geoffrey craig

415 bev 
Crown Princess  8.0 4/1 
Arranmore    7.8  11/2 
Tangled     7.2 
Bavarges   7.2 
3pt wins top 2 

During the first lockdown my attention turned to Australia and I was posting flat racing tips every Saturday from March to November. What I had never really done before though was pay real close attention to Australian jumps racing, but discovered that there was money to be made from it. With there not being a huge amount of races a year, plus a relatively small pool of horses I thought that it could easily become another part of my betting armour. So I am going to attempt to cover the whole season and see if I can do as well this time around. The season starts with 3 races at Warrnambool on Monday morning.
Race 1 (1.25am)
A BM125 steeplechase gets the season underway and we have 5 runners. Ascot Red only had 1 run over jumps last season and he won the same race at Ballarat in August for the 2nd year running. Both wins were on a Heavy10, but he has gone close on a quicker surface both over jumps and flat. Has had a much needed prep run on the flat because his 1st up record is shocking and has a good chance here. Lucques tends to run well enough, but he does find it very hard to get his head in front. Zatagilo hasn't won since June 2018, but his last 2 jump starts last season were good 2nds and he has had a prep run on the flat. Newbury shows glimmers of promise, but didn't show a great deal last season so I'm fairly happy to pass him over. Steam Roller pulled up lame at Casterton on his last hurdle start in June. He has done well on the flat wince winning twice including a BM70 at Moonee Valley. He makes his chase debut here and trialled OK over them recently although he wasn't asked for much of an effort. He does have to give 7kgs to Steam Roller, but I think Ascot Red is the won to beat here. He's done well over fences and I think his experience could give him the edge of Steam Roller. I would completely rule out the two outsiders either although both do find it hard to win.
Ascot Red 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Race 2 (2.05am)
An Open Hurdle is the 2nd race and there is very little between Goodwood Zodiac, Double Bluff and Rexmount in the betting. Goodwood Zodiac has shown little in 3 flat starts recently, but they were his 1st runs since May 2019. Did well over hurdles in 2019 winning 2 of his 4 starts. Double Bluff is another not seen over hurdles since 2019 having last run in the Grand National Hurdle when disappointing although he did win a couple of times that season. He didn't appear again until New Year's Eve and ran well on the flat in a BM78 at Moonee Valley last month. Rexmont was impressive in his maiden hurdle win at Coleraine on his only hurdle start last season. He has done well in 5 flat starts this prep winning one and he has also won a hurdle trial. Of the other two Sollerane wouldn't be out if it completely having run OK in a couple of good races at Sandown and Ballarat last season after winning a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April. I was quite taken with Rexmont's win last season and think he can progress into a decent hurdler so I will take him to land this contest.
Rexmont 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill & Betfred
Race 3 (2.45am)
The 1st maiden hurdle of the season looks a pretty weak affair. You only have to look at the fact that Chenners, who has had 16 hurdle runs, is 2/1 2nd fav at the time of writing. He has shown on the odd occasion that he could land one of these at some point and he did win on the flat in January. The percentage call has to be to take him on though. My Kings Counsel just heads the betting, but he didn't look a world beater in his runs over both hurdles and fences last season. Instead I will take a small chance on one of the hurdling newcomers Hitch Hiker Jamie. The 4yo has only had 11 starts so is by fair the least exposed runner in the field. He looks like he will make a hurdler based on his trials. He won both of them and jumped well as well. I don't think it is a race to go overboard on, but to me he looks value at the prices given the front two of the market don't exactly set a high standard.
Hitch Hiker Jamie 0.5pts @ 13/2 @ Betfair and Betfred 

The last 3 match days have been pretty horrendous although at least Chesterfield did win to cover some of Tuesday night's losses. It was doubly annoying that Concord scored a 90th minute winner as not only was the bet on a draw a loser, but Gloucester ended up losing as well. Hopefully the results will make a bit more sense this weekend and I have 7 bets.
Braintree v Harrogate
This tip pretty much writes itself and is a follow up from opposing Braintree on Tuesday night. They are playing like a team who know they are going to be relegated and just need putting out of their misery. After a dodgy spell the away side have found their form again having lost just one of their last 6 and that was against an in form, at the time, Ebbsfleet. They should be odds on for to win this and keep themselves in the play-off places.
Halifax v Ebbsfleet
I had Eastleigh on my shortlist last week to beat Halifax, but didn't put them up as Halifax are a team who are very hard to beat and they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 9 games. That goal came in their only loss in their last 10 games and was a penalty as well (ironically when I put them up to draw against Chelmsford). So in 9 games they have not conceded from open play. That is some going for a pretty average side, but those points have kept them clear of the relegation zone and crucially they have started winning matches now as they have won 3 of their last 4 including that Eastleigh game. They beat Barnet 3-0 on Tuesday night and I fancy them to beat an Ebbsfleet side whose small squad is now hindering them now they have injury issues. They have only won one of their last 6 although their may well be few goals as they have only once in their last 10 games have they conceded more than 1 goal. That included against Salford last week, but on the other hand they didn't manage one shot in the whole game. With Halifax looking more of an attacking threat of late they are overpriced to win this.
Maidenhead v Sutton
Maidenhead needed a late goal to get a point against Dagenham in a game I tipped them up in, but I am backing them again because I think they offer value. I also put Sutton up on Tuesday, but they were comfortably beaten by Salford and that game made it 4 games out of 5 where they have failed to score now. They haven't won in that spell either and as I said on Tuesday Maidenhead are in decent form at the moment. I'd make them slight favourites so the current price looks fair value.
Chester v Leamington
Chester's away form is shocking. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games on their travels and they won the other. They are bottom of the last 10 away games form table as well. I point this out to highlight the fact that at home they are a very different side and they sit in 4th in the last 10 home games form table. They have won 6 and lost just twice in that period and that is one of the reasons I make them the best bet of the weekend. The other is that Leamington are in dreadful form. They have lost four on the bounce, have won just one of their last ten and not won in 8 away games. Chester are the stronger team as well and everything points to a home win. There is no way it should be odds against and the price should be nearer the 4/6 mark.
Eastbourne v Chelmsford
I did wonder about backing Eastbourne last week given Mark McGhee has taken over as manager and they were playing Hampton, a side who I think deserve to go down. However they played out a dull 0-0 draw and McGhee clearly hadn't managed to get anymore out of his players than the former manager had. They have managed 3 points from 3 draws in their last 8 games now and Chelmsford should prove too good. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and currently sit in 3rd place. I have to say I didn't think a great deal of them when I saw them at Dulwich a couple of months back and they really struggled against Gloucester a couple of weeks ago, but the 3G pitch should suit them better than the mess that is the Evesham pitch. They are a big price to win this and again should really be odds on.
Wealdstone v Welling
Welling are a team in good form having lost just 3 in their last 10, but I have to take them on here. They have actually surprised me slightly given they had to reduce the wage budget yet they have still managed to get results, however most of those have come at home. Yes they might have won their last 2 away games, but they came against a badly out of form Oxford City and a Hungerford side in the bottom 3. This is a much different proposition as the home side haven't lost in 2019 which is a run of 11 games now. Hopefully that wont come to an end on Saturday.
Merstham v Haringey (Bostik Premier)
3rd plays 2nd here and I can't understand why Merstham aren't favs to win this. They sit 3 points behind Haringey, but they are in much better form. Haringey were top and had built up a healthy lead having gone on a long unbeaten run, but that seems a distant memory as they now sit 11 points behind Dorking (great news for those who backed them after I put them up at 33s) having won just 3 of their last 9 games. Merstham on the other hand are in really good form again having got pass a little 3 game blip where they only picked up a point. They have won all 3 games since and two of those came against sides in good form themselves. I just don't see how the prices are the way they are and the home side should be around the 5/4 mark not 19/10
Harrogate 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
Chester 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2pts 131/100 with Marathon
Wealdstone 1pt @ 139/100 with Marathon
Merstham 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor

