Bang on
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Posts posted by Bang on
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11 minutes ago, Alastair said:
I think the current problem with low attendances is down partly to people getting out of the habit of going racing after lockdown but more to do with entrance fees and the cost of food and drink on course which make it too expensive a day out at the moment for people facing rising prices.
@Alastair I agree,
Not to mention the fact that many racecourses now no longer accept CASH.... Cash has always been King on the racecourse.
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@Quartu SE The Green Man
My R.P. says "His early RPR's bring him into it, but he was down the field in a 7f newmarkethandicap on his return from a break, having raced freely(gelded beforehand); all runs so far over 7f.
However, I do agree that the 'expert opinion' needs to be just that and not just someone who ticks a box. They do seem to ignore the hardcore racing fan in favour of 'inclusivity'. How is racing not inclusive? I much prefer At the races when Jason Weaver or someone similar is talking about their 'paddock pick'. Many of the others are simply after timers telling you how they looked so good in the paddock after it has won.
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
Of interest EACH WAY - wouldn't advise any big bets on these but is something I am following (does get some nice winners and places). EACH WAY terms may vary with bookmakers and sometimes extra places apply.
3.28 Bev - Soul Seeker - 25/1 - is running from 6lbs lower than he has won off. 4 times a distance winner and trainer has a decent course record.
4.25 Hay - Zip - 18/1 - is running from 4lbs lower than he has won off. 5 times a distance winner including 1 x CD. Slight negative is trainers moderate course record.
5.50 Carl - Corinthia Knight - 9/2 - is running from a whopping 19lbs lower than he has won off. 7 times a distance winner. My negative is that this is an apprentice race, and the apprentice is very inexperienced.
6.05 Leic - Katies Kitten - 15/2 -is running from 7lbs lower than she has won off. Positive is that she is a 3 x CD winner.
Soul Seeker - lost - ran well before fading in the last 1/2 furlong when it wasn't quite getting there... will surely win soon enough.
Zip -similar to above - finished 6th (EW extra places were available)
Corinthia Knight - 2nd 15/2
Katies Kitten - 3rd
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
2.45 Leic - Ham and Jam - 2/1 - Ralph Beckett sends just the one runner to Leicester where he has a 20% strike rate. Wears 1st time blinkers.
4.40 Bev - Wheres Jeff - 9/2 - Twice a CD winner, and a beaten fav LTO, he has dropped to 4lbs lower than when winning over CD last summer.
Close, but no cigar.
Ham and Jam - 2nd
Wheres Jeff - 2nd
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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Of interest EACH WAY - wouldn't advise any big bets on these but is something I am following (does get some nice winners and places). EACH WAY terms may vary with bookmakers and sometimes extra places apply.
3.28 Bev - Soul Seeker - 25/1 - is running from 6lbs lower than he has won off. 4 times a distance winner and trainer has a decent course record.
4.25 Hay - Zip - 18/1 - is running from 4lbs lower than he has won off. 5 times a distance winner including 1 x CD. Slight negative is trainers moderate course record.
5.50 Carl - Corinthia Knight - 9/2 - is running from a whopping 19lbs lower than he has won off. 7 times a distance winner. My negative is that this is an apprentice race, and the apprentice is very inexperienced.
6.05 Leic - Katies Kitten - 15/2 -is running from 7lbs lower than she has won off. Positive is that she is a 3 x CD winner.
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2.45 Leic - Ham and Jam - 2/1 - Ralph Beckett sends just the one runner to Leicester where he has a 20% strike rate. Wears 1st time blinkers.
4.40 Bev - Wheres Jeff - 9/2 - Twice a CD winner, and a beaten fav LTO, he has dropped to 4lbs lower than when winning over CD last summer.
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6 hours ago, Bang on said:
2 for this evening at Haydock,
5.33 Hay - Quavering - 7/2 - First time in a handicap, trainer Ralph Beckett is in excellent form (7 wins, 5 placed from 28 runners). Three runs at amile as a 2yo to get handicapped, now steps up to 1m2f. Has been gelded. decent jockey booked (20% at course ... 38% when teamed up with trainer).
