Non-League Predictions > March 9th

[Darran]

The last 3 match days have been pretty horrendous although at least Chesterfield did win to cover some of Tuesday night's losses. It was doubly annoying that Concord scored a 90th minute winner as not only was the bet on a draw a loser, but Gloucester ended up losing as well. Hopefully the results will make a bit more sense this weekend and I have 7 bets.

Braintree v Harrogate

This tip pretty much writes itself and is a follow up from opposing Braintree on Tuesday night. They are playing like a team who know they are going to be relegated and just need putting out of their misery. After a dodgy spell the away side have found their form again having lost just one of their last 6 and that was against an in form, at the time, Ebbsfleet. They should be odds on for to win this and keep themselves in the play-off places.

Halifax v Ebbsfleet

I had Eastleigh on my shortlist last week to beat Halifax, but didn't put them up as Halifax are a team who are very hard to beat and they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 9 games. That goal came in their only loss in their last 10 games and was a penalty as well (ironically when I put them up to draw against Chelmsford). So in 9 games they have not conceded from open play. That is some going for a pretty average side, but those points have kept them clear of the relegation zone and crucially they have started winning matches now as they have won 3 of their last 4 including that Eastleigh game. They beat Barnet 3-0 on Tuesday night and I fancy them to beat an Ebbsfleet side whose small squad is now hindering them now they have injury issues. They have only won one of their last 6 although their may well be few goals as they have only once in their last 10 games have they conceded more than 1 goal. That included against Salford last week, but on the other hand they didn't manage one shot in the whole game. With Halifax looking more of an attacking threat of late they are overpriced to win this.

Maidenhead v Sutton

Maidenhead needed a late goal to get a point against Dagenham in a game I tipped them up in, but I am backing them again because I think they offer value. I also put Sutton up on Tuesday, but they were comfortably beaten by Salford and that game made it 4 games out of 5 where they have failed to score now. They haven't won in that spell either and as I said on Tuesday Maidenhead are in decent form at the moment. I'd make them slight favourites so the current price looks fair value.

Chester v Leamington

Chester's away form is shocking. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games on their travels and they won the other. They are bottom of the last 10 away games form table as well. I point this out to highlight the fact that at home they are a very different side and they sit in 4th in the last 10 home games form table. They have won 6 and lost just twice in that period and that is one of the reasons I make them the best bet of the weekend. The other is that Leamington are in dreadful form. They have lost four on the bounce, have won just one of their last ten and not won in 8 away games. Chester are the stronger team as well and everything points to a home win. There is no way it should be odds against and the price should be nearer the 4/6 mark.

Eastbourne v Chelmsford

I did wonder about backing Eastbourne last week given Mark McGhee has taken over as manager and they were playing Hampton, a side who I think deserve to go down. However they played out a dull 0-0 draw and McGhee clearly hadn't managed to get anymore out of his players than the former manager had. They have managed 3 points from 3 draws in their last 8 games now and Chelmsford should prove too good. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and currently sit in 3rd place. I have to say I didn't think a great deal of them when I saw them at Dulwich a couple of months back and they really struggled against Gloucester a couple of weeks ago, but the 3G pitch should suit them better than the mess that is the Evesham pitch. They are a big price to win this and again should really be odds on.

Wealdstone v Welling

Welling are a team in good form having lost just 3 in their last 10, but I have to take them on here. They have actually surprised me slightly given they had to reduce the wage budget yet they have still managed to get results, however most of those have come at home. Yes they might have won their last 2 away games, but they came against a badly out of form Oxford City and a Hungerford side in the bottom 3. This is a much different proposition as the home side haven't lost in 2019 which is a run of 11 games now. Hopefully that wont come to an end on Saturday.

Merstham v Haringey (Bostik Premier)

3rd plays 2nd here and I can't understand why Merstham aren't favs to win this. They sit 3 points behind Haringey, but they are in much better form. Haringey were top and had built up a healthy lead having gone on a long unbeaten run, but that seems a distant memory as they now sit 11 points behind Dorking (great news for those who backed them after I put them up at 33s) having won just 3 of their last 9 games. Merstham on the other hand are in really good form again having got pass a little 3 game blip where they only picked up a point. They have won all 3 games since and two of those came against sides in good form themselves. I just don't see how the prices are the way they are and the home side should be around the 5/4 mark not 19/10

Harrogate 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

Halifax 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor

Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor

Chester 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon

Chelmsford 2pts 131/100 with Marathon

Wealdstone 1pt @ 139/100 with Marathon

Merstham 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor

Edited March 8, 2019 by Darran

[yossa6133]

I've got a good feeling about these, already put Chester and Harrogate in a treble with Norwich 5.7/1 and will follow some of the others.

[SP1]

Please keep in mind that Maidenhead have lost their key centre-back Kilgour who's now returned to Bristol Rovers. Maidenhead had conceded 23 goals in six games just before he joined on loan. Since he joined, he was in the starting eleven for 17 consecutive games (in which Maidenhead conceded 17 goals) and even scored three very important goals. With Obileye instead of Kilgour in their central defence along with Massey, I'd say they're significantly weaker at the back and Devonshire should probably be odds on to mention Kilgour in his post-match comments today. Also, some stats: Maidenhead have been scoring 1.17 goals per home game on average and conceding 1.72 goals per home game on average. Sutton have been scoring 1.28 goals per away game and conceding 1.28 goals per away game as well. Maidenhead have been having 4.3 shots on target per home game in average, while they've been allowing their opponents 4.7 shots on target. Sutton have been having 4.3 shot on target per away game, while the home teams in their away games have been having 4.3 shots on target as well. I'd say that the odds currently available are about right.

[cc135]

Maidstone United vs Havant (2) DNB 2.05 1u

Stones missing two reg mids and replacements are really inexperienced. Hawks with their best possible lineup, have the edge here imo.

Daggers vs Bromley (2) DNB 1.78 1u

Struggled alot before deciding on this bet, just coz Bromley cost me much whenever i place my faith on them, but today Daggers missing reg mid Robinson and playing some defenders out of place in midfield, prompts me to chance on Bromley, who has their best possible lineup.

 

[yossa6133]

I just need a Chester goal to land my treble with Harrogate 3-0, covered myself with the draw and Leamington.

[yossa6133]

That Leamington goal with 10 men hurts 

[Darran]

Can’t believe Chester couldn’t hold on against 10 men as that made the difference between a losing day and a winning day. Harrogate bolted up and Maidenhead got a great late winner as well to prove they were value after all after keeping a clean sheet as well.

Edited March 9, 2019 by Darran

[Tony23]

@Darran Im following you for a couple months . I want to say thank you for all your bets and mini analyses every week . Todays my big bet was Harrogate win . Its shame that Chester couldnt hold the lead , but thats the beauty of football . Keep going man .

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @Tony23