I didn't do too badly with picking out games that would be on last week, but sadly Stockport were the only winners although at least they kept losses down given the big price they were. Dorking came good in mid-week which pretty much covered Saturday's losses. No weather issues this weekend so unlike the horse racing everything should be on.
Aldershot v Eastleigh
Aldershot holding Dagenham to a draw was costly a couple of weeks ago, but I think there is value in opposing them again here. I wrote in that preview that Dagenham should only need 1 goal and it wasn't quite enough in the end, but the fact remains that Aldershot aren't heavy scorers and there is every chance Eastleigh again will only need 1 goal. Eastleigh's away form had been strong and then they only got 1 point in 4 away league games, but they bounced back a couple of weeks ago when winning at Bromley. They are in play-off contention and I'm still not sure that Waddock is going to be able to keep Aldershot up.
Chesterfield v Halifax
I shouldn't have given up on backing the draw in Chesterfield games as in the league they have drawn 4 of their 7 games since they beat Salford which was the last time I backed the draw in their matches. Those 4 have come in their last 5 and the win was only against Aldershot. They were poor in the FA Trophy last weekend and although it might not have been a priority it was still concerning they lost to Brackley so easily. Halifax have drawn their last 5 games and you can add another two if looking at their last 9 league matches. The stats clearly tell you that the draw is value here and it has to be worth a play.
Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge
God knows what is going on at Wrexham as yet again losing their manager to the Football League looks set to derail their efforts to get into the Football League. Last season they imploded when Keates left and this season things have gone downhill after Sam Ricketts move. To be fair that's not entirely true as they continued in good form to start with, but since the turn of the year they have been desperate losing 4 on the bounce and managing to only beat a Maidenhead side who managed 1 shot the whole game, 1-0. Another managerial change has happened and inexperience Bryan Hughes has come in. Apparently he is looking to improve their attacking which goes without saying given they struggle for goals. All the upheaval can't be good though and Dagenham have the potential to punish them. I really do have a love/hate relationship with Dagenham this season, but 19/5 really is too big a price to not back them here.
Nuneaton v Boston (National League North)
Pretty safe to say that Nuneaton will be playing Step 3 football next season and despite being taken over things still don't seem great off the pitch. On the pitch they have won just once at home all season and they have picked up just 2 points in their last 8 games. Boston are on the edge of the play-offs and they are pretty solid away from home this season and only lost 1-0 at Spennymoor in their last away game. That is their only defeat in their last 5 matches as well and an odds against quote looks too big for me here.
Hyde United v Matlock (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Not only have Matlock won just 4 games on the road this season they are in poor form overall. They have picked up just two points in their last 6 games and although they are only just behind their hosts in the table they are clearly struggling of late. Hyde have been in good form of late and take out the loss to Bamber Bridge their last 9 league matches have seen good performances even in the other two games they have lost which have come against good sides. They look a bet at 6/5.
Spennymoor v Bradford Park Avenue & North Ferriby v Workington
The BPA game got called off last week, but they are worth opposing here against a bang in form Spennymoor side who have won their last 4 league matches and have lost just two of their last 10. BPA have only 2 points in their last 6 games and as I pointed out last week they have let players go as it looks like the club don't really want promotion. The home side have gone odds on now, but I think they are worth doubling up with Workington. Now Workington are 1 from bottom and North Ferriby are bottom in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier, but it really should be an away win. North Ferriby have won 2 lost 22 and have a goal difference of -51. Workington are showing signs of possibly being able to stay up and they do have games in hand to help as well. North Ferriby have lost 9 on the bounce and have conceded at least twice in all of them. Workington have won their last 2 and only lost on of their last 4. This is a must win game for them if they are going to stay up whereas North Ferriby know their fate already. The double pays 257/100 with Marathon.
Eastleigh 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon & William Hill
Chesterfield v Halifax draw 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Betfred
Boston 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
Hyde United 2pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
Spennymoor/Workington 1pt double @ 257/100 with Marathon
 
 

Last Saturday wasn't good, but it does seem to be one bad day followed by one good day at the moment so hopefully that means it will be a profitable weekend. I have 6 bets in the 3 National League's this Saturday.
Maidenhead v Solihull
Maidenhead have only lost one of their last 5 games, but they haven't played anyone as good as Solihull in that spell. They lost to bottom side Braintree, Got 4 points in their two games against Aldershot, beat a severely weakened Gateshead 1-0 and then on Tuesday night beat Maidstone. So they have played 3 of the 4 teams below them in the table and a one team who were struggling to put 11 fit men on the pitch. Solihull are now in 3rd place and are just 3 points off Leyton Orient. They did need a replay on Tuesday night to overcome Halifax in the FA Trophy, but obviously with Maidenhead also playing on Tuesday that shouldn't come into it. They also landed the max bet against Gateshead in their last game easier than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should be odds on to win this so 11/10 with Betway looks a big price.
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
I was half tempted to put Maidstone up as a bet on Tuesday night, but thankfully was put off in the end as they lost 4-2 to Maidenhead. That made it 11 losses at home in the league with just the one victory. Whoever comes in as manager has to improve that home form fast. It is often said that a 3G pitch is an advantage for the home team, but it clearly isn't in this case as Maidstone have won 6 times away from home. Dagenham caused us a painful lost a couple of weeks ago after coming from 3-0 down to go 4-3 up and then draw 4-4 with Boreham Wood. Since Dagenham scored two very late goals to beat Hartlepool I have put them up 3 times as a bet and they have failed to win each time. Fair to say they owe us won again and they do look a cracking be here. Their away form has been strong winning 4 of their last 6 and only losing 1-0 to Sutton and Orient. They performed with credit at Salford in the FA Trophy last weekend and they should be favourites to win this. At Marathons' 83/50 they look a really good bet.
Salford v Gateshead
Salford have certainly bounced back from their tricky spell where it looked like they may have fallen out of contention for the title. So on the back of 4 losses on the bounce they then went and beat Wrexham and Leyton Orient without conceding a goal, which was important for them as defensively they had looked very suspect in recent weeks. Gateshead might not be quite as weak as they were against Maidenhead or Solihull, but they have lost manager Steve Watson to York in the meantime. This could hardly be a tougher game for the new manager given Salford have only conceded 13 goals at home losing just one and obviously they have such an impressive team. I think this could be a fairly easy win for the home side as I don't think Gateshead are anywhere near to a side who are 8th in the table at the moment. I think they can overcome the -1 handicap which is 17/10 with Betway.
Bradford Park Avenue v Blyth Spartans
Picking up just 1 point in their last four have meant BPA have fallen from the top spot in the National League North table. It was a poor loss last week to FCUM as well given they are in the relegation zone and had a few players missing. This game should be even harder as well given Blyth haven't lost in 10 league games now. Strangely enough their last defeat was to FCUM. They were superb in the FA Trophy last week beating Boreham Wood and they have recovered nicely after a very poor start to the season. I would have these two much closer together in the betting than the bookies have them and the 23/10 with BetVictor is well worth taking.
AFC Telford v Kidderminster
Telford have very similar home form to Salford in that they have only lost once and conceded just 12 goals. Their away form looks like it will stop them being possible title winners, but they are obviously bang in the play-off hunt. The one team they lost to at home was Bradford whilst they were flying so there is nothing wrong with that at all and they really ought to be shorter than the 8/5 they are with William Hill. The prices make little sense really given Kiddie are 6 points behind their hosts having played a game more. As I have mentioned a few times on here in recent weeks they have been in awful form for weeks now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and a win over lowly Hereford was the positive result in that spell. Not surprisingly they sacked their manager last week, but they still lost to Boston and they really do look in free fall at the moment. In my view Telford should be close to even money to win this so they look a fantastic bet.
Truro v Weston-Super-Mare
Ignore the fact Truro lost 5-0 to Stockport in the FA Trophy last Saturday as they played a strong team in good form plus they were pretty much down to the bare bones. They had players cup-tied as well as injured and suspended and they will be able to put out a much stronger team on Saturday. Not only that but Weston are a million miles away from being Stockport. These two teams played each other in the previous round of the FA Trophy and Truro won 4-0. That was their first game back in Truro and they are now there full time. Truro are pulling themselves away from the relegation zone and I think they will be safe. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and their 4 defeats were against Oxford City, Torquay twice and Welling. Weston are nowhere near the level of those 3 and I would be shocked if they didn't go down. There is just enough in the price at Marathon of 53/50 to make the home side a play here.
Solihull 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Salford -1 1pt @ 17/10 with Betway
Blyth 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
AFC Telford 5pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
Truro 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
 
