Non-League Predictions > December 29th

[Darran]

Good to be back to form on Boxing Day as it can be a tricky day with some surprising results and although there were some across the divisions at least I found 4 winners out of 6 and finally I land a 4pt selection with Woking. I have 7 bets for Saturday.

Dagenham & Redbridge v Barnet

I must admit after they got lucky against Hartlepool when I put Dagenham up and then only drew against a ten man Halifax at home when I put them up as a 4pt tip I wondered if Dagenham were as good as their form suggested. Of course after that Halifax effort they have now beaten Ebbsfleet in the Trophy and then Salford and Leyton Orient in the space of a few days. Not only that but they came from a goal down against both of them. I just hope that I am not putting them up too late, but there is no way they should be as big as there to beat Barnet at home and I would have them no bigger than 5/4 at the very least. Barnet have lost 4 of their last 6 league games including to Boreham Wood on Boxing Day and Dagenham should win this if they can back up the last two wins.

Ebbsfleet v Eastleigh

Eastleigh blew a 2 goal lead on Boxing Day when I put them up against Havant, but they did go down to 10 men which wouldn't have helped late on. They should have seen the game out still and will be disappointed in that point. Even so as I highlighted in the Boxing Day preview Eastleigh's away form is strong and I think they are over priced to beat Ebbsfleet. Granted Ebbsfleet have only lost one of their last 10 games, but they lost to Fylde last Saturday and they haven't been playing the strongest sides in the division. This will be tougher than most of those 10 games and Eastleigh look a sporting play at the prices.

Havant & Waterlooville v Bromley

As mentioned above Havant got a point against Eastleigh and they might just be capable of getting all 3 points against a badly out of form Bromley side. They have lost 6 of their last 9 league games and have won only 2 of those against Hartlepool and Maidstone last Saturday. They have won just twice away in the league all season and lost again on Boxing Day at Sutton. Havant's only two defeats in their last 9 games have come against Dagenham and Salford and they have been pretty solid at home this season. They should be favs for this game in my view.

East Thurrock v Dartford

East Thurrock have won just 4 games all season and scored 17 goals in the process. They are clearly a bad side and lost again to Concord (whose away form has not been good) on Boxing Day. Dartford will fancy their chances of bouncing back from a 2-0 at Welling. Their only other defeat in their last 7 league games came against Torquay and they played well in that game before going down 2-0. They are beating the lesser sides in the division and hopefully they can do so again here.

Weston-Super-Mare v Bath

I had the great pleasure of watching Weston v Gloucester on Saturday and that is said with tongue firmly in cheek. It was a dire game played between two terrible sides. It is no surprise that Weston are bottom of the table as they are a poor team who really struggled to do anything great with the ball in the final 3rd of the pitch. It has been so long since Gloucester won a game in the league I have forgotten what it feels like and the fact Weston couldn't do anything much with the possession we gave them says plenty about how good they are. Bath are unbeaten in 6 away games now and did well to come back from 2 down on Boxing Day against Chippenham to draw 2-2 and then hold on with 10 men. Bath really should be beating them on Saturday and I struggle to see how they can be odds against. 

Southport v Alfreton

Southport continued their flying form on Boxing Day beating Chester 3-0. As I have written recently they are finally showing why I put them up to win the league and they are easily one of the best sides in the division at the moment. Alfreton did finally get a win after a long time on Boxing Day winning at Boston, but this will be tougher and Southport should probably be odds on to take this so the 5/4 is value for me.

Stockport v Kidderminster

Amazing that Kidderminster's only win in the league in their last 6 matches was when I took them on the other day against Brackley. I then backed them against Curzon last Saturday as I thought that win showed they were back in decent form, but they clearly aren't as a point against Curzon wasn't great and then they lost to Hereford on Boxing Day. Stockport's only loss in their last 10 league games came against Blyth, who themselves have only lost once in their last 10 league games. They had a cracking win against Altricham on Boxing Day and they look a good price to win again on Saturday in this game against two former league clubs.

