Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **
Check Out Our Euro 2024 Forum!

Bang on

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    791

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Bang on

    Racing chat -Saturday 7th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Bang on said:

    Wow, 7 meetings again, too much IMO. My selection process has thrown up just 2 selections.

    3.05 Hex - Vintage Fizz - 15/8

    5.18 Hay - Out from Under - 11/8

    I have also had an Each Way bet on

    4.50 Hex - Dolly Dancer - 15/2 EW  (365 B.O.G.) 1/5 3 places - Was heavily backed a week ago, and Unseated at the very 1st fence. Is 9lb lower than for her CD win last May.

    Vintage Fizz - WON 15/8

    Out from under - lost

    Dolly Dancer - lost  - ran well enough - led until late on and then faded badly - would expect her to win sooner rather than later so may be one to follow.

    Small loss on the 3 selections.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    7.50 War Oceans Red 19.61 @ 2.02  = 19.22 v £20 liability

    This horse was 7/4 last night.  It has 3 live contenders so I will go with laying this one

    I had to work through a lot of races to find a handicap with such a significant shortening in price.

    I realise that @Bang onwould not recommend laying in non-handicaps but would like his view that if I chose some non-handicap races to consider what would he recommend? a lot of listed race hot pots seem to fail at short odds, I think

    Another race type that I rarely bet in, I treat them similar to handicaps so go ahead.

    The reason IMO is, that you can get the craved for (by breeders) 'black type' in a listed race. BUT, listed races are not as hot as Group races, and sometimes a top handicapper can win. As you say, "a lot of listed hot pots seem to fail at short odds". The only advice I would give is to look closely at jockey bookings and trainers in form before deciding to lay a runner (of any race type). Maiden races are full of horses trying to do something they haven't done before - win, so could be a possible non handicap lay, but again, take a look at trainers course form, recent form, jockey bookings etc. 

    Good luck.

    Racing chat -Friday 6th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Bang on said:

    A busy day, lots more to get through but my selection process has thrown up 4 selections. All prices are bet365 B.O.G. as most people tend to have this type of account, there are slightly better odds sometimes if you shop around. Prices are at time of posting and not necessarily the prices I have taken. All selections have been backed by myself(Just for info).

    4.00 Asc - Saga 5/4

    5.45 Ripon - Roach Power 13/8

    6.40 Nott - Phantasy Mac - 6/4

    7.45 Ripon - Wots the Wifi Code - 11/4

    I have also had a bet on

    7.26 Wolv - Be Fair - 10/3 - This horse was on my 'to follow' list as it is edging down the weights and looks a winner in waiting some time soon.

     

    Saga - lost

    Roach Power - 2nd

    Phantasy Mac - WON 6/4

    Wots the Wifi Code - 3rd

    Be Fair - WON 10/3

    Mixed bag and a small profit again. Disappointing ride from the 7lb claiming jockey on 'wots the wifi code', but a lovely ride from Hollie Doyle on 'Be Fair' who justified being in my 'to follow' list.

    Racing chat -Friday 6th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    A busy day, lots more to get through but my selection process has thrown up 4 selections. All prices are bet365 B.O.G. as most people tend to have this type of account, there are slightly better odds sometimes if you shop around. Prices are at time of posting and not necessarily the prices I have taken. All selections have been backed by myself(Just for info).

    4.00 Asc - Saga 5/4

    5.45 Ripon - Roach Power 13/8

    6.40 Nott - Phantasy Mac - 6/4

    7.45 Ripon - Wots the Wifi Code - 11/4

    I have also had a bet on

    7.26 Wolv - Be Fair - 10/3 - This horse was on my 'to follow' list as it is edging down the weights and looks a winner in waiting some time soon.

     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bang on

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    I do avoid odds on selections, however, the horse in question was stated as 6/4 the previous night and that was after a 16/1 shot non-runner.  I trust the 10 pm prices as a good guide to the probability of a horse's chances of success.  Therefore, if the market goes mad on a selection and its price shortens significantly then I will "lay" the horse.  For the comp I have to adjust the liability to £20.  However, in practice, if I lay an odds on horse I adjust the profit to say £20 so that my liability is less than £20.  On the other hand if the odds are evens or higher I adjust the liability to say £20 

    The non runner was the trainers other horse, and the horse Malina Jamila was a non runner the day before so of the 2 entries this looked best for them, as it proved. I wouldn't stop you from laying short ones but handicap 'good things' rather than non handicaps may be better.

    I rarely bet in maidens, as they are all trying to do something that they have never done before - Win. There can be many plots and sub plots in there.

    Racing Chat -Tuesday 3rd May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    NO definite selections from my selection method today.

    I have had some small stakes bets on,

    4.15 Fake - Game Line 7/2 - almost a qualifier but it is an extreme 3m5f race which I treat with caution.

    8.10 Weth - Tacitus - 16/1 EW - very speculative, a little bit of money for it and my bet was referred despite being small suggesting liabilities Has been running at various distances but drops back to 1 mile possibly his best distance. He is dropping down the handicap, and EACH WAY pays 5 places.

    1.45 Ling - The Full Bronte - 10/3 -An interesting 2 year old race where G.Boughey runs 2, although the selection is trained by Archie Watson (7wins, 3 placed from 23 runners last 2 weeks) who is coming into form again. He weakened in the last 1/2 furlong on his debut, a hood is added and can hopefully score.

     

    Racing Chat - Monday 2nd May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    RESULTS UPDATE

    Only one winner in the Trixie and one in my cover bets.  To cap it all I had to suffer a rule 4 deduction of 40p in the £1 on my winner.  Hence 2.90 was returned instead of 4.5.  Loss on the day 4.10 points.  MTD + 2.90 YTD -226.37

     

    I saw that you had a nice winner in the trixie, which doesn't count for anything on its own. I know that you always put up a trixie, but as you are covering more than one selection in a race, it 'may' be better to just do either one or the other ( I would drop the trixie and cover 2/3 in a race).