So on Twitter and the message below people have been letting me know about the Telford drift. I have been told that Kidderminster were also heavily backed last Friday before the Boston game and we obviously know how well that gamble turned out! Telford were backed after I tipped them up so some people have got a bigger price on Kidderminster thanks to me. This is far from the first time it has happened to one of my strong bets and it will be Asian money. The Asians base their bets purely on data and I actually like it when they have a different view to me mainly because it allows us to get a bigger price, but also because I am usually on the right side of the result. One that sticks out is last season when I was big on Aldershot to win at Dagenham in a teatime game on TV. This was the week when Dagenham announced they were in trouble and had sold a few players. Clearly the Aisian's took none of this into account as on Saturday afternoon all the money was on Dagenham. Aldershot duly won. Now I obviously can't guarantee Telford will win tomorrow, but what I can guarantee is they are huge value at 2/1 which is freely available with a few bookies including Bet365. I have had two Kidderminster fans on Twitter tell me they have no idea why anyone would want to back them and the fact they are even money for an away game at a team who have only failed to win 4 games at home season is just bizarre especially when you add into the mix their current form. What on earth the Asians use to come up with their bets I don't know but they would be better off doing more homework. 
I don't usually go in again when the price drifts, but plenty of punters do and there is nothing wrong with going against the crowd (given I often back the outsider it works for me) or in this case going against a few people in Asia! Based on the current price I am now bumping Telford up to a max bet. Basically if they had been 2/1 last night when I did my preview I would have put them up as a max bet so I am now adding a further 2 points on them. They might not win, but that price is a huge error and Telford should be the 11/10 shots.

New Year's Day could hardly have gone any better and it was a cracking start to 2019. Hopefully that will continue on the first Saturday of the year and I have 6 bets.
Chesterfield v Ebbsfleet
Martin Allen may have gone, but Chesterfield have gone back to drawing again. They have now drawn both games since he got the sack after losing 4-0 to Solihull. I don't think they will go down as any team who can go unbeaten for so long can't be that bad, but they clearly need to start picking up 3 points. I don't think they will do that here and I fancy Ebbsfleet. As I mentioned on New Year's Day Ebbsfleet are flying at the moment and were really impressive in beating Braintree on Tuesday. Granted they are the worst side in the division, but even so the way they went about beating them was particularly impressive. They are top of last 10 games form table at the moment and I think they should be favourites to win this. 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Boreham Wood
Backing Dagenham a week ago didn't pay off, but they are again a bizarrely big price to win this. They did lose 1-0 to Barnet and then lost by the same scoreline to Orient on Tuesday, but they are clearly still in good form despite those two defeats. I can't understand why they aren't favs for this. Boreham Wood have only won 2 away games all season and the last of those was back on September 18th. Granted they have drawn the same they have lost (6) and they have drawn 5 of their last 6 on their travels, so some people might want the draw onside here. In my view though Dagenham are overpriced to win the game and I am happy to take them to get the 3 points. 
Blyth Spartans v Alfreton (National League North)
Blyth have been flying in recent weeks and haven't lost in 9 games in the league. They had a tough start to the season, but all of a sudden they now look play-off contenders. They have won 6 of their last 8 and the two draws came in the two games against Spennymoor over Christmas. Alfreton have shown a little more since their 7-1 thrashing by Spennymoor. They drew against Stockport, got 4 points over the two Boston games and also lost to Southport. That's not a bad return, but with Blyth in such good form they really should have the edge in this one.
Tonbridge Angels v Brightlingsea Regent (Bostik Premier)
I opposed Tonbridge on Boxing Day when Folkestone beat them 3-1 at a big price and they then went on to lose 3-0 to Carshalton last Saturday. I think it is worth opposing them again here especially as they face an in form team in the shape of Brightlingsea. Those two defeats for Angels mean they have lost 7 of their last 8 games and Regent have won 5 of their last 6. It seems to me that this is one of those games where bookies have priced it up on league positions rather than actual form because it is pretty hard to make a case for the home side at such short odds and they are well worth taking on again.
Kings Lynn v Leiston (Evo-Stik Southern Premier Central)
I make it 15 games unbeaten for Kings Lynn now and it is a shame for them that they had the wrong manager at the start of the season and that Kettering and Stourbridge have pulled away, because they clearly should be in the title battle. They are up to 3rd but they look too far behind the other two to catch them. Still it wont stop them trying and they should be more than capable of beating Leiston. Granted they haven't lost in 5, but on the other-hand they have only won 2 of their last 9 games and they now face one of the best teams in the division.
Bamber Bridge v Grantham (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Fair to say it has been a bit of an up and down season for Grantham. They were very good at the start then woeful and at the moment they have re-found their form again having only lost one of their last 5. They have won 3 of them including beating Basford and Gainsborough which were decent efforts. I think they are over priced here to beat a Bamber Bridge side who have only won two of their last ten and have only won one of their last 5 games at home
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 103/100 with Marathon
Brightlingsea Regent 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor
Kings Lynn 3pts @ 24/25 with Marathon
Grantham 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor

