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Bang on

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Posts posted by Bang on

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Darran said:

    I think the other thing to note is why a horse has shortened in the first place. My tip yesterday shortened after I tipped it and it could just have been a case that everyone who wanted to back it was on in the morning. Maybe people were laying it come race time as they were only looking at its rules form. I think quite a few of these horses that shorten the night before or in the morning are because a tipster has put them up and therefore come race time if the general public want to be with something else then it will drift back out. Nothing sinister about that at all. I think the go to thought with gambles or drifters are connections either fancy them or don’t fancy them and yes that will be true in some cases, but often it won’t be.

    Yes, tipsters like pricewise in the Racing Post have strong followings and can move the market. I have to agree that certain trainers (no names) have runners that drift alarmingly and run like stink. This works in our favour though as we can usually eliminate a few from consideration.

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    This is an interesting subject. How important is the fact that the odds shorten or lengthen. I don't have a lot of data to back this up but I have a feeling I would be better off waiting until nearer the off and then only backing those selections that have shortened in price.

    As an example I had 2 potential selections for today's nap in the same race, the 4.40 at Catterick. Overnight COVER NAME was 4/5 and ENTWHISTLE was 5/2. I selected the shortest priced horse, COVER NAME.

    On the day COVER NAME drifted from 4/5 to 11/8 and ENTWHISTLE shortened from 5/2 to 6/4. ENTWHISTLE won easily.

    I suspect that there are factors that can only be determined when the horse can be seen, i.e. does the horse look fit / unfit, dull, green, frightened etc.

    Market moves/drifts play a part in my selection process regularly. I can tell you, money usually talks, but beware of the short ones.

    I used to find winners far more easily pre-lockdown and BEFORE THE BOOKMAKER MADE PRICES . The on course market was much more informative. I struggled for a while just to break even until I noticed certain bookmaker 'tricks' as I call them. They know that people watch the market, and IMO manipulate the market to draw people in. A good example today was 

    7.15 Wolv - Twilight Secret - forecast at 2/1 in Racing Post .. moved to 8/11 by 11.00am (That is a 25% move - absolutely MASSIVE) . I NEVER trust moves as big as that, and I would never back odds on, it just isn't worth it in the long run. Let them run (and occasionally win), but see how many get beat.

    My best bet today (on this thread ) was

    7.35 Yar - Oakenshield - forecast 20/1 in RP.. available at 7/1 (11.00am) -won ... in a double with 8.05 -Portelet - F/c 7/2 in RP ..available at 5/2 (11.00am) - won at 3-1 (drifted... bonus)

    Champions League Predictions > Jul 13th & 14th

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    I have put Alashkert (4.00 kick off) in a treble . According to R.Post the temperature is expected to reach the mid 30's by kick off, and I expect the Welsh outfit to struggle with the heat.

    I have put the selection with Dundee Utd and Motherwell (Scottish league cup group games), as they are Scottish Premier teams taking on lower league opposition. The treble pays around 1.33/1 (11/8 ish).

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    I have done 3 x EW doubles

    1. 2.10 Ling - Russian Rumour (7/1) - lost, and 7.45 Wolv - Countessa (11/4) - lost ... LOST

    2. 4.30 Ling - Kodiac Attack (11/4) - WON 3-1, and 5.00 Yar - Natural Colour (15/8) - 3rd 4-1 .... small profit with EW

    3. 7.35 Yar - Oakenshield (7/1) - WON 11-2, and 8.05 Yar - Portelet Bay (5/2) - WON 3-1 .... 31/1 double (BOG) + EW profit

    looking for alerts service to hire

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    On 6/6/2021 at 12:41 AM, moneymakerdude said:

    hey all

    i m wondering if there is a service to send alerts when there is value for in play games

    i.e. when the handicap is too high or the underdog is leading or anything :)

     

     

    i m interesting in any sport

     

    cheers

    I wouldn't expect so as anyone running one would take all the 'value' for themselves.

    There are alerts for football, a goal has been scored etc so that you could look at the new price available to 'green up' . Personally I don't use in play as it is fraught with dangers. I know the people who use drones at horse racing to good effect, then there is court siding in tennis, but for me .. I leave it alone.

