Racing Chat - Thursday Oct 25th

[BillyHills]

815 Chelmsford

Mezmaar 4/1 bet365

Low grade stuff here but a chance is taken with Mezmaar who used to be a Kempton specialist but the last twice has shown some decent form here. He won after a break back in July and then was a decent second last month. He is still a couple of pounds below his mark this time last year and trainer Mark Usher is in good form at the moment. All in all the 4/1 looks decent value to me.

[Trotter]

Been having a good run over the last few weeks at picking out once raced two year olds who might showed improved form on their second outings

Generally this would involve them having shown signs of promise, eg running on late, travelling well, being in front until fading late...…… that sort of thing.

It helps if they're dropping down the track grades, say from Newbury to the all weather

It helps if the trainer has a modus operandi of giving horses a considerate introduction and leaving something to work on, Other trainers of course like to have them ready to go full steam on debut

It helps if some horses from their debut race have come out since and run well

Today's selection is Homesick Boy at Chelmsford 5.45, currently 25/1

Noted running on late at Windsor first time out, trainer Ed Dunlop leaves a lot to work on ……….. not much has run since from the race so that's a negative and there's a lot of two year old races at Windsor so they can be a bit average. Not one to go overboard about but EW at 25/1. Watch out though because there's just 8 runners ,,,,, a NR could scupper EW betting

[Trotter]

I've been wondering if my strategy for looking at the big handicaps on the flat might be applicable to the jumps

obviously there is no draw so that's one variable that can't be included

On the flat I like to concentrate on the youngest two age groups ……. so 4 and 5 year olds in a 4yo plus race and 3 and 4 year olds in a 3yo plus race...….. the reason being that they're more likely to be unexposed and improving than horses that have been racing for a few years. Not clear how I could apply this to jumps where there tends to be a much bigger age range and where horses might be best at a later age. …….. maybe skip the youngest ones. Trial and error I think

Anyway I've picked the big handicap chase, the 3.40, at Carlisle for a trial run ……..

gone for 7 and 8 year olds, Distance winners ……. and didn't have to go any further to be left with 2 runners

3.40 at Carlisle

Sharp Response 5/1

Mahler Lad 14/1

[Trotter]

1st and 2nd in the Carlisle race, winner drifted to 7/1