Good to be back to form on Boxing Day as it can be a tricky day with some surprising results and although there were some across the divisions at least I found 4 winners out of 6 and finally I land a 4pt selection with Woking. I have 7 bets for Saturday.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Barnet
I must admit after they got lucky against Hartlepool when I put Dagenham up and then only drew against a ten man Halifax at home when I put them up as a 4pt tip I wondered if Dagenham were as good as their form suggested. Of course after that Halifax effort they have now beaten Ebbsfleet in the Trophy and then Salford and Leyton Orient in the space of a few days. Not only that but they came from a goal down against both of them. I just hope that I am not putting them up too late, but there is no way they should be as big as there to beat Barnet at home and I would have them no bigger than 5/4 at the very least. Barnet have lost 4 of their last 6 league games including to Boreham Wood on Boxing Day and Dagenham should win this if they can back up the last two wins.
Ebbsfleet v Eastleigh
Eastleigh blew a 2 goal lead on Boxing Day when I put them up against Havant, but they did go down to 10 men which wouldn't have helped late on. They should have seen the game out still and will be disappointed in that point. Even so as I highlighted in the Boxing Day preview Eastleigh's away form is strong and I think they are over priced to beat Ebbsfleet. Granted Ebbsfleet have only lost one of their last 10 games, but they lost to Fylde last Saturday and they haven't been playing the strongest sides in the division. This will be tougher than most of those 10 games and Eastleigh look a sporting play at the prices.
Havant & Waterlooville v Bromley
As mentioned above Havant got a point against Eastleigh and they might just be capable of getting all 3 points against a badly out of form Bromley side. They have lost 6 of their last 9 league games and have won only 2 of those against Hartlepool and Maidstone last Saturday. They have won just twice away in the league all season and lost again on Boxing Day at Sutton. Havant's only two defeats in their last 9 games have come against Dagenham and Salford and they have been pretty solid at home this season. They should be favs for this game in my view.
East Thurrock v Dartford
East Thurrock have won just 4 games all season and scored 17 goals in the process. They are clearly a bad side and lost again to Concord (whose away form has not been good) on Boxing Day. Dartford will fancy their chances of bouncing back from a 2-0 at Welling. Their only other defeat in their last 7 league games came against Torquay and they played well in that game before going down 2-0. They are beating the lesser sides in the division and hopefully they can do so again here.
Weston-Super-Mare v Bath
I had the great pleasure of watching Weston v Gloucester on Saturday and that is said with tongue firmly in cheek. It was a dire game played between two terrible sides. It is no surprise that Weston are bottom of the table as they are a poor team who really struggled to do anything great with the ball in the final 3rd of the pitch. It has been so long since Gloucester won a game in the league I have forgotten what it feels like and the fact Weston couldn't do anything much with the possession we gave them says plenty about how good they are. Bath are unbeaten in 6 away games now and did well to come back from 2 down on Boxing Day against Chippenham to draw 2-2 and then hold on with 10 men. Bath really should be beating them on Saturday and I struggle to see how they can be odds against. 
Southport v Alfreton
Southport continued their flying form on Boxing Day beating Chester 3-0. As I have written recently they are finally showing why I put them up to win the league and they are easily one of the best sides in the division at the moment. Alfreton did finally get a win after a long time on Boxing Day winning at Boston, but this will be tougher and Southport should probably be odds on to take this so the 5/4 is value for me.
Stockport v Kidderminster
Amazing that Kidderminster's only win in the league in their last 6 matches was when I took them on the other day against Brackley. I then backed them against Curzon last Saturday as I thought that win showed they were back in decent form, but they clearly aren't as a point against Curzon wasn't great and then they lost to Hereford on Boxing Day. Stockport's only loss in their last 10 league games came against Blyth, who themselves have only lost once in their last 10 league games. They had a cracking win against Altricham on Boxing Day and they look a good price to win again on Saturday in this game against two former league clubs.
Dagenham 3pts @ 15/8 with Marathon and Bet365
Eastleigh 1pt @ 43/20 with Marathon
Havant 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon
Dartford 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Bath 3pts @ 57/50 with Marathon
Southport 2pts @ 5/4 with BetVictor and Betfred
Stockport 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

Saturday was a case of so close yet so far. None of the teams lost their games and having caught up with what happened in the games I think only the Stockport match is the only one where the team we were on didn't deserve the 3 points. It continues the frustrating run of form though which is annoying. Boxing Day is always a busy day of football and I have 5 bets throughout the leagues.
Wrexham v Salford
The fact Aldershot's keeper got the man of the match award tells you all you need to know about their game with Wrexham as they couldn't get past him. Back at the Racecourse though I think they can pick up 3 points on Saturday and at the very least are value to do so. Only Leyton Orient have won there this season and even then it took two late goals to nick it. With Salford under performing at the moment this could be a good chance for them to go above them in the table. I was surprised they lost to Dagenham on Saturday and they probably didn't deserve to, but having gone a goal up they really should have put the game to bed. This will be a much tougher game for them and having lost two league games on the bounce it might just be the right time for Wrexham to be facing them. Betway go 2/1 about a home win and I would make Wrexham slight favs for this.
Havant & Waterlooville v Eastleigh
Big local derby this, but I fancy the away side to come out on top. Eastleigh's away form is much better than their away, but they managed to even win at home on Saturday when coming from behind to beat Harrogate 2-1 which was a very good result. Eastleigh had won 5 away games on the bounce prior to their 2-0 lose at Wrexham in their last league game away, but as pointed out above their is no disgrace in that. Now Havant have won 4 home league games on the bounce scoring 16 goals in the process, but they have played the bottom 3 sides and Halifax who have only won one away game all season. This is a huge step up in opposition compared to those 4 and they are suffering for injuries going into this game. They got a solid draw at Hartlepool on Saturday, but they suffered 3 injuries in the process. I think Eastleigh's price of 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred offers fair value.
Woking v Hampton & Richmond (National League South)
Not sure there is a great deal of value around at Step 2 on Boxing Day, but this match really sticks out for me as I really fancy the home side. Hampton surprised me when they beat Welling recently but hopefully we can get or money back here. They were well beaten by Torquay on Saturday and I still think they are a side who might get sucked into a relegation battle. Having faced the top team they now have to face the 2nd team in Woking who were superb on Saturday. Yes Billericay have lost a few players, but they still have a really strong side and Woking were really impressive in beating them 4-0. That had been their toughest test for a while in the league but they overcame it with ease and they are now unbeaten in 6 having won 5 of them. I think Woking should be at least 4/6 for this so the fact they are even money with Marathon surprises me and looks huge value.
Lancaster v Workington (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Lancaster started the season in really poor form, but they are working their way away from the relegation zone and they have lost just 3 in their last 10 league matches now. They very nearly beat South Shields on Saturday as well, but having scored in the 87th minute the away side levelled in the 90th. Workington have won just 3 games all season and just one of those have come in the last 10 games. Away from home they have picked up just 2 points all season and things won't have been helped by the fact both central defenders were sent off after the final whistle in the 3-2 defeat to Scarborough on Saturday. BetVictor's 7/5 about a home win looks well worth taking.
Stafford v Nantwich (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Nantwich are top of the table and although that is partly because they have played more games than some of those below them they have still lost just 3 league games this season and only one of those have been in the last 10 games. Their only away defeat of the season came against South Shields in their first away game of the season. Stafford had gone 6 home games without a win before beating Hednesford in their last home match, but that doesn't say much as they have only picked up 1 point in their 6 games and won just 1 of their last 10. I'm surprised that Nantwich aren't shorter than 7/5 (BetVictor) for this as they look by far the most likely winners.
Tonbridge Angels v Folkestone Invicta (Bostik Premier)
The away side look a huge price at 9/4 (Marathon and BetVictor). Angels started the season very strongly, but lately things have been mostly miserable. They have lost 5 out of their last 6 games and although they sit in 5th position they look anything but play-off contenders at the moment. They haven't played a league game since December 11th so they will be fresher given Folkestone played at the weekend, but on the other-hand they will be rusty having not played a league game for 2 weeks and given Invicta are in good form this is a very tough first game back. They have only lost to top of the table Haringey, who are really flying at the moment, in their last 6 games and they have won 4 of them. Granted their away form as they have lost 5 of their last 7 on the road, but they have a real chance here of picking up 3 points and I would have them shorter than 9/4.
Wrexham 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway
Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Woking 4pts @ Evs with Marathon
Lancaster 2pts @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Nantwich 2pts @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Folkestone 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon and BetVictor 