Dagenham 3pts @ 15/8 with Marathon and Bet365

Eastleigh 1pt @ 43/20 with Marathon

Havant 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon

Dartford 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

Bath 3pts @ 57/50 with Marathon

Southport 2pts @ 5/4 with BetVictor and Betfred

Stockport 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

[gruja]

Darran, what are your thoughts about Torquay and Brackley being good combo material? You said your Gloucester is dire completely and Torquay seems just too good for this league  Regarding Brackley, its just pick against Nuneaton ofcourse. Would love to hear more from you

[Darran]

7 hours ago, gruja said:

Darran, what are your thoughts about Torquay and Brackley being good combo material? You said your Gloucester is dire completely and Torquay seems just too good for this league  Regarding Brackley, its just pick against Nuneaton ofcourse. Would love to hear more from you

Not sure I would want to be backing a team at odds on who haven't won in 7 league games albeit they have been playing better teams than Nuneaton. I would be amazed if Torquay don't win though and to be honest I am surprised they aren't even shorter in the betting, The only danger is if they ease off because they think they don't have to turn up to beat us.

[buga00]

i will make combo with leyton orient, Salford and one or 2 games from your tips Addpea 

[bartonbank]

7 hours ago, buga00 said:

i will make combo with leyton orient, Salford and one or 2 games from your tips Addpea 

.buga00, why would you take a punt on Salford? they have lost three on the bounce, including to a poor Chesterfield, and Barrow have hit some form. Salford were awful against us on Saturday...we usually struggle to score more than 1.

[Darran]

Can’t say I’d be in a rush to back Salford either.

[buga00]

18 hours ago, bartonbank said:

.buga00, why would you take a punt on Salford? they have lost three on the bounce, including to a poor Chesterfield, and Barrow have hit some form. Salford were awful against us on Saturday...we usually struggle to score more than 1.

Correct @bartonbank , it´s only my opinion , when Salford lost on next game usually i bet on them ........4 loses on road it´s too  much i think .....

Edited December 28, 2018 by buga00

[Darran]

1 minute ago, buga00 said:

Correct @bartobank , it´s only my opinion , when Salford lost on next game usually i bet on them ........4 loses on road it´s too  much i think .....

But they aren’t playing well which is a big issue especially in defence which has looked ropey all season. 

[bartonbank]

18 minutes ago, Darran said:

But they aren’t playing well which is a big issue especially in defence which has looked ropey all season. 

Frankly,  at odds of almost 3/1 I think Barrow are a play. 

[Darran]

4 hours ago, bartonbank said:

Frankly,  at odds of almost 3/1 I think Barrow are a play. 

It did go through my mind when I was looking at the odds on Wednesday night.

[allthethings]

Let me offer a little info about league tendencies, which as you might know is one of the things I keep track of. Virtually very year the three Christmas week fixtures are close together (depends on where in the week Christmas falls), and you'd expect some rotation and unlikely results. For my purposes, it's helpful to know whether leagues tend toward wins or draws.

National league games tend to be straightforward on Boxing Day (few big dogs get results), lean slightly toward outright wins in the sandwich game (away dogs of up to 5.99 are 12-10-13 over the past decade) and tend rather heavily toward draws in the New Year's games (6-11-14).

Barrow jumped out at me, but home dogs are less clear-cut over the holidays. They tend toward draws rather than outright wins during the season in general (this season they're 5-7-13). Home dogs of up to 5.99 are 4-2-5 on Boxing Day, 1-1-2 in the sandwich game and 2-1-3 on New Year's, so there is a lean toward outright wins during the holiday week.

On average, the expectation would be that two of the big dogs (Maidstone, Halifax, Braintree, Barrow, Dover) will get a result tomorrow. It will pay to guess right.

[allthethings]

Salford away this season as a big favorite: 2-2-1, Orient 3-1-2

Halifax as a big dog away 0-3-3, Maidstone 2-1-5, Braintree 2-3-8

[Darran]

Having been strong after I put them up there has been a bizarre drift on Dagenham and they can now be backed at 2/1! Makes no sense to me but can only be the Asians for some reason wanting to back Barnet. Whatever happens Dagenham should be favs for the game and the price is wrong.

[sammydubs]

19 minutes ago, Darran said:

Having been strong after I put them up there has been a bizarre drift on Dagenham and they can now be backed at 2/1! Makes no sense to me but can only be the Asians for some reason wanting to back Barnet. Whatever happens Dagenham should be favs for the game and the price is wrong.

Suspended on Betway?!

