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Bang on

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Posts posted by Bang on

    Racing Chat - Thursday 8th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2.38 - Taunt - Magistrato - 7/2 bet365 B.O.G. - Paul Nichols is in very good form (14 wins, 11 placed, from 43 runners). This is the 2nd run after a wind op, and although there are 4 runners all with a chance, looks worth a small bet at the price.

    5.30 Chelm - Cahore Retreat - 6/1 EW (1/5 4 places bet365) - David Evans runner is in a nursery for the 1st time, visored 1st time, and runs on the AW 1st time. Looks worth an EW bet.

    -----------------------------

    6.00 Chelm - Popular Dream - has been heavily gambled into 5/4 fav (forecast 12/1). I won't be having a bet on this unraced 2yo but it may be worth watching as it seems expected to go well and is well bred.

    ??️‍♂️ Heisenberg's Trade ?? 2k22

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Heisenberg68 said:

    With this misadventure, I preferred to stop trading for a little time.

    Morale is important in betting, I know what I am talking about.

    I thought about my business plan.

    I don't want anything to be left to chance from now on. I've made too many mistakes!
    I want to take my time now!

     


    December 2022: £550 Approx
    January 2023: +£200
    February 2023: +£200
    March 2023: +£200
    April 2023: +£200
    May 2023: +£200
    June 2023: +£200
    July 2023: +£200
    August 2023: +£200
    September 2023: +£200
    October 2023: +£200

    I've looked at the possibilities, and I think each month I can earn a reasonable 3% of the current bank.

    If the plans are followed, the bank in November 2023 may be £3000.

    I'll be back as soon as possible to continue with trade 11.

     

    Ww

     

    By my calculations, 3% per month starting with £550 would increase to £784.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 6th December.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Bang on said:

    Not the most inspiring day, just the 1 that looks potentially strong enough.

    2.55 Utt - Sholokjack - 2/1 generally. A Novice handicap chase where all but the top of the handicap are - out of the handicap (the selection is 4lb wrong). However, he is having his 1st run after a wind operation, and is a winning pointer. Is potentially a decent chaser if the wind op has worked well.

    Lost = fell 2nd

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 6th December.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Not the most inspiring day, just the 1 that looks potentially strong enough.

    2.55 Utt - Sholokjack - 2/1 generally. A Novice handicap chase where all but the top of the handicap are - out of the handicap (the selection is 4lb wrong). However, he is having his 1st run after a wind operation, and is a winning pointer. Is potentially a decent chaser if the wind op has worked well.

    Racing Chat-Monday 5th December.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 12/5/2022 at 11:40 AM, Bang on said:

    Couple from my tracker.

    3.10 Muss - Creative Control - 7/2 Bet365 - Was given a very tender ride LTO, never even pushed let alone driven by claiming jockey. Brian Hughes takes over and trainer Donald McCain is in fair form (10 wins from last 42 runners)

    7.20 Wolv - Mobashr - 9/2 with various firms. - Was severely eased when beaten LTO to finish 9th of 10, but only beaten just over 4 lengths. Main danger looks to be Karl Burkes Tothenines who wears 1st time cheekpieces.

    Creative Control - WON easy enough

    Mobashr - lost 3rd

    Racing Chat-Monday 5th December.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Couple from my tracker.

    3.10 Muss - Creative Control - 7/2 Bet365 - Was given a very tender ride LTO, never even pushed let alone driven by claiming jockey. Brian Hughes takes over and trainer Donald McCain is in fair form (10 wins from last 42 runners)

    7.20 Wolv - Mobashr - 9/2 with various firms. - Was severely eased when beaten LTO to finish 9th of 10, but only beaten just over 4 lengths. Main danger looks to be Karl Burkes Tothenines who wears 1st time cheekpieces.

    Tuesday 29th November Racing Chat

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Bang on said:

    A few of interest today, 1st one from my TRACKER.

    3.15 Wolv - Camachess - 9/2 (1/5th 4 places available) - Was runing from 8lb below its wining mark within the last year LTO, well backed BUT jockey never put it anywhere near the race and didn't get involved. Tops the ratings and decent Amateur booked.