The last two Saturday's have been poor and hopefully we can get some Christmas money on Saturday especially as I fancy some of the bets strongly. The Wrexham price has not surprisingly shortened although they have for some reason drifted back out slightly. I still think the price is value at the current odds if you haven't got involved. It doesn't seem that Aldershot are going to sign anyone although they are hoping they will have 11 fit players. Team news will be very interesting that is for sure. There are 6 other bets.   Alfreton v Stockport (National League North)
I really don't get the price of Stockport here as they should be firm favourites for me. Stockport are flying at the moment and have only lost one league game in their last 10. They thumped Ashton 6-0 on Tuesday night and prior to that the beat bang in form Spennymoor away from home. In between those two games they also won in the FA Trophy in a big local derby against Altrincham. On the other hand Alfreton are looking in shocking form at the moment. The only two teams they have beaten in their last 10 league games have been the bottom two sides in the division Ashton and Nuneaton. Last time out Spennymoor put 7 past them and they are looking a poor side at the moment. 2/1 is available if you can get it, but even the next best of 7/4 with Betfred looks a cracking price.   Ashton v Southport (National League North) As mentioned above Ashton are in the bottom 2 at the moment and have only won 1 and drawn 1 in their last 9 league games and that 6-0 thumping by Stockport on Tuesday was their 4th loss on the bounce. I was a little surprised by the strength of Southport's team on Wednesday in a County Cup game given they played the Tranmere match on Monday, but I guess it beats training and of course none of them played in the FA Trophy game last Saturday. As I have mentioned plenty in recent weeks they have shown massive improvement and this looks a great game for them to pick up another 3 points in. 21/20 with BetVictor is the best price.   Kidderminster v Curzon Ashton (National League North) I took Kiddie on a couple of weeks ago as they had been out of form, but they bounced back in good fashion to beat Brackley 2-0. That is their only game so far in December so as much as they will be fresh they might also be rusty, but they had two weeks off before the Brackley so hopefully that won't get in the way. Freshness over this busy period could be crucial and they start off with a very winnable game. Curzon haven't won in 6 league games now and their last 2 league games have both been away losses as well. I think the home side should be odds on here is 103/100 with Marathon is the right side of value for me.   Concord Rangers v Chippenham (National League South) I mentioned the other week about Concord's superb home form ahead of their game against Hampton and they duly won 4-0 which took their home league record to won 8 drawn 1 and lost 1.They are worth backing at odds against in this match as Chippenham's form has taken a dip having lost their last two league games to Weston and Hungerford. On their day they are capable of beating most in the division, but they look of their game at the moment. Their away form has seen them win only 3 as well so it is all about the home team for me here.   Truro City v Wealdstone (National League South) Take out a shocker when losing 4-0 to Oxford City and Truro are one of the most improved sides in the division. That is their only defeat in their last 7 league games and they thumped Weston in the FA Trophy last weekend. I would make them favourites to beat a Wealdstone side who are struggling for victories at the moment. They have only won 2 of their last 8 games and one of those was against Gloucester City a game I was at. It was a pretty poor game played out by two fairly poor sides so I am not hugely surprised they have struggled for wins since then. They were dumped out of the Trophy by lower league opposition last week and Truro look in better nick right now.    Marine v Farsley Celtic (Evo-Stik Northern Premier) Farsley certainly preformed with credit against Telford last week in the Trophy and they showed they could match teams in the league above. They sit in 3rd in position and given the games they have in hand over the teams above they are in prime position for the top spot. They have won 7 of their last 9 league games and drawn the other two. It should be another 3 points here and I can't believe that Farsley are odds against. It has been 11 league games since Marine last picked up 3 points and they blew a 2-1 lead last week. I have only seen Bet365 price this game up so better than 11/10 might appear, but that looks a good price.   Stockport 4pts @ 7/4 with Betfred Southport 2pts @ 21/20 with BetVictor Kidderminster 3pts @ 103/100 with  Marathon Concord 2pts @ 117/100 with Marathon Truro 2pts @ 23/10 with BetVictor Farsley Celtic 3pts @ 11/10 with Bet365

Last Saturday was pretty dire stuff, but at least the one bet on Tuesday night was a winning won thanks to Dorchester's thrashing of Staines. The National League sides enter the FA Trophy this weekend and there will be a few resting players ahead of a busy Christmas period. I have 5 bets plus a treble and I also have 3 bets in the league action.   Previews to follow   AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic Two teams who are in the promotion hunt in their respective leagues although Farsley look the more likely to be in the automatic promotion picture in the Northern Premier League and they have been really impressive in recent weeks. Indeed they are now on an unbeaten run of 9 games in the league. They got a really good win against a good Basford side last Saturday and I think they are capable of causing an upset here. Granted Telford have only lost once at home in the league this season and that only came in their last home game against league leaders Bradford, but I think Farsley are more than capable of making life hard for their hosts and they are over priced in my view. Aldershot v Bedford
Aldershot's home form is what was keeping them clear of the relegation battle in the National League, but even that has deserted them of late as they have lost their last 2 home games. They are looking over their shoulder's again and I don't think they will fancy this game at all. They are struggling for fit defenders and they are a team under pressure right now given they have only picked up 1 point in their last 5 games. Bedford played in front of 65 people last week (away at bottom side North Leigh) so this will be rather different and they are a step 4 side so that is a big difference, but that is why they are such a big price. They are having a decent enough season so far siting in 6th place. Yes it is a big ask, but this is a real chance for them to cause a huge upset and I think they offer value at the prices.   Barnet v Bath City Barnet are having a good run in the FA Cup and they might be thinking this is a competition they could do well in, but I think they might get knocked out at the first time of asking. Barnet have not been great at home in the league this season having won just 3 times and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games in the league. Now Bath have only won one of their last 6 league games, but they have only lost 3 of their last 10 so it is hardly like they are in bad form. I think like most National League South sides on their day they are capable of beating anyone in the league and in turn if Barnet fail to turn up at home again then I can see Bath being capable of causing an upset and are a spot of value.   Leyton Orient v Beaconsfield Traditionally clubs who are going for promotion to the Football League have wanted out of the FA Trophy asap. I can't believe that Justin Edinburgh wont rest players for this game and he really won't care if they make it through to the next round or not as it is all about getting promotion. Now obviously in theory they should be winning this, but at a huge price I am happy to take a chance on Beaconsfield. They have only lost 3 league games all season and if Orient do put out a mainly reserve team then Beaconsfield have every chance of causing an upset here. It is worth considering that Orient also lost to in the FA Cup at the first time of asking.    Maidenhead v Oxford City Maidenhead briefly threatened to improve their woeful form after beating Sutton and drawing with Ebbsfleet, but they have gone back to their poor performances in the last couple of games. There is a strong chance this will be a league game next season as I struggle to see even Alan Devonshire keeping them up. City are inconsistent as is proven by the fact they have won 9 league games and lost 8. That puts them level on points with Bath and as I mention above they are another one of those teams who on their day can be very good as they were when nearly beating Tranmere in the FA Cup. This is a great chance for them to cause an upset and go on another cup run.   FA Trophy treble Not a bet I would usually put up, but given I have so many bets already I thought I would group together the 3 sides at just over evens who I fancy to win on Saturday. Eastleigh are one of the teams I think could end up in the Final as they look a decent side who are in and around the play-offs, but realistically this might be their better chance of getting to Wembley. They travel to Hemel Hempstead and it looks a decent chance for them to get through. Truro v Weston-Super-Mare is a relegation battle in the league, but they also play each other in the Trophy. Truro are playing this back at their old ground so should get plenty of support and they are in decent form at the moment. They did lose 4-0 to Oxford City last Saturday, but they bounced back by beating Slough on Tuesday and that loss is their only one in 7 league games. They look in better nick than Weston at the moment. Dulwich travel to lower league opposition in Wingate and they are struggling in the Bostik Premier and it should be an away win.   Hampton & Richmond v Welling (National League South) Hampton are in really bad form having lost 7 of their last 9 league games. They struggled to beat a 10 man East Thurrock two weeks ago and then played out a dire 0-0 draw with a Gloucester City side who are in even worse form. Welling were well beaten by Torquay last week, but there is nothing wrong with that given how good they are looking right now and it is only their 2nd loss in their last 10 games. This looks the perfect chance for them to get back to winning ways and they should be odds on in my opinion.   Lewes v Margate (Bostik Premier) Lewes are flying at the moment and were impressive in winning on Wednesday over Brightlingsea. That win put them on top of the table and they have now won 8 of their last 10 league games and I like their chances of picking up another 3 points here. Margate are too inconsistent to be challenging for the play-offs this season and they have only won 2 of their last 8 games. Lewes are the better side and they look worth backing at a shade of odds against.   Poole v Chesham (Evo-Stik Southern Premier South) Two in form sides here, but it has been priced up by league positions rather than the fact they are both in form. Chesham were awful at the start of the season, but they have changed things around and now things are on the up as they have only lost one of their last 7 league games and they have won 4 of their last 5. Poole have only lost one of their last 8 so like I say both teams are in form, but at 4/1 I think their is definite value in backing the away side as they are clearly better than their current league position.   Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor Bedford 0.5pts @ 10/1 with BetVictor & Betfred Bath City 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365 Beaconsfield 0.5pts @ 14/1 with BetVictor Oxford City 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor, Betfred & Bet365 Truro/Dulwich Hamlet/Eastleigh 1pt @ 9.1/1 with Betfred Welling 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Betfred, BetVictor & William Hill Lewes 2pts @ 23/20 with Betfred Chesham 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365

