Bang on
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Posts
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Posts posted by Bang on
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22 hours ago, Bang on said:
2.50 M.Ras - The Wounded Knee - 12/1 EW (1/5th 4 places). First run for Roger Fell who is in good form ( 6 wins from last 27 runners) Gavin Sheehan rides ( only ride of day). With 4 places available it looks a fair bet, should place at least.
3.50 M.Ras - Marajman - 4/1 - This is the 2nd run after a wind operation, has become dangerously well handicapped. Robert Dunne's only ride of the day.
Woulnded knee ran like it had one. - lost
Marajman - WON
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2.50 M.Ras - The Wounded Knee - 12/1 EW (1/5th 4 places). First run for Roger Fell who is in good form ( 6 wins from last 27 runners) Gavin Sheehan rides ( only ride of day). With 4 places available it looks a fair bet, should place at least.
3.50 M.Ras - Marajman - 4/1 - This is the 2nd run after a wind operation, has become dangerously well handicapped. Robert Dunne's only ride of the day.
- yossa6133, MCLARKE and The Equaliser
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9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day ok trainers can have a good few horses but you try picking which horse Fahey or Johnson will win with? Your whole approach is wrong, Told you before if you don't change your thinking you will carry on racking up those losses. it is easy to find the best horse in the race, in handicaps its number 1 on the card the hard bit is knowing if they will win or not, i know the fastest horse in any given race but i got to know when to leave them alone until everything or almost everything is in my favour. how many horses have you got in your notebook? now be honest.
I agree with "How many Jockeys or trainers get 4 winners in a day jockeys can only ride 7 horses a day". I'm sure the other day that Harry Cobden had 6 rides at a course where his strike rate is 31%, he should have managed 2 winners based upon that stat, but only managed 1.. and I think that was odds on.
I think that @The Equaliser is part of the way there, better jockeys make fewer mistakes, the problem is that can sometimes be reflected in the price.
- Zilzalian and The Equaliser
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6 hours ago, Bang on said:
Had a small bet on
8.45 Ling - Parisiac - 11/2 - don't often bet in apprentice handicaps, but this one is falling in the weights (16lbs lower than it has won off within the last year). It is only a 4 year old, and wears blinkers 1st time. Don't know much about the apprentice jockey, but it is a small field so hopefully gets a good run. Trainer Alice Haynes (part owner) is in reasonable form, and at the price looks fair value.
WON 13/2
- Nigwilliam, LeMale, Villa Chris and 5 others
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Had a small bet on
8.45 Ling - Parisiac - 11/2 - don't often bet in apprentice handicaps, but this one is falling in the weights (16lbs lower than it has won off within the last year). It is only a 4 year old, and wears blinkers 1st time. Don't know much about the apprentice jockey, but it is a small field so hopefully gets a good run. Trainer Alice Haynes (part owner) is in reasonable form, and at the price looks fair value.
- The Equaliser, The Brigadier, BBBC and 2 others
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2 hours ago, sporting sam said:
Hughs selections are below.
My reason for posting them are manyfold, firstly I'd like to know if you follow them,
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
4.55 REDCAR
1pt each-way TACITUS (25-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 20-1 bet365, Sky Bet, Unibet - all paying 4 places)
8.10 LINGFIELD
1pt win SPIRIT OF BREEZE (16-1 general)
I check his bets every day ... just to oppose him if possible. His followers make the market for others IMO. Yes, occasionally he has a winner ( I would say virtually impossible to get the price), but in general I find that his strike rate is poor.
TODAYS selections
TACITUS - is 0/16 , has a 5lb claiming jockey on, last ran on the AW in April finishing 7th..... needs a massive turn around and a huge dollop of faith and crossed fingers. No bet in race for me.
SPIRIT OF BREEZE - at least trainer Gary Moore is in some form, but my preference is for the Hughie Morrison runner ASCARI, drops back in trip (sprinters in pedigree), is in a handicap for the 1st time, decent jockey, and trainer is 5 wins from 16 in last 5 years (31%).
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On 5/25/2023 at 11:57 AM, ReliableH said:
Would you trust AI programme at an expert level to predict results of races? If results were shown to make consistent profits over a selected period.
AI will never be able to predict when owners and trainers are having a gamble. Don't fancy the price, don't try. Happens every day.
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2.00 Yar - Alpha King - 5/2
4.00 Ayr - Yaaser - 3/1
5.10 Yar - Girl in the picture - 5/1
8.10 kemp - Balhambar - 11/4
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6 hours ago, Bang on said:
5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.
2nd 9/2 beaten a Neck !
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5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.
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2.40 Strat - Animal - 9/4 - 1pt - Has won a bumper and a chase on todays soft ground so going no problem. The danger looks like Richard Bandey's runner (stable coming into form) Icaque de l'isle.
3.00 Plump - Le Patron - 15/8 - 1pt - A winner in France on soft going, and with top course jockey Jamie Moore riding for father Gary.
