Bang on
-
Posts
791 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
10
Posts posted by Bang on
-
-
-
@LEE-GRAYS , I have followed this thread, and even added a few more filters when using myself. I no longer follow the UNSEATED selections (I have some far more profitable and much higher strike rate methods) but the filters I used are as follows.
Very Simple -
Minimum 5 runners
Forecast single figure odds in Racing Post - minimum 2/1 forecast
That's it.
---------------
January - 6/27 +15.75pts @s.p.
February - 4/18 +10.5pts @s.p.
March (up to 10th - stopped using) -3/7 +2.37pts @s.p.
Total -13 winners from 52 selections (25%) giving +28.62pts @ s.p.
--------------------------
As I say, I no longer use it as I have other methods, but as you started this, thought I would give you something to think over regards price restrictions.
- Craig bluenose and MCLARKE
-
2
-
17 hours ago, gbettle said:
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-03-31 13:30 Warwick Jefferys Cross 1.89 1 2022-03-31 14:30 Naas Take Tea 2.1 2 2022-03-31 15:05 Naas Goven 1.72 5 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00 Month bets outlay return profit 3 30 600 587.83 -12.17 
Not sure how you determine your selections @gbettle ,but have you ever thought of just doing the top 2 (of however you rate) selections in a double ? With 20 pts staked on a double rather than a 5pt trixie, could it prove more profitable ?
You are currently running at 8.5% on turnover (better than a bank), but just wondered (as I always do) if you could squeeze a bit more out of it.
Anyway, well done on making a profit over 8 months.
- gbettle, MCLARKE and The Equaliser
-
3
-
1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
Trends for the Coral Cup (2.50)
Not in the top 8 in the weights, 3 from 142.
Age 5 or 6, 2 from 91. This reduces the field to 6, THE BOSSES OSCAR, ASHDALE BOB, COMMANDER OF FLEET,
MCFABULOUS, HANG IN THEREand THE SHUNTER.Nothing else stands out as a trend so probably worth having an each way punt with BET365 offering 7 places.
2 non runners reduced to 4,
50/1 winner !!! and 14/1 3rd ... Looked too competitive for a bet, but well done @MCLARKE
- Villa Chris, LEE-GRAYS and MCLARKE
-
3
-
Had a very small stakes EW trixie. All prices Bet365 B.O.G.
2.25 Sand - Lucky One - 13/2 (1/5 6 places)
4.30 Ayr - Paddy the Panda - 9/2 (1/5 3 places)
5.21 Here - Greenrock Abbey - 7/1 (1/5 3 places)
May be back with some more later.
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
-
2
-
I've had a 'small' EW bet on
4.05 Muss - Sambezi - 9/1 Bet365 B.O.G. Each Way (1/5, 4 places)
Trainer Oliver Signy is 'knocking on the door' ( 3 placed from just 4 runners last 2 weeks). He takes this 1 horse on a 740 mile round trip. Tried chasing and it didn't work out, reverts back to hurdling today. Top Jockey Gavin Sheehan is booked for his only ride of the day. At 9/1 with 4 places (11 run), it is a value EW selection.
-
I've had a small bet in the
3.37 Kemp - Kittys Light - Each Way - 20/1 (1/5th 4 places with Bet365 B.O.G) - 2nd
Top jockey Brian Hughes rides for Christian Williams (3 wins , 1 place, from 12 runners last 2 weeks). The trainer does have 3 in the race (all with a chance), but with good prize money for places, I am going for Top jock, trainer in form, at a fair price for Each Way.
- MCLARKE and Wildgarden
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, The Scientist said:
Copper Mountain is now doubtful for the Southwell 7.30 but still in the 7.00.
I'd have like to have seen him run in both. Folk underestimate horses these days.
Some horses are NEVER fit. The only way to get them spot on is to run them quickly twice. Could COPPER MOUNTAIN be one.of those?
Never know now
In my Racing Post he is a NON RUNNER 7.30
-
A short price selection for me with one of my least fav jockeys !!
3.10 Ling - Chrysos - (5/4 P.Power - 11/10 B.O.G. 365) - WON
Jame Spencer's only ride of the day, Trainer Kevin Ryan does a 520 mile round trip.Cost 315K as a2yo, has had 1 run travelling well before a tame finish.