Another winning Nap on Tuesday night and December has got off to a solid start. I have bets in 7 games across the 3 National League divisions on Saturday.
Boreham Wood v Leyton Orient
In typical style the only game Orient have failed to win in their last 5 league games was when I put them up against Aldershot and they drew 0-0. It was frustrating as it is the only recent good performance Aldershot have put in in the league of late. They are now unbeaten in 9 league games and have won 6 of them. I have long said the league title will go to either them or Salford and it is games like this they need to make sure they are picking up 3 points in. Now Wood are quite hard to beat at home and have only lost twice in the league at home all season, but they have both come in their last 5 games including in their last one against Dover. Overall though they have won just 2 of their last 10 league games and beating Maidenhead and Bromley at home hardly suggests they are capable of beating Orient here. They look a fair way off the side who reached the play-off final last season. Orient should be odds on and Betfred are 21/20 about the away side picking up 3 points in the game live on BT Sport at 12.35
Chesterfield v Salford
Draw!
Well like in the Bromley game I think it is wise to cover two results here. Martin Allen has let a few players either go or put on the transfer list this week as he looks to change things around. They didn't do too badly against Grimsby in the FA Cup and they will be disappointed by the goals they conceded as both were a bit fortunate. What it did show yet again though is they struggle to get goals despite the fact they are putting in a fair bit of effort. I know they have been drawing games, but you don't go on an unbeaten run like this by being a bad side and they are capable of making life hard for Salford. I have to back the draw again as I said I would until they stopped drawing league games. However, Salford should really be winning this and they ought to be odds on really like Orient in the game above. Betfred are 11/10 about them and I will have the bigger bet on that whilst also covering the draw at 5/2 with Bet365 and Betway.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Halifax
Well Dagenham's win for us last week was rather dramatic and hopefully they won't need two 90th minute goals to win this week, because I really fancy them to beat a poor Halifax side. Halifax's only win in their last 10 league games came in a 1-0 win at home to Dover. Away from home they have been mainly poor. I put them up to get a point in their last away game against Ebbsfleet and they stunk the place out losing 4-0. Their only away win came on the opening day of the season when they beat a Braintree side who have basically been in the bottom two all season. They have managed the odd good point on the road including at Solihull, but I think they will struggle to get anything out of this. Now we got away with the Dagenham bet last week as Hartlepool deserved to win, but it meant Dagenham kept their great run going. They have won 6 of their last 7 league games including their last 4 and hopefully it will be another one here. They are obviously nothing like the side they were earlier in the season. Dagenham should be odds on for me and the 23/20 with Betfred and Betway looks cracking value.
Gateshead  v Bromley
Another one at the shorter end of the market as I like Gatshead at even money in this game. Gateshead have only lost 3 home games this season and they came back to back. At least one of them they shouldn't have lost and they were all by 1 goal. Now they have only won once in their last 5 league games and have lost 3 of them, but strangely enough only one of those games was played at home and I am expecting them to improve for being back at the International Stadium. Bromley have only won once in their last 6 games and that was a 4-0 drubbing of Harltepool at home. Bromley's only two away wins in the league have come against sides who are poor at home in Ebbsfleet and Maidstone. Also both sides are fellow Kent teams and who knows their might be something in that. Gateshead should be capable of racking up another home win here.
Sutton v Solihull
Sutton stopped me from getting 3/3 in the league bets last week when getting a late equaliser at Fylde, but hopefully we can get them beat here. Granted they have only lost 2 of their last 8  home league games and only 4 in the league all season, but they have also only won 2 in that same spell and the 3g pitch doesn't seem to be in their favour this season. One of those wins as well was the freak 3-0 victory over Wrexham. As Solihull proved against Blackpool in the FA Cup last week they really are a very good side this season. I am just kicking myself for not having backed them on the handicap or something at the start of the season, because the quality of their squad meant they should never have been favourites to go down. I was concerned about Tim Flowers because his managerial career prior to this has not been good, but he has done a superb job. Now their away form doesn't always quite match their home form, but the 4 defeats have come at Fylde, Harrogate, Orient and Barnet so there is no disgrace in that. Marathon are a quarter of a point bigger than anyone else at 11/4 and that price is way too big as for me they are the better side and despite Sutton not losing all that often they have a much better chance of beating them than those odds suggest.
Bradford Park Avenue v Southport
Southport have been doing good things for us of late and they were superb against Tranmere in the FA Cup last weekend more than deserving their replay. I am sure the prospect of possibly meeting Spurs could be distracting, but their league form has not dipped despite the Cup run and given the replay is still going to be over a week away hopefully they can put it to the back of their minds here. They did need a late goal to beat Boston last time, but they have proven they have the quality to beat the best in the division and BPA are currently the best in the division. They haven't lost in 7 league games having won 5 of them and usually I wouldn't really oppose a team in that sort of form, but I just don't think Southport are as far away from them as the betting suggest so I am happy to take a chance at 7/2 with Bet365.
Kidderminster v Brackley
Hard to know what is going on at Kiddie as they have had a real dip in form. Maybe a couple of weeks off will help iron out the issues, but they have lost their last 3 home games in the league and then you can add a defeat at home to York in the FA Trophy into the mix as well. They have only won 1 of their last 6 league games as well. Brackley have only lost two league games in their last 10, including last week against Altrincham, but they have also drawn half of them so they aren't quite winning as many as maybe they should be. After losing their first two away games they have only lost one more so they are solid on the road and with Kiddie not performing well at the moment I am happy to take a chance on the away win here at 23/10 with Marathon and Bet365.
Hemel Hempstead v Dulwich Hamlet
Final bet of the day comes in the National League South and the away team look over priced here. Hamlet are only in 17th place in the league, but I do think they are better than that and sometimes they aren't quite getting the points their performances deserve. They lost 2-0 to Torquay last week although they held their own against the league leaders. Dulwich have only won once in their last 7 league games, but they beat Welling in the FA Trophy and Torquay are the only team to beat them by more than one goal. In their last 4 games Hemel have managed to beat Gloucester and East Thurrock which is hardly saying an awful lot and then lost to Wealdstone and Concord. As I have mentioned a few times when talking about the National League South this is a league with very small margins between winning and losing and I have seen nothing to suggest that Hemel should be odds on shots to beat Dulwich. Bet365 are over half a point bigger than anyone else at 15/4 and that is value for me.
Leyton Orient 2pts @ 21/20 with Betfred
Salford 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfred and 1pt on the draw @ 5/2 with Bet365 and Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 23/20 with Betfred and Betway
Gateshead 2pts @ Evs with Bet365, Betfred and Betway
Solihull 1pt @ 11/4 with Marathon
Southport 1pt @  7/2 with Bet365
Brackley 1pt @ 23/10 with Marathon and Bet365
Dulwich 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365