6.38 Hay - Mighty Gurkha - 8/1 EACH WAY (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - First run since being gelded, trainer Archie Watson in decent form ( 4 wins, 5 placed, from 25 runners). Very well treated on his old form (won a Group 3 on polytrack - this is a class 4 hcp). Promising jockey Harry Davies on board... main danger looks to be Hyperfocus (CD x 3 and also well treated on old form)
Quavering - lost - well done to @The Equaliserfor finding the winner
Mighty Gurkha - 2nd 11/1 - jockey made the wrong decision to go up the rails and had to take a different route costing a little ground, would have been close IMO. Place part returns a small profit on the selection. The danger Hyperfocus won .... forecast paid £22.20.
** Note to self - I must start doing these forecasts. ☹️
- Clocker, Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2 for this evening at Haydock,
5.33 Hay - Quavering - 7/2 - First time in a handicap, trainer Ralph Beckett is in excellent form (7 wins, 5 placed from 28 runners). Three runs at amile as a 2yo to get handicapped, now steps up to 1m2f. Has been gelded. decent jockey booked (20% at course ... 38% when teamed up with trainer).
6.38 Hay - Mighty Gurkha - 8/1 EACH WAY (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - First run since being gelded, trainer Archie Watson in decent form ( 4 wins, 5 placed, from 25 runners). Very well treated on his old form (won a Group 3 on polytrack - this is a class 4 hcp). Promising jockey Harry Davies on board... main danger looks to be Hyperfocus (CD x 3 and also well treated on old form)
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These are strange times @Johnrobertson.
Ever since covid, and the big bookmakers taking control of the markets rather than returning s.p.'s from the on course layers, has brought about a complete sea change in the way the markets work IMO.
If you fancied a selection, you could check the markets to see if it was contracting or drifting, nowadays it is a pointless exercise, with far more drifters winning and ultra late (last minute or 2) shortening of prices. The exceptions are the ones who are going for a monster gamble and the bookmakers IMO then shorten the 'live one'... but also shorten a couple of others that are fancied in the papers so as to muddy the waters. This has led to trainers (and owners) having to operate differently themselves in order to get a decent bet at a decent price to pay the bills.
You are not alone in having a poor month, I have had to do some brain fogging examination of my bets and look for the mindset and workings of the major bookmakers. I know some in the business (odds compilers) and they are a lot more cagey these days. It's never been easy but has been difficult for a while (although not impossible). Anyway, that's my two pennies worth, good luck with your punting.
- MCLARKE, Zilzalian, Nigwilliam and 2 others
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48 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
Speaking of in-form trainers, Saeed bin Suroor is having a good season so far, he's definitely one to watch.
Yes, and 2.45 Ham - Ghaly -is very interesting (his only runner of the day). He is in very good form, has a good course record, my only concern is that he has been off the track since 2020 (662 days).
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Some interesting runners at Hamilton today, trainer George Boughey sends 4 runners (his previous 3 at the course all won) and jockey William Buick travels up to ride them all (3 wins from 6 rides at the course). It could be a very good day for him. For me, the best (hopefully) runs in the
3.15 Ham - Charles St - 15/8 - doesn't run a bad race usually and can hopefully win today.
7.30 Chep - Edinburgh Rock - 6/4 - Trainer Ralph Beckett is infantastic form ( won 5/11 at the weekend including Irish derby), and he has an excellent 31% strike rate at the course (this is his only runner at the course today).
8.20 Strat - Barenboim - 9/2 EACH WAY (1/5 3 places)- Fergal O'Brien is top course trainer, and has 2 runners today. This is the only one that Paddy Brennan rides. This is a maiden so maybe not one for maximum confidence, hence backing each way.
- Wildgarden, azzybear, alexcaruso808 and 1 other
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2 hours ago, Bang on said:
3.15 Ponte - Wagga Wagga - 11/8 - Hughie Morrison sends just one runner up to Pontefract, William Buick rides. Trainer has an excellent 28% course strike rate. Horse finished 2nd beaten just a neck LTO.
