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Bang on

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Posts posted by Bang on

    Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/18/2022 at 12:13 PM, Pirate53 said:

    Not sure what point the OP or VT are making. In the table the odds are advised as a decimal version of the original fractional odds.  Not decimal odds as we know.

    For example 9/1 is shown as 9 with 9 returned, not 10  with 9 returned. The fault is with ATR for a crap table, not HT.

    I follow several tipsters and the prices always bomb. Wait til the off and most rebound.

    (44) Hugh Taylor Tips: Fake or Real? (My Reaction to Comments) - YouTube

     

    Racing Chat-Friday 18th November.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Bang on said:

    Quite a few interesting ones today, can't post them all.

    2.55 Chep - Saint Segal - 4/1 - 1st time in a handicap, trainers only runner (19% course strike rate). It is a NOVICE hcp chase which are not my fav, but looks worth an interest.

    1.20 Catt - Spot on Soph - Ev (but generally odds on) - wouldn't normally back this short but looks fairly solid. Couple of CD wins and trainer Sam England is in good form (2 wins, 2 placed, from 9 runners).

    3.05 Catt - Who's in the box - 4/1 - Trainer Nick Kent in very good form (2 wins from just 3 runers - inc a nice 13/2 yesterday ?. It is his only runner and has been supported.

    Saint Segal - WON

    Spot on Soph - lost 2nd

    Who's in the box - lost fell

    Racing Chat-Friday 18th November.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Quite a few interesting ones today, can't post them all.

    2.55 Chep - Saint Segal - 4/1 - 1st time in a handicap, trainers only runner (19% course strike rate). It is a NOVICE hcp chase which are not my fav, but looks worth an interest.

    1.20 Catt - Spot on Soph - Ev (but generally odds on) - wouldn't normally back this short but looks fairly solid. Couple of CD wins and trainer Sam England is in good form (2 wins, 2 placed, from 9 runners).

    3.05 Catt - Who's in the box - 4/1 - Trainer Nick Kent in very good form (2 wins from just 3 runers - inc a nice 13/2 yesterday ?. It is his only runner and has been supported.

    Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, jonjo said:

    Hugh Taylor is the best in the buisness, simple as, if he wasnt then his selections wouldnt shorten up so much and this thread wouldnt have appeared!!. 

    The 'best in the business' don't have to work for others - they have others work for them. The LAST THING that they would do is make their selections public. Believe me, I know plenty of people high up with the bookmakers, regularly interviewed on TV with their 'insight on the market moves', but they never ever give out the real live ones. 

    Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

    I'm open to criticism and have my tin hat on.

    I know Hugh Taylor is a good guy.

    But is there any real point in putting up selections at 9 am at odds which disappear soon after they are put up?

    Great if they come in. Fair play to him.

    But surely the bookmakers are loving it when people follow him at much lower odds than he put up and can only be value if they actually win.

    I am not a better race reader than Hugh and I admire his rationale, every now and then he comes up with a stunner.  But I just think he is paid well and under pressure to be a Pricewise by 9 am every day. 

    Surely in this day and age he could wait until the markets are formed, and a race actually takes shape, horses are withdrawn. I'd be happy to wait until five minutes before a race. That is when I get my best priced winners.

    He could announce the races he was hoping to play in subject to developments an hour or two before. Of course bookmakers would not like that at all.

    Otherwise I just see him as a bookies lackey good race reader or not.

    Discuss.

    Think Caan Berry on youtube did a video about his selections, he kept refreshing until the selections came up, at the same time he had windows with all major firms open, fact is, you just couldn't get on at the prices claimed. It was often much lower, and at prices available it made a loss.

    HORSES 1-3-2-6

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    On 11/11/2022 at 7:37 PM, waggy said:

    Bang on, I'll let you work it out to see if it's right for you. If the prices are better than evens the more you win. The aim is to get four winners on the trot with a degree of safety 

     

     

     

    I understand the aim, but there is a much bigger emphasis on bets 2 and 4 (3pts, 6pts). It is mathematically unsound. BET 2 is crucial to any profit.

