Bang on
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Posts posted by Bang on
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
4.02 Bev - Golden Melody - 10/1 EW (1/5th 3 places with365) - Has slipped to her lowest mark since 2021. Top course Jockey, and Top course Trainer combo, this CD winner should at least get placed and at 10/1 is a fair EW selection.
2nd 12/1 - almost but at least the place part ensured a small profit.
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4.02 Bev - Golden Melody - 10/1 EW (1/5th 3 places with365) - Has slipped to her lowest mark since 2021. Top course Jockey, and Top course Trainer combo, this CD winner should at least get placed and at 10/1 is a fair EW selection.
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Not all. I can't wait to use A I with horse racing. However, @Valiant Thor's thoughts on this would be much appreciated haha
Isn't A I just the sum of a lot of other peoples views ?
I would try and find your own angle. @richard-westwood uses ratings, @Villa Chris also uses ratings, but I doubt they are exactly the same. @Zilzalian uses speed figures. @MCLARKE uses stats, and I'm sure others have their own methods, some of which may be similar but slightly different. We all have success and failure (we can't win all the time), it's trying to find something that you are comfortable with, and in my own case doesn't take hours of study. Hope you find yours soon.
- BBBC, Villa Chris, richard-westwood and 2 others
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7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Good morning Ken , it’s Wednesday today 🙂
Worcester 4.23
Polish 9.49 9/4
Irish Prophecy 9.27 15/2
These two bit clear of the rest . Polish ran a good race beaten a head on his first run back the other week. Irish Prophecy is more known as a chaser these days and I marked him up as one of interest on his last run so not sure why they have taken him down the hurdles route. He may play a part but I think Polish is a strong bet here and should find this easier than his last race.
5 points win Polish
Hope you're right as I'm on Polish as well. A very interesting 7 runner race IMO. Irish prophecy (down 21lbs), Polish ( -17lbs), Nevilles Cross (-22lbs) and Court Master (-21lbs). Throw in the Ben Pauling runner (won last 2), and a Nicky Henderson runner ... quite a conundrum.
- MCLARKE and Villa Chris
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On 7/4/2023 at 6:28 AM, Villa Chris said:
Stratford 7.10
Cracking Destiny 9.39 5/1 won 10/1
Admiral Sunset 9.27 5/1
Romanor 9.17 6/1
Sea Prince 9.1 10/3
Sau 9.04 5/1
8 horse race with the top 5 tightly group together . The ratings aren’t giving much away and neither are the bookies. Cracking Destiny might be on the decline but he’s been running respectably and continues to drop down the weights. Third run after wind op and watching his previous two races after a break there is enough to like to think he can win this .
5 points win 5/1 bog
Nice winner, I was on very early, it had dropped 18lbs in the weights and the small stable had sent just 1 runner on a 536 mile round trip. 🤑
- Villa Chris and MCLARKE
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6 hours ago, Bang on said:
8.00 Muss - Primo's Comet - 11/2 with 365 - Now over a stone lower than winning mark within last year.
WON 15/2
- Villa Chris, MCLARKE and black rabbit
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8.00 Muss - Primo's Comet - 11/2 with 365 - Now over a stone lower than winning mark within last year.
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1 hour ago, Bang on said:
3.07 Chester - Princess Shabnam - 4/1 W.Hills (shorter with others, has been backed). Has been dropping in the handicap and now on a dangerous mark. Chester is tricky but Franny Norton who rides it well (top course jockey) is on board. Won Listed race last season (this is class 3 hcp) and ran 3 times over CD here finishing 2nd each time. A fair bet at the price IMO.
Given too much to do, the winner had gone from the front which is a big advantage round Chester - 2nd 5/1
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3.07 Chester - Princess Shabnam - 4/1 W.Hills (shorter with others, has been backed). Has been dropping in the handicap and now on a dangerous mark. Chester is tricky but Franny Norton who rides it well (top course jockey) is on board. Won Listed race last season (this is class 3 hcp) and ran 3 times over CD here finishing 2nd each time. A fair bet at the price IMO.