- The Equaliser, LEE-GRAYS, The Brigadier and 1 other
-
3
-
1
-
-
29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I did a lot of analysis on recent trainer form and struggled to find a winning angle, the problem as usual is that it is often highlighted by the media so there is a danger that they become overbet.
Just 5 runners but, it is a tricky race.
Torpillo - down in class
Somekindofstar - Won LTO
Desque De L'isle
Darebin - Gary Moore also in good form
Douglas Talking - trainer has travelled on an 850 mile round trip
-
1.45 Sand - Desque De L'isle - 11/4 Bet365 B.O.G.
Venetia Williams is in great form at the moment (12 wins, 10 placed from 40 runners last 2 weeks), she runs 5 today with IMO her best 2 chances at Sandown. I backed the selection LTO but it never really got into the race and was the beaten Fav. Hopefully will do much better this time. The top weight (Torpillo) is easing in class but but fingers crossed the VW stable bags another winner.
- Wildgarden and MCLARKE
-
2
-
13 hours ago, MattA147 said:
Hi there, hope everyone is good.
I know a lot of experienced punters that can recognise a certain type of horse such as a Grand National horse or a Gold Cup horse (not necessarily winning those races but runs in those sorts of races and is aimed at them) by how it’s campaigned as well as the key races and type of form that show that a horse is heading for the given race.
How can I begin to learn or figure this out and the key races/type of form in the calendar for a given race? Or the look/type of form for the high class races?
I hope this made sense and any help would be greatly appreciated.
Many thanks
Some trainers will mention in the racing post that race X is the long term target. Generally the bigger owners and higher profile trainers will be the ones aiming at the festivals.
However , some trainers target races at their local/favourite track, the Racing post again provide details in a yearly book giving the stats for all trainers which could be studied.
If you are looking to just predict winners, watching races will be a big help. Also remember, every horse is on a training cycle, usually about 16 weeks from start to a winning finish, walking, trotting, cantering, and fast work. During this time they may run the horse and get beat, this often lowers the handicap mark for when it is 'fully tuned up'. This is how horses often 'reverse form' with a rival, they may be on different parts of their training cycle. Without inside knowledge we often have to use 'guess work' and recent form. I often look for trainers hitting form, especially the smaller stables, as they will work all of their horses together. The bigger stables may just be working one barn and not all of them will be on the same cycle.
- gbettle, harrisman, alexcaruso808 and 1 other
-
4
-
20 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
p/l
out £120 in £123,43
I have been following these BUT put a price restriction on, So far in 2022 it is 9/34 and +30pts at s.p.
-
Difficult to nail my colours to the mast today with Ayr and Lingfield both described as HEAVY going. So I've gone with 2 speculative runners on the All Weather at Newcastle, both good prices so betting Each Way. All prices are Bet365 B.O.G. 1/5th 3 places.
5.15 Newc - Mister Falsetto - 12/1 ( £5 Each Way ) - 3rd (+£7)
Trainer Julie Camacho's only runner today, she is in very good form (2 wins , 3 placed, from just 6 runners in last 2 weeks). Has raced twice without winning, but has been gelded and is running over a furlong extra than its previous 2 runs.
6.15 Newc - Gowanbuster - 18/1 ( £5 Each Way ) - lost - went from the front, clear for 5 and half furlongs before fading/easing - looked as if it won't be long before winning again.
Trainer Susan Corbett is in good form ( 3 winners from 6 runners in the last 2 weeks). 2nd run after a wind operation (has been off 144 days), has won 3 times at this course (CD x 2) but has lost its way, hopefully with trainer in form can show some of its old form which would give it a chance (Fav for race is in same ownership - different trainer).
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
-
1
-
1
-
I've done an EACH WAY trixie today, all Bet365 prices B.O.G.
2.30 Ayr - Broomfields Kan - 9/2 - 2nd 11/1
2.45 Ling - Glancing Glory - 11/4 - lost
7.45 Newc - Broctune Red - 9/2 - 2nd
-
I have done a small stakes trixie, - all prices Bet365 B.O.G.