    The reason for this is, there is nothing more frustrating than getting a nice winner and nothing to go with it resulting in all stakes lost. Even with 2 winners at say 2/1 each, the double would pay 9pts for a 4pt stake... meaning you have had 4pts (trixie stake) on a 5/4 shot (would you place a 4pt bet on a 5/4 chance ?)... and need 2 winners to make it happen. It is only an all winning trixie that actually pays off... and they are not easy to find.

    You have made it clear that it is just small stakes fun, all I am trying to do is nudge you in a potentially better direction. Multiple bets have the lure of big potential wins, but that is why the bookies offer them. I have tried and struggled to make small profits myself with trixies but now rarely do a trixie except for football using 3 x odds against teams.

    Racing Chat - Monday 2nd May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I normally avoid Jamie Spencer like the plague and his record at Chester is particularly bad, with 5 winners from 60 runners and an AE of 0.58.

    Ryan Moore has a much better record with 20 winners from 71 runners and an AE of 1.15. He does particularly well when he his drawn low. When drawn higher than 7 he is 0 from 14.

    David Probert also has a good record, with 30 winners from 176 runners and an AE of 1.12.

    You're not the only one, Frank Spencer I call him. Always seems to think that he can come from out the back, and Chester definitely not the place for that.

    Racing Chat - Monday 2nd May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    I suppose the benefit of having 6 selections each way is potentially you could have 6 winning bets in 1 race. It also cuts down the length of the losing runs.

    I understand what you are saying, and I am definitely in favour of short losing runs, the downside is you are guaranteed to have 'at least' 5 out of 6 non winners. I can't buy into that. I did try it one time (not quite 6 in a race but 4 when the prices were good ).

    It's the wrong mindset IMO, trying to 'avoid losing' rather than trying to 'win'.

    I much prefer the ideology of the likes of Warren buffett " I watch pitch after pitch go by ... and then hit the one in the sweet spot", or Tony Bloom " If you find a good bet .. be aggressive".

    It's difficult to reach their levels (most likely never will), but the best advice that I personally could give, is " See where you are doing well, and see where you are losing... cut out the losing part and enjoy".

    Alternatively , if it works for you, or makes you happy, just ignore me. ?

    Racing Chat - Saturday 30th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.

    I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

    Whatever happens, I too would expect Native Trail to figure high in any ratings. 

    5 races, 5 wins, including over CD. Already a Group 1 winner, and has won on the going. Not to mention the trainer who is as hot as any at the moment IMO. I have no problem with anyone going against the favourite, but wouldn't expect him not to figure.

    Racing Chat - Friday April 29th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    My selection process doesn't highlight a single selection today unfortunately, however 3 runners attract my attention later.

    5.00 Good - Diamond Cutter - 5/2 - Trainer David Menuisier ( 2 wins, 5 places from 13 runners) is in fair form, the bonus is that he loves Goodwood (25% strike rate). The selection is now 9lb lower than its handicap debut and has Jamie Spencer taking over, I expect a good run.

    7.55 Newc - Athollblair Boy - 11/2 EW - This 9 year old is a 4 times CD winner and edging back down the weights. At the price is IMO worth an each way investment. One I'm wary of is Tathmeen (12/1) who is now 13lbs below its last winning weight and surely won't be too long before going close itself.

    8.30 Newc - Gowanbuster - 10/3 - Another one edging down the weights, ran in class 4 LTO and this is a class 6 race. Is a CD winner and I would expect a much better show tonight.

    Racing chat - Thursday 28th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Bang on said:

    4 selections from the method I use - it doesn't give big priced winners but strike rate is excellent with the vast majority odds against ( I rarely bet odds on).

    1.00 Ling - Eight of Diamonds - 2/1 - Stable in decent form, BF last time out and steps up in trip which could suit.

    1.40 Red - Tricorn - 7/4 - Runs in a claimer but has a strong chance if anywhere near last years form ( won 4 hcps in a row).

    5.45 Chelm - Soyounique - 15/8 - Won LTO and due to go up in the weights at the weekend, can win again.

    7.30 Chelm - The Bay Warrior - 9/4 - Finished 2nd LTO (beaten fav) and is a CD winner.

    Eight of Diamonds - WON  2/1 

    Tricorn - lost 2nd

    Soyounique - lost 3rd

    The Bay Warrior - WON  9/4 

    Racing chat - Thursday 28th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 selections from the method I use - it doesn't give big priced winners but strike rate is excellent with the vast majority odds against ( I rarely bet odds on).

    1.00 Ling - Eight of Diamonds - 2/1 - Stable in decent form, BF last time out and steps up in trip which could suit.

    1.40 Red - Tricorn - 7/4 - Runs in a claimer but has a strong chance if anywhere near last years form ( won 4 hcps in a row).

    5.45 Chelm - Soyounique - 15/8 - Won LTO and due to go up in the weights at the weekend, can win again.

    7.30 Chelm - The Bay Warrior - 9/4 - Finished 2nd LTO (beaten fav) and is a CD winner.

    Racing chat -weds 27th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    If your fear of backing a loser is greater than your desire to back a winner you will never win long term.

    Too true, a month or so back I hit a sticky patch and ended up reducing my stake.... hit a couple of winners and thought WTF am I doing. Either hit it hard and be aggressive or take a break. Decided to be aggressive and I'm back on track.

    If you can't place your normal stake (whatever that is) .. is it really a bet ?

×
×
  • Create New...