    -----

    Also

    2.20 Ling - Dinoo - 2/1 - Beaten Fav LTO, and trainer Roger Varian is in very good form.

    1.35 South - Mexican Boy - 3/1 - Wears 1st time cheekpieces, 2nd run after a wind op, and 1st time in a Handicap for the Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen combo. Drops down in trip for chasing debut.

    6.50 Wolv - Sicario - 5/2 -Beaten Fav LTO (ran well below expectations). Trainer Mick Appleby is having a few run well (and win).

    Hit the bar with these ones.

    Camachess - 2nd 11/2

    Dinoo - 2nd - beaten a nose

    Mexican Boy - 2nd

    Sicario - 3rd

    Tuesday 29th November Racing Chat

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    A few of interest today, 1st one from my TRACKER.

    3.15 Wolv - Camachess - 9/2 (1/5th 4 places available) - Was runing from 8lb below its wining mark within the last year LTO, well backed BUT jockey never put it anywhere near the race and didn't get involved. Tops the ratings and decent Amateur booked.

    -----

    Also

    2.20 Ling - Dinoo - 2/1 - Beaten Fav LTO, and trainer Roger Varian is in very good form.

    1.35 South - Mexican Boy - 3/1 - Wears 1st time cheekpieces, 2nd run after a wind op, and 1st time in a Handicap for the Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen combo. Drops down in trip for chasing debut.

    6.50 Wolv - Sicario - 5/2 -Beaten Fav LTO (ran well below expectations). Trainer Mick Appleby is having a few run well (and win).

    ONE NAP A DAY

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    1 Nap a day is really difficult, far more difficult than people imagine. 

    You seem to have too many threads, and are all over the place with too many different sports, try to specialise. Trying to find a bet is difficult at times, but 1 that is a NAP (Maximum stakes), is not always possible. My advice is to focus on just the 1 thread, do more research, and look for better prices rather than odds on trying to buy money.

    It's extremely difficult trying to make a profit ... but almost impossible with odds on betting. I have a selection method that has around a 70% strike rate on favourites (1 a day - some days none), and even that only makes around 8 - 10 pts per month LSP. If you only get around 50% winners with short price or odds on favs you will most likely lose money.

    Just trying to help you turn things around.

    At the races Market Movers (net)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I don't know why it appears that way. What I can say is that bookmakers highlighting market movers doesn't sound right. WHY would they tell everyone to back the live contender ?

    I keep an eye on the markets, but there are many 'false moves' (where do they come from?). The other day, a 40/1 chance in the betting forecast was 'backed' into 9/2 2nd fav (16% move which is massive). On closer inspection, the horse was running from 34lbs out of the handicap.. 34lbs ! It had zero chance. It then gradually drifted back out to around the forecast price... and then pulled up.

    For quite some time I have thought that the bookmakers are manipulating the market, fully aware that many are looking for the market moves. My study has shown that as many drifters as market movers win, the key is spotting the real live ones.. and then analysing the race to see if some sudden improvement 'could' happen to justify the move.

    HORSES 1-3-2-6

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

     

    I don’t understand 

    The thread is called 1-3-2-6 because of the staking progression.

    1pt ... 3pts ... 2pts ... 6pts (winners only - revert back to 1pt after a loser - or end of sequence)

    Possibilities

    Bet 1 - this is just the first bet - 1pt

    Bet 2 - 3pts ... If bet 2 loses (-3), bet 1 must have won at odds of 3/1 just to break level.

    Bet 3 - 2pts ... If bets 1 and 2 have both won, and bet 3 loses (-2) ... you should still be winning on the sequence.

    Bet 4 - 6pts ... If the first 3 bets have won, and bet 4 loses (-6) ... you should be at least level (provided Evens minimum price for bets 1,2,3).

    Obviously the aim is for all 4 bets to win which can prove difficult. As I stated earlier, Bet 2 is crucial as this is where you need to avoid a loser or you could have backed a winner in bet1, but still end up losing on the sequence.

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