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On 6/27/2023 at 1:27 PM, MCLARKE said:
Not sure if you've had a look at the lucky 15 thread but we have come to the conclusion that the best bet for punters is the lucky 15. That assumes that the punter has a reasonable skill in picking 4 decent selections a day.
Each to their own, regular steady progress is reliable IMO, that's why I stick to singles ( with a rare double etc). The point I was making, was that it is a long time between drinks waiting for a 'lucky 15', and taking away the 1 successful bet would show the overall betting ( and selection process) in a truer light. I tend to use a 'Ratchet bank', meaning that I ratchet up after the bank increases, BUT, never reduce stakes after losers. The gradual increase is similar to compounding and the gradual increase in stakes starts to accelerate profits. For me personally, this gives much better returns in the long run.
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18 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
No luck so far
I have posted up another L15 and Acca on the Daily for 2 pts
6.35 win A Sure Welcome 1 pt win at 13.50
= Total stakes today of 8.10
I think I will stop posing up singles and each-way bets from tomorrow. They waste too many points. I would rather do a lot more 2 points L15's. Much more fun
If you hadn't had the 1 'Lucky 15' (the clue is in the name), what would your YTD be ? You are again changing trying to win people over, rather than just trying to win.
There will always be bad days, bad weeks, and occasionally a bad (or seemingly pointless) months. You have to do your own thing, the fact that the bookies least favourite ( and least profitable) bet is the single should tell you something. There is a lot of racing these days (too much in reality), but as a punter, we don't have to bet in every race, or even every day.
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An interesting sprint at Musselburgh, with 2 lively contenders both dropping down the weights.
7.50 Muss -
Primo's Comet - 4/1 generally - Is now 13lbs below his winning mark (within the last year), is a 6 x CD winner, and the Mulrennan/Goldie (19% when paired) combination.
Latin Five - 7/2 with W.Hills - Is now 10lbs below his winning mark (within the last year), is a 3 x D winner (but not course), and the Lee/Midgley (20% when paired) combination.
I have backed both, and will be keeping an eye on (via tracker) whoever doesn't win as they are sure to be winning soon.
- MCLARKE and The Equaliser
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2.30 - Chindit - 11/1
3.40 - Dramatised - 5/1
5.00 - Law of the Sea - 13/2
6.10 - Raymond Tusk - 33/1
Each Way 365
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5 hours ago, Bang on said:
6.40 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 2/1 - From my tracker, for me this P.Nicholls runner hasn't really been busy, ridden at the back and taking the scenic route (extra furlong). Cheekpieces are added today and Harry Cobden takes the ride after others rode the last couple of runs. The only Nicholls runner at the course today where he has a 20% strike rate.
7.55 Leic - Mighty Gurkha - 5/1 EW ( with bet365 as they are paying 1/5 3 places in a 7 runner race). Is falling down the weights (13lbs in last 6 runs), and is starting to look well handicapped. Jockey Taylor Fisher takes off a further 5lbs making it a very attractive bet at 5/1 with 3 places.
Dancingontheedge - lost disappointing
Mighty Gurkha - WON comfortably
- The Equaliser, fd1972uk and MCLARKE
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6.40 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 2/1 - From my tracker, for me this P.Nicholls runner hasn't really been busy, ridden at the back and taking the scenic route (extra furlong). Cheekpieces are added today and Harry Cobden takes the ride after others rode the last couple of runs. The only Nicholls runner at the course today where he has a 20% strike rate.
7.55 Leic - Mighty Gurkha - 5/1 EW ( with bet365 as they are paying 1/5 3 places in a 7 runner race). Is falling down the weights (13lbs in last 6 runs), and is starting to look well handicapped. Jockey Taylor Fisher takes off a further 5lbs making it a very attractive bet at 5/1 with 3 places.
