle are progressing nicely under Eddie Howe, although many in the media expect it to falter. Not me ( I live with a Geordie), as I think that they can at least consolidate their 7th place finish last season. Southampton having just returned to the top flight via the play offs won't be looking forward to the longest journey they will make on the opening day of the season, and could be in for a busy afternoon. The double pays a best 0.67/1 ( 4/6) again with Hills. It is very early days in the season, but hopefully we can chip away and make some small gains.

Not sure that I will be playing on the midweek EFL Cup games, some clubs tend to play the fringe players this early on. Pretty sure @CakeCakeCake that Chris Wilder (Sheff Utd) will be 'changing the team' that won at Preston last weekend. The squad is limited in depth and they are still trying to sign new players, this gives plenty of the academy kids a chance to get 1st team game time tonight. I won't be betting until I know the teams starting 11. The EFL Cup is not the Blades main priority.

Doncaster WON 4-1 Sheff Wed WON 4-0 Nice to get off to a winning start to the season with 2 comfortable winners.

Have had a double - pays 7/4 + (1.8/1). DONCASTER v Accrington - Doncaster finished last season with a string of victories, propelling them from down near the bottom into the play offs, where they lost out. They should have some confidence after that, and have signed Billy Sharp who knows how to score goals despite getting on a bit now. Accrington look weak to me, and could struggle, especially after losing 3 of their top 4 scorers from last season. SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY v Plymouth (Sunday) - Just like Doncaster, Wednesday started badly, but finished much better under their new manager who steered them to safety on the last day of the season. I don't think Wednesday will be up at the top, but look sure to do better than Plymouth, and the home advantage should get them off to a winning start.

Playing tonight. 6.10 Muss - Invincible Annice - 9/2 generally ( has been bigger). A 6 runner Nursery, and Karl Burke's only runner on the card. He is in decent form (7wins, 12 placed, from 45 runners last 2 weeks). He also has a 26% SR at the course. Not the biggest fan of Nursery races so just small stakes for me. 6.45 Muss - Rock Melody - 5/1 Hills ( 9/2 elsewhere). A 2 x CD winner who didn't get the best of runs 10 days ago, so a small field should help with that. * Again small stakes as Paul Mulrennan usually rides (he is not at the track today). 8.05 Bath - Flying Secret - 5/2 365, Hills. Has become better handicapped ( down 10lbs in 6 runs), wears 1st time blinkers and drops back in trip. Trainer does well here and is a fair bet for me.

4th at 9/1 so a small profit on stakes. Strange sort of race as was out the back most of the way in a valuable race, should win soon and still on my tracker.

Just like @calva decoy I'm not a fan of the racing league, but 1 came up on my tracker that I can't ignore. 8.45 Wolv - Aberama Gold 8/1 EW (365 1/5 4 places) - becoming very well handicapped, and for me could have won LTO. Hit a hot spell around this time last year and has won off higher marks. 4 places is enough for me to have a decent EW bet.

Nailed it.

Football needs to be more combined rather than individual leagues. The bookmakers offer UK football all in one place, and as most people will pick selections from different divisions, having them all in one place would hopefully work better and encourage people to put their bets up on the forum.

9.00 Bev - Cakewalk - 5/2 (Hills) - Just 3 runs, and now tries a handicap for the 1st time. Trainer Simon Crisford sends just this 1 runner to Beverley where he has a 38% strike rate ( 3 winners from 8 runners ) in the last 5 years. Not shown much yet but may find improvement in a handicap 1st time.