2.40 Catt - First Impression - 5/2 - lost 2nd 5/2
5.30 Wolv - The First Hurrah - 3/1 - lost
8.30 Wolv - El Bello - 2/1 - WON 5/2
-
4.40 Plump - Gaot - 3/1 Bet365 B.O.G. (they do go 1/5 4 places - I also have it in an EW double)
Has won in France, but is yet to win in Britain. Being a J.P.McManus horse it will surely win soon. Trainer Harry Fry is in average form at the moment, but does have an excellent 41% strike rate at Plumpton. He runs 2 today and this looks his best chance. There are a couple of dangers IMO (Bolt and Brown - Gay Kelleway was on the cold list but had a winner last week, however it is exposed enough to be taken on - The other is Rubys Reward - very low weight and Anthony Honeyball is in very good form 5 wins from 16 runners) I am going with the selection at a fair price.
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
-
2
-
6.30 Newc - Rathbone - 11/4 Bet365 B.O.G. - lost - Ran well enough to a point, eased when beaten.
Trainer Kevin Ryan is fairly quiet for a big stable (1 win, 1 place from just 6 runners last 2 weeks). The selection hasn't run for 111 days so fitness taken on trust, however is 1lb lower than he won off last year, and Kevin Stott (one of the top northern based jockeys) rides as his only ride of the meeting. The price has been bigger but still fair in the context of this race.
- The Equaliser, MCLARKE and Wildgarden
-
2
-
1
-
13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
RESULTS UPDATE
Very interesting that quite a number of my RPR/Timeform rated horses showed up as @richard-westwoodselections too. What was even more interesting was when I looked back at the RPR's for a couple of other horses that I was interested in today. My nap selection was Elhafei in the 5.30 at Southwell. The RP gave the horse a rating of 80 and although Soaring Star had the same rating it was the RPR rating selection. Checking back I could see that Elhafei was 74 and previously 66. Soaring Star's previous ratings were 78 & 77 i.e they were higher than Elhafei. I know that @Trotteronce pointed out how the RP get these ratings but I can't remember what he wrote. Anyway, it seems to me in hindsight that Soaring Star was the most consistent horse and that I was wrong to choose Elhafei. What was more striking was the 8.00 at Southwell. Ubahha was rated as 72 and 10 points clear of Won Love on 62. When I looked back at the RPR's, Ubahha previous two RPR's were 52 twice. Its best RPR on the All Weather was 69. It had been running very disappointingly and how its RPR got to a lofty 72 is beyond me. Whilst, of course Richard's ratings are based upon a different method(s) to Timeform and RPR I will certainly be looking back at the RPR's that have been achieved in the past rather than just accepting the new rating that has popped up from the Racing Post. What may be beneficial to @richard-westwoodand @Wildgardenis that no matter how glowing the today's rating that they have for a runner if that horse has not been running well and is inconsistent then just leave it out of today's betting. Of course they maybe they may be doing this already in which case the suggestion is not relevant.
I would have backed Schalke at 6/1 but not 9/2 which was the best price I could get this morning. It is still early days for me with regard to this type of bet so whether I would back all four or just the horses that look to be best is something that I am still considering
No great loss today, just 2.50 points which leaves me on -27.98 MTD and -101.00 YTD
I'm sure I've pointed out the RP Ratings before. The TOP rated are running at 29% even with almost half of them being FAV's (Just blindly backing favourites would be doing better). In the Racing Post daily NAPS table they are already showing -25pts.
A loss of over 100pts begs the question, what size bank do you use ?
- Wildgarden and MCLARKE
-
2
-
5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
I would have backed Schalke at 6/1. Should have gone for BSP and hoped for the best
I'm not happy at all with today's runners. I have napped Elhafei in the 5.30 at Sou but haven't backed it
It's very quiet on here today, you can almost here the creditors walking about
There are 2 threads.
-
A trixie today. All prices are Bet365 B.O.G.
1.50 Font - The Flying Sofa - 4/1 - lost
3.00 Font - High Stakes Player - 7/2 - lost
7.30 Wolv - Seven Pockets - 13/8 - WON
- Budgie 65 and The Equaliser
-
2
-
16 minutes ago, gbettle said:
Not from today; Betfair Exchange - Change of Minimum Stake to £1 - from 7th February 2022
A sign of how Paddy Poor have messed it up.
Racing Chat- Saturday 2nd April
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Pricewise has put up Kittys Light and One more Fleurie.