[buga00]

well , i´m watching Barrow game on BT sports and with 30 minutes game the ref did not want to score 2 penaltys against Barrow ans score one against Salford wich i had serious doubts , and gives red card to Salford player (  it´s was good decision ) . Salford was playing much better and the ref simply ruined the game...i´m stop watching the  game because no true on this game with this ref

Edited December 29, 2018 by buga00

[buga00]

1 hour ago, sammydubs said:

Suspended on Betway?!

what you think is happening  @sammydubs ? asiatic mafia ??

[cc135]

Boreham Wood vs Maidstone United (1) -0.75 1.91 1u

Turgott still missing for Maidstone and that is a big blow as he is their main goalscoring threat. Borehamwood making three changes, but at home, should still win this eventually.

Dover Atheltic vs Leyton Orient (2) 2.02 1u

Good lineup from Leyton. Dover had a good game over Maidstone, but Leyton shld have enough quality to respond to their loss last match.

Gateshead vs Halifax Town (1) 1.92 1u

Gateshead are strong at home, scores easily and with their best lineup today, should win this. Halifax got three points in last game vs Harrogate, but in truth, were second best for most of the game.

Good Luck!

 

 

[allthethings]

13 hours ago, allthethings said:

Let me offer a little info about league tendencies, which as you might know is one of the things I keep track of. Virtually very year the three Christmas week fixtures are close together (depends on where in the week Christmas falls), and you'd expect some rotation and unlikely results. For my purposes, it's helpful to know whether leagues tend toward wins or draws.

National league games tend to be straightforward on Boxing Day (few big dogs get results), lean slightly toward outright wins in the sandwich game (away dogs of up to 5.99 are 12-10-13 over the past decade) and tend rather heavily toward draws in the New Year's games (6-11-14).

Barrow jumped out at me, but home dogs are less clear-cut over the holidays. They tend toward draws rather than outright wins during the season in general (this season they're 5-7-13). Home dogs of up to 5.99 are 4-2-5 on Boxing Day, 1-1-2 in the sandwich game and 2-1-3 on New Year's, so there is a lean toward outright wins during the holiday week.

On average, the expectation would be that two of the big dogs (Maidstone, Halifax, Braintree, Barrow, Dover) will get a result tomorrow. It will pay to guess right.

This was one of those days where I guessed right, as I won four of five. I took Maidstone (5.25) and Braintree (3.84), to win, and after I missed it early, I took Barrow to win at 3.50 and got super lucky, since draw is what my system suggested. I also had the draw on Dover (3.70). My loss was taking Halifax to win, as they ended up drawing. In any event, all five favorites failed to win outright today.

 

[buga00]

1 minute ago, allthethings said:

This was one of those days where I guessed right, as I won four of five. I took Maidstone (5.25) and Braintree (3.84), to win, and after I missed it early, I took Barrow to win at 3.50 and got super lucky, since draw is what my system suggested. I also had the draw on Dover (3.70). My loss was taking Halifax to win, as they ended up drawing. In any event, all five favorites failed to win outright today.

 

nice call @allthethings  congrats

[Darran]

A late Stockport goal meant it was a profitable end to a tough December. That's it for 2018 which on the whole has been a very good one. Here's to more of the same in 2019.

[buga00]

Just now, Darran said:

A late Stockport goal meant it was a profitable end to a tough December. That's it for 2018 which on the whole has been a very good one. Here's to more of the same in 2019.

congrats @Darran ,  my tip from Salford miss as you said. Wish you a  great 2019 and until next year ....

[allthethings]

Dunno where to put this, so I'll put it here. Holy mother of God, what a crazy day this was. Here's the record of all underdogs (away or home) to a favorite of 2.00 or less, by league:

Prem 2-1-1

ECL 2-4-3

L1 1-3-1

L2 1-5-1

ENL 3-2-2

Big dogs went 9-15-8 today. That's crazy.

The trend in the New Year's matches is toward draws...but then the trend in 'midweek' matches (between Boxing Day and New Year's) is supposedly wins. Today you'd have made a fortune betting draws.

I was on outright wins in League Two, which is traditionally a league that throws up outright wins. Not this year. I lost with both Grimsby(won, didn't draw) and Crawley and Yeovil (drew, didn't win), and I didn't take Notts County because they went up over 5.00 in the last 15 minutes before kickoff. I'm ahead in all leagues but League Two. Well, and Premiership, where my hunches seldom work out. Newcastle today, for example.

Edited December 29, 2018 by allthethings
forgot Yeovil