BillyHills Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 455 Goodwood Glenamoy Lad 7/1 bet365 Looks a big price 7/1, withdrawn yesterday due to the ground and this looks less competitive anyway. Decent run in the Stewards Cup and then was backed into favouritism at the Curragh last time, missed start and not mucked about with afterwards and comes here on a recovery mission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Irish cesarewitch Cliffs of dooneen 302 Brazos 299 Rockabill 298 These 3 are clear Of rest so I'll go ew top.3 at big prices Cliff of dooneen 5pts ew 12/1bet365 Brazos 5pts ew 20/1 b365 Rockabill 5pts ew 25/1 lads skylark2009 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 Good luck Richard, another tough handicap My 'Mug Punter' Ratings richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Using HRB to shortlist the Irish Cesarewitch (Last 21 runnings and last 10 runnings). Breeding - All winners reported as being UK or Irish bred by HRB. Last 21 years - 21 winners from 380 runners (5.53%) compared to 0 winners from 61 runners (0.00%) Last 10 years - 10 winners from 205 runners (4.88%) compared to 0 winners from 36 runners (0.00%) Slight reduction in %'s could mean more UK/Irish bred runners or fewer non UK/Irish bred runners ran in the last 10 years, but looks a half decent filter to apply. Age - Last 21 years - 3, 4 and 5yo's produced 18 winners from 260 runners (6.92%) compared to 6yo's and older which produced 3 winners from 181 runners (1.66%) Last 10 years - 3, 4 and 5yo's produced 9 winner from 130 runners (6.92%) compared to 6yo's and older which produced 1 winner from 111 runners (0.9%) Using 3, 4 and 5yo's as a filter here as it looks consistent. Several runners here had their last race over a different code (national hunt to be exact), so lets see if anything shows up here. Last race code - Last 21 years - Last time out National Hunt runners produced 2 winners from 113 runners (1.77%) compared to Flat/AW runners which produced 19 winners from 328 runners (5.79%) Last 10 years - Last time out National Hunt runners produced 1 winner from 54 runners (1.85%) compared to Flat/AW runners which produced 9 winners from 187 runners (4.81%) Last time out placing (Flat/AW/NH) - Last 21 years - 20 winners from 305 runners placed 7th or better last time out (5.83%) compared to 1 winner from 98 runners that placed 6th or worse (1.02%) Last 10 years - 9 winners from 185 runners placed 7th or better last time out (4.86) compared to 1 winner from 56 runners that placed 6th or worse (1.79%) These four filters would have produced 8 winners fom the last 10 years (or 16 winners from the last 21 years). If these four filters hold up, then the likely winner could be from the above 6 potentials. richard-westwood and geoffrey craig 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Looking at the sprint handicap at Goodwood and applying the same filters as I would for the big sprint handicaps in the 'Ttrends' thread age 4/5 draw low to middle D win this left me with 4 but 3 of them appear best on soft ground and it hasn't rained yet in the south east, though I guess it might do tomorrow Anyway the one remaining is also a CD winner which I like …… and an EW price ! Good 4.55 - The Daley Express ew 14/1 wm hill richard-westwood and geoffrey craig 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Some big races today, we have the Munster National at Limerick, Irish Cesarewitch at Navan and the famous Pardubicka over in the Czech Republic (Live on Racing UK 3.40) 340 Par: No Time To Lose (4 British jockeys including Leighton Aspell make the trip)425 Nav: Stella Mass EW (Willie Mullins has 7 runners as he goes for the Ces Double)445 Lim: Alpha Des Obeaux EW (Our Father returns after 1382 days off, last ran for David Pipe) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 8 hours ago, Trotter said: this left me with 4 but 3 of them appear best on soft ground and it hasn't rained yet i It's been raining solidly since the middle of the night …… so watch out for Goodwood. Could be ruined by lots of non runners though the race I looked at seemed to have a few soft ground horses so maybe some trainers declared in the expectation of rain BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Donnacha obrien looks to have a great book of rides today at navan, lot of shorties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 (edited) Newcross 4 25 Navan 1 pt win 9/1 P/Power Excellent Result 2 00 g/wood 1/4 pt ew 32/1 betfair P/L Account = + 117.5 pts since start date in May 2018 Edited October 14, 2018 by black rabbit update totals richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Racing channel on free view this morning for 2 hours or so Luck on Sunday with guests mulrennan, mousse, Graham Bradley amongst others BillyHills, geoffrey craig and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Irish Cesarewitch - Shortlist - Newcross Cliffs Of Doneen Rockabill Mr Everest Stellar Mass Marine One Newcross - 2nd last time in a 50 - 75 rated handicap (class 5) @ 1m 6f. The form coming out of this race doesn't look to bad, Rovetta (1st) and Days Without End (3rd) both improved to win next time out. Archive (4th) and Divine Approach (6th) both showed improved form over their next couple races improving on their placings here. Newcross could likely show improvement too here, should get the distance and low weight and claimer could help. Cliffs Of Doneen - Won at the distance and a lightly raced O'Brien 3yo. Trainer has won this twice from 8 runners in the last eight years. Wasn't disgraced last time when 7th at this level, but being lightly raced may require a few more races. Rockabill - a couple of good wins under his belt and the 2nd last time (Bay Hill) boosted the form for that race. Maybe a potential stamina issue regarding breeding for this 2m race and has yet to race beyond 1m 4f. Trained by J P O'brien, so should be respectd here. Mr Everest - Last time out winner and the 5th (Fiesole) and 7th (Awayinthewest) both won next time. Also had Brazos behind in 3rd by 1L and gives Brazos 1lb here. Stellar Mass - Topweight here and could well be in the grip of the handicapper, hasn't won since Aug 2016. Previous winners of the Irish Cesarewitch tended to carry 9-7 or less, so his weight here could be the difference to winning or placing. Marine One - Massive improvement required from this horse to win this race. Yet to win, but has shown himself capable when 2nd and 3rd over 1m 6f previously. Maybe the extra distance today will help. (Non Runner) Shortlist down to 5, so 2pts awarded each and the sum dutched for equal profits (win). Newcross @ 8/1 - 3.16pts Cliffs Of Doneen @ 10/1 - 2.58pts Rockabill @ 16/1 - 1.67pts Mr Everest @ 20/1 - 1.35pts Stellar Mass @ 22/1 - 1.24pts +18.41pts if one manages to win richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Irish cesarewitch Cliffs of dooneen 302 Brazos 299 Rockabill 298 These 3 are clear Of rest so I'll go ew top.3 at big prices Cliff of dooneen 5pts ew 12/1bet365 Brazos 5pts ew 20/1 b365 Rockabill 5pts ew 25/1 lads Crikey .....fill ya boots ..... vikki37, skylark2009, bmc and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old codger Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Another brilliant selection. Well done Richard. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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