8.00 Wolv - Candy Warhol - 7/2 - 1pt - Yet to win for trainer Scott Dixon, drops in trip as well as from class 4 to class 5. Danger looks like Chookie Dunedin, who is 7/23 at Wolverhampton with 4 x CD wins.
3pts staked
- The Equaliser, MCLARKE, azzybear and 3 others
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On 3/11/2023 at 1:29 PM, Bang on said:
Another hectic Saturday, with football taking up it's share of study.
3.20 Ayr - Ginger Mail - 9/4 (Hills) - 1pt - Trainer Nick Alexander's local course, and a course he does well at. This CD winner is only 1lb higher than for his last win.
7.00 Chelm - Barging Thru - 7/2 - 1pt - Beaten just over a length 4 weeks ago (the 1st 2 in the race have both won since), top course jockey Luke Morris rides.
8.30 Chelm - Beautiful Crown - 3/1 - 1pt - On a losing run of 12 (back to 2021), but is gradually dropping in the weights. I have kept an eye on this horse, and today it runs in a class 6, and the 2 races it has won were class 4 and 5. Slightly speculative with such a losing run, but I'm tempted.
3pts staked
Mixed day, so nearly.
Ginger mail - 2nd
Barging Thru - WON
Beautiful Crown - 2nd
+ 1.5pts on the day.
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Another hectic Saturday, with football taking up it's share of study.
3.20 Ayr - Ginger Mail - 9/4 (Hills) - 1pt - Trainer Nick Alexander's local course, and a course he does well at. This CD winner is only 1lb higher than for his last win.
7.00 Chelm - Barging Thru - 7/2 - 1pt - Beaten just over a length 4 weeks ago (the 1st 2 in the race have both won since), top course jockey Luke Morris rides.
8.30 Chelm - Beautiful Crown - 3/1 - 1pt - On a losing run of 12 (back to 2021), but is gradually dropping in the weights. I have kept an eye on this horse, and today it runs in a class 6, and the 2 races it has won were class 4 and 5. Slightly speculative with such a losing run, but I'm tempted.
3pts staked
- The Equaliser, azzybear, kensland and 1 other
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On 3/9/2023 at 7:44 PM, The Equaliser said:
Amazing how just one horse winning can make all the difference to a day's returns. Too Much, tipped up by @The Brigadierat 9/2 went off at 12/1 and won well. Just goes to show that the market does get it wrong quite often. Written Broadcast 2nd, Electric Annie 3rd, I had my doubts about this one and Tathmean may as well not been in the race at all. Anyway 7.40 pts profit on the day. This makes my MTD +8.72 and YTD -86.55
Are you liking the 'less is more' approach ?
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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9 hours ago, Snoopdog said:
Recently there seems to have been a proliferation of this kind of race - and I don't see why ???
I used to think of level weights stakes races as a bit better than handicaps but these are the bottom of the barrel.
Take today's 1.50 at Southwell as an example. The bottom three in the betting are rated 42, 43, 42 and are priced at 80/1, 80/1, 125/1. They have very little chance against the favourite rated 49. Why would the trainer enter them ???
Surely these low quality horses have more chance in a 0-60 handicap - even if a few punds out of the bottom of the handicap.
I just ignore Classified races.
- Gary66 and Wildgarden
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3.00 Ling - Anisoptera - 5/2 - 1pt ... BF last time, this CD winner needs a stronger pace, and could get it today. 2nd
3.40 Font - Wewillgowithplanb - 10/3 - 1pt ... Drops back in trip and switches to fences, should suit. WON
4.00 Ling - Hill Station - 7/2 - 1pt ... Trainer Gary Moore's (top course trainer) only runner here today. 2nd
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0.5pt EW double
3.10 Font - Kotmask - 10/3 (1/5 3 places) .... (G.Moore/J.Moore combo- top trainer and Jockey at course) 2nd
4.30 Ling - Galileo Glass - 3/1 (1/5 3 places) ... Trainer David Evans in good form, Adam Kirby (his son in law) rides today. 2nd
4pts staked
Profit of 1.63pts on the day
- azzybear, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser
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On 3/4/2023 at 1:19 PM, The Equaliser said:
I hope that @Bang onposts up today, I am very interested in seeing him show me how betting should be done throughout March. I am not being saucy btw just sincerely interested in his staking and selection method using his 50 point bank
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Apologies for not posting on Saturday @The Equaliser but I was 'at the races' and didn't have access to my computer. I don't bet on Sundays as I always take a day off to do something different and recharge. Monday I had very little spare time, and Tuesday I was 'at the races' again. I will try to post as often as possible with staking. ? I realise that I need to try and show my own bets a little more .. the only downside is that some days there are more bets than I would encourage (it's not a perfect world).
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Have a shortlist of 10 from the 28 races today, won't back them all, but have backed these.