A bit of a shot in the dark with the next one.
3.00 South - Full Aux Rois - Each Way( now 9/1 - 1/5th 4 places after Leopolds Rock taken out [ I am on at 14's rule 4] ) - Has blasted off in front in its last 2 races before running out of steam. Today has tongue strap and 1st time cheekpieces. Has dropped 24lbs in last 6 runs. Decent jockey and definitely worth an each way bet for me.
Wagga Wagga - WON very easily
Full Aux Rois - lost - went off like a lunatic again, will keep fallingin the handicap and will probably win eventually provided it settles at least a little bit better.
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3.15 Ponte - Wagga Wagga - 11/8 - Hughie Morrison sends just one runner up to Pontefract, William Buick rides. Trainer has an excellent 28% course strike rate. Horse finished 2nd beaten just a neck LTO.
A bit of a shot in the dark with the next one.
3.00 South - Full Aux Rois - Each Way( now 9/1 - 1/5th 4 places after Leopolds Rock taken out [ I am on at 14's rule 4] ) - Has blasted off in front in its last 2 races before running out of steam. Today has tongue strap and 1st time cheekpieces. Has dropped 24lbs in last 6 runs. Decent jockey and definitely worth an each way bet for me.
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There is no doubt that some horses are backed to win... and then layed for a place by the same people. If they think the horse can win... press on. If they think that they are beaten.. drop back and get unplaced.. save the stake money.
Didn't see the race in question but it happens regularly... put them in your notebook.
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12 hours ago, Darran said:
Not sure how what happened to Bagan had anything to do with the fact it was an amateur rider race. Some of the jockey's in the race are better than a fair few pros.
Amateur and apprentice jockey races always seem to have 'some' riders who are always a bit too eager to impress and end up causing problems for those who are more 'professional' in their approach.
I don't have a problem backing a selection ridden by an amateur or apprentice... but not in a race confined to them.
I agree, some pro jockeys are very over rated ( won't name names) but I tend to avoid them if at all possible.
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
Afternoon cards giving options but not major bets, haven't finished evening cards yet.
1.55 Cart - Bagan - 9/2 each way - looks an interesting runner for Seamus Mullins who is in red hot form (5 wins, 1 place, from last 7 runners). He sends this one runner on a 500 mile plus round trip. It is an amateur jockeys race which I very rarely get involved with. At the price it might be best to play each way (very small loss if placed).
Later on the card I have backed
4.47 Cart - Calliope - 9/2 each way (best now available - was much bigger). It is 17lbs lower than it's winning mark, trainer Dianne Sayer has a good record at the course (20% strike rate) and is in decent form ( 2 wins from last 7 runners). There are dangers in the race with Golden Town, and kayfast Warrior, so I have backed each way.
Disappointing, Bagan looked to be going quite well when a jockey in front unseated, which in turn unseated Bagan's jockey... that's why I rarely bet in non pro jockey races. Calliope finished 3rd so each way small loss.
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Afternoon cards giving options but not major bets, haven't finished evening cards yet.
1.55 Cart - Bagan - 9/2 each way - looks an interesting runner for Seamus Mullins who is in red hot form (5 wins, 1 place, from last 7 runners). He sends this one runner on a 500 mile plus round trip. It is an amateur jockeys race which I very rarely get involved with. At the price it might be best to play each way (very small loss if placed).
Later on the card I have backed
4.47 Cart - Calliope - 9/2 each way (best now available - was much bigger). It is 17lbs lower than it's winning mark, trainer Dianne Sayer has a good record at the course (20% strike rate) and is in decent form ( 2 wins from last 7 runners). There are dangers in the race with Golden Town, and kayfast Warrior, so I have backed each way.
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
Had an EACH WAY double.
2.25 Carl - Tangled - 3/1 ( 1/5 4 places) - 2nd 8 days ago, CD winner (twice), and trainer in very good form (3 wins, 2 placed from 8 runners)
5.50 Kemp - Smiling Sunflower - 3/1 ( 1/5 4 places) - 3rd LTO and has cheek pieces added.
Sods law,
Tangled never really put in race despite being lower in the weights than it has won from.