    Racing Chat - Friday 9th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Trixie - all prices are B365 BOG

    2.50 Ascot - Garden Paradise - (5/2) - Stable in hot form (5/14 last 2 weeks) and top of my ratings.

    6.15 Chepstow - Bellevarde - (13/8) - Top of hcp (which I like), CD winner, top of my ratings.

    8.30 Chester - Lincoln Park - (11/8) - Top of hcp, Trainer Dascmbe likes Chester, top of my ratings.

     

    * Also had a word for 1.15 Nmkt - Ehraz (around 4/1) .. was 10/1 last night when I received the selection. Personally wouldn't go too mad on an unraced horse in a 14 runner 2yo maiden.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    When a horse drifts is this a warning sign?

    I haven't done a lot of analysis but on a system I use for short priced favourites those horses that drifted showed a loss at SP, those that shortened showed a profit.

    If they are backed, and then drift later seems ok. Just drifting is a big negative for me judged on results (always exceptions of course).

    Racing Chat - Saturday 1st May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    2.35 Good - Kimifive - 1pt @ 6/1 ... 3rd 8-1

    3.05 Uttox - Reserve Tank - 1pt @ 6/1 ... L

    3.15 Thirsk - Sunset Bay - 2pts @ 2/1 ... 2nd 3-1

    3.45 Good - Three Platoon - 2pts @ 3/1 ... 3rd 2-1

    6.55 Hex - Speak of the Devil - 1pt @ 4/1 ... 2nd 10-3

    7.40 Donc - Ship of the Fen - 1pt @ 11/4 ... WON

    7.55 Hex - Mill Race King - 1pt @ 10/3

     

    9pts staked (100pt bank - Max = 5pts)

    Racing Chat Monday 15th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    Not overly keen on Lingfield Jumpers Bumpers, and Warwick looks difficult, so just left with Wolverhampton AW.

    WOLV :

    4.25 - True Hero 11/8 365 - David Browns horse has been well backed, I am a fan of the trainer whose horses tend to run a few good races when in form and this one won LTO.... 2nd 5-4 (beaten HD)

    4.55 -   Parallel World 9/2 PP - Another well backed Karl Burke runner, I do like his when backed. Trainer is in good form (6 win 5 placed last 19 runners). .... lost

    5.30 - Nate the Great 9/4 - Listed/group placed in the past, this is easier, is running well enough and should go close. Trainer is doing ok ( 2 wins 2 placed last 9 runners) .... WON 5-2

    6.00 - Michele Strogoff 5/2 - 3 time CD winner, dropping down the weights. ... lost

    6.30 - Power of States 9/4 Hills - tricky race with a few reopposing, just favour Hugo Palmers runner (BF LTO). Trainer is (3 wins 1 placed last 5 runners) .... WON 7-4

    7.00 - Looks a match between the big 2 - Sammarr and New Exceed - might take a chance on C.Appleby's New Exceed 9/4. Trainer is (3 wins 1 placed last 4 runners) and won this race last year. ... lost 2nd 9-2

    7.30 - A tricky little race - the least exposed Praise of Shadows has been backed into 10/3, and may be the answer after having wind surgery and Ben Curtis riding.

     

    Racibg Chat Saturday 13th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    LINGFIELD :

    3.10 - Stopnsearch 15/8 - went close when fav last time, trainer in decent form (1 win 2 placed from last 5) .... 3rd 2-1

    3.45 - Garth Rockett 5/2 - CD winner, is there a trainer in better form ? (6 wins 1 placed from last 8 runners) ... 2nd 11-4

    WOLV :

    5.15  - Soyounique 7/4 - BF last time, trainer who seems to be making a mark recently although only had 1 runner last fortnight.... lost

    6.15 - Omany Amber 5/2 - don't usually do selling races, but this has been backed and Karl Burke (5 wins 5 placed last 18 runners) knows the time of day when backing them..... WON 10-3

    A lot of small fields and shorter prices today.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

    I.e if a race 

    180 

    178

    176

     

    In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??

    Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????

    I presume that you are talking about the higher class races rather than all non-hcps. As they are all carrying the same weight (unless penalties, weight for age etc) it seems wise to focus on the top 4 or 5 rated.

     

    How someone gets to become "good loser" ?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    The key is the amount of points you use for your bank (no matter how big or small your monetary bank). If you use a 10pt bank, 6 losers will stress you out badly and then you will make bad decisions. If you use a 100pt bank and have the same 6 losers, it doesn't seem so stressful. 

    IF you are on the right track with your selections, you won't worry or stress yourself out about a losing run... they are bound to happen. They wiil come to an end.

    I have learnt a lot from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, they say that on many days they do NOTHING.... just waiting for the right opportunity to get involved. They watch pitch after pitch go by... and then hit the one in the sweet spot.

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