Chesterfield v Grimsby
Regular readers of my stuff will know I am going to put up the draw here. Chesterfield's amazing draw record is now getting a bit of a higher profile, but still no one apart from me seems to be suggesting to actually be backing them to draw. Even though they did beat Billericay in the replay we are still in profit on them in this competition backing them to draw. They weren't at their best on Tuesday against Bromley and needed a late penalty to get the point, but they have it in them to cause Grimsby some problems. Grimsby are improving and had a very good win against Tranmere on Tuesday night, but away from home they have only won twice in the league all season. There is every chance this could be another draw and who knows it might well be 1-1 again!
Barnet v Stockport
Both this sides caused pretty big upsets in the 1st Round with Stockport winning at Yeovil and Barnet beating Bristol Rovers in a replay. I think Stockport have a real chance of making it to the 3rd Round here, a round not that long ago they would have entered the competition in. Barnet are sill a bit inconsistent and weren't great against Gateshead last Saturday. That made it 3 league defeats in their last 4 games. Stockport didn't have the ideal prep for this when losing 3-2 on Tuesday night to an improving Blyth side, but that was their first league defeat in 7 games and they had a great win over Chorley in the FA Trophy last Saturday. They were 6/1 to beat Yeovil so for them to be only a point lower to win this makes them decent value for me.
Tranmere v Southport
Tranmere had a right old scare in the 1st Round as Oxford City should have beaten them. The replay was pretty routine as City weren't anywhere near the level they were in the first game. They face a local derby here and I think Southport are decent value to cause an upset. They were really disappointing at the start of the season, but they are finally showing the form which made me want to back them for the National League North title at the start of the season. They beat Boreham Wood in the 1st Round 2-0 and they are now unbeaten in 7 games. Tranmere of cause beat Wood in the play-off final last year and they are just outside the play-offs in League 2. Their home form is strong and they have lost just once at home. It could be that the scare they got in the 1st Round might mean they are more on it here, but Southport are good enough to take advantage if they aren't and 15/2 is a big price for me.
Chesterfield v Grimsby 1pt draw @ 23/10 with Betfair
Stockport 1pt @ 5/1 with Betfred
Southport 1pt @ 15/2 with William Hill, Betfred & BetVictor
 

I don’t no. The main reason is people will get different prices from what I put them up at sometimes shorter and sometimes bigger. I think there can be a lot of willy waving with it as well. If I was charging for it then I would obviously put a rough profit up, but it’s free and I think if people want to know the history they can look through my posts on here. I could say I was 100pts up and no one is going to check it. If I wasn’t making a profit then I wouldn’t do it because I know people put their hard earned cash down. Indeed when things haven’t gone well in the past I have taken a back seat. 

November was a decent month profit wise and December (as long as the weather plays ball) is obviously a very busy month so fingers crossed the decent form can continue. I have 3 FA Cup bets for Sunday and they are all on that thread. I have 5 bets in the 3 National League's for Saturday.
AFC Fylde v Sutton
It was good to finally be on the right side of a bet on Fylde away from home as they had a pretty comfortable time of things in beating now mangerless Hartlepool on Tuesday night. At home they have won 8, drawn 1 and lost just twice and they were to Salford and Leyton Orient. The draw was against Harrogate so we are talking about them only dropping points to the top teams in the division and although Sutton have only lost 4 times they haven't been reaching the levels they did last season. Their last 3 league performances haven't been great although they did come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Braintree on Tuesday night, but then Braintree are bottom. They lost to Slough on penalties in the FA Cup and Fylde look a cut above to me especially given how strong they are at home. I think they should be odds on so am happy to get involved at 11/10.
Hartlepool v Dagenham & Redbridge
I'm not sure Hartlepool have got either managerial appointments right since they dropped out of the Football League. Fair play to Matthew Bates for keeping them in the division last season especially in very tricky circumstances, but after a solid start things have gone downhill fast and they have lost 6 league games on the bounce. Not surprisingly he got the sack on Wednesday and the club need to get the next appointment right so they can at least give themselves a solid base for next season. In the very short term I am not sure things are going to get any better on Saturday and Dagenham look a hell of a bet at 7/2 to pick up another 3 points. Since the takeover Peter Taylor has been able to spend money and the team has been improving. They have won 5 out of their last 6 games and the only loss was a 1-0 defeat to Sutton. They have only conceded 4 times in their last 6 games and they have been a lot more solid at the back as well as being clinical at the other end of the pitch. These two sides should be much closer to each other in the betting.
Nuneaton v Blyth Spartans
Like Hartlepool Nuneaton are also without a manager at the moment and I think things are going to take some time before the new owner has any effect on the playing side of things. The three draws they got in their last 8 league games were decent efforts, but they lost their other 5 games and 4 of those were by at least 2 goals. Blyth didn't have a great start to the season, but they have shown a big improvement in recent weeks, bar a couple of bad defeats. In their last 8 league games they were their only two losses and they won 5 of those games including against an in form Stockport on Tuesday night. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 away games, but have picked up 7 in their other 3 which is more proof of their improvement. They should be favourites to win this so the 2/1 is a cracking bet in my view.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
Spennymoor did us a good turn last week and after a tricky start they really put Halesowen to the sword to beat them 8-2. Now this game will obviously be harder, but Kidderminster's form has really gone downhill in recent weeks. They have only won one of their last 6 league games and York beat them 3-1 in the FA Trophy last week. To be fair their away form has been better than their home form and they have only lost once on their travels, but they drew against Nuneaton in their last away game and I think Spennymoor are looking much the better side at the moment, thus they look a fair bet.
Truro v St Albans
The other team in the double last week were Truro and I am also sticking with them this week back in league action. As I mentioned last week they have been an improved side of late and they are unbeaten in their last 5 league games. They look a decent bet here as I think they should be favourites. St Albans games have been very exciting as their league games have seen 64 goals already, yet strangely their last league game saw them draw 0-0 against Gloucester. That was their first point in 4 games though and it was a poor game. Since then they have been beaten in a replay by Weymouth in the FA Trophy and they look out of sorts at the moment. With a long trip to Torquay ahead of them I think this could be another game they end up with nothing.
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1.5pts @ 7/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Marathon
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 2/1 with 888sport
Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Truro 2.5pts @ 19/10 with Bet365