1.50 Ling - Deed Pole - 11/10 - 1pt
5.05 Newb - Anti Bridgie - 4/1 - 1pt
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0.5pt EW double
2.25 Ling - First Company - 7/2 (1/5th 3 places)
8.15 Newc - Gunnerside - 9/4 (1/5th 3 places)
3pts staked
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2 hours ago, Bang on said:
2.00 Newc - Vega Sicilia - Ev - 1pt - Beaten fav LTO but looks a solid selection in todays race, price a bit lower than I usually like but I'm backing this one.
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2.25 - Lud - Merry Poppins -7/1 (1/5th 3 places)
3.45 Newc - Intervention - 3/1 (1/5th 3 places)
0.5pt EW double
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2pts staked
Vega Sicilia - 2nd
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Merry Poppins 2nd 10/1
Intervention - Lost
Not quite there today -2pts
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2.00 Newc - Vega Sicilia - Ev - 1pt - Beaten fav LTO but looks a solid selection in todays race, price a bit lower than I usually like but I'm backing this one.
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2.25 - Lud - Merry Poppins -7/1 (1/5th 3 places)
3.45 Newc - Intervention - 3/1 (1/5th 3 places)
0.5pt EW double
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2pts staked
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
It is clear that once again my enthusiasm for the multiple bets has altogether consumed me. My loss in Feb was about 72 points versus a loss of around 24 points in January. I suddenly thought last night what if I did two 3 pt L15's each day throughout March. If they all lost I would take a hit of 186 points!! That probably wouldn't happen but it made me think that I must make an adjustment. What I have decided to do is limit my L15s to 1 or max 2 per week. Mostly, an L15 will be placed on a Saturday but mid-week we do see some big meetings take place so I may be tempted by one of them. This immediately cuts my monthly loss between 12 - 24 points which seems to be much more palatable.
I have gone for just some singles today:
2.30 Lin Talamanca 1 pt win at 15.00 with Oisin Murphy aboard
3.55 Muss Cuban Cigar 1 pt win at 6.2 to beat the hot pot favourite
6.00 Km Fat Gladiator 0.50 ew at 16/1 with Betfred 4TBP
Total points = 3 staked today
A win for common sense. Have a lucky 15 or trixie ... when you feel strongly enough about the selections, not because the day in question ends in a Y.
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22 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
1st Lucky 15
3.15 Catt Sabbathical 2/1 (no win bet)
4.15Catt Fiston Du Mou 7/2 (1 pt win at 5.1)
4.45 Catt Sanosuke 5/1 (1 pt win at 6.8)
5.00 Sou Blackcurrent 7/1 (1 pt win at 8.8)
1 x Win L15 = 3 pts = poss return 281.46
Total stakes so far = 6 pts
Back soon with 2nd L15
2nd L15 at Southwell
6.00 Moon Over The Sea 11/4 (no win bet)
6.30 French Invasion 10/3 (1pt win at 5.1 Um 4.4)
7.30 Kodebreaker 11/1 (1 pt win at 12.0)
8.30 Billion 9/2 ( 1 pt win at 9/2)
1 x Win L15 = 3 pts poss return of 427.93
Total stakes today are 12 points
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Billion beaten a nose and Kodebreaker 3rd. Blackcurrent 2nd in earlier L15, hence a nil return today. French Invasion price not matched so - 11 pts today. Mtd - 71.57 and YTD - 95.27
You are digging faster than ever. 'Possible returns' of close to 750pts in a day !!! Yet actual returns of 0. I gave you some solid advice about field sizes, race types, and staking, yet you still carry on regardless. Maybe one day you will 'get lucky', but the way you stake, and the big losses ... you will need a 'lucky day'. Take a step back and look at your selection process and staking. I use a 50pt bank and would have wiped out almost 2 banks in 2 months betting like this.
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18 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
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18 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
5.10 Smooth ryder 0.50 ew at 4/1
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Bomb Squad got beaten a nose and Dark Design got beat half a length. Gavi Di Gavi won and Smooth Ryder placed. Three returns yielded 12.06 hence I made a profit of 1.06 @Bang onshould be proud of me ?. Seriously, I did limit the races for my multiples to his previously advised races to include for betting purposes. This make my MTD -60.70 and YTD -84.40
I am looking forward to tomorrow's racing
Have to agree with @Zilzalian about the EW bets - especially on a 4/1 chance. All you are doing is 'accepting losses' but trying to limit them.
On the positive side.. doesn't winning 1pt feel better than losing ? Keep it up.
- The Equaliser, MCLARKE and Zilzalian
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Racing Chat - Saturday 10th June
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.10 Hay - Bussento - 3/1 - Could be on a decent mark, and may appreciate the faster surface.
4.25 Bev - Jewel Maker 11/2 EW (1/5th 3 places) - Drops back into a class 5 handicap, Top course trainer Tim Easterby's runner looks to have a good chance. My concern about a couple of dangers (Broctune Red in particular) is the reason for playing EW.
7.30 Chep - Red Alert - 11/1 EW (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - Has won off an 8lb higher mark within the last year, he is dropping down the weights and has become well handicapped. Trainer Tony Carroll is the top course trainer with runners today, and jockey William Cox (only 2 rides) has a very fair 22% strike rate when riding for T.C.