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 15th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    5yo selections

    The 4 biggest odds I have included in a lucky 15

    Fakenham 1.22 Master Malcolm 13/2
    Hereford 1.45 Lyrical Genius 10/1
    Lingfield 2.00 Heros 12/1
    Fakenham 2.52 Voice Of Hope 25/1
    Fakenham 3.22 Grangeclare North 9/1
    Newcastle 3.42 King Of The South 9/4

    Are these 'sole 5yo' in a race ?  Does it make a difference, turf flat, turf NH, All weather ?

    Racing Chat - Saturday 12th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/12/2022 at 12:31 PM, The Equaliser said:

    Lay Bet

    Not many odds on shots today in the UK too look at

    7.30 Wolv Al Dasim 1.99 at 1.48 = 1.95 profit v 0.96 Liability.  The horse carries a double penalty and this is my choice.  I realise that Michael @MCLARKEnaps it at 1/2 and may regret not just having  a level stakes to minimise my liability, however, I reckon anything can happen in 2 yo races  

    Won like an odds on shot should win

    Other Odds on shots

    1.02 Uttx Strong Leader. The Skeltons have pulled out of this race and I can't see any reason why the favourite shouldn't win.  800 Wolv Tough Enough.  Barely odds on and only one supposed real challenger

    8.00 Wolv Tough Enough 1.11 @1.90 = 1.09 v 1.00 Liability

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Well the 2nd odds on shot won so I was down 1.96 points on the day.  Funny enough I never feel bad when they win as I know a lot of people have faith in them.  I have decided to keep to making a 1 pt win with the odds on selections.  I will rarely intentionally lay anything over 1/3, though I know that Al Dasim was backed into 2/7 but it was 1.48 when I laid it.  Hence I won't be laying Nube Zegra in the 1.45 at Cheltenham as Edward Stone has pulled out of  the race.  This makes my MTD -3.47

    Just a word of friendly advice when LAYING the short ones. 

    The 2 you chose were trained by trainers in HOT FORM - G.Boughey (you also had a lay bet on one of his the day before which won) 12 wins, 8 placed from 40 runners (30% winners), and James Tate 2 winners 3 placed from 6 runners (33% winners). It may pay to check the recent stats for the trainer.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    . I want to try and get out of the habit of betting more than one horse unless in the big handicap races. 

    Backing 2 horses in a race is fine IMO, as long as the prices are good enough (wouldn't back Fav + 2fav). Losing runs will certainly be longer with just 1 selection. It is just whatever you are comfortable with. 

    You will be staking 2pts, but if the prices are say minimum 4/1, you will still make 3 pts as long as any one of the 2 wins. 

    Winning 3pts from a 2pt stake is 6/4 your money, that's why you need the better prices. 

    Your past results will tell you more about your selections.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    I have considered laying my selections but then I ask myself the question, if I think the horse is going to win why would I back it to lose ?

    The main one that springs to mind was 4 out of 5 having won and the last was backed from 3/1 (my price) into odds on. I used the 'lay' function to make £500 if the last one lost (would have paid an extra £5k if it won) ... the odds on selection lost by a short head, so it worked out a little better than without. It is all about risk/reward and on that occasion it felt right. I rarely lay selections as it doesn't feel right, but occasionally it can help.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Most likely, but the value of the cash out was £1400 (£2.6k less £1.2k).  The BSP of the winner was 7.4 so if you preserve £1.2 K and lay 1890 at 7.40 you have a profit of 1852.00 subject to 5% or 2% commission depending on your account set up.  Hence on that basis the bookies skewed the cash out in their favour.  Of course one would have had to have £12096 in the betting exchange account to cover the liability.  I would have taken the cash out as it looked like a good deal to me.  But of course the difference between me and some other punters is that if the horse had sailed to the front and won by a distance I would not be having any sleepless nights having secured an extra £2.6k into my bank account for a £6 bet.  It's all about being content with one's decisions   

    I have been in a similar situation, personally I NEVER cash out, it is always in the bookies favour. I do though look to 'lay' the selection (especially if it has shortened in the betting) so as to improve the 'consolation' if the last selection loses.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, Bang on said:

    Don't usually bet on Sunday, take a day off, but one came through on my tracker.

    5.15 - Ffos Las - Shinobi - 7/1 EW - Trainer Kim Bailey in good form, and was backed a little on Wednesday (20 into 12) but never got to see what might have been. A horse fell in front of it and brought it down/  unseated. Is dropping in the hcp and looks worth an Each Way bet.

    WON - unfortunately R4 20p took some of the profit.

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