Another profitable day on Saturday and we move on to the final set of fixtures for November where we basically have a full fixture list in the National League which is where my focus is.
Chesterfield v Bromley
Draw!
Well it might not be as simple as that. Bromley are looking pretty poor at the moment and this does look a very winnable game for Chesterfield who despite their long unbeaten run did slip into the relegation zone on Saturday. They are clearly a better side than that and this is a much easier game than Saturday's. However I did think the Havant game was one they could have won and indeed they should have done, but again their lack of scoring goals was the issue in a 0-0 draw. I am going to back the draw again though because the stats suggest it is the value play yet again. How on earth other tipsters still haven't bothered putting it up I don't know. In this match though I am also going to cover the home win because it is a shade of odds against so would give us a tiny profit if it happened and I struggle to see Bromley winning the match.
Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
I have had my fingers burnt a few times when putting up Fylde away from home as they have only one twice and drawn 7 times. I am going to back them again though as I think Hartlepool look vulnerable at the moment. They have lost 5 league games on the bounce including to struggling Dover on Saturday. What probably didn't help was the fact Gillingham took them to extra time in the FA Cup on Wednesday night and I can imagine that game had left a mark. What they need is a week off, but they aren't going to get that and you would hope that Fylde attack them early on as Dover did on Saturday. Fylde scored two goals in the 88th minute to overturn a 1 goal deficit against Boreham Wood on Saturday and they were a bit off their game, but it is always uplifting to win a game in that style and if they could turn this away draws into wins then they might be capable of getting in the title picture. 
Leyton Orient v Aldershot
Tuesday nights do tend to throw up some strange results and if Aldershot even get a point in this game it would be one of the stranger ones of the season. They are woeful on the road having won just once and drawn just once scoring just 5 times in 10 games. They even managed to lose at home to Barrow on Saturday and like Hartlepool the FA Cup replay they had which went to penalties might have been behind the lackluster performance. Orient are beginning to look like they might be hard to catch at the top of the table. They have lost just once all season and have conceded just 13 goals all season whilst scoring 42. They got a huge win on Saturday against Wrexham when Bonne got a crucial goal 4 minutes from time. He deserves to be playing in the Football League and there is every chance he will be doing that with Orient next season. Aldershot lost 4-0 to Salford in their last away match and this should be a comfortable night for Orient and they should cover the -1 handicap which looks a cracking bet to me.
Maidstone v Eastleigh
I wonder if Maidstone might have one eye on the FA Cup match at the weekend as they weren't great on Saturday when I tipped them up. Granted a sending off didn't help, but they were already a goal down at the time and ended up losing 5-2. They did beat Macclesfield at home in the FA Cup a couple of weeks ago, but they have only won once at home in the league all season and I don't expect them to get a 2nd here. Eastleigh are strong away from home and I am beginning to think that they could be play-off contenders as they are creeping into contention. They are 5 games unbeaten now and are playing well. It probably wont be a goalfest, but I do expect the away side to nick it as they are the better side.
Salford v Harrogate
I am going to oppose Salford again because as I wrote on Saturday I think they are going to lose a league game sooner rather than later. It could well have been Solihull on Saturday as Solihull did score but it was ruled out. At the time of writing I haven't seen the goal yet, but it was a contentious decision as the ref had to consult with his linesman after originally giving the goal. Harrogate started slowly against Braintree on Saturday, but found their stride after going a goal down and ran out easy 3-1 winners in the end. They are only 3 points behind their hosts on Tuesday with a game in hand and have lost just two games so far this season in the league. It obviously is no gimmie, but I do think they should be shorter than the price they are as I would have them around 2/1 to win this so they are certainly worth a bet.
Chesterfield v Bromley 1pt draw @ 127/50 with Marathon and Chesterfield to win 1pt @ 21/20 with Betfred
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 127/100 with Marathon
Leyton Orient -1 3pts @ 7/5 with Betfair and Betfred
Eastleigh 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
Harrogate 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
 

Yesterdays:
Another winner!
Total Staked 21
Returns 7.59
Todays:
Wolves 16.35 Snaffled
Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

I've been wondering if my strategy for looking at the big handicaps on the flat might be applicable to the jumps
obviously there is no draw so that's one variable that can't be included
On the flat I like to concentrate on the youngest two age groups ……. so 4 and 5 year olds in a 4yo plus race and 3 and 4 year olds in a 3yo plus race...….. the reason being that they're more likely to be unexposed and improving than horses that have been racing for a few years. Not clear how I could apply this to jumps where there tends to be a much bigger age range and where horses might be best at a later age. …….. maybe skip the youngest ones. Trial and error I think
Anyway I've picked the big handicap chase, the 3.40, at Carlisle for a trial run ……..
gone for 7 and 8 year olds, Distance winners ……. and didn't have to go any further to be left with 2 runners
3.40 at Carlisle
Sharp Response 5/1
Mahler Lad 14/1

Constantinople
Ran 5th in a maiden at Leopardstown on Thursday night behind an impressive winner also making his debut.
But the above Aidan O'Brien colt was green as grass looking around in the early stages under Wayne Lordan who is excellent at educating young horses.
Indeed the jockey never changed his hands all the way in the straight allowing Constantinople to find his feet in the horses own time
Afterwards the pundits were raving how the winning jockey could not pull his horse up at the end.,but what they failed to notice was another jockey was having the same problem..Wayne Lordan

Using HRB to shortlist the Irish Cesarewitch (Last 21 runnings and last 10 runnings).
 
Breeding -
All winners reported as being UK or Irish bred by HRB.
Last 21 years - 21 winners from 380 runners (5.53%) compared to 0 winners from 61 runners (0.00%)
Last 10 years - 10 winners from 205 runners (4.88%) compared to 0 winners from 36 runners (0.00%)
Slight reduction in %'s could mean more UK/Irish bred runners or fewer non UK/Irish bred runners ran in the last 10 years, but looks a half decent filter to apply.
 
Age -
Last 21 years - 3, 4 and 5yo's produced 18 winners from 260 runners (6.92%) compared to 6yo's and older which produced 3 winners from 181 runners (1.66%)
Last 10 years - 3, 4 and 5yo's  produced 9 winner from 130 runners (6.92%) compared to 6yo's and older which produced 1 winner from 111 runners (0.9%)
Using 3, 4 and 5yo's as a filter here as it looks consistent.
 
Several runners here had their last race over a different code (national hunt to be exact), so lets see if anything shows up here.
Last race code -
Last 21 years - Last time out National Hunt runners produced 2 winners from 113 runners (1.77%) compared to Flat/AW runners which produced 19 winners from 328 runners (5.79%)
Last 10 years - Last time out National Hunt runners produced 1 winner from 54 runners (1.85%) compared to Flat/AW runners which produced 9 winners from 187 runners (4.81%)
 
Last time out placing (Flat/AW/NH) -
Last 21 years - 20 winners from 305 runners placed 7th or better last time out (5.83%) compared to 1 winner from 98 runners that placed 6th or worse (1.02%)
Last 10 years -  9 winners from 185 runners placed 7th or better last time out (4.86) compared to 1 winner from 56 runners that placed 6th or worse (1.79%)
 
These four filters would have produced 8 winners fom the last 10 years (or 16 winners from the last 21 years).


 
If these four filters hold up, then the likely winner could be from the above 6 potentials.

Looking at the sprint handicap at Goodwood and applying the same filters as I would for the big sprint handicaps in the 'Ttrends' thread
age 4/5
draw low to middle
D win
this left me with 4 but 3 of them appear best on soft ground and it hasn't rained yet in the south east, though I guess it might do tomorrow
Anyway the one remaining is also a CD winner which I like …… and an EW price !
Good 4.55 - The Daley Express ew 14/1 wm hill
 

Racing channel on free view this morning for 2 hours or so
Luck on Sunday with guests mulrennan, mousse, Graham Bradley amongst others

240 York 
Alermarayoum   299
Uae Prince   297
Mikmak   294
These 3 are clear Of rest so I'll try 4pt wins top 2 at 9/2 And 6/1 
425 York 
Comacho chief 288
East street revue 285
Watchable  281
Dark shot 281 
Top 2 4pt wins 6/1 And 12/1 
535 York 
Gin in the inn  288
Tresorior   286
Fendale  286 
Classic pursuit  283
Top3 I think 5pt wins at 10/1 14/1 And 16/1