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
7.00 Ayr - Tilsitt - 7/2 with bet365 (also paying 3 places in a 7 runner race) - likes it at Ayr with 3 wins at the course ( 2 x CD ). In fact his last 3 wins have all been here. Went from the front last time but weakened in the last furlong. Has been dropped a further 2lbs and Joe Fanning ( Fanning from the front) takes the ride (2nd top course jockey riding here today). I'm on for WIN, but with bet365 offering 3 places(extra place offer) in a 7 runner race, it may appeal to others.
finished 3rd, beaten about a length.
- MCLARKE and The Equaliser
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7.00 Ayr - Tilsitt - 7/2 with bet365 (also paying 3 places in a 7 runner race) - likes it at Ayr with 3 wins at the course ( 2 x CD ). In fact his last 3 wins have all been here. Went from the front last time but weakened in the last furlong. Has been dropped a further 2lbs and Joe Fanning ( Fanning from the front) takes the ride (2nd top course jockey riding here today). I'm on for WIN, but with bet365 offering 3 places(extra place offer) in a 7 runner race, it may appeal to others.
- yossa6133, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 1 other
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20 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Still sorting out bets
2.40 Sal American Tale 0.50 ew at 20/1 3p (Looks like we can only get extra place deals at Southwell today and I'm giving the meeting a miss. Good luck to the brave souls taking on the layers there. Albeit there are some deals at Ayr later and one at Wetherby
3.10 Sal Duiska 0.50 ew at 33/1 3p
3.40 Sal Lisboa 0.50 ew at 14/1
You seem to be changing your approach again. Your tag at the bottom says .. In handicap races we are not looking for long shots .
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14 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I didn't get paid for the place, 2 non runners so only 10 runners
That's unfortunate, I was paid at best odds 10/1 (1/5th). I did mention 4 places with 365.
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:
8.30 Ponte - Corinthia Knight - 6/1 EW (1/5 4 places with 365) - Not won since August last year, but that was over CD, and a class 4 (this is class 5). Has 6 course wins to his name ( 5 are CD ), and he is now running from 10lbs below what he has won from within the last year. Jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride and is 1 winner from 1 runner when riding for trainer Archie Watson here at Pontefract.
Not today, but finished 4th at 10/1 .. so place money gained (2/1 for place).
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8.30 Ponte - Corinthia Knight - 6/1 EW (1/5 4 places with 365) - Not won since August last year, but that was over CD, and a class 4 (this is class 5). Has 6 course wins to his name ( 5 are CD ), and he is now running from 10lbs below what he has won from within the last year. Jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride and is 1 winner from 1 runner when riding for trainer Archie Watson here at Pontefract.
- BBBC, yossa6133, The Equaliser and 1 other
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I think you need to change your approach, you jump from track to track (much better to focus on 1 or 2 tracks as you get to know the dogs and trainers). Also backing 3 in a race when only 6 (sometimes just 5) runners is betting madness. Your ROI will be very very small at best. Trying to cover all eventualities is NOT trying to win .. just trying not to lose.
Good luck, but I would suggest backing 2nd and 3rd favs .. or watch for any very late moves.
- harry_rag and Smartins1234
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7 hours ago, Bang on said:
4.10 Hay - Bussento - 3/1 - Could be on a decent mark, and may appreciate the faster surface.
4.25 Bev - Jewel Maker 11/2 EW (1/5th 3 places) - Drops back into a class 5 handicap, Top course trainer Tim Easterby's runner looks to have a good chance. My concern about a couple of dangers (Broctune Red in particular) is the reason for playing EW.
7.30 Chep - Red Alert - 11/1 EW (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - Has won off an 8lb higher mark within the last year, he is dropping down the weights and has become well handicapped. Trainer Tony Carroll is the top course trainer with runners today, and jockey William Cox (only 2 rides) has a very fair 22% strike rate when riding for T.C.
Bussento - Non Runner
Jewel Maker - Jockey nominated for worst ride of year. Beaten just under 2 lengths after being out the back before trying to come up the rail when it was obvious that there was no way through. SHOULD WIN SOON. - lost
Red Alert - 3rd so place money only (odds 11/5)
Racing chat - Saturday 8th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Bang on
double posted
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