Smiling Sunflower - won 4/1 ... at least I had a single after the 1st one went down.
- LEE-GRAYS, cannotbebeat, Wildgarden and 1 other
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Had an EACH WAY double.
2.25 Carl - Tangled - 3/1 ( 1/5 4 places) - 2nd 8 days ago, CD winner (twice), and trainer in very good form (3 wins, 2 placed from 8 runners)
5.50 Kemp - Smiling Sunflower - 3/1 ( 1/5 4 places) - 3rd LTO and has cheek pieces added.
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Many thanks, but here's the quandary for me. There is a 2.30 race at Brighton coming up. As far as I can see Batchelor Boy should beat Verreaux Eagle by about 2 lengths based on their previous running at the same venue in April. Verreaux Eagle is 4/1 favourite and you can get 9/1 in places for Batchelor Boy. This horse is also the second choice in the Timeform verdict today. I could have got 12.0 on the Betting Exchange but the market is suggesting that the horse will run like a donkey. Somehow I couldn't bring myself to place the bet. Hence, am I missing something here?
It was a very tricky race, to be honest, the racing post had every runner at single figure odds ( 9/2 - 9/1 )which means that even their odds compiler was struggling.
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23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
I was gobsmacked yesterday when I saw that A Sure Welcome won the 6.05 at Windsor at 9/1. It was clear top RPR rated and had a good record at the track over the distance, Its recent form, however, had not been good. Despite the horse's previous past excellent performance at the track, the media press convinced me that Hello Me was a better bet (finished last). The way my day went I didn't back anything yesterday, however, this has got me thinking that I have to find the correct balance between assuming that those horses at the front end of the market in a race will run better than those at the other end of the market, whilst, logically dismissing outsiders who do not appear to have a realistic chance of success. Whilst it would be foolish to ignore favourites and those at the front end of the market in handicaps, in future, I will actively look for clues as to whether the longer-priced runners do indeed have just as much a live chance of winning the race as the main market leaders.
Not had much time once again to look at the races so far today.
I have placed a 1 point win on Boom The Groom in the 1.30 at Brighton at 4.6
Hopefully, I will find some time to look at other races later
Good luck to all punting today
A sure welcome was running off a 7lb lower handicap mark than it had won off in the last year. It had also fallen 10lb in its last 6 runs.
For me, the markets are nowhere near as reliable as they used to be. When the prices (and s.p.'s) were taken from the bookmakers in the betting ring, it was a useful tool watching the markets. Nowadays (since covid) the bookmakers set their own s.p.'s and there have been some very strange ones... a couple of weeks back I backed a selection at 9/1 just a minute or so before the off... it won at an s.p. of 9/2 .... that was bookmaker manipulation because of liabilities IMO.
- The Equaliser, Bedlam and Wildgarden
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6 hours ago, calva decoy said:
£66,051,84 the tricast paid , I take it we were all on ?
In spades lol. ?
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Lots of interest today, and for various reasons.
4.00 Uttox - Game Line - 9/2 - 3pts win - Trainer Peter Bowen is in excelent form ( 3 wins, 3 placed from 8 runners). It was a beaten favourite LTO but is 3lb below its winning mark and can make amends today.
4.10 Ham - Yeeeaah - 15/2 - 1pt EW - Yet to win (twice placed) in 7 attempts, but was only beaten a length LTO and is on my 'to follow' list. Each way because it hasn't won yet.
8.40 Ripon - Burgoo Beauty - 10/3 - 3pts win - Trainer Harry Eustace sends just one runner (his first) to Ripon. Should have learnt plenty from its first race at Chester (very tricky track for an unraced runner), and also steps back in distance. Jockey with a good course record has been booked and hopefully it can improve for a second race and win.
8pts staked
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Ran like stink - now 15 without a win, and is lower in the weights than it has won off... however.. it has only won on turf, not AW. Keep an eye out for a turf run soon IMO.